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Worldwide Mobile Phone Users eMarketer 07-13

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Worldwide Mobile Phone Users eMarketer 07-13

Worldwide Mobile Phone Users eMarketer 07-13

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  • 1. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates JULY 2013 Alison McCarthy Contributors: Monica Peart, Martín Utreras, Jeffrey Vasapolli, Haixia Wang Read this on eMarketer for iPad
  • 2. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2 CONTENTS 2 Executive Summary 3 Mobile Phone Users Worldwide 6 Smartphone Users Worldwide 10 Mobile Phone Internet Users Worldwide 14 eMarketer Methodology and Comparative Estimates 19 Conclusions 20 Related eMarketer Reports 20 Editorial and Production Contributors EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The number of mobile phone users worldwide will total 4.31 billion this year, representing 60.7% of the global population. New users in developing countries will continue to drive steady growth in this audience through 2017. Last year, the worldwide smartphone population surpassed 1 billion, and one in three mobile phone owners will use a smartphone regularly this year.The global user base will grow dramatically through 2017. Between 2013 and 2017, the worldwide smartphone audience will increase from 1.40 billion to 2.51 billion. Asia-Pacific will have the world’s largest mobile phone, mobile internet and smartphone audiences through 2017. Users in China, the country with the largest population worldwide, will contribute substantially to Asia-Pacific’s massive mobile market, as will those in India, which has the fastest-growing mobile phone, smartphone and mobile internet audiences. User penetration rates for these technologies vary vastly across the regions and countries included in eMarketer’s forecast. General mobile usage is most common in Western Europe, North America, and Central and Eastern Europe. People living in Latin America, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East and Africa—specifically in countries with widespread rural populations—will be less likely to use mobile phones and mobile internet. Smartphone penetration is lower where the higher cost of smartphones is a deterrent, as well as where existing mobile users tend to use internet-capable mobile devices, such as in India, Indonesia and Brazil. KEY QUESTIONS ■■ How many people around the world will use mobile phones, smartphones and the mobile internet through 2017? ■■ What is the outlook for the growth of the mobile phone, smartphone and mobile internet audiences worldwide? ■■ What factors are driving mobile phone, smartphone and mobile internet adoption? billions and % change Smartphone Users Worldwide, 2011-2017 2011 0.67 101.4% 2012 1.10 65.1% 2013 1.40 27.3% 2014 1.74 24.5% 2015 2.03 16.2% 2016 2.28 12.5% 2017 2.51 10.2% Smartphone users % change Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month Source: eMarketer, May 2013 160019 www.eMarketer.com
  • 3. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3 MOBILE PHONE USERS WORLDWIDE This year, 60.7% of people around the world will use a mobile phone at least once per month, totaling 4.31 billion users—up 5.6% from 2012. Growth will be primarily driven by new mobile phone users in developing countries, and increases will continue to moderate throughout the forecast period as ownership moves toward capacity. billions, % of population and % change Mobile Phone Users Worldwide, 2011-2017 2011 3.75 54.1% 11.5% 2012 4.08 58.1% 8.7% 2013 4.31 60.7% 5.6% 2014 4.52 63.0% 4.9% 2015 4.73 65.3% 4.7% 2016 4.92 67.2% 4.0% 2017 5.10 69.0% 3.7% Mobile phone users % of population % change Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157074 www.eMarketer.com New data indicates that the mobile phone user bases in Russia, Indonesia, China, Brazil and Spain are larger than eMarketer previously estimated. Based on these new audience figures, we have increased our projections from our April 2012 forecast for the number of total mobile phone users worldwide from 2011 through 2016. Asia-Pacific has the highest number of mobile phone users across the globe. Regionally, Asia-Pacific will have the largest mobile phone audience, with more than 2.42 billion users this year. By 2017, the number of mobile phone users in the region will near 3 billion. With respective user bases of more than 1.04 billion and 524.9 million in 2013, mobile phone users in China and India will make up nearly two-thirds of Asia-Pacific’s mobile phone population. A growing middle class, combined with infrastructure developments and increased competition in the mobile marketplace, will drive mobile phone adoption among urban and rural residents of these countries, as well as in the corresponding populations of Indonesia. By country, the largest mobile phone audiences through 2017 will be in China, India and the US. China’s massive mobile phone user population will total nearly 25% of the worldwide audience this year. India’s will follow in size, with just over half as many, or a share just over 12%.The US will have the third-largest number of mobile phone users, with 246.5 million. eMarketer revised our 2013 estimate for the total number of US mobile phone users slightly downward due to updated population estimates from the US Census Bureau. We have increased our projections for total mobile phone users in China and Indonesia for the entirety of the forecast period based on new data indicating faster growth of mobile phone adoption in these countries.
  • 4. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4 millions Mobile Phone Users Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Asia-Pacific —China* —India —Indonesia —Japan —South Korea —Australia —Other Middle East & Africa Latin America —Brazil —Mexico —Argentina —Other Western Europe —Germany —France —UK —Italy —Spain —Netherlands —Sweden —Denmark —Finland —Norway —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other North America —US —Canada Worldwide 2011 2,036.7 868.9 416.2 130.4 105.8 41.2 16.6 457.6 445.6 370.1 118.6 59.1 32.2 160.2 326.4 64.3 49.0 48.8 47.9 39.0 13.3 7.2 4.6 4.7 4.2 43.3 313.0 105.5 207.5 259.2 237.4 21.8 3,751.0 980.6 470.0 164.1 107.0 41.5 17.5 487.1 139.5 63.2 33.3 165.8 65.6 50.2 50.3 48.9 39.9 13.6 7.4 4.7 4.7 4.3 44.3 108.3 214.0 242.2 22.8 2012 2,267.8 485.4 401.9 333.8 322.3 265.0 4,076.2 2013 2,423.2 1,039.2 524.9 173.3 108.2 41.9 18.2 517.6 525.8 414.7 142.7 67.4 34.5 170.0 340.3 66.8 51.4 51.2 49.9 40.8 13.8 7.5 4.8 4.7 4.3 45.1 331.7 111.2 220.5 270.3 246.5 23.8 4,305.9 2014 2,565.3 1,084.6 581.1 180.1 109.3 42.2 18.9 549.2 561.0 430.0 149.0 71.7 35.3 174.1 346.3 68.0 52.5 51.9 50.7 41.6 14.1 7.6 4.9 4.7 4.3 45.9 341.0 114.0 227.0 275.4 250.6 24.8 4,518.9 2015 2,709.5 1,130.1 638.4 186.9 110.4 42.5 19.4 581.9 595.7 444.3 155.2 75.4 36.0 177.7 351.9 69.1 53.6 52.6 51.5 42.5 14.3 7.7 4.9 4.8 4.3 46.6 350.3 116.8 233.5 279.9 254.2 25.7 4,731.6 2016 2,829.0 1,168.8 684.1 191.2 110.9 42.8 19.8 611.5 632.1 458.8 161.6 79.1 36.8 181.2 356.4 69.8 54.5 53.2 52.1 43.3 14.5 7.8 5.0 4.8 4.4 47.1 359.0 119.6 239.4 283.7 257.2 26.5 4,919.0 2017 2,944.0 1,207.4 730.7 195.4 111.3 43.1 20.2 635.9 670.9 471.7 165.9 82.6 37.5 185.7 360.3 70.4 55.0 53.7 52.8 44.1 14.6 7.9 5.0 4.8 4.4 47.6 367.9 122.3 245.5 287.4 260.3 27.1 5,102.2 Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157076 www.eMarketer.com Norway, Finland and Denmark will have the highest percentages of mobile phone users among their respective populations through 2015. eMarketer expects that beginning in 2016, Spain’s mobile phone audience will surpass Denmark’s in penetration. Among the regions included in our forecast, Western Europe will have the highest percentage of residents using mobile phones throughout the forecast period. Mobile phone audiences in nearly all countries in the region are nearing full saturation. The region with the lowest mobile phone user penetration rate among its population is the Middle East and Africa—despite having one of the world’s largest mobile phone audiences in absolute numbers. With a user base of 525.8 million this year, the Middle East and Africa will have the second-largest regional population of mobile phone users after Asia-Pacific. However, just 38.8% of people in the region will use mobile phones regularly. 3G deployment is still in an early stage in the Middle East and Africa, and device prices are prohibitive for many people in the region. Mobile phone usage in Asia-Pacific varies dramatically from country to country. While usage is ubiquitous in South Korea and Japan—where at least 85.0% of residents will use a mobile phone in 2013—only 43.0% of people in India will regularly use this device type. Between 2013 and 2017, the percentage of people using mobile phones in Asia-Pacific will rise from 61.5% to 72.1%.This figure will be boosted by the increase in China’s and India’s penetration rates, which are expected to rise by 11 percentage points and 14 percentage points, respectively, between 2013 and 2017.
