The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected

NIELS BOHR (quoted by A N TO N Z E I L I N G E R ) “There are two types of truths: simple truths & deep truths. Simple truth is truth where the opposite is not true. Deep truth is truth where the opposite is also true.” DA L A I L A M A “There’s something to that.”

a and with for talk Open Source Sheldon Renan vision (+) strategy BRIDGE srenan@gmail.com

the next MOORE’S LAW Sheldon Renan vision (+) strategy Twitter @srenan

netness WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG

A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote

A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote and somehow… within a short time I was learning Moore’s Law then writing for XEROX PARC

A funny thing happened to me in 1989: I tried to go out of business but the next morning THE PHONE RANG somebody wanted an interactive version of Murder She Wrote and somehow… within a short time I was learning Moore’s Law then writing for XEROX PARC THEN ONE DAY I WAS DOING A WHITEPAPER FOR SOMEBODY ON

…interoperability

NOTE TO SELF: Anything that is connected always has more opportunity than anything that isn’t. Making it easy for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of

NOTE TO SELF: Anything that is connected always has more opportunity than anything that isn’t. Making it easy for things to work together is the fastest way to lower the cost of anything? —1994

JSB TELLS ME: If both has the same user interface (big green button), if two machines do roughly the same thing look and feel (LIKE COPYING) if machine in world of atoms if one machine (COPY MACHINE) is connected with is in the world of atoms machine in the world of bits if one machine EACH MACHINE HAS MORE (VIRTUAL COPY MACHINE) opportunity is in the world of bits than if it is a standalone machine — jsb’s law, 1997

Something deep was changing I was aware of a shift the internet? the net? what? jsb talked about the fabric, an emerging fabric of rich services surrounding and interconnecting communities

I began to recognize it was not the internet it was not the network

I began to recognize it was not the internet it was not the network it was netness that was making the difference between our past and our future

Moore’s Law

the price and performance available from semi-conductor technology will double every 24 months

Conversation between Gordon Moore & Carver Mead Article in electronics magazine 1965 Marketing to promote future use of chips in consumer products

Named “Dr. Moore’s Law” by Carver Mead in 1971 Metronome setting the pace for global tech ecosystems Most important source of new opportunity

Foundation of digital everything Enabler of global communications & technology Influence that extends far beyond technology

I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?”

I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?” He answered,

I asked Gordon Moore, “What is it people don’t understand?” He answered, “What people don’t understand is that the smaller things get the faster and cheaper and better they always work.”

What is netness?

netness IS AN EMERGING STATE OF BEING in which connectivity is increasingly ubiquitous, lives are increasingly entangled.

Connectivity is becoming the most important driver of new opportunity the critical creator of new value

Not networks Not the Internet Connectivity itself

The more things you connect, the better things work

The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are

The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are the safer they are

The more things you connect, the better things work the smarter they are the safer they are the more opportunity is created for sharing resources and collaborating

More things, people and places are becoming connected every day

5 vectors of growth for connectivity

1. The number of networks

2. The number of connectable points

3. The number of connected devices

4. The number of connected locations

5. The ubiquity

5. The ubiquity, frequency

5. The ubiquity, frequency & intimacy of connections

How is connectivity changing?

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous systems (networks) become

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous systems (networks) become fields

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous networks and lives become

As connectivity becomes ubiquitous networks and lives become entangled

A new kind of connectivity is emerging We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity:

A new kind of connectivity is emerging We used to talk about 3 states of connectivity: Loosely connected Closely connected Embedded

A new kind of connectivity is emerging 4th state of connectivity is emerging: Loosely connected Closely connected Embedded Entangled

When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more things, people, places become entangled…

When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more systems (networks) become like fields…

When connectivity becomes ubiquitous The more things, people, places become the better things work entangled the safer they are

Two worlds

The world of atoms The more things, and the world of bits the better things becomes one

What creates the value

Metcalfe’s Law

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration Summation

Metcalfe’s Law Reed’s Law The externalities effect The power of collaboration Summation (more data from more points of view)

We are not just talking about connecting more things over the networks,

We are not just talking about connecting more things over the networks, We are not just talking about connecting more networks

