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Public Safety,  Public Spending:   F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public ...
Where We’ve Been
Where We’ve Been – Costs Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
Where Are We Going? Report Objectives <ul><li>To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems </l...
Projection Formula <ul><li>2011 State Prison Population = </li></ul><ul><li>[2006 population x 0.453957294846]  µ  </li></...
What We Found – National
National
National
Estimating Future Prison Costs <ul><li>Operating Costs:   National average in 2005 dollars    - $23,876 per inmate </li></...
What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011
Regions
State Highlights
State Highlights <ul><li>10 Lowest-Growth States </li></ul><ul><li>Delaware 0% </li></ul><ul><li>New York 0% </li></ul><ul...
Key Drivers and Trends <ul><li>Population growth, esp. in West </li></ul><ul><li>Growing admissions (1980-1992) </li></ul>...
Tremendous State Variation
Tremendous State Variation <ul><li>Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population </li></ul><ul><li>Admissions, Length of...
CT –Targeted Reform <ul><li>Problem </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identified technical violators as driver </li></ul></ul><ul><li>...
NC – Broad System Reform <ul><li>Problem </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms </li><...
Exciting Time in Criminal Justice <ul><li>Advances in science of behavior change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cognitive-Behaviora...
Implications <ul><li>Central Question is Being Reframed </li></ul><ul><li>OLD </li></ul><ul><li>“ How can we demonstrate t...
Public Safety,  Public Spending:   F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public ...
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Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

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Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director
Public Safety Performance Project
The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States
October 2, 2007

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  • Transcript of "Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011"

    1. 1. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007
    2. 2. Where We’ve Been
    3. 3. Where We’ve Been – Costs Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
    4. 4. Where Are We Going? Report Objectives <ul><li>To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems </li></ul><ul><li>To examine the reasons for projected growth </li></ul><ul><li>To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending </li></ul><ul><li>To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers </li></ul>
    5. 5. Projection Formula <ul><li>2011 State Prison Population = </li></ul><ul><li>[2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ </li></ul><ul><li>2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷ </li></ul><ul><li>Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 – </li></ul><ul><li>.364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003] </li></ul><ul><li>JUST KIDDING! – We called the states </li></ul>
    6. 6. What We Found – National
    7. 7. National
    8. 8. National
    9. 9. Estimating Future Prison Costs <ul><li>Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate </li></ul><ul><li>Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed </li></ul>
    10. 10. What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011
    11. 11. Regions
    12. 12. State Highlights
    13. 13. State Highlights <ul><li>10 Lowest-Growth States </li></ul><ul><li>Delaware 0% </li></ul><ul><li>New York 0% </li></ul><ul><li>Connecticut 0% </li></ul><ul><li>Maryland 1% </li></ul><ul><li>Louisiana 4% </li></ul><ul><li>Wisconsin 5% </li></ul><ul><li>Tennessee 5% </li></ul><ul><li>Missouri 6% </li></ul><ul><li>Massachusetts 6% </li></ul><ul><li>Rhode Island 7% </li></ul>
    14. 14. Key Drivers and Trends <ul><li>Population growth, esp. in West </li></ul><ul><li>Growing admissions (1980-1992) </li></ul><ul><li>Longer length of stay (1992- ) </li></ul><ul><li>Probation and parole violators (60% of growth) </li></ul><ul><li>Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%) </li></ul><ul><li>Rising age (up from 31 to 34) </li></ul><ul><li>Methamphetamine cases </li></ul><ul><li>Mental health cases </li></ul><ul><li>Workforce recruitment and retention </li></ul><ul><li>Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years </li></ul>
    15. 15. Tremendous State Variation
    16. 16. Tremendous State Variation <ul><li>Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population </li></ul><ul><li>Admissions, Length of Stay </li></ul><ul><li>Determined Largely by Policy Choices </li></ul><ul><li>State Policy Choices </li></ul><ul><li>= </li></ul><ul><li>State Prison Population / Costs </li></ul>
    17. 17. CT –Targeted Reform <ul><li>Problem </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identified technical violators as driver </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Solution </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Set goal of reducing TVs by 20% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hired 96 new POs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Started 2 new supervision/service programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public awareness campaign </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Result </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Highest growth to flat </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crime drop parallel to national reduction </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. NC – Broad System Reform <ul><li>Problem </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Solution </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Abolish discretionary parole release </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Establish comprehensive guidelines </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Create state/local partnership for low risk </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Result </li></ul><ul><ul><li>One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crime fell in sync with national drop </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. Exciting Time in Criminal Justice <ul><li>Advances in science of behavior change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Motivational Interviewing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Contingency Management </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Advances in supervision technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GPS monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broad public support for alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Trend toward Managing for Results </li></ul><ul><li>Budget pressure </li></ul><ul><li>Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation </li></ul>
    20. 20. Implications <ul><li>Central Question is Being Reframed </li></ul><ul><li>OLD </li></ul><ul><li>“ How can we demonstrate that </li></ul><ul><li>we’re tough on crime?” </li></ul><ul><li>NEW </li></ul><ul><li>“ How can we deliver taxpayers </li></ul><ul><li>the best return on their investment?” </li></ul>
    21. 21. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007
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