  • 5. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5 % of population in each group Mobile Phone User Penetration Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Western Europe —Norway —Finland —Denmark —Spain —Germany —Netherlands —Sweden —Italy —UK —France —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other North America —US —Canada Latin America —Argentina —Brazil —Mexico —Other Asia-Pacific —South Korea —Japan —Australia —China* —Indonesia —India —Other Middle East & Africa Worldwide 2011 79.0% 90.2% 89.7% 83.7% 83.5% 78.9% 79.7% 79.7% 78.5% 77.8% 75.0% 80.9% 73.1% 74.0% 72.6% 75.0% 76.2% 64.0% 63.1% 77.0% 60.0% 52.0% 68.9% 52.7% 84.5% 83.0% 76.3% 65.0% 53.0% 35.0% 51.0% 34.4% 54.1% 2012 80.5% 90.5% 89.8% 85.0% 84.9% 80.7% 81.0% 81.0% 79.9% 79.4% 76.5% 82.2% 75.2% 76.0% 74.8% 76.1% 77.1% 66.6% 67.8% 79.0% 70.0% 55.0% 70.2% 58.1% 85.0% 84.0% 79.5% 73.0% 66.0% 39.0% 53.5% 36.6% 58.1% 2013 81.8% 91.0% 89.9% 86.2% 86.1% 82.3% 82.2% 82.2% 81.1% 80.1% 78.0% 83.3% 77.2% 78.0% 76.9% 77.0% 77.9% 68.9% 69.3% 81.0% 71.0% 58.0% 71.2% 61.5% 85.5% 85.0% 81.8% 77.0% 69.0% 43.0% 56.1% 38.8% 60.7% 2014 82.9% 91.1% 90.0% 87.5% 87.2% 84.0% 83.5% 83.5% 82.2% 80.6% 79.3% 84.4% 79.3% 80.0% 79.0% 77.8% 78.6% 71.2% 71.1% 82.0% 73.5% 61.0% 72.1% 64.5% 86.0% 86.0% 84.0% 80.0% 71.0% 47.0% 58.8% 40.5% 63.0% 2015 83.9% 91.2% 90.2% 88.3% 88.2% 85.5% 84.3% 84.3% 83.2% 81.1% 80.5% 85.3% 81.4% 82.0% 81.1% 78.5% 79.1% 73.2% 72.8% 83.0% 76.0% 63.5% 72.7% 67.5% 86.5% 87.0% 85.3% 83.0% 73.0% 51.0% 61.5% 42.1% 65.3% 2016 84.7% 91.3% 90.4% 89.0% 89.1% 86.5% 85.0% 85.0% 84.1% 81.2% 81.5% 86.0% 83.3% 84.0% 83.0% 79.0% 79.4% 75.0% 74.4% 84.0% 78.5% 66.0% 73.4% 69.9% 87.0% 87.5% 86.1% 85.5% 74.0% 54.0% 63.8% 43.7% 67.2% 2017 85.4% 91.3% 90.6% 89.7% 90.0% 87.4% 85.6% 85.5% 85.0% 81.3% 82.0% 86.6% 85.3% 86.0% 85.0% 79.4% 79.8% 76.0% 75.8% 84.7% 80.0% 68.2% 74.4% 72.1% 87.5% 88.0% 86.9% 88.0% 75.0% 57.0% 65.5% 45.4% 69.0% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157100 www.eMarketer.com Among all of the countries and regions included in our forecast, the number of mobile phone users will rise the fastest in the Middle East and Africa. The region’s small mobile phone user base will primarily drive its high growth. In 2011 and 2012, Asia-Pacific had the fastest gains in the number of mobile phone users, driven by rapidly expanding audiences in India, China and Indonesia.This year, the mobile phone population in the Middle East and Africa will expand more rapidly than Asia-Pacific’s as the growth of the mobile phone user bases in China and Indonesia moderates. India’s mobile phone audience will have the highest percentage gains of any country through 2017. Growth will also be strong in Mexico, China and Indonesia. Increased competition in the mobile marketplace, availability of more affordable phones and subscriptions, expanding infrastructure in urban and rural areas, and rising middle class populations will help drive adoption. Western Europe and North America are mature mobile phone markets, and user bases will expand the slowest throughout the forecast period.The more saturated mobile phone markets in Finland, South Korea and Norway will have the smallest gains in new users. eMarketer expects that this year, the majority of countries included in our forecast will have growth rates below 3% as mobile phone audiences across the globe approach a plateau.
  • 6. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6 % change Mobile Phone User Growth Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Asia-Pacific —India —China* —Indonesia —Australia —Japan —South Korea —Other Middle East & Africa Latin America —Mexico —Argentina —Brazil —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other North America —Canada —US Western Europe —France —Spain —Netherlands —Italy —Germany —UK —Denmark —Sweden —Norway —Finland —Other Worldwide 2011 16.3% 7.5% 29.5% 21.8% 6.4% 1.1% 0.8% 7.9% 10.5% 6.5% 7.3% 3.7% 10.1% 4.3% 6.1% 5.7% 6.3% 2.7% 5.8% 2.4% 3.2% 3.3% 2.4% 2.5% 5.8% 2.6% 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 3.1% 11.5% 2012 11.3% 12.9% 12.9% 25.8% 5.4% 1.1% 0.8% 6.4% 8.9% 8.6% 6.9% 3.6% 17.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% 3.1% 2.3% 4.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 2.2% 8.7% 2013 6.9% 11.7% 6.0% 5.6% 4.0% 1.1% 0.8% 6.3% 8.3% 3.2% 6.6% 3.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% 2.0% 4.3% 1.8% 1.9% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 1.9% 5.6% 2014 5.9% 10.7% 4.4% 3.9% 3.8% 1.1% 0.8% 6.1% 6.7% 3.7% 6.3% 2.2% 4.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.5% 3.0% 1.9% 4.1% 1.6% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 4.9% 2015 5.6% 9.9% 4.2% 3.8% 2.6% 1.0% 0.7% 6.0% 6.2% 3.3% 5.2% 2.2% 4.2% 2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.9% 1.6% 3.7% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 1.5% 4.7% 2016 4.4% 7.2% 3.4% 2.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.7% 5.1% 6.1% 3.2% 5.0% 2.1% 4.1% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 1.4% 3.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 4.0% 2017 4.1% 6.8% 3.3% 2.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.7% 4.0% 6.1% 2.8% 4.4% 1.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.6% 1.3% 2.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 3.7% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157108 www.eMarketer.com SMARTPHONE USERS WORLDWIDE eMarketer estimates that there will be 1.40 billion smartphone users worldwide in 2013.These smartphone users will represent nearly one in three mobile phone users, or about one-fifth of the global population. The total number of smartphone users will rise 27.3% this year, following a growth rate of 65.1% in 2012.The worldwide smartphone audience will maintain double-digit increases through 2017. By then, people using smartphones will account for nearly half of all mobile phone users and more than one-third of the population worldwide. Augmented competition between mobile carriers, phone manufacturers and operating system providers; lower-priced devices; government auctions of data bandwidth; and large investments in infrastructure for mobile data networks will all fuel the expanding smartphone audience. Smartphone Users and Penetration Worldwide, 2011-2017 Smartphone users (billions) —% change —% of mobile phone users —% of population 2011 0.67 101.4% 17.8% 9.6% 2012 1.10 65.1% 27.0% 15.7% 2013 1.40 27.3% 32.5% 19.8% 2014 1.74 24.5% 38.6% 24.3% 2015 2.03 16.2% 42.9% 28.0% 2016 2.28 12.5% 46.4% 31.2% 2017 2.51 10.2% 49.3% 34.0% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157274 www.eMarketer.com eMarketer has increased our estimate for the total number of smartphone users worldwide since our April 2012 forecast. Upward revisions for smartphone audiences in Germany, Spain, Russia, Mexico, China, Indonesia, the US and the UK based on new data contributed to this new projection. More than half of smartphone users worldwide will reside in Asia-Pacific through 2017.This year, 738.2 million people in the region will use a smartphone regularly.This is more than four times the size of Western Europe’s smartphone population, the second-largest audience in the world.This year, Western Europe surpassed North America in number of smartphone users for the first time.
