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Jason Calacanis: RAIN Summit West keynote: "State of Media 2014"

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Jason Calacanis, CEO of Inside.com and host of "This Week in Startups," presented his State of Media keynote address at RAIN Summit West in Las Vegas, April 6, 2014. He moved through these slides, …

Jason Calacanis, CEO of Inside.com and host of "This Week in Startups," presented his State of Media keynote address at RAIN Summit West in Las Vegas, April 6, 2014. He moved through these slides, with nonstop commentary, predictions, and deep context, in 60 minutes.


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  • 1. state of the media! by @Jason 1
  • 2. 0b 20b 40b 60b 80b radio magazine* newspaper internet tv $66 $41 $22$20$19 ad revenue US media landscape snapshot 2013 0b 10b 20b 30b 40b music gaming movies books $27$27 $15 $7 sales revenue Source: Inside.com*print only 2 State of media Text
  • 3. Source: Business Insider 3 State of media
  • 4. projected growth by medium us advertising media market sizes $0b $23b $45b $68b $90b tv internet newspaper radio magazine $15b$17b$18b $69b $82b $16b$16b $23b $37b $64b 2012 2017 Source: PwC 4 State of media
  • 5. VIDEO GAMES 5
  • 6. Global video game Revenue Source: Gartner $0b $24b $48b $72b $96b $120b 2012 2013 2014 $17.1 $13.2 $9.3 $84 $80 $70 Console/PC/Handheld Mobile State of Games6
  • 7. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 51%40%31%28%20% 49% 60% 69%72% 80% Physical Digital physical vs digital Game sales: the shift Source: The NPD Group State of Games7
  • 8. us console hardware sales FAll Source: vgchartz.com State of Games8
  • 9. Trend: AAA Games, the new blockbuster Movie Grand Theft Auto V ! Most Expensive Video Game Ever Made - $265m budget ! Generated $800M in 1st day (global) ! $1B in sales in the first 3 days, an industry record ! sold 32.5M units in 2013 
 (~$1.95B) State of Games iron man 3 ! $200M budget ! top grossing film of 2013 ! generated $68.8M in 1st day ! $174M in the first 3 days ! Total $1.2B box Office [October 2013] 9
  • 10. gaming is #1 activity on mobile devices in us State of Games Source: Flurry time spent on ios and android connected devices browsers 14% others 3% news 3% productivity 4% utilities 8% entertainment 4% youtube 4% social messaging 10% twitter 2% facebook 17% gaming 32% apps continue to dominate the mobile web timespent 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2013 2014 14%20% 86% 80% apps mobile web 10
  • 11. Freemium Model Dominates Games 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2012 2013 93%86% 7% 14% Apps that do not use in-app purchases apps that use in-app purchases 125% YOY growth State of Games Source: App Annie 11
  • 12. Smartphones: room to grow State of Games Source: eMarketer 3b 4b 5b 6b 7b 8b 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 2012 2013 2014 % Smart phones Total mobile phones 6.3b 5.76b 5.21b 27.8% 24.8% 21.7%21.7% 24.8% 27.8% 12
  • 13. What if ipad & iphone were consoles? Source: SuperData Research, 2013 0m 125m 250m 375m 500m iphone&ipad NinentoDS Wii Xbox360 PSP PS3 3DS PS4 PSVita WiiU XBoxOne 468744 828181101 154 500 Units sold State of Games 500 13
  • 14. Trend: Mobile casual is winning king.com (sweden) ! Daily revenue: $449k ! Yearly revenue: $164M ! candy crush: #1 grossing app on iPhone State of Games supercell (finland) ! daily revenue: $684K ! yearly revenue: $249m ! clash of clans: #2 grossing app on iphone [october 2013] 14
  • 15. Prediction: billion-dollar, aaa mobile casual games emerge angry birds 2B total downloads $199M in sales and merchandise, 2012 Source: Bloomberg State of Games [October 2013] 15
