Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Like this? Share it with your network

Share

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011

on

  • 7,575 views

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director...

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director
Public Safety Performance Project
The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States
October 2, 2007

Statistics

Views

Total Views
7,575
Views on SlideShare
7,369
Embed Views
206

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
47
Comments
0

8 Embeds 206

http://noorslist.wordpress.com 116
http://1god1people.blogspot.com 40
http://www.1god1people.blogspot.com 32
http://noorslist.com 12
http://www.slideshare.net 3
http://64.233.167.104 1
http://www.blogger.com 1
http://mgmt.talkingvillage.com 1
More...

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

CC Attribution-NonCommercial LicenseCC Attribution-NonCommercial License

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Public Safety, Public Spending: Forecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007
  • 2. Where We’ve Been
  • 3. Where We’ve Been – Costs Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
  • 4. Where Are We Going? Report Objectives
    • To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems
    • To examine the reasons for projected growth
    • To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending
    • To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers
  • 5. Projection Formula
    • 2011 State Prison Population =
    • [2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ
    • 2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷
    • Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 –
    • .364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003]
    • JUST KIDDING! – We called the states
  • 6. What We Found – National
  • 7. National
  • 8. National
  • 9. Estimating Future Prison Costs
    • Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate
    • Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed
  • 10. What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011
  • 11. Regions
  • 12. State Highlights
  • 13. State Highlights
    • 10 Lowest-Growth States
    • Delaware 0%
    • New York 0%
    • Connecticut 0%
    • Maryland 1%
    • Louisiana 4%
    • Wisconsin 5%
    • Tennessee 5%
    • Missouri 6%
    • Massachusetts 6%
    • Rhode Island 7%
  • 14. Key Drivers and Trends
    • Population growth, esp. in West
    • Growing admissions (1980-1992)
    • Longer length of stay (1992- )
    • Probation and parole violators (60% of growth)
    • Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%)
    • Rising age (up from 31 to 34)
    • Methamphetamine cases
    • Mental health cases
    • Workforce recruitment and retention
    • Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years
  • 15. Tremendous State Variation
  • 16. Tremendous State Variation
    • Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population
    • Admissions, Length of Stay
    • Determined Largely by Policy Choices
    • State Policy Choices
    • =
    • State Prison Population / Costs
  • 17. CT –Targeted Reform
    • Problem
      • Identified technical violators as driver
    • Solution
      • Set goal of reducing TVs by 20%
      • Hired 96 new POs
      • Started 2 new supervision/service programs
      • Public awareness campaign
    • Result
      • Highest growth to flat
      • Crime drop parallel to national reduction
  • 18. NC – Broad System Reform
    • Problem
      • Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms
    • Solution
      • Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders
      • Abolish discretionary parole release
      • Establish comprehensive guidelines
      • Create state/local partnership for low risk
    • Result
      • One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack
      • Crime fell in sync with national drop
      • Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years
  • 19. Exciting Time in Criminal Justice
    • Advances in science of behavior change
      • Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment
      • Motivational Interviewing
      • Contingency Management
    • Advances in supervision technology
      • Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens
      • GPS monitoring
    • Broad public support for alternatives
    • Trend toward Managing for Results
    • Budget pressure
    • Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation
  • 20. Implications
    • Central Question is Being Reframed
    • OLD
    • “ How can we demonstrate that
    • we’re tough on crime?”
    • NEW
    • “ How can we deliver taxpayers
    • the best return on their investment?”
  • 21. Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007