  • 7. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7 China will be the country with the largest smartphone audience throughout the forecast period. With 415.7 million users, the smartphone population in China will account for more than 56% of Asia-Pacific’s user base, or almost 30% of the worldwide total.The country’s expanding middle class is rapidly adopting smartphones, which are falling in cost as competition in the mobile market escalates. Among the countries included in our forecast, the US will have the second-largest smartphone population with 140.0 million users. millions Smartphone Users Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Asia-Pacific —China* —India —Japan —South Korea —Indonesia —Australia —Other Western Europe —UK —Germany —France —Italy —Spain —Netherlands —Sweden —Denmark —Norway —Finland —Other North America —US —Canada Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Middle East & Africa Latin America —Brazil —Mexico —Argentina —Other Worldwide 2011 336.5 208.5 20.8 19.0 18.5 11.7 6.6 51.2 93.6 21.6 15.8 12.0 11.5 8.5 4.9 3.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 11.0 101.1 92.8 8.3 56.7 15.8 40.9 34.1 44.7 12.1 8.9 5.5 18.3 666.8 2012 609.0 382.4 42.3 35.3 24.9 26.3 9.3 88.5 125.3 26.4 21.6 16.6 15.4 14.2 6.0 3.8 2.2 2.3 1.9 15.0 131.9 121.4 10.5 89.9 27.1 62.9 67.0 77.7 22.2 17.7 7.7 30.2 1,100.8 2013 738.2 415.7 73.5 53.0 30.6 41.6 12.0 111.9 161.1 30.9 28.0 23.1 20.4 19.4 7.4 4.6 2.7 2.7 2.4 19.4 152.2 140.0 12.1 125.7 38.9 86.8 112.2 111.6 29.7 26.3 10.0 45.6 1,401.1 2014 909.8 466.4 116.2 76.5 34.2 61.2 14.4 141.0 197.9 34.6 35.4 30.5 25.8 24.0 9.1 5.2 3.3 3.2 2.8 24.0 173.9 159.9 14.0 168.2 53.6 114.7 151.5 142.9 39.9 32.2 12.3 58.4 1,744.2 2015 1,038.0 508.5 159.6 82.2 35.3 74.8 15.1 162.5 233.0 37.8 44.8 35.4 31.4 28.0 10.8 5.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 28.4 193.3 178.0 15.3 200.6 64.2 136.4 184.1 178.5 51.3 39.2 14.8 73.2 2,027.7 2016 1,155.4 549.3 195.0 87.4 35.9 89.8 15.6 182.3 257.9 40.7 51.0 39.2 34.7 30.3 12.2 6.3 4.3 4.1 3.6 31.4 210.2 193.7 16.5 231.0 75.3 155.6 217.5 209.8 60.5 45.9 16.6 86.8 2,281.8 2017 1,266.1 591.6 233.8 88.9 36.5 103.6 16.2 195.5 277.6 43.4 56.4 42.6 35.9 32.2 13.5 6.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 33.8 225.1 207.4 17.7 256.5 84.4 172.1 248.0 241.4 70.5 52.9 18.4 99.7 2,514.7 Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157277 www.eMarketer.com North America will have the highest smartphone user penetration rate among its population of any region. This year, 43.4% of people in North America will use a smartphone as the costs of hardware and subscriptions become more affordable, new features continue to attract new owners and mobile bandwidth limits remain high. eMarketer expects that in 2015, Western Europe will have a higher smartphone user penetration rate than North America. The majority of residents in South Korea, Norway, Australia and Sweden will use a smartphone. South Korea will lead the other countries, with a 62.4% reach this year as consumers rapidly switch to smartphones from advanced feature phones with internet capabilities. In 2015, Norway will surpass South Korea in penetration. By the end of the forecast period, almost nine out of 10 people in Norway will use a smartphone regularly. This year, the Middle East and Africa will have a larger smartphone audience than Latin America for the first time. But the region will continue to have the lowest penetration rate of smartphone users among its own population. Just 8.3% of people in the Middle East and Africa will own and use a smartphone in 2013. eMarketer has decreased the overall total of smartphone users in the region from our April 2012 forecast based on the prevalence of feature phones and advanced feature phones as well as the lack of 3G development in areas outside of major cities. Like mobile phone usage, smartphone usage in Asia-Pacific spans a broad range.The region has varying levels of economic and infrastructure development and access to mobile technologies, as seen in the vast difference between smartphone penetration rates in India and South Korea.This year, smartphone users will represent 62.4% of people in South Korea, compared with just 6.0% in India. Overall, only 18.7% of Asia-Pacific’s residents will regularly use smartphones, despite the fact that the region has the largest global smartphone population.
  • 8. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8 % of population Smartphone User Penetration Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 North America —US —Canada Western Europe —Norway —Sweden —UK —Denmark —Finland —Netherlands —Spain —France —Germany —Italy —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Asia-Pacific —South Korea —Australia —Japan —China* —Indonesia —India —Other Latin America —Argentina —Mexico —Brazil —Other Middle East & Africa Worldwide 2011 29.3% 29.8% 24.3% 22.7% 41.9% 35.1% 34.3% 32.6% 29.6% 29.3% 18.2% 18.4% 19.3% 18.8% 20.1% 13.3% 11.1% 14.3% 8.7% 38.0% 30.5% 14.9% 15.6% 4.8% 1.8% 5.7% 7.6% 13.1% 7.8% 6.1% 7.8% 2.6% 9.6% 2012 37.9% 38.7% 30.6% 30.2% 49.1% 41.7% 41.7% 39.5% 36.4% 35.8% 30.1% 25.2% 26.6% 25.1% 27.4% 21.0% 19.0% 22.0% 15.6% 51.0% 42.1% 27.7% 28.5% 10.6% 3.5% 9.7% 13.1% 18.2% 15.4% 11.1% 12.8% 5.1% 15.7% 2013 43.4% 44.3% 35.1% 38.7% 58.0% 50.2% 48.4% 48.3% 45.0% 44.2% 40.9% 35.1% 34.6% 33.3% 35.4% 29.3% 27.3% 30.3% 18.7% 62.4% 54.0% 41.7% 30.8% 16.6% 6.0% 12.1% 18.6% 23.5% 22.6% 14.8% 19.1% 8.3% 19.8% 2014 49.2% 50.1% 40.2% 47.4% 68.0% 56.7% 53.7% 58.6% 53.6% 54.1% 50.3% 46.0% 43.7% 41.8% 43.6% 39.1% 37.6% 39.9% 22.9% 69.7% 63.8% 60.2% 34.4% 24.1% 9.4% 15.1% 23.6% 28.7% 27.5% 19.7% 24.2% 10.9% 24.3% 2015 54.2% 55.4% 43.6% 55.6% 78.3% 63.2% 58.2% 68.9% 60.4% 64.0% 58.1% 53.1% 55.4% 50.8% 51.4% 46.6% 45.1% 47.4% 25.9% 71.8% 66.5% 64.8% 37.4% 29.2% 12.8% 17.2% 29.2% 34.0% 33.0% 25.1% 30.0% 13.0% 28.0% 2016 58.5% 59.8% 46.6% 61.3% 86.2% 68.8% 62.2% 77.0% 68.3% 71.8% 62.4% 58.7% 63.1% 55.9% 56.8% 53.6% 52.9% 54.0% 28.5% 73.1% 68.0% 69.0% 40.2% 34.8% 15.4% 19.0% 34.0% 37.8% 38.3% 29.4% 35.2% 15.0% 31.2% 2017 62.2% 63.5% 49.8% 65.8% 89.1% 74.1% 65.8% 83.2% 75.4% 79.3% 65.8% 63.6% 69.9% 57.8% 61.1% 59.5% 59.3% 59.6% 31.0% 74.2% 69.5% 70.3% 43.1% 39.8% 18.2% 20.1% 38.8% 41.5% 43.6% 34.0% 39.9% 16.8% 34.0% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157290 www.eMarketer.com South Korea will also have the highest percentage of smartphone users among its mobile phone population out of all countries included in our forecast.This year, 73.0% of mobile phone users in South Korea will use a smartphone at least once per month. Australia, Norway and Sweden will also have high penetration rates. Comparably, just 14.0% of mobile phone users in India will use a smartphone, while smartphone users in Indonesia and Brazil will represent 24.0% and 20.8% of the mobile phone audience in each country, respectively. Mobile phone users in these countries tend to use standard feature phones or advanced feature phones with internet connections. Regionally, mobile phone users in North America andWestern Europe will be the most likely to use smartphones.This year, 56.3% of mobile phone users in North America and 47.4% in Western Europe will be smartphone users. High smartphone adoption in the US, the UK, Norway and Sweden has helped boost penetration rates in these two regions. % of mobile phone users Smartphone User Penetration Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 North America —US —Canada Western Europe —Norway —Sweden —UK —Denmark —Netherlands —Finland —Spain —France —Germany —Italy —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Latin America —Mexico —Argentina —Brazil —Other Asia-Pacific —South Korea —Australia —Japan —China* —Indonesia —India —Other Middle East & Africa Worldwide 2011 39.0% 39.1% 38.0% 28.7% 46.4% 44.0% 44.1% 39.0% 36.7% 33.0% 21.7% 24.5% 24.5% 24.0% 25.3% 18.1% 15.0% 19.7% 12.1% 15.0% 17.0% 10.2% 11.4% 16.5% 45.0% 40.0% 18.0% 24.0% 9.0% 5.0% 11.2% 7.7% 17.8% 2012 49.8% 50.1% 46.0% 37.5% 54.2% 51.5% 52.5% 46.5% 44.2% 40.5% 35.5% 33.0% 33.0% 31.4% 33.8% 27.9% 25.0% 29.4% 19.3% 28.0% 23.0% 15.9% 18.2% 26.9% 60.0% 53.0% 33.0% 39.0% 16.0% 9.0% 18.2% 13.8% 27.0% 2013 56.3% 56.8% 51.0% 47.4% 63.7% 61.0% 60.4% 56.0% 53.8% 50.0% 47.5% 45.0% 42.0% 41.0% 43.1% 37.9% 35.0% 39.4% 26.9% 39.0% 29.0% 20.8% 26.8% 30.5% 73.0% 66.0% 49.0% 40.0% 24.0% 14.0% 21.6% 21.3% 32.5% 2014 63.2% 63.8% 56.5% 57.1% 74.7% 68.0% 66.7% 67.0% 64.8% 59.5% 57.7% 58.0% 52.0% 50.9% 52.3% 49.3% 47.0% 50.5% 33.2% 45.0% 35.0% 26.8% 33.5% 35.5% 81.0% 76.0% 70.0% 43.0% 34.0% 20.0% 25.7% 27.0% 38.6% 2015 69.1% 70.1% 59.5% 66.2% 85.8% 75.0% 71.7% 78.0% 75.9% 67.0% 65.9% 66.0% 64.8% 61.0% 60.9% 57.3% 55.0% 58.4% 40.2% 52.0% 41.0% 33.1% 41.2% 38.3% 83.0% 78.0% 74.4% 45.0% 40.0% 25.0% 27.9% 30.9% 42.9% 2016 74.1% 75.3% 62.1% 72.4% 94.4% 81.0% 76.6% 86.5% 84.5% 75.5% 70.0% 72.0% 73.0% 66.5% 66.7% 64.3% 63.0% 65.0% 45.7% 58.0% 45.0% 37.4% 47.9% 40.8% 84.0% 79.0% 78.9% 47.0% 47.0% 28.5% 29.8% 34.4% 46.4% 2017 78.3% 79.7% 65.5% 77.1% 97.6% 86.7% 80.9% 92.7% 92.6% 83.2% 73.1% 77.5% 80.0% 68.0% 71.1% 69.7% 69.0% 70.1% 51.2% 64.0% 49.0% 42.5% 53.7% 43.0% 84.8% 80.0% 79.9% 49.0% 53.0% 32.0% 30.7% 37.0% 49.3% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157313 www.eMarketer.com
