Technical View

1,170 views
1,092 views

Published on

Bank Negara: Tan Seri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, pointed out that OPR had been
“front-loaded”. Zeti indicated that, there will not be any further OPR rate cuts
provided in improvement is seen in the second half of the year and further
improvement going into next year. Zeti expects the global and domestic
economies to improve by the second half of the year. (Source: The Edge Daily)
Axiata: Announcement of Headline KPIs for FY08. Axiata failed to achieve its
FY08 KPIs targets, citing increasing competition in the mobile market of Axiata’s
operating countries, currency volatility, liquidity shortages, and fluctuation of
interest rates. Axiata did not meet its target for revenue growth, EBITDA margin
and ROE for FY08. (Source: Bursa Announcement)
Ramunia: Currently engaging in preliminary discussion with Sime Darby
Engineering Sdn Bhd as a strategic partner. Ramunia and Sime Darby
clarified in an announcement that, they are in engaged in a discussion on a
potential corporate transaction as part of Ramunia’s search for a strategic
partner. (Source: Bursa Announcement)
Air Asia: Eyeing new associates in the Philippines and Vietnam. Datuk Seri
Tony Fernandes is keen on setting up affiliate airlines in the two countries. He
envisioned all AirAsia affiliates in Asean to become a single entity, ultimately.
(Source: Business Times)

G-7: Says strength of recovery depends on clean-up of banks' toxic
assets. In warning that the world economy could still take another turn for the
worse, the finance ministers and central bankers who met over the weekend in
Washington singled out the banks' impaired balance sheets as the biggest threat
to a sustainable recovery. Their remarks indicate it will be critical to follow
through on commitments to deploy taxpayer funds to buy distressed assets,
even as some gauges of financial stress ease. U.S. officials aim to finance the
purchases of as much as USD 1tr of loans and securities, and Germany is
pushing a plan to remove EUR 853b (USD 1.1tr) from balance sheets. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Mexico: Swine flu outbreak may deepen economic decline. The outbreak of
deadly swine flu may curtail tourism and compel shoppers to stay home, further
damaging an economy already reeling because of a U.S. recession that has cut
demand for exports. President Felipe Calderon closed Mexico City schools until
May 6, shut public events and declared emergency powers to order quarantines
to fight the flu, which has killed as many as 103 in Mexico. Finance Minister
Agustin Carstens said there’s “high potential” the outbreak will disrupt the
economy, with hotels and restaurants being the hardest hit. (Source: Bloomberg)
Germany: GfK consumer confidence holds steady for a third month in May
as slower inflation boosted household purchasing power and the recession
showed first signs of easing. GfK AG’s confidence index for, based on a survey
of about 2,000 people, was unchanged from April at 2.5%, the Nurembergbased
market-research company said in a statement. German business and
investor confidence increased this month on hopes that interest-rate cuts and
government stimulus packages will lift the economy out of its worst recession in
over six decades. Germany’s leading economic institutes predict the economy,
Europe’s largest, will shrink by 6% YoY this year. (Source: Bloomberg)
Ireland: Banks may report EUR 22.5b of loan losses. Ireland’s government is
preparing to buy EUR 90b (USD 119b) of property loans in a bid to stave off
nationalizing its biggest lenders. It may still end up with majority control of the
country’s banks. Companies led by Allied Irish Banks Plc may get 25% less than
the face value of their loans under the proposal from the National Asset
Management Agency, according to the median estimate of seven analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg News. That implies losses of EUR 22.5b. Analyst
estimates for the discount ranged from 15% to 30%. (Source: Bloomberg

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,170
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
20
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Technical View