  • 16. Mobile casual has won king.com State of Games supercell daily revenue $0m $1m $3m $4m $5m 2012 2013 $4.9m $0.4m daily revenue $0m $1m $1m $2m $2m 2012 2013 $2.4m $0.7m annual revenue $0m $225m $450m $675m $900m 2012 2013 $892.0m $249.0m annual revenue $0m $450m $900m $1,350m $1,800m 2012 2013 March 2014: ipo $1.8B $164M 16
  • 17. trend: breakout games get even more casual: 2048, Flappy bird, white tile State of Games17
  • 18. trend: mobile messaging platforms in asia line $338M in revenue in 2013 – 60% from games, 20% stickers State of Games kakaotalk $200M in revenue for 2013 - games/stickers ratio undiscl 18
  • 19. TELEVISION 19
  • 20. Us broadcast Ad revenue Source: eMarketer State of television $10b $100b 2012 2013 2014 $69b$66b$65b ad revenue 20
  • 21. ad revenue: youtube effect youtube $5.6b broadcast tv $66.4b Source: eMarketer State of television21
  • 22. $0b $5b $10b $15b $20b amc espn youtube nbc $15b $6b $4b $2b ad revenue youtube: fierce competitor to traditional broadcast State of television Source: AdAge 22
  • 23. fierce competitors to youtube State of television23
  • 24. Prediction: Twitter will take on youtube State of television [October 2013] 24
  • 25. Baljeet singh joins twitter State of television25
  • 26. Pay-tv net Subscribers: trending down Source: Business Insider State of television26 -
  • 27. Source: Financial Times / Netflix 0m 8m 16m 24m 32m 40m 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 netflix comcast State of television streaming vs. cable netflix domestic subscribers: 31.7m / comcast customers: 21.7M $7.99/mo $70/mo 27
  • 28. Netflix now bigger than hbo 31.7M paid subs vs. 29M US Subs State of television PAYING SUSCRIBERS (us) 20m 22m 24m 26m 28m 30m 32m Q3 Q4 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Q2 Q3 q4 Netflix streaming HBO Source: QZ 28
  • 29. Internet TV trends toward free $0 $75 $150 $225 $300 2008 2012 2013 2014 2015 $299 $99 $35 +2/mo Netflix State of television $99 ?? 29
  • 30. Trend: meeting of the budgets YouTube work & full-scale big network productions meet State of television 0m 1.5m 3m 4.5m 6m portlandia video game high school alpha house walking dead orange is the new black Game of Thrones HBOYoutube amc estimated cost per episode $2.8M $223K $6m $166K ifc amazon $1.5M $3.9M netflix Source: Variety / IMDB 30
  • 31. Trend: winners and losers defined faster State of television 1) twitter 2) Netflix rating system 3) MetaCritic 31
  • 32. Trend: live events still matter super bowl ! 111.5M total audience in 2014 ! Sunday Night Football has a 20% share in 2012-2013 State of television grand canyon tightrope walk ! 12.98M viewers for Discovery in 2013 ! ! ! red bull space jump ! 8m streaming audience in 2012 ! broke streaming record by 1m+ 32
  • 33. Trend: old dating new dreamWorks buys awesomenesstv May 2013: $33M disney buys maker studios march 2014; $500M State of television dreamworks/awesomenessTV buys Big Frame april 2014; $14M 33
  • 34. prediction: apple launches tv and buys netflix Apple has $158.8B in cash / Netflix market cap is $21.81b State of television [October 2013] 34
  • 35. State of television prediction: apple launches tv [October 2008] 35
  • 36. apple in talks with comcast State of television36
  • 37. prediction: APPLE launches 4K TV State of television 13m apple tv sold (2013) + mac pro + asus 4k monitor 37
  • 38. movies 38
  • 39. U.s Film industry, 2013 physical (dvd/blu ray sales, rentals) $9.8b box office $10.9b digital (streaming, VOD) $6.5b Source: MPAA $27.2B State of movies39
  • 40. global box office revenues Source: MPAA State of movies $0b $10b $20b $30b $40b 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $25.0b$23.9b $22.4b$21.0b $18.8b $10.9b$10.8b$10.2b$10.6b$10.6b US/Canada International 40
