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FrankGo_scenarioplanningperspective

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Scenario planning in the Tourism Industries

Scenario planning in the Tourism Industries

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  • Pro’s and Con’s for both, list here not complete, only examples
  • Stand out in the marketing crowd  event as attention grabber Social meaning of events: see naked ape dvd, enhance sense of community & lifestyle
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    • 1. Thailand Tourism Marketing- Mapping the Future Conference A Scenario Planning Perspective co-organized by PATA Thailand Chapter, Skal International Thailand and the Joint Chambers of Commerce Shangri-La Bangkok, May 19th, 2011 Professor dr. Frank M. Go1 1
    • 2. Agenda Where are we Where are we now? going? a. a. How will we get possibilities story there? b. c. b. c. commit blind leverage agenda spots ment Strategy a. Patterns Current scenario Preferred scenario b. Best-fit (valued outcomes) Mapping the Future Prof Frank Go, c. Scenario plans Bangkok, May,19th 20112
    • 3. WHERE ARE WE NOW?
    • 4. Media Power Influences Perceptions The international media have proven “stunningly successful in telling us what to think about." Shaw and McCombs (1977)4 4
    • 5. Thailand awareness crossed the threshold in 2010 Volume of Reports on Thailand per quarter in International news 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Before public opinion can move, a national image must cross a certain level of awareness. Thailand‟s political upheavals have reached those levels in 2010. The question for Thailand is to find a steady tourist‟ message to regain lost reputation.5 Basis: 1608 reports on Thailand in 34 international TV news media.
    • 6. Thai topics resemble war rather than tourist zone Western media portrayed Thailand as a warzone in the past five years. Here are the leading TV news topics on Thailand Social unrest Demonstrations Demonstrations Murder Social unrest Social unrest Political Crime Conflicts Insurgency 2006 Poltical resignation 2008 Domestic policy Domestic use of Tennis tournament Domestic policy military 0 20 40 60 80 0 40 80 120 Urban warfare Traffic accidents Demonstrations Political Crime Child Abuse Social unrest Assassinations National elections Traffic accidents Domestic security Accidents Accidents and tragedies 2007 2009 2010 Golf tournament Research into vaccines Diplomacy 0 20 40 60 0 20 40 60 0 100 200 300 Clearly less than optimal to convincing Western tourists to visit Bangkok en route to their holiday destinations. Baseline: 1608 reports on Thailand in 34 international TV news media.6
    • 7. “The Abhisit government gave 2,000 baht per night to tourists who were left stranded at Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports when they were seized by yellow-shirt protesters near the end of 2008.”7 7
    • 8. Asian opportunities dominated by the big three Volume and Rating of Asian investment opportunities in analyst citations China Japan India South Korea Indonesia Singapore Thailand Malaysia Vietnam 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Negative Neutral Positive China India and Japan dominate the Asian investment discussion. The advantages which make these economies positive are there potential growth, market size and engagement with the West. Thailand is seen as a potential market. Baseline: 10508 statements on Asian investment opportunities in 8 (9) financial media 20108
    • 9. Western banks comment on Thai opportunity JP Morgan Chases supported Thailand through its Sugar and Economic development analysis in 2010. 10 Most cited analysts on Thailand by Volume and Tonality Analysts in general Analysts in general JP Morgan Chase JP Morgan Chase HSBC HSBC Capital Economics Capital Economics Citibank Citibank Standard Chartered Standard Chartered Barclays Capital Barclays Capital Société Générale Société Générale Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley 0 5 10 15 20 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Most cited analysts Negative Neutral Positive Active monitoring and dialogue with analysts and journalists is a core component to national reputational risk management.9 Basis: 131 statements on Asian investment opportunities in 8 (9) financial media 2010
    • 10. Thailand suffers negative news flow Tone of quarterly International news volume on Thailand 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 The crisis pattern in Thailand‟s reporting portrayed extreme negativity; Means that the country‟s reputation for friendliness and tourism is at risk. The coverage has spikes; how to get a more positive communication flow?10 Basis: 1608 reports on Thailand in 34 international TV news media.
