Merchants 2009 Final

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A Presentation on the La Crosse Economy.

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Merchants 2009 Final

  1. 1. The Stimulus Package and The Local Business Owner Taggert J. Brooks, PhD Associate Professor of Economics University of Wisconsin-La Crosse
  2. 2. Postwar Recessions (1946-2008): Cumulative Decline from NBER Peak (pct) 0 1957 -1 1948 2007 -2 1953 -3 -4 -5 -6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
  3. 3. Postwar Recessions (1946-2008): Cumulative Decline from NBER Peak (pct) 0 -1 1990 2001 -2 -3 2007 -4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
  4. 4. 6.00 800 Thousands Millions 700 5.00 Continued Claims for Unemployment: SA 600 Initial Claims for Unemployment: SA 4.00 500 3.00 400 300 2.00 200 1.00 100 0.00 0 1990-Jan-06 1993-Jan-06 1996-Jan-06 1999-Jan-06 2002-Jan-06 2005-Jan-06 2008-Jan-06
  5. 5. Continued Claims - Wisconsin 200 Thousands 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
  6. 6. It is not the banks… It is consumption
  7. 7. TED Spread (3 Month LIBOR - 3 Month Constant Maturity Treasury Bill) 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 - Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08
  8. 8. Case-Shiller Index 260.0 Las Vegas 230.0 200.0 Composite 10 170.0 Minneapolis 140.0 110.0 80.0 50.0 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09
  9. 9. Average Number of Days on Market: 7 Rivers Region 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan
  10. 10. Average Price of Single Family Homes Sold in 7 Rivers Region $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 1997-Jan 1999-Jan 2001-Jan 2003-Jan 2005-Jan 2007-Jan 2009-Jan
  11. 11. Foreclosures: 7 Rivers Counties 1,000.0 900.0 800.0 Total Number of Foreclosures Filed in Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse, Monroe, Trempealeau, Vernon Counties 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 - 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
  12. 12. In Recessions… Preferences Change
  13. 13. In Recessions… People Substitute – Time for Money
  14. 14. In Recessions… People Get Healthier
  15. 15. In Recessions… Preferences Change – Temporarily
  16. 16. ars accumulate at the ports
  17. 17. Total U.S. Light Vehicle Retail Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 Imports 8.0 6.0 Domestic 4.0 2.0 0.0 Feb. '08 Jun. '08 Oct. '08 Feb. '09
  18. 18. In Recessions… Preferences Change – Permanently.
  19. 19. The Lost Decade
  20. 20. In Recessions… There are opportunities.
  21. 21. Total U.S. Light Vehicle Retail Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) 100% 90% Imports 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Domestic 20% 10% 0% Feb. '08 Jun. '08 Oct. '08 Feb. '09
  22. 22. Midwest Regular Reformulated Retail Gasoline Prices (C/gal) 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09
  23. 23. The Stimulus… A Modern Financial Version of Pascal’s Wager.
  24. 24. In Recessions… There are opportunities.
  25. 25. The Stimulus Package and The Local Business Owner Questions? March 10th 2009

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