  • 41. International power at the Box office Source: Box Office Mojo 0% 18% 35% 53% 70% iron man 3 ($1.2b) frozen ($1.1b) despicable me ($970M) hunger games ($864M) 51% 62%62% 66.3% 49% 38%38% 34% domestic international State of movies41
  • 42. academy award winners 2014 0% 23% 45% 68% 90% 12 years a slave ($178M) american hustle ($251M) dallas buyers club ($33M) her ($39.6M) 35.8% 18.1% 40% 68.3% 64% 82% 60% 32% domestic international Source: Box Office Mojo State of movies42
  • 43. marketers cater to international audience State of movies 12 years a slave: italian poster iron man 3: China-only scenes 43
  • 44. 3d movies Keep box office from dipping State of movies Source: MPAA $0b $3b $6b $9b $12b $15b 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $10.9b$10.8b $10.2b $10.6b $10.6b $9.6b$9.6b$9.2b$8.8b$9.3b $1.8b$1.8b$1.8b$2.2b $1.1b$0.2b$0.1b$0.1b 3D Box Office Non-3D Box Office 44
  • 45. Us box office stagnation attendance dropped 20% in the past 10 years State of movies Source: MPAA US/Canada admissions 0 1.2 2.4 3.6 4.8 1b 1b 1b 1b 2b 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US/Canada Admissions US/Canada Admissions per capita 4.04.1 3.9 4.1 4.34.2 4.44.44.4 4.8 1.3b1.4b 1.3b 1.3b 1.4b 1.3b 1.4b1.4b1.4b 1.5b1.5b 1.4b 1.4b 1.4b 1.3b 1.4b 1.3b 1.3b 1.4b 1.3b 45
  • 46. trend: theaters pulling out all the stops 4d: combines moving and vibrating seats with wind, fog, rain and scent-based effects; synchronized to the action on screen ! “adult only” ! dine-in & alcohol State of movies46
  • 47. pay-TV & streaming will surpass box office in revenue 0b 3b 6b 10b 13b 16b 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Movie Box office Pay Tv + Streaming Source: PwC State of movies47
  • 48. video streaming: industry’s new hope Source: Digital Entertainment Group State of movies home-entertainment spending saw increase, first time since 2004 percent change in sales from 2013 digital purchases subscription streaming video-on-demand rental kiosk rental dvd/blu-ray sales rental from stores disc subscription rental -25% -12.5% 0% 12.5% 25% 37.5% 50% 2013 sales $11.8b $6.5b digital physical 48
  • 49. trend: theatrical + vod, simultaneous releases $343K theaters $1M vod $7.9M theaters $14M VOD $6M theaters $8M VOD State of movies49
  • 50. trend: vod, the new dvd sept 2013 - digital movie streaming service Nov 2013 - digital movie streaming service State of movies50
  • 51. trend: Crowdfunding movies grow State of movies [October 2013] raised: $5.7m raised: $1.4M raised: $3.1M 51
  • 52. ! March 2014: veronica mars movie opens at $2m total domestic gross: $3.2m State of movies52
  • 53. Prediction: major director will raise $50M on kickstarter State of movies quentin tarantino chris nolan jj abrams [October 2013] 53
  • 54. RADIO 54
  • 55. $0b $5b $10b $15b $20b 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $1.7b$1.4b$1.1b$0.9b$0.7b $3.0b$3.1b$3.0b$3.0b$2.8b $16.5b$15.9b$16.0b$15.5b$15.6b Broadcast Radio Satellite Radio Online and Mobile Projected Revenue Source: Veronis Suhler 2012-2016; Pew Research Center State of radio55
  • 56. % SharE OF DAILY AUDIO MINUTES in us Millenials 6% 9% 9% 10% 66% AM/FM Radio iPod/MP3 Sat. Radio CD Player Music Streaming Generation X 5% 9% 9% 10% 67% Baby Boomers 6% 8% 10% 8% 68% Source: 2013.2 USA TouchPoints State of radio56
  • 57. Online radio reach and consumption (ages 12+) Source: eMarketer State of radio us monthly digital radio listeners 100m 125m 150m 175m 200m 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 132.5m 147.8m 159.8m 169.3m 175.8m 180m 183.4m 57
  • 58. usage of am/fm radio compared to internet radio 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% In a car at home at work on the go overall 53% 24%23% 42% 17% 90% 20% 24% 57% 83% AM/FM Radio Internet Radio Source: Edison Research State of radio58