  • 9. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9 The smartphone populations in India and Indonesia will increase the fastest through 2016. Smartphone adoption is at an early stage in these countries, and costs continue to be a barrier for some consumers. Instead of smartphones, people in India and Indonesia tend to use standard mobile phones with internet capacity to go online. Last year, growth in the number of smartphone users in both countries exceeded 100%, though penetration among their respective populations and mobile phone user bases remains low. The smartphone audiences in Japan and Mexico will also rise significantly, with growth rates around 50% this year. Like South Korea, Japan already has an embedded mobile infrastructure, and the country’s mobile phone users are rapidly switching from internet capable feature phones to smartphones, though this is taking place a bit later. Mexico, on the other hand, still lacks mobile coverage in certain areas outside of urban centers, but infrastructure will continue to expand. Low smartphone reach among mobile phone users in the Middle East and Africa, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe leaves room for significant growth.The Middle East and Africa’s smartphone audience is expected to rise at a rate of 67.4% in 2013 and undergo double-digit increases through 2017. Gains will come in at 43.6% and 39.8% this year for smartphone users in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe, respectively, as adoption rises in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Russia. More affordable devices and plans, combined with the expansion of mobile networks into rural areas, will push usage ahead for places with less developed mobile infrastructures. % change Smartphone User Growth Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Middle East & Africa Asia-Pacific —India —Indonesia —Japan —Australia —South Korea —China* —Other Latin America —Mexico —Brazil —Argentina —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Western Europe —France —Spain —Italy —Germany —Netherlands —Finland —Denmark —Sweden —Norway —UK —Other North America —Canada —US Worldwide 2011 181.4% 132.2% 79.2% 74.0% 180.1% 77.4% 152.1% 139.0% 114.6% 193.1% 168.3% 250.2% 120.4% 204.1% 61.0% 44.2% 68.9% 69.2% 48.9% 71.2% 95.4% 151.2% 23.0% 24.5% 20.7% 18.3% 17.9% 64.6% 82.2% 48.2% 38.6% 49.1% 101.4% 2012 96.3% 81.0% 103.3% 123.7% 85.4% 39.7% 34.4% 83.4% 72.9% 73.8% 99.6% 83.9% 40.2% 64.7% 58.5% 71.2% 53.6% 33.8% 38.1% 66.9% 33.7% 37.4% 23.1% 23.0% 21.4% 19.2% 17.5% 22.3% 36.4% 30.5% 27.0% 30.8% 65.1% 2013 67.4% 21.2% 73.7% 58.4% 50.1% 29.5% 22.6% 8.7% 26.4% 43.6% 48.5% 33.8% 30.6% 51.2% 39.8% 43.7% 38.2% 28.6% 39.7% 36.8% 33.0% 29.6% 24.0% 23.7% 22.5% 20.5% 18.6% 17.2% 29.8% 15.3% 15.6% 15.3% 27.3% 2014 35.1% 23.2% 58.1% 47.2% 44.4% 19.6% 11.8% 12.2% 26.0% 28.0% 22.6% 34.5% 23.4% 27.9% 33.8% 37.7% 32.0% 22.8% 31.6% 24.0% 26.2% 26.2% 22.9% 19.2% 21.6% 13.3% 17.8% 11.9% 23.5% 14.3% 15.4% 14.2% 24.5% 2015 21.5% 14.1% 37.3% 22.1% 7.4% 5.3% 3.2% 9.0% 15.3% 24.9% 21.6% 28.6% 19.7% 25.4% 19.3% 19.9% 19.0% 17.8% 16.0% 16.6% 21.6% 26.6% 18.8% 12.9% 17.8% 11.6% 15.4% 9.2% 18.2% 11.2% 9.2% 11.3% 16.2% 2016 18.1% 11.3% 22.2% 20.2% 6.4% 3.4% 1.9% 8.0% 12.2% 17.5% 17.1% 17.9% 12.1% 18.6% 15.1% 17.3% 14.1% 10.6% 10.9% 8.2% 10.5% 13.8% 12.6% 13.0% 12.0% 9.1% 10.5% 7.9% 10.8% 8.7% 7.7% 8.8% 12.5% 2017 14.0% 9.6% 19.9% 15.3% 1.6% 3.3% 1.6% 7.7% 7.2% 15.1% 15.2% 16.6% 10.8% 14.8% 11.1% 12.1% 10.6% 7.7% 8.7% 6.3% 3.6% 10.6% 10.9% 10.5% 8.3% 7.9% 3.7% 6.5% 7.7% 7.1% 7.7% 7.0% 10.2% Note: individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157332 www.eMarketer.com
  • 10. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10 MOBILE PHONE INTERNET USERS WORLDWIDE eMarketer projects that there will be 1.88 billion mobile phone internet users worldwide in 2013. Nearly three out of four internet users will regularly go online via a mobile browser or application at least once per month.This year, mobile phone internet users will account for more than one-quarter of the global population. The number of mobile internet users worldwide will grow 21.1% this year. eMarketer expects double-digit increases through 2016. People who access the internet on their mobile phone will account for more than half of mobile phone users worldwide by 2015. By 2017, nine out of 10 internet users will regularly go online via mobile.The expansion of mobile data networks—especially in rural areas of developing countries with rising middle classes— and the proliferation of advanced feature phones and smartphones will push adoption ahead. eMarketer has revised our projections for total mobile phone internet users upward for the entirety of the forecast period based on new data portraying faster adoption of mobile phone internet usage in the UK, Germany, Spain, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, China, Indonesia and the Middle East and Africa. Mobile Phone Internet Users and Penetration Worldwide, 2011-2017 Mobile phone internet users (billions) —% change —% of mobile users —% of internet users —% of population 2011 1.15 46.2% 30.7% 55.0% 16.6% 2012 1.55 34.7% 38.1% 66.7% 22.1% 2013 1.88 21.1% 43.7% 73.4% 26.5% 2014 2.19 16.4% 48.4% 79.1% 30.5% 2015 2.48 13.4% 52.5% 84.5% 34.3% 2016 2.74 10.4% 55.7% 88.5% 37.4% 2017 2.96 7.9% 57.9% 91.2% 39.9% Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/MMS is not considered mobile internet access Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157156 www.eMarketer.com Asia-Pacific’s mobile phone internet population will surpass 1 billion by the end of 2013.The region’s mobile phone audience will be bigger than all of the other regions combined through 2017. Despite its large number of smartphone users, a significant portion of mobile phone internet users in Asia-Pacific use internet-capable feature phones for web access. China’s massive mobile phone internet audience will make up more than one-half of Asia-Pacific’s mobile phone internet population. With 556.1 million people going online via their mobile phone regularly this year, there will be more mobile phone internet users in China alone than in the Middle East and Africa, Western Europe, North America, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe.The US will follow China, with a mobile phone internet user population of 143.2 million people. India will have the third-largest audience, at 120.7 million. The Middle East and Africa will have the second-largest mobile phone internet population among the regions included in our forecast. However, the region has the second-smallest smartphone user population. eMarketer believes that more than half of the Middle East and Africa’s mobile phone internet users will go online via advanced feature phones this year. Similarly, a large portion of mobile phone internet users in India, Japan, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia will be consumers accessing the internet via connected feature phones.