  1. 1. Equity Research PP11072/03/2010 (023549) VIEWS & NEWS 28 April 2009 Key Indices Value YTD (%) Daily (%) Economics & Banking Update Financial services liberalisation KLCI 980.12 11.2 (1.3) – A ‘Small Bang’ approach… STI 1,818.61 2.7 (1.8) Competition in financial sector to intensify gradually. Following SET 474.99 5.6 0.2 the liberalization of equity ownership requirements in 27 non- HSI 14,840.42 4.2 (2.7) financial services areas last week, the Government announced KOSPI 1,339.83 19.2 (1.1) liberalization measures for the financial sector yesterday. The ‘gradualist’ approach does not come as a surprise, as we enter the TWSE 5,705.05 24.3 (3.0) final phase of the Financial Sector Master Plan which has laid out a DJIA 8,025.00 (7.4) (0.6) road map for greater foreign participation by 2010. S&P 857.51 (3.7) (1.0) FTSE 4,167.01 (5.1) 0.3 Other Local News  Bank Negara: Tan Seri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, pointed out that OPR had been “front-loaded”  Axiata: Announcement of Headline KPIs for FY08 Stock Picks  Ramunia: Currently engaging in preliminary discussion with Large Caps (Mkt Cap >RM2b) Price (RM) TP (RM) Sime Darby Engineering Sdn Bhd as a strategic partner  Air Asia: Eyeing new associates in the Philippines and Vietnam IJM 4.82 5.50 KLCCP 3.16 3.60 Outside Malaysia Tanjong Plc 14.10 17.60  G-7: Says strength of recovery depends on clean-up of banks' Resorts 2.39 3.10 toxic assets  Mexico: Swine flu outbreak may deepen economic decline  Germany: GfK consumer confidence holds steady for a third month in May Mid Caps (RM600m – RM2b) Price (RM) TP (RM)  Ireland: Banks may report EUR 22.5b of loan losses  Guinness 5.70 6.20 Japan: Cuts economic forecast to record 3.3% YoY decline for 2009 KFC 6.90 7.90  Japan: Pledges record JPY 13.9tr (USD 143b) budget for Litrak 2.18 2.88 stimulus JTI 4.22 5.40  China: Current-account surplus may shrink, Zhou says  WCT 1.48 1.70 Hong Kong: Exports fall for a fifth month in March on global recession Technicals The market tumbled after its recent rise as profit-taking activities emerged due to weaker regional markets.
  2. 2. VIEWS & NEWS Bank Negara: Tan Seri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz, pointed out that OPR had been Other Local News “front-loaded”. Zeti indicated that, there will not be any further OPR rate cuts provided in improvement is seen in the second half of the year and further improvement going into next year. Zeti expects the global and domestic economies to improve by the second half of the year. (Source: The Edge Daily) Axiata: Announcement of Headline KPIs for FY08. Axiata failed to achieve its FY08 KPIs targets, citing increasing competition in the mobile market of Axiata’s operating countries, currency volatility, liquidity shortages, and fluctuation of interest rates. Axiata did not meet its target for revenue growth, EBITDA margin and ROE for FY08. (Source: Bursa Announcement) Ramunia: Currently engaging in preliminary discussion with Sime Darby Engineering Sdn Bhd as a strategic partner. Ramunia and Sime Darby clarified in an announcement that, they are in engaged in a discussion on a potential corporate transaction as part of Ramunia’s search for a strategic partner. (Source: Bursa Announcement) Air Asia: Eyeing new associates in the Philippines and Vietnam. Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes is keen on setting up affiliate airlines in the two countries. He envisioned all AirAsia affiliates in Asean to become a single entity, ultimately. (Source: Business Times) Morning Call  28 April 2009 Page 2 of 5
  3. 3. VIEWS & NEWS G-7: Says strength of recovery depends on clean-up of banks' toxic Outside Malaysia assets. In warning that the world economy could still take another turn for the worse, the finance ministers and central bankers who met over the weekend in Washington singled out the banks' impaired balance sheets as the biggest threat to a sustainable recovery. Their remarks indicate it will be critical to follow through on commitments to deploy taxpayer funds to buy distressed assets, even as some gauges of financial stress ease. U.S. officials aim to finance the purchases of as much as USD 1tr of loans and securities, and Germany is pushing a plan to remove EUR 853b (USD 1.1tr) from balance sheets. (Source: Bloomberg) Mexico: Swine flu outbreak may deepen economic decline. The outbreak of deadly swine flu may curtail tourism and compel shoppers to stay home, further damaging an economy already reeling because of a U.S. recession that has cut demand for exports. President Felipe Calderon closed Mexico City schools until May 6, shut public events and declared emergency powers to order quarantines to fight the flu, which has killed as many as 103 in Mexico. Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said there’s “high potential” the outbreak will disrupt the economy, with hotels and restaurants being the hardest hit. (Source: Bloomberg) Germany: GfK consumer confidence holds steady for a third month in May as slower inflation boosted household purchasing power and the recession showed first signs of easing. GfK AG’s confidence index for, based on a survey of about 2,000 people, was unchanged from April at 2.5%, the Nuremberg- based market-research company said in a statement. German business and investor confidence increased this month on hopes that interest-rate cuts and government stimulus packages will lift the economy out of its worst recession in over six decades. Germany’s leading economic institutes predict the economy, Europe’s largest, will shrink by 6% YoY this year. (Source: Bloomberg) Ireland: Banks may report EUR 22.5b of loan losses. Ireland’s government is preparing to buy EUR 90b (USD 119b) of property loans in a bid to stave off nationalizing its biggest lenders. It may still end up with majority control of the country’s banks. Companies led by Allied Irish Banks Plc may get 25% less than the face value of their loans under the proposal from the National Asset Management Agency, according to the median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. That implies losses of EUR 22.5b. Analyst estimates for the discount ranged from 15% to 30%. (Source: Bloomberg) Japan: Cuts economic forecast to record 3.3% YoY decline for 2009 as exports and corporate spending tumble at an unprecedented pace. The Cabinet Office cut the forecast for the year started April 1 from a January prediction for zero growth. Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano told parliament that the economy remains in a “crisis” as the slump in exports and industrial output take a toll on employment and companies struggle to raise funds. The world’s second-largest economy would contract as much as 5.2% YoY without Prime Minister Taro Aso’s JPY 15.4tr (USD 159b) stimulus plan, funding of which was approved by the Cabinet, the government said. (Source: Bloomberg) Japan: Pledges record JPY 13.9tr (USD 143b) budget for stimulus aimed at pulling the nation out of its worst recession since World War II. The government will sell JPY 10.8tr in new bonds to pay for most of the extra budget, according to a proposal released by the Finance Ministry. The extra debt sale will bring the government’s new bond sales for the year ending March 31 to a record JPY 44.1tr. Bond yields rose to the highest in almost five months on April 10, the day Aso unveiled the record JPY 15.4tr stimulus spending. (Source: Bloomberg) Morning Call  28 April 2009 Page 3 of 5
  4. 4. VIEWS & NEWS China: Current-account surplus may shrink, Zhou says. People’s Bank of Outside Malaysia China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said China’s current-account surplus “‘will no longer be a serious problem” as the country’s economic-stimulus plan stokes domestic demand. Zhou, speaking to reporters in Washington, said “hopefully the current-account surplus is going to shrink” as China’s economic stimulus plan begins to show results. “For the medium term, I think probably this will no longer be a serious problem,” said Zhou, who was in Washington for the International Monetary Fund meeting. China’s current-account surplus rose 15% YoY to USD 426b last year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported last week. (Source: Bloomberg) Hong Kong: Exports fall for a fifth month in March on global recession. Overseas sales dropped 21.1% YoY to HKD175.5b (USD 23b). Hong Kong, a trade hub for China, is heading for its first full-year contraction since 1998 as exports and domestic demand tumble, forcing companies including PCCW Ltd., the city’s largest phone company, and lender HSBC Holdings Plc to cut jobs. The world’s economy will shrink 1.3% YoY this year, the International Monetary Fund said last week. (Source: Bloomberg) Morning Call  28 April 2009 Page 4 of 5
  5. 5. VIEWS & NEWS Definition of Ratings Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system: STRONG BUY Total return is expected to exceed 20% in the next 12 months; high conviction call BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months s HOLD Total return is expected to be between above 0% to 10% in the next 12 months FULLY VALUED Total return is expected to be between -10% and 0% in the next 12 months SELL Total return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months TRADING BUY Total return is expected to be between 10-20% in the next 6 months arising from positive newsflow e.g. mergers and acquisition, corporate restructuring, and potential of obtaining new projects. However, the upside may or may not be