  • 59. State of radio preferred devices to stream music on (% of us connected device owners) 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 13-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ 8% 10% 13%12% 8% 16% 14%14%15% 18% 24% 19% 9% 16% 20% 27%26% 22% smartphone laptop tablet Source: Nielsen Why itunes radio is a smart move for apple 59
  • 60. PANdora net ad revenues worldwide, 2011-2013 $0m $150m $300m $450m $600m 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 2011 2012 2013 % change Pandora net ad revenues $582 $375 $240 55%56% 101%101% 56% 55% Source: Company reports 2012 & 2013; eMarketer June 2013 State of radio60
  • 61. trend: public radio dominates podcasting State of radio 1. This American Life - Chicago Public Radio 2. Welcome to Night Vale - Commonplace Books 3. Freakonomics Radio - Stephen J. Dubner 4. Radiolab from WNYC - Jad Abumrad & Robert Krulwich 5. NPR Programs: Wait Wait... Don't Tell Me! Podcast - NPR 6. Stuff You Should Know - HowStuffWorks.com 7. NPR Programs: Fresh Air Podcast - NPR 8. The Moth Podcast - The Moth 9. NPR: TED Radio Hour Podcast - NPR 10. NPR: Planet Money Podcast - NPR [October 2013] 61
  • 62. trend: public radio dominates podcasting State of radio 1. This American Life - Chicago Public Radio 2. Radiolab from WNYC - Jad Abumrad & Robert Krulwich 3. NPR Programs: Wait Wait... Don't Tell Me! Podcast - NPR 4. NPR: TED Radio Hour Podcast - NPR 5. NPR Programs: Fresh Air Podcast - NPR 6. Stuff You Should Know - HowStuffWorks.com 7. Welcome to Night Vale - Commonplace Books 8. Freakonomics Radio - Stephen J. Dubner 9. The Moth Podcast - The Moth 10. Star Talk Radio - Star Talk Radio [April 2014] 62
  • 63. Trend: itunes working harder State of radio63
  • 64. trend: direct-to-consumer radio grows jerry seinfeld (2012) Sole sponsor: Acura 23 eps adam carolla (2009) 15 employees network of 9 shows marc maron (2009) Sponsors pay up to $15k/episode 434 eps leo laporte (2005) $6m revenue in 2013 Network of 20 shows State of radio [October 2013] 64
  • 65. steve jobs interview video 65
  • 66. Trend: left field podcasters facebook artist david choe and porn star asa akira Venture Capital firm Andreessen Horowitz A guy in his bedroom telling a 3+ hour story about Genghis Khan State of radio66
  • 67. Trend: old players find new ways to stay relevant • Clear Channel’s I Heart Radio platform brings terrestrial stations and stalwart personalities to mobile, Facebook ! • and now will have a music awards show on NBC, produced by Ryan Seacrest State of radio67
  • 68. prediction: podcasters become coveted by clear channel State of radio68
  • 69. prediction: New platforms will dominate State of radio [October 2013] 69
  • 70. prediction: show-based consumption outpaces time-based consumption State of radio [October 2013] 70
  • 71. State of radio march 2014: This American Life Leaving distributor PRI “self-distribution continues to be an option, and we’ve been looking at what that would mean in a more serious way.” - Host Ira Glass 71
  • 72. MUSIC 72
  • 73. global music revenue 2013 total market change from 2012: -3.9% Source: IFPI Digital Music Report $1.4b $5.9b $7.7b physical sales digital sales rights management State of music73
  • 74. Music revenue flat in US State of radio total us music industry revenues
 (includes digital, physical, streaming) $5b $6b $7b $8b $9b $10b 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: RIAA 74
  • 75. % change in listening patterns -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% CDs AM/FM Radio Digital Downloads On-demand Music Internet Radio 27% 18% -2% -4% -16% Source: The NPD Group State of music75
  • 76. spotify subscribers Source: CNET 0m 5m 10m 15m 20m 25m jan 2012 july 2012 dec 2012 march 2014 paid users total active users $10/month for premium State of music76
