Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007

Where We’ve Been

Where We’ve Been – Costs Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

Where Are We Going? Report Objectives To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems To examine the reasons for projected growth To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

To estimate the future size and cost of state and federal prison systems

To examine the reasons for projected growth

To highlight state efforts to control corrections spending

To outline the challenges ahead for state policy makers

Projection Formula 2011 State Prison Population = [2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ 2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷ Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 – .364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003] JUST KIDDING! – We called the states

2011 State Prison Population =

[2006 population x 0.453957294846] µ

2005 UCR ± 29384823 ÷

Census projection of 16-24 year-olds x .267 –

.364SES¥ - [1/HS graduation rate x .8003]

JUST KIDDING! – We called the states

What We Found – National

National

National

Estimating Future Prison Costs Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

Operating Costs: National average in 2005 dollars - $23,876 per inmate

Capital Costs: Midpoint estimate $65,000 per bed

What We Found – Costs New Prison Spending, 2007-2011

Regions

State Highlights

State Highlights 10 Lowest-Growth States Delaware 0% New York 0% Connecticut 0% Maryland 1% Louisiana 4% Wisconsin 5% Tennessee 5% Missouri 6% Massachusetts 6% Rhode Island 7%

10 Lowest-Growth States

Delaware 0%

New York 0%

Connecticut 0%

Maryland 1%

Louisiana 4%

Wisconsin 5%

Tennessee 5%

Missouri 6%

Massachusetts 6%

Rhode Island 7%

Key Drivers and Trends Population growth, esp. in West Growing admissions (1980-1992) Longer length of stay (1992- ) Probation and parole violators (60% of growth) Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%) Rising age (up from 31 to 34) Methamphetamine cases Mental health cases Workforce recruitment and retention Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

Population growth, esp. in West

Growing admissions (1980-1992)

Longer length of stay (1992- )

Probation and parole violators (60% of growth)

Women (57%) growing faster than men (34%)

Rising age (up from 31 to 34)

Methamphetamine cases

Mental health cases

Workforce recruitment and retention

Sex-offender laws will be felt in out-years

Tremendous State Variation

Tremendous State Variation Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population Admissions, Length of Stay Determined Largely by Policy Choices State Policy Choices = State Prison Population / Costs

Admissions x Length of Stay = Prison Population

Admissions, Length of Stay

Determined Largely by Policy Choices

State Policy Choices

=

State Prison Population / Costs

CT –Targeted Reform Problem Identified technical violators as driver Solution Set goal of reducing TVs by 20% Hired 96 new POs Started 2 new supervision/service programs Public awareness campaign Result Highest growth to flat Crime drop parallel to national reduction

Problem

Identified technical violators as driver

Solution

Set goal of reducing TVs by 20%

Hired 96 new POs

Started 2 new supervision/service programs

Public awareness campaign

Result

Highest growth to flat

Crime drop parallel to national reduction

NC – Broad System Reform Problem Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms Solution Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders Abolish discretionary parole release Establish comprehensive guidelines Create state/local partnership for low risk Result One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack Crime fell in sync with national drop Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years

Problem

Lack of truth, violent offenders serving short terms

Solution

Build prisons for violent/chronic offenders

Abolish discretionary parole release

Establish comprehensive guidelines

Create state/local partnership for low risk

Result

One of highest incarc. rates to middle of the pack

Crime fell in sync with national drop

Estimated $2 billion in savings over past 12 years

Exciting Time in Criminal Justice Advances in science of behavior change Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment Motivational Interviewing Contingency Management Advances in supervision technology Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens GPS monitoring Broad public support for alternatives Trend toward Managing for Results Budget pressure Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

Advances in science of behavior change

Cognitive-Behavioral Treatment

Motivational Interviewing

Contingency Management

Advances in supervision technology

Accurate, on site, rapid-result drug screens

GPS monitoring

Broad public support for alternatives

Trend toward Managing for Results

Budget pressure

Bipartisan reform efforts across the nation

Implications Central Question is Being Reframed OLD “ How can we demonstrate that we’re tough on crime?” NEW “ How can we deliver taxpayers the best return on their investment?”

Central Question is Being Reframed

OLD

“ How can we demonstrate that

we’re tough on crime?”

NEW

“ How can we deliver taxpayers

the best return on their investment?”

Public Safety, Public Spending: F orecasting America’s Prison Population, 2007-2011 Adam Gelb, Project Director Public Safety Performance Project The Pew Charitable Trusts, Pew Center on the States October 2, 2007