  • 11. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11 millions Mobile Phone Internet Users Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Asia-Pacific —China* —India —Japan —Indonesia —South Korea —Australia —Other Middle East & Africa North America —US —Canada Western Europe —UK —Germany —France —Italy —Spain —Netherlands —Sweden —Denmark —Norway —Finland —Other Latin America —Brazil —Mexico —Argentina —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Worldwide 2011 651.2 375.6 49.9 60.3 24.8 20.2 7.0 113.5 153.0 107.3 98.6 8.7 100.7 22.7 17.0 12.7 12.5 9.8 5.3 3.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 11.8 68.3 25.2 11.2 5.8 26.1 71.9 24.3 47.6 1,152.5 2012 877.7 500.1 84.6 66.3 41.0 26.2 9.6 149.9 196.8 135.7 124.7 11.0 131.1 27.1 22.4 17.6 16.2 15.2 6.5 3.9 2.3 2.4 2.0 15.6 108.0 38.3 19.9 8.0 41.9 102.8 34.7 68.1 1,552.1 2013 1,023.5 556.1 120.7 73.6 57.2 31.4 12.4 172.2 241.5 155.8 143.2 12.6 166.5 31.5 28.8 24.2 20.9 20.4 7.9 4.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 20.0 154.0 53.1 27.9 10.4 62.7 138.8 46.7 92.1 1,880.1 2014 1,154.0 596.5 162.7 80.3 72.0 34.6 14.7 193.1 279.0 177.4 162.9 14.5 203.2 35.1 36.1 31.5 26.4 25.0 9.6 5.3 3.3 3.3 2.9 24.6 193.8 72.1 33.9 12.7 75.2 181.6 61.5 120.0 2,189.0 2015 1,286.4 644.1 204.3 87.2 84.1 35.7 15.3 215.6 309.6 196.8 181.0 15.8 237.8 38.3 45.7 36.4 31.9 28.5 11.2 5.8 3.9 3.8 3.3 28.9 239.1 93.5 40.8 15.1 89.6 213.0 71.2 141.7 2,482.6 2016 1,403.6 677.9 246.3 93.1 99.4 36.4 15.8 234.7 341.7 213.7 196.7 17.0 262.1 41.2 51.7 40.3 35.2 30.7 12.6 6.3 4.3 4.1 3.7 31.9 279.4 112.2 47.6 16.9 102.7 239.7 80.1 159.6 2,740.3 2017 1,501.9 712.4 277.7 96.8 109.4 36.9 16.4 252.3 370.6 228.4 210.2 18.1 281.6 43.9 57.1 43.7 36.4 32.6 13.7 6.8 4.7 4.3 4.0 34.4 309.7 120.8 54.5 18.7 115.7 263.5 88.1 175.4 2,955.7 Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/ MMS is not considered mobile internet access; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157158 www.eMarketer.com Mobile phone internet usage will closely reflect smartphone usage for most countries and regions. However, percentages of mobile phone users among their respective populations will be slightly higher than those of smartphone users due to the use of feature phones with internet capabilities.This year, the percentages of mobile phone users among the respective populations of Sweden, Australia, Japan and Norway will be between 50% and 60%, while 64.1% of people in South Korea will access the internet via mobile phones regularly.These countries will also have the highest mobile phone internet user penetration rates among mobile phone users. Japan, which has a high prevalence of advanced feature phones, will have the third-highest mobile phone internet user penetration rate this year, at 57.8% of the population, but a much lower percentage (41.7%) of smartphone users. North America will have the highest regional reach in terms of mobile phone internet users as a percentage of its population through 2017.This year, mobile phone internet users will represent 44.4% of the region’s total population. Next year, more than half of the people residing in North America will go online using their mobile phone. Western Europe will have the second-highest penetration rate for the entirety of the forecast period, with four out of every 10 people in the region accessing the internet via mobile this year. Mobile phone internet user penetration will be the lowest among residents in India, Indonesia, and the Middle East and Africa for the entirety of the forecast period.The majority of these users will be in areas outside of major cities with low access to internet connections.Though the Middle East and Africa has the second-largest mobile phone internet population among the regions included in our forecast, just 17.8% of people in the region will access the internet via a mobile phone regularly in 2013. Less than 10% of India’s population will be mobile phone internet users this year.
  • 12. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12 % of population in each group Mobile Phone Internet User Penetration Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 North America —US —Canada Western Europe —Norway —Sweden —Denmark —UK —Finland —Netherlands —Spain —France —Germany —Italy —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Asia-Pacific —South Korea —Japan —Australia —China* —Indonesia —India —Other Latin America —Brazil —Argentina —Mexico —Other Middle East & Africa Worldwide 2011 31.0% 31.6% 25.6% 24.4% 43.4% 36.3% 33.8% 36.2% 31.6% 31.9% 20.9% 19.5% 20.9% 20.4% 21.7% 16.8% 17.0% 16.7% 16.8% 41.4% 47.3% 32.0% 28.1% 10.1% 4.2% 12.6% 11.7% 12.7% 13.9% 9.9% 11.2% 11.8% 16.6% 2012 39.0% 39.7% 32.0% 31.6% 50.7% 43.1% 40.8% 42.7% 38.5% 38.6% 32.3% 26.8% 27.6% 26.4% 28.6% 24.0% 24.3% 23.8% 22.5% 53.6% 52.1% 43.7% 37.2% 16.5% 7.0% 16.5% 18.2% 19.2% 19.0% 17.3% 17.7% 14.9% 22.1% 2013 44.4% 45.3% 36.5% 40.0% 59.6% 51.6% 49.7% 49.3% 47.2% 47.1% 43.1% 36.7% 35.5% 34.1% 36.6% 32.3% 32.8% 32.1% 26.0% 64.1% 57.8% 55.6% 41.2% 22.8% 9.9% 18.7% 25.7% 26.4% 24.3% 24.0% 26.2% 17.8% 26.5% 2014 50.1% 51.1% 41.7% 48.7% 69.4% 57.9% 59.7% 54.6% 55.8% 56.8% 52.3% 47.6% 44.6% 42.7% 44.8% 42.2% 43.2% 41.8% 29.0% 70.5% 63.2% 65.5% 44.0% 28.4% 13.2% 20.7% 32.1% 35.6% 29.5% 28.8% 31.1% 20.1% 30.5% 2015 55.2% 56.3% 45.0% 56.7% 79.1% 63.9% 69.6% 59.0% 62.8% 66.3% 59.1% 54.7% 56.5% 51.6% 52.5% 49.5% 50.0% 49.2% 32.0% 72.7% 68.7% 67.4% 47.3% 32.9% 16.3% 22.8% 39.1% 45.8% 34.9% 34.4% 36.7% 21.9% 34.3% 2016 59.5% 60.7% 48.0% 62.3% 86.6% 69.2% 77.4% 62.9% 69.5% 73.8% 63.3% 60.3% 64.1% 56.8% 57.8% 55.6% 56.3% 55.3% 34.7% 74.0% 73.5% 68.9% 49.6% 38.5% 19.4% 24.5% 45.3% 54.5% 38.6% 39.7% 41.6% 23.6% 37.4% 2017 63.1% 64.4% 50.9% 66.7% 89.5% 74.4% 83.4% 66.4% 76.6% 80.5% 66.6% 65.2% 70.8% 58.7% 62.0% 61.1% 61.9% 60.7% 36.8% 75.0% 76.6% 70.4% 51.9% 42.0% 21.7% 26.0% 49.8% 58.3% 42.4% 45.0% 46.3% 25.1% 39.9% Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/ MMS is not considered mobile internet access; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157164 www.eMarketer.com Emerging markets will have the highest percentages of mobile phone internet users among their respective internet user populations. Approximately nine out of 10 internet users in China and the Middle East and Africa will go online via mobile at least once per month this year, while mobile phone internet user penetration rates among internet users will be between 75% and 85% for India, Japan, Indonesia and the overall Asia-Pacific region. Many people in these areas use their mobile phone as their primary device to access the internet.The increase in the number of mobile internet users in these countries has boosted their growing online audiences. Less than half of internet users in Germany, Mexico, Canada and Argentina will regularly access the web via their mobile phone. Internet users in Germany have lagged in smartphone and mobile phone internet adoption compared with those in other countries in Western Europe, but this is expected to catch up by the end of the forecast period. For internet users in Mexico, data plans can be cost-prohibitive, and mobile coverage is not as widespread as it is in other countries. Canada also lacks coverage in some of its rural areas, and data plans are more expensive than in the US, which likely causes small penetration rates. Lower mobile phone internet usage among internet users in Argentina is due to high taxes and import fees on smartphones instituted by the government.These fees tend to inflate prices so high that they are inaccessible for many customers. Since smartphone usage typically leads to mobile internet access, any disruption to smartphone adoption means a barrier for mobile internet growth.