    • 11. International Media Set ARD Tagesthemen TVE 1 Telediario Financial Analyst ZDF heute NBC Nightly News Media Set RTL Aktuell ABC World News Financial Times ARD Tagesschau Tonight Economist Heute journal FOX CBS Evening Les Echos TF1 Journal News Ten oClock News Al Arabiyah BBC 1 Nile News Il sole 24 ore News at Ten (ITV) LBC TV Expansión BBC 2 Newsnight TRT Mint Rai 1 Al Jazeera Financial Mail SF DRS 1 Tagesschau Dubai TV SF DRS 1 Rundschau CCTV Forbes SF DRS 1 Eco Afrikaans News Wall Street Journal SF 10 Vor 10 (SABC2) Barrons English News (SABC3) ETV News Zulu/Xhosa News11
    • 12. Bangkok Metropolis sinking at a rate of about 4 inches per year. 15-20 years whole area below sea level? How to protect Bangkok from being submerged by the sea?12
    • 13. WHERE IS THE THAI STORY?13
    • 14. Current Position Growth rate: Tourism Council of Thailand cut growth target to a range of 5-8% from 8-10%. Negative influences: Slow global recovery, volatile oil prices, political problems Middle East and Africa Competitive Performance: Thailand’s Travel and Tourism Competitiveness showed drop from 39th (2009) to 41th in 2011.14 14
    • 15. Thailand’s Rank in the Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011 • Strength and Weakness  Relatively sophisticated developed clusters (34th) companies operating across the value chain.  Administration – 70th place of 139 • Threat and Opportunity  Domestic turbulence; drop 30 places in 4 years  Domestic and export markets (23rd) How to capitalize on strength and opportunity?15
    • 16. Global Competitiveness Report 2010-2011 Thailand’s Position “In addition to urgently improving its institutional framework, [Thailand] needs to step up its effort to improve its health and educational systems and encourage wider adoption of new technologies for productivity enhancements.” ”Such efforts will then buttress Thailand’s innovation potential, which will become increasingly important as it moves towards the most advanced stage of economic development.” WEF Report16
    • 17. Strategic Tourism Portfolio Assessment Cost – Benefit Ratio of Source Markets 1st Quarter 5.36 million tourist arrivals compared to 4.66 same period in 2010 TCT cut Growth rate (20-04-11) to + 5 - 8% giving Thailand 16.73 – 17.21 million visits Receipts : Bt 6.22 billion Supply Market Region Asia: 50% Primary: China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia Secondary: Cambodia, Laos Supply Market Region Europe: 34% Russia. Denmark, Finland, Italy, Sweden, eastern Europe and France + 15% Daily spend: 3.753,57 Source: TCT17 17
    • 18. What Strategic Lever Will Give TAT Advantage? What direction and scope should Thailand’s Tourism sector pursue over the long-term to achieve advantage in a changing environment through its configuration of resources and competences with the aim of fulfilling stakeholders?18 18
    • 19. Strategic Perspective Formulating Implementing Strategy Strategy Outside - in Perceptions Standards, Norms Perspective How others see us Critical Success Factors Inside – out Competencies Conditions Perspective SWOT Perspective19
    • 20. WHERE ARE WE GOING?
    • 21. 21
    • 22. Scenario Planning22 22
    • 23. What are Scenarios?  Scenarios don‟t predict the future but challenge our assumptions  Scenarios help create a map of uncertainty to identity visible and invisible forces that drive us towards the unknown future  They ask what will happen if the unexpected happens; therefore, scenarios prepare us for the unthinkable.23
    • 24. How Does Scenarios Planning Differ From Forecasting? The Present The Future The Path Forecasts Current Alternative Realities Future Images Multiple (mental maps) Paths Scenarios24 Source: SHELL
    • 25. Why use Scenarios?  There is no single answer to the question what tomorrow will bring.  Therefore, scenario builders make sets of stories that capture a range of possible outcomes, positive and frightening, expected, surprising.  They may include the same forces that are likely to persist, but describe different ways the uncertain factors are likely to play out.25
    • 26. How Far Forward Do We See? Issue Business focused Country/ focused business focused Event/Problem focused Very Short term Medium term Long term long term (2 years) (3-10 years) (11-20 years) (50 years) Together GLOBAL SCENARIOS we can make a difference Niche and High -end Markets Sustainability Long term energy, hydrogen economy Source: adapted from Shell26
    • 27. Mapping Scenarios 1. Map the certainties and uncertainties – determine what you don‟t know that you should know; 2. Widen your perspective. Routine can create blind spots; experience, training and current manners largely determine how we see the world. 3. Plan your scenarios. Determine the goals, audience, expectations, and time horizon of your scenarios. 4. Tell a story. The scenarios must form a coherent, relevant, and communicable set of stories, rather than simply list expectations and variables.27
    • 28. Global : Geographically distributed knowledge-based Society Tourism market: mismatch Match Tourism-market Local: fragmentation/isolation28
    • 29. Scenario IV: “The Traditional Comfort Zone” “If you asked someone to name 20 tourist destinations in Thailand, he or she would list the same places as a decade ago. The countrys selling points are still beautiful beaches, but key rivals like Vietnam and the Maldives have those too.” Chanin Donavanik, CEO Dusit International29
    • 30. Scenario III: “Our Traditional Paradise Lost” Thai room rates have dropped, mainly due to political squabbling since the end of 2008. The rate of five-star hotels in Thailand is about 3,000 baht per night, but in Singapore it stands at 10,000 baht.30
    • 31. Scenario II: “Thai Tourism Misfit” “The major problems of the industry are the lack of a clear vision by authorities and a shortage of cooperation among government agencies. Thai Airways International, Airports of Thailand and the Ministry of Tourism and Sports work separately.”31
    • 32. Scenario I: “Your new private paradise” “… we have strengths and our Thainess remains attractive. If the new leader has any insights and seriously promotes tourism, we can surpass this growth."32
    • 33. HOW WILL WE GET THERE?