  • 77. Youtube is the real spotify In feb, VEVO had 20 channels in the Top 100 on YouTube ! Katy Perry is the network's highest ranking channel in the #4 spot with 200 million monthly views ! 33% of Americans 12+ used YouTube to listen to music last week (Source: edison research) State of music77
  • 78. trend: songs jump to top of chart based on viral videos (even old ones) • Chinese Food (2013) • Harlem Shake (2012) • Kanye West’s “Gone” (2009) • Livin’ on a Prayer (1986) • The Fox (2013) ! billboard now counting youtube views State of music78
  • 79. Trend: Everyone wants a piece of streaming market State of music ! 2013 - Beats Music Launches 2014 - Twitter relaunching music strategy 2014 - iTunes rumored to be preparing streaming service 79
  • 80. State of music Trend: battle for the car Text Chevy AppShop 80 apple carplay
  • 81. State of music 25+ million subscribersSpotify premium: 6+m Deezer: 5m Rhapsody: 4.6M Pandora one: 3.3M Beats: 500k Prediction: streaming replaces satellite 81
  • 82. spotify grows from streaming service to record label will hit 20m paid subscribers & provide tour and merchandising support for artists State of music [October 2013] 82
  • 83. State of music December 2013: Spotify added commerce, allowing artists to sell tickets and merchandise through partnerships with Songkick and Topspin 83
  • 84. publishing 84
  • 85. BOOKS & E-BOOKS 85
  • 86. estimated net revenue: US publishers State of books Source: BookStats $20b $23b $25b $28b $30b 2010 2011 2012 $27.1b$27.4b $27.9b 86
  • 87. Growth in e-book sales Source: Association of American Publishers 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 27.0% 22.6% 17.0% 8.3% 3.2% 1.2%0.8%0.5% % of us publisher net revenue e-books account for 27% of US publisher sales State of books87
  • 88. it pays to go indie State of books Source: Smashwords 88 % of e-book retail sales dollars earned by indie and traditional authors
  • 89. Book revenue breakdown Print MODEL distributor 50% publisher 35.0% agent 2.3%author 12.8% Source: Smashwords e-book MODEL distributor 30% publisher 10.0% author 60.0% State of books89
  • 90. “the 50 shades” effect 100M+ copies sold ! Random house profits jumped 75% in 2012 State of books90 huge hits can come from Indie publishing
  • 91. number of e-book titles per price range Source: Smashwords 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 $.99 $1 - $1.99 $2 - $2.99 $3 - $3.99 $4 - $4.99 $5 - $5.99 $6 - $6.99 $7 - $7.99 $8 - $8.99 $9 - $9.99 $10+ State of books91
  • 92. Source: Quantcast Trend: “social reading” + crowdfunding = publishing wattpad: 39.6M unique monthly visitors (US) State of books92
  • 93. Trend: Hybrid Authorship wins Traditional publishing + other channels (digital, indie, self-publishing) Hugh Howey 1st small press + Amazon Kindle Direct Publishing Then: signed Simon & Schuster print deal (retained digital rights) Catherine Ryan Hyde Big uK Popularity in 2009 Self-published in 2011 (US): ~300K copies sold Bella Andre deals with “big 5”: little success self-published in 2010: 7-figure print deal State of books93
  • 94. Trend: e-book subscriptions for mobile & devices SCRIBD launched Oct 2103 $8.99/mo - Unlimited Smashwords, HarperCollins ROOSTER launched March 2014 book club model $4.99/mo - 2 books by Publisher Plympton ENTITLE launched dec 2013 starts at $9.99/mo Simon & Schuster, harpercollins oyster launched Sept 2013 $9.95/mo - unlimited harpercollins, perseus, disney State of books94
  • 95. prediction: the full indie ! ! the next jk rowling emerges on wattpad and will fund movie adaptation through indiegogo State of books [October 2013] 95
  • 96. MAGAZINES 96
  • 97. global magazine revenue in 2013 digital circulation $1.5b print circulation $41.9b digital advertising $4.7b print advertising $32.9b Source: FIPP State of magazines97