  • 13. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13 % of internet users in each group Mobile Phone Internet User Penetration Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Middle East & Africa Asia-Pacific —China* —Indonesia —Japan —India —Australia —South Korea —Other North America —US —Canada Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Western Europe —UK —Spain —Italy —Norway —France —Denmark —Sweden —Finland —Netherlands —Germany —Other Latin America —Brazil —Mexico —Argentina —Other Worldwide 2011 82.8% 68.1% 73.2% 57.5% 62.9% 55.0% 43.5% 33.1% 82.5% 41.6% 42.6% 34.0% 36.6% 37.3% 36.3% 37.5% 50.3% 33.8% 41.4% 47.2% 31.9% 39.3% 39.5% 35.9% 35.5% 30.6% 37.4% 29.4% 31.8% 26.6% 27.8% 29.0% 55.0% 2012 88.9% 80.9% 87.8% 68.8% 68.6% 68.8% 58.5% 53.8% 93.4% 51.1% 52.5% 42.1% 47.8% 48.6% 47.3% 47.5% 58.1% 50.9% 51.5% 54.5% 43.1% 46.9% 46.3% 43.2% 42.5% 39.3% 47.9% 40.8% 42.8% 40.7% 34.9% 40.3% 66.7% 2013 92.7% 84.5% 89.6% 78.5% 75.5% 74.7% 73.6% 68.6% 94.9% 57.3% 58.8% 47.8% 59.4% 60.2% 59.0% 58.8% 65.7% 65.6% 64.1% 63.4% 58.2% 56.5% 54.9% 52.4% 51.2% 49.5% 59.5% 51.4% 53.5% 49.4% 41.4% 52.7% 73.4% 2014 94.0% 87.3% 90.7% 86.1% 81.8% 80.0% 86.2% 81.7% 95.1% 63.7% 65.5% 54.2% 72.6% 74.2% 71.8% 70.1% 71.7% 77.5% 77.7% 73.0% 74.2% 67.1% 60.9% 61.3% 61.1% 61.3% 71.2% 58.9% 66.9% 54.0% 46.9% 57.1% 79.1% 2015 94.0% 91.1% 94.1% 90.0% 88.5% 85.2% 88.4% 89.4% 96.7% 69.1% 71.2% 58.3% 80.8% 81.6% 80.4% 80.6% 76.6% 86.1% 91.1% 83.2% 84.2% 77.3% 67.2% 68.2% 70.6% 77.0% 81.9% 67.5% 82.2% 59.7% 52.2% 62.6% 84.5% 2016 95.0% 93.8% 95.3% 96.7% 94.2% 90.8% 90.1% 91.7% 98.0% 73.7% 76.2% 61.8% 86.8% 87.7% 86.4% 87.6% 80.8% 91.7% 97.9% 91.2% 91.7% 85.0% 72.8% 75.5% 78.6% 86.8% 88.9% 74.2% 93.6% 64.7% 56.8% 67.0% 88.5% 2017 96.0% 95.1% 96.3% 97.2% 97.8% 92.2% 92.0% 93.1% 98.9% 78.5% 80.2% 65.3% 91.9% 93.4% 91.2% 93.1% 84.8% 96.1% 98.9% 94.2% 98.0% 91.7% 78.3% 83.2% 85.6% 95.5% 94.2% 78.5% 98.0% 69.7% 61.4% 71.2% 91.2% Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/ MMS is not considered mobile internet access; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157183 www.eMarketer.com Regionally, the mobile phone internet audience of Latin America will grow the fastest through 2017. The mobile broadband subscriber user base in the region is undergoing massive expansion, and the rate of smartphone adoption will remain in the double digits through 2017. Advanced feature phones and more affordable plans and devices will also help push growth ahead. At 35.0% this year, the growth rate of the mobile phone internet population in Central and Eastern Europe is not far behind Latin America’s. The mobile phone internet populations in India, Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil will have the strongest increases in new users in 2013. Beginning next year, Brazil will surpass India to have the fastest growth in the number of mobile phone internet users, while Russia will have the third-highest gains. Continued investments in 3G networks and, to a lesser extent, 4G networks; the adoption of smartphones; emerging middle classes; and competitively priced devices and plans from manufacturers and carriers will spur the majority of this growth. Many governments and telecom companies have found that investments in wireless mobile data networks are more cost-effective than investments in physical broadband connections. In addition,The Wall Street Journal reported in May 2013 that Google is planning to build and administer wireless internet access to emerging markets outside of major cities in areas such as sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia that currently lack access.This plan includes the availability of low-cost Android smartphones that will be able to connect to the networks. This year, the mobile phone internet user populations in Japan, China and the US will expand more slowly than those in other countries.The growth rates of the number of mobile phone internet users in each of these countries will be below 15% in 2013.The mobile phone internet audiences in the UK and Canada will also be relatively mature. Users in these countries tended to go online via feature phones and advanced feature phones before smartphones began to reach mainstream consumers. In addition, smartphone adoption, which is a leading driver of mobile phone internet usage, took place earlier in these countries. Users will continue to adopt smartphones in large numbers in these areas but at a slower pace.
  • 14. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14 % change Mobile Phone Internet User Growth Worldwide, by Region and Country, 2011-2017 Latin America —Mexico —Brazil —Argentina —Other Central & Eastern Europe —Russia —Other Western Europe —France —Spain —Italy —Germany —Finland —Netherlands —Denmark —Sweden —Norway —UK —Other Middle East & Africa Asia-Pacific —India —Indonesia —Australia —South Korea —China* —Japan —Other North America —Canada —US Worldwide 2011 142.2% 126.5% 221.3% 107.5% 107.0% 45.6% 35.1% 51.6% 45.6% 34.3% 46.2% 44.8% 81.1% 21.7% 20.0% 18.8% 16.4% 16.1% 48.9% 52.1% 96.8% 35.9% 115.0% 157.1% 71.9% 64.7% 29.5% 8.8% 34.4% 26.4% 28.2% 26.3% 46.2% 2012 58.1% 77.3% 52.0% 38.2% 60.1% 42.9% 42.9% 42.9% 30.2% 38.0% 55.5% 29.7% 31.8% 21.9% 21.6% 21.0% 18.8% 17.1% 19.1% 32.3% 28.6% 34.8% 69.4% 65.6% 38.1% 29.6% 33.2% 10.1% 32.1% 26.5% 25.9% 26.5% 34.7% 2013 42.5% 40.0% 38.8% 29.4% 49.7% 35.0% 34.7% 35.2% 27.0% 37.6% 34.4% 29.7% 28.4% 22.6% 22.6% 22.0% 20.0% 18.1% 16.3% 28.1% 22.7% 16.6% 42.7% 39.4% 28.6% 20.0% 11.2% 10.9% 14.9% 14.8% 15.1% 14.8% 21.1% 2014 25.9% 21.4% 35.7% 22.7% 20.1% 30.9% 31.8% 30.4% 22.0% 30.4% 22.5% 25.9% 25.4% 18.3% 21.1% 20.5% 12.3% 16.7% 11.7% 22.8% 15.5% 12.7% 34.8% 25.9% 19.1% 10.2% 7.3% 9.2% 12.1% 13.8% 14.9% 13.7% 16.4% 2015 23.3% 20.6% 29.7% 19.2% 19.2% 17.3% 15.7% 18.1% 17.0% 15.6% 13.9% 21.0% 26.5% 12.6% 17.2% 16.7% 10.6% 14.4% 9.0% 17.5% 11.0% 11.5% 25.6% 16.8% 4.0% 3.2% 8.0% 8.6% 11.7% 11.0% 9.0% 11.1% 13.4% 2016 16.9% 16.5% 20.0% 11.9% 14.6% 12.5% 12.5% 12.6% 10.2% 10.6% 8.0% 10.3% 13.2% 10.7% 11.8% 11.5% 8.6% 9.9% 7.5% 10.4% 10.4% 9.1% 20.6% 18.2% 3.4% 1.9% 5.2% 6.8% 8.9% 8.6% 7.4% 8.7% 10.4% 2017 10.9% 14.6% 7.7% 10.6% 12.6% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 7.4% 8.5% 6.1% 3.5% 10.3% 10.2% 9.4% 8.1% 7.7% 3.6% 6.5% 7.6% 8.4% 7.0% 12.7% 10.1% 3.2% 1.5% 5.1% 4.0% 7.5% 6.9% 6.9% 6.9% 7.9% Note: mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/ MMS is not considered mobile internet access; *excludes Hong Kong Source: eMarketer, May 2013 157190 www.eMarketer.com EMARKETER METHODOLOGY AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES eMarketer uses a unique methodology to form our figures for mobile phone, mobile phone internet and smartphone audiences worldwide.We find our estimates through an analysis of various elements related to mobile phone, mobile internet and smartphone usage—including macro-level economic conditions, population figures, internet and broadband adoption, consumer attitudes, historical trends, survey data from third parties, and estimates from other research firms, investment banks and other forecasters—at a country and regional level before building our worldwide model. For example, when evaluating the mobile phone, mobile phone internet and smartphone audiences in the US, the UK and China, eMarketer considered datapoints from dozens of sources on sales and market share by brand, growth in mobile infrastructure and investment, select mobile activity penetration, and other mobile trends— including, but not limited to, those included on the following charts—before forming our own forecast. In all, eMarketer analyzed more than 1,000 data sets from over 200 research sources—whose figures we track and evaluate based on their respective methodologies, definitions and historical accuracy—looking at more than 22 markets and six major regions before forming our worldwide figures. US eMarketer estimated the lowest mobile phone user penetration rate as a percentage of the US population for 2012. Higher estimates from Arbitron, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, Prosper Mobile Insights and MasterCard Worldwide are likely due to their inclusion of individuals ages 12, 16 or 18 and older. Nielsen reported that 94.0% of US residents ages 16 and older own mobile phones.The company, which derives its penetration rate through online interviews with US mobile users, estimates higher-than-average figures for all countries with reported penetration rates, indicating an overall skew toward higher penetration levels based on its methodology. eMarketer counts individuals of any age, which skews our penetration rate downward.