sustainable WITHHELD Rating and target price withheld in the exercise of Maybank Investment Bank 's duties under the applicable laws, rules, regulations, policies and procedures for the time being in force, and is not a reflection of expected returns. Applicability of Ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax Disclaimer This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, its affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward- looking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd's clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and Maybank Investment Bank Bhd accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Published / Printed by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (Formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8, MaybanLife Tower, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136 http://www.maybank-ib.com Morning Call  28 April 2009 Page 5 of 5
  6. 6. Equity Research PP11072/03/2010 (023549) TECHNICALS 28 April 2009 Technicals 27 Apr % Chg Net Chg Market Review YTD Daily (pts) Value The market tumbled after its recent rise as profit-taking activities Equity Markets emerged due to weaker regional markets. Swine flu worries caused Malaysia the regional malaise. In addition, investors were cautious as they KL Comp 11.8 (1.3) (12.6) 980.12 FTBM Emas 13.0 (1.5) (100.6) 6,470.59 awaited the announcement on the liberalisation of the financial FTBM 2nd Brd 7.5 (0.0) (0.7) 4,309.56 sector. The KLCI shed 12.56 points to 980.12 and the FBM Emas FTBM Mesdaq 4.1 (4.1) (146.8) 3,470.38 lost 100.59 points to 6,470.59. Meanwhile, the FBM Second Board Regional and MESDAQ indices declined 0.66 points to 4,309.56 and 146.77 Singapore STI 3.2 (1.8) (34.2) 1,818.61 Thailand SET 5.6 0.2 0.9 474.99 points to 3,470.38 respectively. Trading volume was a very high Indonesia JCI 16.3 (1.0) (15.3) 1,576.08 2.11b shares worth RM1.42b. Market breadth was negative as losers Philippines 11.4 (0.9) (18.0) 2,085.63 outnumbered gainers 508 to 188, while 169 counters remained Japan Nikkei (1.5) 0.2 18.4 8,726.34 unchanged. HK Hang Seng 3.1 (2.7) (418.4) 14,840.4 S Korea KOSPI 19.2 (1.1) (14.3) 1,339.83 Taiwan Weigh 24.3 (3.0) (175.7) 5,705.05 Regional Markets United States Dow Jones (8.6) (0.6) (51.3) 8,025.00 The regional markets were lower as the outbreak of the swine flu Nasdaq 6.5 (0.9) (14.9) 1,679.41 spread, raising concerns that it may slow the recovery of the global Commodities/Currency economy. The Hang Seng tumbled 2.74% or 418.43 points to WTI Nymex 12.4 (1.3) (0.7) 50.14 14,840.42 on news that the ICBC shareholders will sell their stakes Gold Futures 2.6 (0.7) (6.2) 907.40 US$/Ringgit 4.3 0.4 0.0 3.60 in the company, while the STI lost 1.85% or 34.24 points to 1,818.61 S$/Ringgit 0.6 (0.0) (0.0) 2.41 in line with regional markets. Elsewhere, the KOSPI declined 1.05% US$/Yen 7.1 (0.4) (0.4) 96.59 or 14.27 points to 1,339.83 on profit taking and the Jakarta US$/Euro 7.1 0.9 0.0 0.76 Composite Index shed 1.04% or 15.26 points to 1,576.08. However, CPOF 46.4 (4.0) (104.0) 2,481.00 Soy Bean 3.5 (4.5) (1.7) 35.15 the Nikkei 225 rebounded slightly by 0.21% or 18.35 points to Baltic Dry 137.6 (1.8) (34.0) 1,839.00 8,726.34, erasing earlier losses on gains led by banking stocks on Bursa Malaysia news of possible merger and acquisitions. 4/24/2009 4/27/2009 % Chg Volume (m units) 2,082.0 2,110.3 1.4 Value (RM m) 1,666.6 1,418.6 (14.9) US Markets Share Price 0.80 0.67 (16.0) Overnight US markets fell on worries that the swine flu outbreak will Gainers: Losers: Unchg: have a negative impact on travel, energy and hotel companies. The 188 508 169 Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.64% or 51.29 points to Daily Top Volume 8,025.00, the S&P 500 lost 1.01% or 8.72 points to 857.51, while the 4/27/2009 Chg Vol (RM) (%) (m) Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.88% or 14.88 points to 1,679.41. 1 TALAM CORP BHD 0.09 21.43 12,005.6 Meanwhile, crude oil fell 1.30% or USD0.66 to USD50.14/bbl on 2 RAMUNIA HOLDINGS 0.65 21.50 11,362.6 concerns that the swine flu outbreak will restrict travel and on weaker 3 TIME DOTCOM BHD 0.34 3.08 9,096.6 US economic outlook. 4 KNM GROUP BHD 0.55 -4.35 8,809.2 5 SAAG CONSOLIDATE 0.26 -7.14 8,691.0 Daily Technical Outlook 4/24/2009 4/27/2009 Chg The KLCI plunged 12.56-points to close at 980.12 yesterday. Gainers (RM) (RM) (RM) 1 TASEK CORP BHD 3.20 3.90 0.70 Investors may nibble on dips to the support areas of 957 and 974. 