We are talking about connecting everything

individual world

many devices makes individual world

many devices make individual world

many devices make individual world many room networks make

many wearable devices make individual world many room networks make

many Many wearable devices house networks make make individual world many room networks make

many many wearable devices house networks make make individual world many room networks make

many many wearable devices house networks make make individual world many many room networks neighborhood networks make make

many many associations of wearable devices house networks peer to peer networks make make individual world many many room networks neighborhood networks make make

many many associations of wearable devices house networks peer to peer networks make make individual world many many room networks neighborhood networks global networks make make

individual world

individual world What we consider today to be interconnected networks

individual world is really, really tiny

atom planet individual world …is just the beginning

atom planet is comprised of networks is comprised of networks

connect everything, atom planet at every level

Limit connectivity, and you limit opportunity

Limit connectivity, and you limit opportunity you decrease safety

Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity

Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity, safety

Connect the unconnected, and you hugely increase opportunity, safety & success

This is why we can say that WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

Example

AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN

WHO LIVES BY HIM SELF

TAKES A SHO W E R AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN

TAKES A SHO W E R AN EIGHTY YEAR OLD MAN WHEN HE FALLS INTO THE TUB

What if

WHEN HE FELL INTO THE TUB KNOWS

THAT THE MAN IS FALL IN FELL INTO WHEN HEG THE TUB KNOWS

THAT HE HAS OSTEO PORO SI FELL INTO WHEN HES THE TUB KNOWS

THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT THAT THE MAN IS FALL ING

THE TUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO CONTACT – 911 – Daughter – Landlord – Geriatric service – Hospital

THE BATHTUB KNOWS AND THEN PROCEEDED TO

THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES

HITS THE SO TUB WHEN HE THE BATHTUB KNOWS REARRANGE ITS MOLECULES

HITS THE SO TUB THE WHEN HE TUB CATCHES HIM

individual world connectivity fields will enable emergence of “virtuous service fabrics”

individual world connectivity fields will enable emergence of “virtuous service fabrics” programmed to mitigate threats and optimize outcomes for individuals

individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with

sensor nets individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with

pervasive computing individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with sensor nets &

individual world “virtuous service fabrics” will evolve from current experiments with sensor nets & pervasive computing for healthcare

early stage virtuous service fabrics are already operating invisibly in a surprising number of automobiles today.

Netness vs. Moore’s Law

EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive

EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate

EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate anywhere

EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate anywhere with anything

EVERY DAY it becomes more important and more productive to be able to connect, communicate, and collaborate anywhere with anything on an ad hoc basis

EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have

EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have the fastest computer chips,

EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have the fastest computer chips, fattest connections,

EVERY DAY it becomes less important to have the fastest computer chips, fattest connections, or vertically optimized silicon solutions

Where does this apply?

This is a tool you can use in planning products, business models & governance

What would be the most important use?

Confluencing crises

Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources & reserves

Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate

Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate for maximum efficiency (and minimum waste)

Confluencing crises of population growth, climate change & insufficient resources are the most urgent reason to recognize, optimize and utilize netness Radically increasing the ability for everything to cooperate and collaborate for maximum efficiency (and minimum waste) will be a requirement to assure survival of many communities.

What Can We Do To Accelerate The Recognition And Optimization of Netness?

We need to create a taxonomy of connectivity

We need to conduct a taxonomy of connectivity experiments to validate the value of connectivity

We need to focus a taxonomy of connectivity experiments to validate the value of connectivity on more “drip networks” as much as broadband

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in The Phenomenon of Man Connectivity = Life

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in The Phenomenon of Man Connectivity = Life Isolation = Death

That is why WHY EVERYTHING WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

That is why ALL THINGS ABSOLUTELY WANTS TO BE CONNECTED

Thank you, and see you on www.netness.net in 60 days. Sheldon Renan srenan@gmail.com

Designed by Bram Pitoyo brampitoyo@gmail.com

Any questions, comments or rants?

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The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected

by Bram Pitoyo on Jun 19, 2009

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The Next Moore’s Law - Netness: Why Everything Wants To Be Connected — Presentation Transcript