  • 15. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15 Comparative Estimates: US Mobile Phone Users and Penetration, 2011-2013 Mobile phone users (millions) eMarketer, March 2013 (1) Cisco Systems, Feb 2013 (2) Mobile phone user penetration (% of population) Prosper Mobile Insights, April 2013 (3) eMarketer, March 2013 (1) Ipsos, May 2013 (4) Nielsen, Feb 2013 (5) Arbitron, April 2012 (6) Pew Internet & American Life Project, Feb 2013 (7) MasterCard Worldwide, May 2012 (8) 2011 237.4 - 86.0% 76.2% - - 84.0% 83.0% - 2012 242.2 263.1 85.7% 77.1% - 94.0% 88.0% 87.0% 81.0% 2013 246.5 - 87.7% 77.9% 71.0% - - - - Note: (1) individuals who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month; (2) includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes devices connected via Wi-Fi; (3) adult users; data is for Jan of each year; (4) ages 18-64; data is for Jan; (5) ages 16+; (6) ages 12+; (7) ages 18+; 2011 data is for May; 2012 data is for Dec; (8) ages 18+ Source: eMarketer, March 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 159549 www.eMarketer.com Five of the seven sources providing estimates for smartphone users as a percentage of mobile phone users in the US, including eMarketer, believe that penetration was greater than 50% for 2012. We include smartphone users of all ages in our projection and report the lowest figure. Nielsen, the Pew Internet & American Life Project, The NPD Group andThe Media Audit all count users 18 and older, which skews penetration upward. Portio Research, which reported a much lower estimate than any of the other sources, counts active smartphone subscriptions as a percentage of mobile subscriptions to determine its figure.This larger base of mobile subscriptions contributed to its lower penetration rate. Comparative Estimates: US Smartphone Users and Penetration, 2011-2017 Smartphone users (millions) IDC, March 2013 Portio Research, Dec 2012 Frank N. Magid Associates, July 2012 (1) eMarketer, March 2013 (2) comScore Inc., April 2013 (3) Cisco Systems, Feb 2013 (4) CTIA-The Wireless Association, May 2013 (5) Nielsen, July 2012 (6) Credit Suisse, Dec 2012 Yankee Group, Feb 2012 Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users) The NPD Group, March 2013 (7) comScore Inc., April 2013 (3) eMarketer, March 2013 (2) GroupM, March 2013 Pew Internet & American Life Project, June 2013 (8) Portio Research, Dec 2012 Nielsen, July 2012 (8) The Media Audit, March 2013 Yankee Group, Feb 2012 2011 - - 99.0 92.8 - - 111.5 107.0 93.0 97.0 - - 39.1% 39.0% 33.0% - 48.0% - 43.0% 2012 155.1 137.0 - 121.4 - 172.0 152.1 148.0 123.0 - 52.0% - 50.1% 48.0% 53.0% 40.0% 55.0% 52.9% - 2013 181.4 176.0 151.0 140.0 133.7 - - - - - 57.0% 57.0% 56.8% 56.0% 55.0% 49.0% - - - 2014 - - - 159.9 - - - - - - - - 63.8% - - - - - - 2015 - - - 178.0 - - - - - 175.0 - - 70.1% - - - - - - 2016 - 279.0 - 193.7 - - - - - - - - 75.3% - - 70.0% - - - 2017 222.4 - - 207.4 - 304.0 - - - - - - 79.7% - - - - - - Note: (1) data is for June of each year; (2) individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; (3) data is for Feb; (4) includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes devices connected via Wi-Fi; (5) active smartphones; includes wireless-enabled PDAs; data is for Dec of each year; (6) ages 13+; data is for Q4 of each year; (7) 2012 data is for Q4; 2013 data is for Q1; (8) ages 18+ Source: eMarketer, March 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 160119 www.eMarketer.com
  • 16. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16 The three sources providing estimates for US mobile phone internet users as a percentage of mobile phone users for 2012 all agree that penetration was more than 50% last year.The University of California at Berkeley, which reported a penetration rate of 56.0% for 2012, counts mobile internet users as those ages 18 and older who visit any type of mobile website. As a result, its estimate is slightly higher than eMarketer’s and the Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project’s. eMarketer and Pew have similar outlooks, with reported penetration rates of 51.5% and 51.0%, respectively. We define mobile internet users as mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month, while Pew counts mobile phone users ages 18 and older who “ever use the internet on mobile phones.” Comparative Estimates: US Mobile Internet Users and Penetration, 2011-2016 Mobile internet users (millions) eMarketer*, March 2013 IDC, Oct 2012 Forrester Research**, March 2012 Mobile internet user penetration (% of mobile phone users) eMarketer*, March 2013 University of California at Berkeley***, July 2012 Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project***, Dec 2012 2011 - 98.6 114.0 41.5% - 43.0% 2012 124.7 174.0 - 51.5% 56.0% 51.0% 2013 143.2 - - 58.1% - - 2014 162.9 - - 65.0% - - 2015 181.0 - - 71.2% - - 2016 196.7 265.0 - 76.5% - - Note: *mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/MMS is not considered mobile internet access; excludes usage via tablets; **use at least monthly; ***ages 18+ Source: eMarketer, March 2013; various, as noted, 2012 156080 www.eMarketer.com UK Like its 2012 estimate for mobile phone users as a percentage of the US population, Nielsen’s figure for that of the UK’s population is also much higher than reported figures from other sources, at 97.0%.The UK’s Office of Communications and the Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project both estimate that 92.0% of people in the UK used mobile phones last year, while Google reported a penetration rate of 87.0%.These figures, which are higher than our estimate of 79.4%, skew upward due to the inclusion of users ages 16 or 18 and older. Wireless Intelligence, which also forecast an 87.0% reach, defines mobile users as unique subscribers who can have more than one connection to any mobile service. millions and % of population Comparative Estimates: UK Mobile Phone Users and Penetration, 2011-2017 Mobile phone users (millions) eMarketer, April 2013 (1) Cisco Systems, Feb 2013 (2) mobileSQUARED, Jan 2012 (3) comScore Inc., Feb 2013 (4) Mobile phone user penetration (% of population) Ipsos, May 2013 (5) eMarketer, April 2013 (1) 81.2% Nielsen, Feb 2013 (6) Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, Dec 2012 (7) Ofcom, July 2012 (8) Wireless Intelligence, Oct 2012 (9) Google, May 2012 (10) 2011 48.8 - 50.6 - - 77.8% - 89.0% - - - 2012 50.3 55.6 51.2 49.5 - 79.4% 97.0% 92.0% 92.0% 87.0% 87.0% 2013 51.2 - - - 83.0% 80.1% - - - - - 2014 51.9 - - - - 80.6% - - - - - 2015 52.6 - - - - 81.1% - - - - - 2016 53.2 - - - - - - - - - 2017 53.7 58.6 - - - 81.3% - - - 89.0% - Note: (1) individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month; (2) includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes devices connected via Wi-Fi; (3) data is for Q2 of each year; (4) ages 13+; three-month average for period ending Dec 2012; (5) ages 16-64; Great Britain only; data is for Jan; (6) ages 16+; (7) ages 18+ in Great Britain; own a mobile phone; data is for Spring of each year; (8) ages 16+; data is for Q1; (9) unique subscribers who can have more than one connection; (10) ages 16+; data is for Feb Source: eMarketer, April 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 160122 www.eMarketer.com Estimates for UK smartphone users as a percentage of mobile phone users in 2012 span a broad range, from 44.0% to 74.0%. Like its projection for smartphone users as a percentage of mobile phone users in the US, Portio Research reported the lowest estimate for those in the UK due to its methodology of counting smartphone connections as a percentage of mobile phone connections. On the other extreme, mobileSQUARED forecast that three out of four UK mobile phone subscribers subscribed to smartphones last year.The company’s methodology of counting “subscribers” as opposed to “regular users” results in its higher forecast compared with other estimates, as many mobile subscribers use “pay-as-you-go” plans. mobileSQUARED estimated a much faster growth rate in the number of smartphones for 2012 than eMarketer, driven by a higher number of Android devices.