2 TOP GLOVE CORP B 5.50 6.15 0.65 Profit-taking on rallies to the resistance areas of 980 and 996 will cap 3 DFZ CAPITAL BHD 3.48 3.80 0.32 market gains for now. A Key Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern 4 KOSSAN RUBBER IN 3.34 3.64 0.30 high was sighted at 996.80 yesterday. As a result, the KLCI could 5 MISC BHD-FRGN 8.65 8.90 0.25 Losers retrace to 965.95, 958.82 and 946.99 before heading higher in the 1 GENTING BHD 4.88 4.60 -0.28 longer-term. As a result of the swine flu worries, rubber glove 2 PROTON HOLDINGS 3.06 2.80 -0.26 manufacturers would rise. Among the technical buy stocks that we 3 BURSA MALAYSIA 6.20 6.00 -0.20 like are: ADVENTA, AFG, AIRPORT, HARTA, KLCCP, KOSSAN, 4 PUB BANK-FOREIGN 8.65 8.45 -0.20 5 NPC RESOURCES BH 1.99 1.80 -0.19 SUPERMX, TOPGLOV and TWSPLNT. KLCI Line Chart KLCI: Key Points  The May KLCIF is at a 5.12-point discount to the KLCI  Take some profits at 980 and 996  Nibble on dips to the supports of 954 and 974  Key Bearish Engulfing High sighted at 996.80 Lee Cheng Hooi chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com (603) 2297 8694
  7. 7. Technicals KLCI Daily Chart TECHNICALS 52 Week High : 1,305.09 : TAKE PROFITS Strategy 52 Week Low : 801.27 CCI : Positive Support S1/S2 : 957 & 974 DMI : Positive Resistance R1/R2 : 980 & 996 MACD : Positive Oscillator : Positive Upside target T1/T2 : 1,008 & 1,043 (deferred) RSI : Overbought (72) Stop-loss : 955 Stochastic : Negative Upward Period : 2 days to 2 months Trend : Up MARKET ROUNDUP The KLCI traded much lower on broad-based profit-taking activities and the index settled at 980.12 with a 12.56-point loss. Some stocks that led the decline were GENTING, SIME, TENAGA, COMMERZ and ASTRO. Technical Viewpoint: Due to its superb and positive price and very high volume trends recently, the KLCI is in its Wave 4C “Flat” corrective rise from the 936.63 high (Wave 4A) and the 836.51 low (Wave 4B) respectively. The Wave iii/4C move stalled at 996.80 high yesterday. A Wave iv/4C correction move is underway for the next few days. The index may find some buying interest at its support levels of 957 and 974, while the firm resistance areas of 980 and 996 will cap its rise for today. With the heavy volumes and selling yesterday, the market is due to make a correction move ahead of the Labour Day holiday. Some volatility could be expected for the next 3 days. However, the correction phase could be short and swift as the upward momentum could be lost otherwise. With the Bearish Engulfing Candle pattern that emerged yesterday, the KLCI could retrace to 965.95, 958.82 and 946.99 before heading higher. KLCI Futures reading: The May contract moved to a 5.12-point discount to the KLCI. Traders will trade the range for the KLCIF today with a profit-taking bias. Nibble at the support areas of 948.0 and 967.0 and take profit at the 975.0 and 1,002.0-resistance zone. Technicals  28 April 2009 Page 2 of 5
  8. 8. Technicals Daily Trading Idea ADVENTA – RM1.07 FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) (Stock Code: 7191) (Bloomberg Code: ADV MK Equity) Adventa Berhad (ADVENTA) manufactures and distributes sterile surgical and medical examination gloves as well as distributes medical and hospital related products. It also generates and supplies energy and electricity using biomass technology. FUNDAMENTALS TECHNICALS Board / Sector : Main / Industrial Products CCI : Positive Par Value : RM0.50 DMI : Positive Market Cap. : RM147.5m MACD : Positive 52 Week High : RM1.34 Stochastic : Positive 52 Week Low : RM0.60 Oscillator : Positive Book Value / Share : RM1.01 RSI : V Overbought (81) Beta vs. KLCI : 0.87 Dividend/share : 4.4sen Support S1/S2 : RM0.86 & 1.07 Historical EPS : 8.5sen Resistance R1/R2 : RM1.12 & 1.32 Historical P/E : 12.4x Trend : Up Historical Ind. P/E : 10.7x Upside target T1/T2 : RM1.24 & 1.54 Historical Net Profit : RM11.9m Stop-loss : RM0.84 Avg. Daily 3mth Vol. : 0.05m shares Upward Period : 2 days to 1 month Recommendation ADVENTA made a Wave 5 low of RM0.60 in Nov ’08, with grossly oversold and bullish divergent signals. The stock is in a firm Wave 3 uptrend, confirmed by the positive crossover from the CCI, DMI, MACD, Stochastic and Oscillator indicators. We feel that ADVENTA will rise and test the stipulated resistance and target levels. FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) on dips for ADVENTA with good support areas at RM0.86 and RM1.07, with fine potential to reach its stipulated resistance and target areas of RM1.24 and RM1.54. Stop-loss is at RM0.84. Technicals  28 April 2009 Page 3 of 5
