Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

Where We’ve Been

Where We’ve Been – Costs Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

Where Are We Going? Report Objectives
To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems
To examine the reasons for projected growth
To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending
To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

Projection Formula
2011 State Prison Population =
[2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ
2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷
Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 –
.364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003]
JUST KIDDING! – We called the states

What We Found – National

National

Estimating Future Prison Costs
Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate
Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011

Regions

State Highlights

State Highlights
10 Lowest-Growth States
Delaware 0%
New York 0%
Connecticut 0%
Maryland 1%
Louisiana 4%
Wisconsin 5%
Tennessee 5%
Missouri 6%
Massachusetts 6%
Rhode Island 7%

Key Drivers and Trends
Population growth, esp. in West
Growing admissions (1980-1992)
Longer length of stay (1992- )
Probation and parole violators (60% of growth)
Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%)
Rising age (up from 31 to 34)
Methamphetamine cases
Mental health cases
Workforce recruitment and retention
Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

Tremendous State Variation

Tremendous State Variation
Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population
Admissions, Length of Stay
Determined Largely by Policy Choices
State Policy Choices
=
State Prison Population / Costs

CT –Targeted Reform
Problem
Identified technical violators as driver
Solution
Set goal of reducing TVs by 20%
Hired 96 new POs
Started 2 new supervision/service programs
Public awareness campaign
Result
Highest growth to flat
Crime drop parallel to national reduction

NC – Broad System Reform
Problem
Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms
Solution
Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders
Abolish discretionary parole release
Establish comprehensive guidelines
Create state/local partnership for low risk
Result
One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack
Crime fell in sync with national drop
Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years

Exciting Time in Criminal Justice
Advances in science of behavior change
Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment
Motivational Interviewing
Contingency Management
Advances in supervision technology
Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens
GPS monitoring
Broad public support for alternatives
Trend toward Managing for Results
Budget pressure
Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

Implications
Central Question is Being Reframed
OLD
“ How can we demonstrate that
we’re tough on crime?”
NEW
“ How can we deliver taxpayers
the best return on their investment?”

Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

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Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

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