  • 17. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 17 Projections from comScore and Nielsen are more conservative but also on the high end. comScore includes UK smartphone users ages 13 and older and derives its estimates from a three-month average for the period ending December 2012. Nielsen’s estimated penetration falls right below comScore’s. Nielsen has historically reported penetration figures on the higher end based on its methodology. eMarketer’s estimate has UK smartphone users accounting for just over half of mobile phone users in 2012.The inclusion of users of all ages tends to bring our estimate down compared with other sources. millions and % of mobile phone users Comparative Estimates: UK Smartphone Users and Penetration, 2011-2017 Smartphone users (millions) Portio Research, Jan 2013 eMarketer, April 2013 (1) Cisco Systems, Feb 2013 (2) comScore MobiLens, Feb 2012 (3) Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users) GroupM, March 2013 eMarketer, April 2013 (1) Portio Research, Jan 2013 mobileSQUARED, Jan 2012 (4) comScore Inc., Feb 2013 (5) Nielsen, Feb 2013 (6) 2011 - 21.6 - 25.4 48.0% 44.1% - 52.0% - - 2012 36.0 26.4 35.0 - 62.0% 52.5% 44.0% 74.0% 64.0% 61.0% 2013 44.0 30.9 - - 70.0% 60.4% 53.0% - - - 2014 - 34.6 - - - 66.7% - - - - 2015 - 37.8 - - - 71.7% - - - - 2016 63.0 40.7 - - - 76.6% 75.0% - - - 2017 - 43.4 60.0 - - 80.9% - - - - Note: (1) individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; (2) refers to connections; includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes devices connected via Wi-Fi; (3) three-month average for period ending Dec 2011; (4) data is for Q2 of each year; (5) ages 13+; three-month average for period ending Dec 2012 (6) data is for Q1 Source: eMarketer, April 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 160130 www.eMarketer.com As for mobile phone internet users as a percentage of mobile phone users in the US, eMarketer has a similar outlook as Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project for the UK in 2012. Pew’s estimate is slightly lower—by just 1.8 percentage points—and both sources have the same definition for mobile internet users in the UK as for those in the US. comScore MobiLens, which has a projection 2.7 percentage points above eMarketer’s, includes mobile internet users ages 13 and older. Its figure for last year comes from a three-month average ending July 2012. InSites Consulting, which estimates that nearly two out of every three UK mobile phone users ages 15 and older accessed the internet via their phone daily in 2012, has historically reported higher forecasts than other sources. Comparative Estimates: UK Mobile Internet Users and Penetration, 2011 & 2012 Mobile internet users (millions) mobileSQUARED, Jan 2012 (1) eMarketer, April 2013 (2) Mobile internet user penetration (% of mobile phone users) InSites Consulting, Sep 2012 (3) comScore MobiLens, Sep 2012 (4) eMarketer, April 2013 (2) Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, Dec 2012 (5) 2011 23.5 22.7 - 46.9% 46.5% 38.0% 2012 30.4 27.1 65.0% 56.5% 53.8% 52.0% Note: (1) data is for Q2 of each year; (2) mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/MMS is not considered mobile internet access; excludes usage via tablet; (3) smartphone users ages 15+; daily users; data is for Q2; (4) ages 13+; three-month average for periods ending Sep 2011 and July 2012; (5) ages 18+ in Great Britain; data is for Spring of each year Source: eMarketer, April 2013; various, as noted, 2012 159703 www.eMarketer.com
  • 18. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 18 CHINA There is a vast difference in 2012 projections from sources for mobile phone users in China as a percentage of its population. On the high end, Sinomonitor and the Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project reported respective penetration rates of 95.6% and 93.0%, while Nielsen estimates that 89.0% of residents in China were mobile phone users last year. Nielsen derives its figures from an online survey—which is likely to include audiences who tend to be more technologically inclined— and counts users ages 16 and older. Pew includes people 18 and older with a skew toward those living in urban areas.The extremely high estimate from Sinomonitor is due to the inclusion of users ages 15 to 64 who live in one of 35 specific cities and own a mobile phone. eMarketer estimates that nearly three out of four people in China used a mobile phone in 2012 and defines mobile phone users as individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use it at least once per month. GSMA forecast the low figure of 43.0% and defines mobile users as unique subscribers who can have more than one connection to any mobile service. Comparative Estimates: Mobile Phone Users and Penetration in China, 2011-2017 Mobile phone users (millions) eMarketer, May 2013 (1) Cisco Systems, Feb 2013 (2) Mobile phone user penetration (% of population) Ipsos, May 2013 (3) eMarketer, May 2013 (1) Sinomonitor, June 2013 (4) Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, Dec 2012 (5) Nielsen, Feb 2013 (6) GSMA, Oct 2012 (7) Gartner, March 2012 2011 868.9 - - 65.0% - 93.0% - - 71.0% 2012 980.6 826.7 - 73.0% 95.6% 93.0% 89.0% 43.0% - 2013 1,039.2 - 84.0% 77.0% 96.7% - - - - 2014 1,084.6 - - 80.0% - - - - - 83.0% 2015 1,130.1 - - - - - - - 2016 1,168.8 - - 85.5% - - - - 119.0% 2017 1,207.4 998.1 - 88.0% - - - 52.0% - Note: (1) individuals of any age who own at least one mobile phone and use the phone(s) at least once per month; excludes Hong Kong; (2) includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes devices connected via Wi-Fi; (3) ages 16-64; data is for Jan; (4) ages 15-64; living in 35 cities; (5) ages 18+; (6) ages 16+; (7) unique subscribers who can have more than one connection Source: eMarketer, May 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 159706 www.eMarketer.com eMarketer’s and Nielsen’s estimates for smartphone users as a percentage of mobile phone users in China for 2012 deviate greatly—66.0% vs. 39.0%. Nielsen’s sample is for users ages 16 and older, which skews estimates upward, while our inclusion of audiences of all ages will limit penetration rates. Estimates from eMarketer and Kantar Worldpanel for 2013 are more in line. millions and % of mobile phone users Comparative Estimates: Smartphone Users and Penetration in China, 2011-2017 Smartphone users (millions) iResearch Consulting Group, Feb 2013 (1) eMarketer, May 2013 (2) Yankee Group, June 2012 Cisco Systems, Feb 2013 (3) MIIT, Jan 2013 Portio Research, Nov 2012 Smartphone user penetration (% of mobile phone users) Kantar Worldpanel, April 2013 (4) eMarketer, May 2013 (2) GroupM, March 2013 Nielsen, Jan 2013 (5) 2011 200.0 208.5 - - - - - 24.0% 9.0% - 2012 360.0 382.4 170.0 270.0 232.8 - - 39.0% 16.0% 66.0% 2013 500.0 415.7 229.0 - - - 42.0% 40.0% 25.0% - 2014 570.0 466.4 293.0 - - - - 43.0% - - 2015 640.0 508.5 358.0 - - - - 45.0% - - 2016 710.0 549.3 420.0 - - 555.0 - 47.0% - - 2017 - 591.6 - 551.0 - - - 49.0% - - Note: (1) smartphones in use by the end of each year; (2) individuals of any age who own at least one smartphone and use the smartphone(s) at least once per month; excludes Hong Kong; (3) includes only devices connected to the mobile network; excludes devices connected via Wi-Fi; (4) urban sample; phones currently in use; data is for Q1; (5) ages 16+ Source: eMarketer, May 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 159717 www.eMarketer.com
  • 19. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 19 While eMarketer estimates that more than half of mobile phone users in China regularly accessed the internet via their phone last year, the Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project and Data Center of China Internet (DCCI) both projected that usage was much less common. Pew sampled a group of users ages 18 and older, most residents of urban areas; because the sample represented roughly 64% of China’s adult population, this figure is on the low end. DCCI’s estimated penetration rate is also much lower.The earlier release of its forecast may skew figures downward. Comparative Estimates: Mobile Internet Users and Penetration in China, 2011-2015 Mobile internet users (millions) MIIT, April 2013 (1) DCCI, May 2012 Analysys International, Dec 2012 eMarketer, May 2013 (2) iResearch Consulting Group, Feb 2012 (3) CCID Consulting, Jan 2012 mobileSQUARED, May 2012 CNNIC, July 2012 (4) Mobile internet user penetration (% of mobile phone users) eMarketer, May 2013 (2) DCCI, May 2012 Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, Dec 2012 (5) 2011 355.6 446.0 431.4 375.6 338.0 318.0 - 355.6 43.2% 23.8% 37.0% 2012 420.0 583.0 561.2 500.1 411.0 480.0 434.4 388.3 51.0% 30.7% 36.0% 2013 817.4 690.0 659.0 556.1 492.0 - - - 53.5% 18.5% - 2014 - 782.0 749.0 596.5 571.0 - - - 55.0% 13.2% - 2015 - 867.0 824.6 644.1 712.0 - - - 57.0% 10.9% - Note: (1) 2013 data is for March; (2) mobile phone users of any age who access the internet from a mobile browser or an installed application at least once per month; use of SMS/MMS is not considered mobile internet access; excludes Hong Kong; (3) users who have accessed the internet through mobile phones or tablets in the past 6 months; (4) ages 6+ who have accessed the internet via a mobile phone in the past six months; (5) ages 18+ Source: eMarketer, May 2013; various, as noted, 2012 & 2013 159718 www.eMarketer.com CONCLUSIONS The worldwide mobile market differs from region to region. North America, Western Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe have the highest penetration rates for mobile phone, mobile internet and smartphone users among their respective populations, while users in the Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America are less likely to use mobile phones or access the internet via mobile or smartphone. Asia-Pacific will be the region with the largest number of mobile phone, smartphone and mobile phone internet users worldwide throughout the forecast period. Users in China will make up a large portion of the region’s mobile audiences, while new users in India and Indonesia will drive growth. People living in South Korea, Norway, Australia and Sweden are most likely to be smartphone users. These countries will also have the highest percentages of smartphone users among mobile phone users. The countries with the lowest penetration rates and fastest-growing number of mobile phone users are India and Mexico.The mobile phone internet and smartphone audiences in these two countries will also expand rapidly, as will those in Indonesia. Regionally, the number of mobile phone, smartphone and mobile internet users in the Middle East and Africa will rise the fastest.
  • 20. WORLDWIDE MOBILE PHONE USERS: 2013 FORECAST AND COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES ©2013 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 20 RELATED EMARKETER REPORTS US Mobile Users: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates UK Mobile Users: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates Canada Mobile: AdvertisersTrail Users’ Uptake of Mobile Worldwide Social Network Users: 2013 Forecast and Comparative Estimates Worldwide Internet Users: 2013 Forecast Report and Comparative Estimates EDITORIAL AND PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS Cliff Annicelli Senior Editor Kaitlin Carlin Copy Editor Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist Stephanie Gehrsitz Senior Production Artist Dana Hill Director of Production Heather Price Copy Editor Nicole Perrin Associate Editorial Director Allie Smith Director of Charts

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