  9. 9. Technicals Daily Trading Idea SUPERMX – RM1.60 FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) (Stock Code: 7106) (Bloomberg Code: SUCB MK Equity) Supermax Corporation Berhad (SUPERMX) is an investment holding company whose subsidiaries manufacture, sell, and export various types of latex gloves around the world. FUNDAMENTALS TECHNICALS Board / Sector : Main / Industrial Product CCI : Positive Par Value : RM0.50 DMI : Positive Market Cap. : RM421.8m MACD : Positive 52 Week High : RM1.78 Stochastic : Positive 52 Week Low : RM0.78 Oscillator : Positive Book Value / Share : RM1.57 RSI : V Overbought (81) Beta vs. KLCI : 0.86 Dividend/share : 3.3sen Support S1/S2 : RM1.34 & 1.60 Historical EPS : 17.5sen Resistance R1/R2 : RM1.78 & 1.96 Historical P/E : 9.1x Trend : Up Historical Ind. P/E : 10.7x Upside target T1/T2 : RM1.90 & 2.20 Historical Net Profit : RM46.5m Stop-loss : RM1.32 Avg. Daily 3mth Vol. : 0.6m shares Upward Period : 2 days to 1 month Recommendation SUPERMX made a Wave 5 low of RM0.78 in Feb ’09, with grossly oversold and overbought signals. Indicators (like CCI, DMI, MACD, Stochastic and Oscillator) confirm its very strong Wave 3 uptrend. As such, SUPERMX will rise further and test the stipulated resistance and target levels. FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) for SUPERMX, with strong support areas seen at RM1.34 and RM1.60, with great potential to reach its stipulated resistance and target areas of RM1.78 and RM1.96. Stop-loss is at RM1.32. Technicals  28 April 2009 Page 4 of 5
  10. 10. Technicals Definition of Technical Ratings Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following technical rating system: FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to exceed 20% in the next 1 month. ACCUMULATE (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 2 weeks. STRONG SELL (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 20% in the next 1 month. TAKE PROFIT (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 10% in the next 2 weeks. SHORT-TERM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be between 5-10% in the next 2 weeks. However, the upside may or may not be sustainable. Applicability of Technical Ratings Technical ratings are purely based on price and volume-related indicators extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, explained in the Glossary below. Featured securities are selected as and when their technical indicators appear convincing for an investment action. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise its Technical Ratings to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Glossary of key technical terms COMMODITY CHANNEL An oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when an investment vehicle has been overbought and INDEX (CCI) oversold. It quantifies the relationship between the asset's price, a moving average (MA) of the asset's price, and normal deviations (D) from that average. DIRECTIONAL An indicator for identifying when a definable trend is present in an instrument, i.e. the DMI tells whether an MOVEMENT INDEX (DMI) instrument is trending or not. MOVING AVERAGE A trend lagging momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A “signal line” is also plotted on top of the MACD to function as a trigger for buy and sell signals. CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE (MACD) OSCILLATOR A technical analysis tool that is banded between two extreme values and built with the results from a trend indicator for discovering short-term overbought or oversold conditions. As the oscillator approaches the upper extreme value the stock is overbought, while in the lower extreme it is oversold. RELATIVE STRENGTH A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent losses to determine overbought and INDEX (RSI) oversold conditions of the stock. The stock is overbought (overvalued) once the RSI approaches the 80-level. Meanwhile, the stock is oversold (undervalued) as the RSI approaches the 20-level. STOCHASTIC A technical momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a given time period. The stock is overbought when the indicator is above 80 and oversold when it is below 20. Source: Investopedia.com Disclaimer This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, its affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and Maybank Investment Bank Bhd accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Published / Printed by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (Formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8, MaybanLife Tower, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136 http://www.maybank-ib.com Technicals  28 April 2009 Page 5 of 5

×