    • 34. PATTERNS & POSSIBILITIES34 34
    • 35. Strategic Choices Agenda The long -term  “A quality destination of diversified tourist attractions, valuable experiences and impressions” direction Re-structure the market towards expansion in quality markets with increase in average spending per trip.  Recognize market changes particularly the special importance of major niche market groups The scope of  Golf activities  Honeymoon and wedding  Health & Beauty  Sports Tourism  Green Tourism Competitive  Media networks with increasing memberships;  Extending sales channels through alliances; Advantage  Events and road shows, cooperation with Thai tour operators. 3535
    • 36. Strategic Choices Agenda Resources and Seminars that enhance knowledge competences Thai identity based tourism product development Database development Systematic human resource development and management Values and Creating tourism as part of life  Promoting travel linkages Expectations  Protection of tourist attractions Urgent need to evaluate strategic options under conditions of climate change, increasing fuel prices, online comparisons and bookings 3636
    • 37. Mapping the Future Together Strengthening Thailand brand image Comprehension: Quality is not what a company puts in a product. It is what customers perceive. The Hierarchical Decision Model: Ranking Awareness Familiarity Preference Advocacy (Promoter Score) Comparison: Distinctive benefits vs. customer effort, costs risk Leadership for product development, professionalism. Bottom line: Continuity if quality is forever, we have to continually look ahead. “Cheap and cheerful not sustainable.” - Tim Riches, Future Brand.37
    • 38. 38
    • 39. Place Branding STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 Goal Analysis of Design new Implementing Annual Audit of formulation current place place brand new products: destination brand : concept: brand: Mission statement Projected Image Brand identity Communication Image Targets Identity Experience Construction Awareness concept Perceived Collaboration Promotional image Value match material Collaboration Stakeholder process: Online and offline project communication39 39
    • 40. Mapping the Future Together: Promoting sustainable tourism How to operationalize sustainable development? Climate change: Flooding Queensland; retreating glaciers Water = life ; balance: local food production Volume-driven tourism towards tourism leveraging place reated know how Bottom line Comprehension: Quality is in the eye of customers so step one is comprehending what that means. “We love only what we understand.” Such insight can help us to reduce; recycle, restore, e.g. Thomas‟ reforestation project. - Thomas Bauer, Hong Kong Polytechnic University.40
    • 41. 100% Pure New Zealand To promote actions that protect and enhance NZ’s environment the following are deemed key stakeholders: • Ministry of Tourism • Tourism Industry Association • Tourism New Zealand • New Zealand Maori Tourism Council • Tour Operators • Ministry of the environment • Ministry of Transport • Department of Conservation41
    • 42. Leading blue-chip conglomerate in Sri Lanka, Aitken Spence Hotels Helping Planet and People in Partnership with Atmosfair Germany. Prize winner** Sri Lanka (1) Environment management, social and community development strategies and programs at Heritance Kandlama; (2) Emergence of an organizational culture anchored on sustainable development; and (3) Human resources practices that engendered and reinforced employees commitment to implement sustainable tourism practices, and strong employee support for Heritage Kandalamas customer service delivery model. www.aitkenspence.com42
    • 43. Mapping the Future Together: e-marketing & social media Culture: Growth brings complexity, also opportunities Social: 681 million registered Facebook users 4 billion mobile phones. People‟s desire to participate in a specific space (e.g. local restaurant) Groupon in 2 years 30% margin Bottom line Creativity: innovations originating from consumers have highest success rate (trustworthy p2p, e.g. TripAdvisor) - Tiwa York, OMNICOM Media Group43 Director of Platforms
    • 44. Mapping the Future: 44% of consumers use social networks to enhance tv viewing Thinkbox, the marketing body for commercial TV in the UK, recently conducted a survey of 3,000 consumers and found that: 60% of people concurrently watch TV go online at least 2-3 times, weekly. 37% go online while watching TV daily. 44% use Facebook and Twitter, while watching TV. 37% have chatted online about TV content. 19% shared TV content on a social network.44 44
    • 45. How can brands move into the dual screen arena? Brands must start moving from traditional media models to multi- screen, multi-platform marketing. Heineken rolled out a global initiative to enable people to interact with each other online while watching Champions League football. Expedia looks to invest in multi-screen marketing (according to EMEA Senior Marketing Director Andrew Warner) With the rise of smart phone and tablet users, brands need to consider how to create a more social experience to TV viewing. Social media strategy ties with other forms of advertising will help engage an audience across multiple channels and across multiple media and through a basic game encourage brand engagement.45
