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Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

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Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director …

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director
Public Safety Performance Project
The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States
October 2, 2007


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    • 1. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007
    • 2. Where We’ve Been
    • 3. Where We’ve Been – Costs Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
    • 4. Where Are We Going? Report Objectives
      • To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems
      • To examine the reasons for projected growth
      • To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending
      • To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers
    • 5. Projection Formula
      • 2011 State Prison Population =
      • [2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ
      • 2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷
      • Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 –
      • .364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003]
      • JUST KIDDING! – We called the states
    • 6. What We Found – National
    • 7. National
    • 8. National
    • 9. Estimating Future Prison Costs
      • Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate
      • Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed
    • 10. What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011
    • 11. Regions
    • 12. State Highlights
    • 13. State Highlights
      • 10 Lowest-Growth States
      • Delaware 0%
      • New York 0%
      • Connecticut 0%
      • Maryland 1%
      • Louisiana 4%
      • Wisconsin 5%
      • Tennessee 5%
      • Missouri 6%
      • Massachusetts 6%
      • Rhode Island 7%
    • 14. Key Drivers and Trends
      • Population growth, esp. in West
      • Growing admissions (1980-1992)
      • Longer length of stay (1992- )
      • Probation and parole violators (60% of growth)
      • Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%)
      • Rising age (up from 31 to 34)
      • Methamphetamine cases
      • Mental health cases
      • Workforce recruitment and retention
      • Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years
    • 15. Tremendous State Variation
    • 16. Tremendous State Variation
      • Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population
      • Admissions, Length of Stay
      • Determined Largely by Policy Choices
      • State Policy Choices
      • =
      • State Prison Population / Costs
    • 17. CT –Targeted Reform
      • Problem
        • Identified technical violators as driver
      • Solution
        • Set goal of reducing TVs by 20%
        • Hired 96 new POs
        • Started 2 new supervision/service programs
        • Public awareness campaign
      • Result
        • Highest growth to flat
        • Crime drop parallel to national reduction
    • 18. NC – Broad System Reform
      • Problem
        • Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms
      • Solution
        • Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders
        • Abolish discretionary parole release
        • Establish comprehensive guidelines
        • Create state/local partnership for low risk
      • Result
        • One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack
        • Crime fell in sync with national drop
        • Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years
    • 19. Exciting Time in Criminal Justice
      • Advances in science of behavior change
        • Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment
        • Motivational Interviewing
        • Contingency Management
      • Advances in supervision technology
        • Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens
        • GPS monitoring
      • Broad public support for alternatives
      • Trend toward Managing for Results
      • Budget pressure
      • Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation
    • 20. Implications
      • Central Question is Being Reframed
      • OLD
      • “ How can we demonstrate that
      • we’re tough on crime?”
      • NEW
      • “ How can we deliver taxpayers
      • the best return on their investment?”
    • 21. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007