  • 98. digital revenue will remain small 2012 6.6% 40.5% 52.9% Print Advertising Print Circulation Digital Platforms 2016 14.5% 37.1% 48.3% Source: Veronis Suhler, 2012-2016; Pew Research Center State of magazines98
  • 99. fighting for survival: # ad pages sold Source: Publishers Information Bureau, Association of Magazine Media State of magazines news magazine ad pages sold 0 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 3,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 the atlantic newsweek the new yorker the economist the week time 99
  • 100. State of magazines Sales Decrease at the Newsstands news magazines’ newsstand sales (average single copy circ) 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 the atlantic the new yorker the economist the week time Source: Alliance for Audited Media 100
  • 101. subscription % change -12% -9% -5% -2% 2% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -10.4% -8.15% -8.9% -8.1% -9.5% -11% -1% 1%0% -2% -1% 0% Subscriptions Single Copies Source: Alliance for Audited Media; Pew Research Center State of magazines101
  • 102. web traffic comparison: traditional magazines Source: Quantcast 0m 1m 3m 4m 5m 7m 8m the new yorker the economist the atlantic time the week 7.4 7.1 4.9 3.2 1.9 March 2014 unique visitors (us) State of magazines102
  • 103. web traffic comparison: the new players State of magazines 0m 25m 50m 75m 100m 125m the new yorker the economist the atlantic time the week upworthy buzzfeed 102.0 32.8 7.47.14.93.21.9 Source: Quantcast March 2014 unique visitors (us) 103
  • 104. advertising in print media overvalued Source: eMarketer 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% tv online radio mobile (non-voice) newspaper magazines 9% 12% 2% 9% 21% 39% 2%3% 12% 13% 25% 40% share of time spent with media share of total ad spend State of magazines104
  • 105. Trend: Reducing Frequency, Upping Digital Game March 2014 42 issues to 29 January 2014 weekly issues to 25 per year In 2013 12 issues to 10 State of magazines105
  • 106. Trend: Print Not Dead Yet! State of magazines Pando Quarterly
 (launch: 02/2014) AllRecipes
 (Launch: 11/2013) Porter
 (Launch: 02/2014) Newsweek
 (relaunch: 03/2014) Domino
 (relaunch 10/2013) launching new print magazines and reviving old ones 106
  • 107. Trend: The curated social magazine Pulse Acquired by LinkedIn (apr 13, $90M) 30M users at time of acquisition State of books Flipboard estimated 100M users $800M Valuation (Dec. 2013) Acquired Zite (Mar ’14 - $60M) 107
  • 108. prediction: lightweight, subscriber-based magazines will reach 100k+ circulation State of magazines [October 2013] 108
  • 109. Newspapers 109
  • 110. Newspaper: print vs online ad revenue Source: Newspaper Association of America, 2012; Pew Research Center $0b $10b $20b $30b $40b $50b 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3.33.2 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.2 2.72.01.5 1.2 1921 23 25 35 42 474747 45 print online State of newspapers110
  • 111. print Readership falls across the board 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: Scarborough Research Survey Data, 1999-2012 State of newspapers111
  • 112. top 10 newspapers in the US by total subscribers Average daily circulation State of newspapers the wall street journal the new york times usa today los angeles times new york daily news new york post the washington post chicago sun-times the denver post Chicago tribune 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 print Source: Alliance for Audited Media 112
  • 113. internet overtakes print Source: Scarborough Zenith Optimedia 0b 30b 60b 90b 120b 150b 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 132.7 116.1 101.5 88.6 76.9 132132134136142 print (newspaper & magazines) online Worldwide ad spending State of newspapers113
