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# Ire 2010 final

## by bradstenger on Jun 10, 2010

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## Ire 2010 finalPresentation Transcript

• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before Believe it or not there's a formula. Two formulas actually, but they're both pretty simple, and together they're about right for a five minute presentation. Make no mistake though, doing something that has never been done before is hard. Truly, if it was easy it would already be done. Brad Stenger June 10, 2010
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general 90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism 30 seconds … summary
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them Compound Probability p(A and B and C and … ) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C) ... Expected Value E(X) =  x*p(x)
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x) 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general Complexity & Difficulty Singles & Homeruns Process & Product
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x) 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product 90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism Internet = Interdependencies Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x) 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product 90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface 30 seconds … summary Decision-making Preparation Minimizes Risk Awareness Maximizes Opportunity
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before Believe it or not there's a formula. Two formulas actually, but they're both pretty simple, and together they're about right for a five minute presentation. Make no mistake though, doing something that has never been done before is hard. Truly, if it was easy it would already be done. Brad Stenger June 10, 2010 1
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general 90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism 30 seconds … summary 2 I will be enrolling in the MSJ program at Medill in June, 2010. Before working in Journalism, I worked in university technology transfer and have been assessing new technologies for 10+ years. Visit bradstenger.com if you're interested in seeing my complete bona fides.
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them Compound Probability p(A and B and C and … ) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C) ... Expected Value E(X) =  x*p(x) 3 In general, probabilities multiply. With each additional first-of-its-kind element in a first-of-its-kind project, the probability of overall project success takes a hit. Every situation is different. But again in general, something that's never been done before and has a low probability of success better have commensurately high potential value. It's also wise to limit your downside, the negative expected value of undesirable, but still possible outcomes. Probability => What's Possible => Expected Value => What's Valuable
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x) 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general Complexity & Difficulty Singles & Homeruns Process & Product 4 Complexity: something with lots of project elements, each of them with a probability and potential value Difficulty: factors which negatively affect probability for success Singles: attempting new things that have reasonably high probability of success, but relatively low value Homeruns: a new thing with high potential value, but relatively low probability Process: I'd like to think it's as simple as great products come from great processes, but I suspect it's not that simple, b/c process is rarely simple. Keywords I listen for – transparency, lowest common denominator, invention.
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x) 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product 90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism Internet = Interdependencies Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface 5 Everything built for the Internet is beset by some unavoidable interdependencies. Content, Business Model, Information Services, and Interface Design all represent opportunities to either positively or negatively differentiate a new Net thing. Plug all of a journalism project's elements in each dimension into to the Compound Probability formula and success is inevitably a challenge. Help to reduce risk comes in the form of frameworks, agile practices, APIs, strong design fundamentals, continuous improvement. The tension is to seek challenges but not overdo it. Limit downside of failures with the value in learning from them. Remember though, if you're not failing you're not really trying.
• IRE 2010 Lightning Talk Doing Things That Haven't Ever Been Done Before 30 seconds … intro 60 seconds … formulas, two of them p(ABC) = p(A) * p(B) * p(C), E(X) =  x*p(x) 90 seconds … applying the formulas in general Complexity & Difficulty, Process & Product 90 seconds … applying the formulas to journalism Content + Biz Model + Info Service + Interface 30 seconds … summary Decision-making Preparation Minimizes Risk Awareness Maximizes Opportunity 6 At some level it comes down to decision-making. ... It helps to know what you're dealing with. Preparation, as in knowing technical and design details, makes it more likely that bad decisions can be ruled out more quickly. The answers to most questions are out in the world, and not necessarily in your head. Awareness, as in knowing or learning where solutions already exist, solutions that can turn unknowns into knowns, it saves time/money/effort. One big thing to remain aware of, especially for the Internet, is how something scales up. Base decisions on guesses instead of evidence, and success depends on luck.