    • 46. Mapping the Future: Reputation management Risks: Contagious disease Swineflu (2009), SARS (2003) Governance of stakeholders‟ perception Media B2B and B2C gaining trust of the media Reputation is judgment: honesty, consistency, reliability, transparency Competitive destination – to be build on collaborative spirit Index, core indicators and criteria Bottom line: Need for management credibility - David Beirman, Sydney University46 of Technology
    • 47. The Corronation Street Fan Community is thriving and continues to grow Over 40 years later the Corronation series still ranks amongst the UKs highest viewing figures, achieving some 18 million viewers at its peak, and many more on a worldwide bases. It is now dubbed into many dozens of languages and shown throughout every continent on the globe.47
    • 48. The Corronation Street Fan Community is thriving and continues to grow Interesting points: 1) A sometimes disparate fragmented community, yet knits itself together 2) Managers exist, and fluctuate in dominance, but no one really „runs‟ the community Questions to ask: 1) Is this a more democratic form of online community management? 2) Without centralized management, the community is also without a strategy – will it suffer?48
    • 49. Population aged 65 and over Source: Population Reference Bureau, 200749
    • 50. Air Transport: 35,460 routes and 3,808 airports Air access to Thailand: not easy and expensive fares Middle East hubs draw secondary cities‟ residents cheaper fares Thailand aims at high end market to increase yield50
    • 51. CONCLUDING REMARKSPLATFORM IMPLEMENTATION
    • 52. What is current scenario plan? Upgrade from low-value to high value activities  Product upgrading - attract high end travel  Process upgrading – more sophistication  Inter-chain upgrading – special interest niches  Functional upgrading – brand, social media, greening52 52
    • 53. Best Fit Criteria for Competitive Advantage  Organization: Degree to which tourism is institutionalized; strength of clusters and networks  Investment: Expenditures on knowledge, facilities, learning and social innovation, technologies  Branding: positioning through experiences and events  Intelligence: data marketing research, assessment, reflection  Expertise: professionalism – self, business, community53 53
    • 54. How Does Value Figure in Best Fit? “Value” can be measured in multiple ways  Perceived value by tourists of different destinations  Expectations of powerful actors (expand /consolidate)  Value adding network relations needed to create service  Sourcing international markets for cost advantages, unique capabilities 5454
    • 55. Thailand in the World Market External Forces  Political - Political situation „wildcard‟  Economic - Stagnation global recovery  Social - Aging populations in West  Technological - Internet and nano technology  Environmental - Natural disasters  Legal – De -regulation airlines 5555
    • 56. Why connect TAT and English Speaking Tourism Industry leaders?  Business is main growth driver  Government shapes the conditions?  Smart destinations focus on co-creative vision  Effective response to challenges requires pooling of resources.56 56
    • 57. Main challenge How to Bridge Divides in Global Value Chain:  Geographic distance  Cultural differences  Governance differences  Infrastructural differences  Biases in information processes  In order to understand the reality of customers, suppliers and other stakeholders to raise the capacity for innovation - the key source of competitive advantage57
    • 58. No country can be an island in today’s business world Each is locked in a complex network of relationships. Managing relationships and brand position in the glocal tourism business network has become the critical task on which the sustainable Thai brand stands or falls. capitalize on the potential of your expatriate communities They are your bridge to the world markets –58
    • 59. 4. WHAT WE NEED59
    • 60. Conclusions To achieve optimal success there must be leadership clarity within the Thailand tourism strategy • Leadership clarity is defined as: “The shared perceptions of group members about the extent to which leadership roles are clear within the team.” (West et al, 2003): • Leadership clarity can lead to…  clear team objectives  high levels of participation  commitment to excellence  support for innovation through • Put a platform together to do it together!60
    • 61. Connecting Value: Community Platform of Practice Existing market base Enterprises Emerging markets TAT Specialized Destinations PATA High-end and NGO‟s and JFCCT niche markets universities SKAL Carriers Governments & Supranational bodies Travel trade Top-end Luxury market61

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