  • 114. ! prediction: crowdfunded newspapers replace local papers & produce far better product State of newspapers [October 2013] 114
  • 115. ! march 2014: startup wants to kickstart journalism State of newspapers115
  • 116. Jan 2014: aol sells Patch to hale global, hundreds laid off State of newspapers116
  • 117. New media 117
  • 118. Us Internet ad revenue grows $0b $13b $25b $38b $50b 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $41.1 $36.6 $31.7 $26.0 $22.7$23.4 $21.2 $16.9 $12.5 $9.6 $7.3 Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau State of new media118
  • 119. Internet advertising main area of growth us advertising media market sizes $0b $23b $45b $68b $90b tv internet newspaper radio magazine $15b$17b$18b $69b $82b $16b$16b $23b $37b $64b 2012 2017 Source: PwC 119
  • 120. Search & display leads ad formats; mobile ads strong 2013 total: $36.6b 3%2% 5% 6% 9% 7% 21% 46% search display/banner classifieds mobile digital video lead generation sponsorshop rich media email State of new media Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau 120
  • 121. the top New Media sites Source: Quantcast 0m 45m 90m 135m 180m drudge report sbnation gawker the blaze gizmodo examiner upworthy bleacher report buzzfeed 161.0 53.753.5 46.5 29.026.224.422.019.9 March ’14 global Monthly Uniques State of new media121
  • 122. social sharing content grows monthlyuniques 0m 45m 90m 135m 180m oct 12 nov 12 dec 12 jan 13 feb 13 mar 13 apr 13 may 13 jun 13 jul 13 aug 13 sep 13 oct 13 nov 13 dec 13 jan 14 feb 14 buzzfeed ehow Source: Quantcast State of new media122
  • 123. buzzfeed referrals: from Google to Facebook referrals 0m 16m 32m 48m 64m 80m jan 11 mar 11 may 11 jul 11 sep 11 nov 11 jan 12 mar 12 may 12 jul 12 sep 12 nov 12 jan 13 mar 13 facebook google Source: Buzzfeed Internal State of new media123
  • 124. trend: upworthy effect State of new media facebook shares per article by domain 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 upworthy twentytwowords theonion buzzfeed mashable 124 Source: The Atlantic
  • 125. native ads drive major revenue us social media ad spending $0b $1b $2b $3b $4b $5b $6b $7b 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $4.57 $3.98 $3.40 $2.85 $2.36 $1.63 $6.40 $5.70 $5.00 $4.30 $3.70 $3.00 display spending native spending Source: BIA/Kelsey State of new media125
  • 126. buzzfeed: the master of native ads ~$60M in revenue in 2013 14 staff dedicated to producing native ads State of new media126
  • 127. Trend: new faces in newsroom jeff bezos ! Personal wealth: $27.2B ! bought washington post for $250m State of new media pierre omidyar ! Personal wealth: $8.5b ! spending $250m to create all-digital news outlet [October 2013] 127
  • 128. Trend: all-star journalists rule walt mossberg & kara swisher Founded re/code andrew sullivan Raised more revenue in 7 months with sub model than he did in 2.5 years at The Daily Beast bill simmons Called ESPN’s ‘shadow president’ after creating Grantland & 30 for 30 series glenn greenwald departed guardian for first look media State of new media [October 2013] 128
  • 129. State of new media Trend: Growth in data journalism ezra klein, vox media Nate silver, fivethirtyeight David leonhardt, the upshot 129
  • 130. Trend: Explosion of news curation apps circa 2.0 Oct ’13 Breaking news 3.0 nov ’13 yahoo news digest Jan ’14 inside Jan ’14 NYT Now Apr ’14 State of new media130
  • 131. Trend: fake it until you make it Pulitzer Prize- winner runs investigative staff former New York Times editor is new chief content officer Draws Established old media sports columnists State of new media131
  • 132. takeaways • indie is the new mainstream • digital replaces physical • ux is the new bd • mobile is the only platform that matters State of new media132