Market Wrap for Global Market

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WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS …

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
• The KLCI touched a 6-month intraday
high of 942.4 points in tandem with
higher regional markets before closing
at 941.4 points for a gain of 3.8% over
the week.
• Regional markets strengthened on
gains in the U.S. markets and
optimism over the latest Japanese
government’s stimulus package.
• The market is anticipated to move in
tandem with overseas markets as
investors monitor the outlook for the
U.S. credit market, global economic
growth and interest rates.
STOCKMARKET COMMENTARY
The KLCI touched a 6-month intraday
high of 942.4 points on Friday in tandem
with higher regional markets and gains in
selected index stocks. The KLCI closed at
941.4 points for a gain of 3.8% over the
week.
Average daily trading volume increased to
0.9 bil units from 0.6 bil units over the
preceding week while average trading
value rose to RM1.2 bil from RM0.9 bil
over the same period.
On Wall Street, share prices rose to a 2-
month intraday high of 8,087 points on
Thursday following better-than-expected
1Q2009 corporate earnings announced by
a major U.S. financial institution. The
Dow closed at 8,083 points for a gain of
0.8% while the Nasdaq rose by 1.9% to
1,653 points over the week.
U.S exports declined the most in 16 years
by 16.9% in February after contracting by
16.5% in January on lower exports of
industrial supplies, capital goods and
automobiles. Imports contracted by 28.8%
from a decline of 22.8% over the same
period. The cumulative U.S. trade deficit
for the first two months of 2009 narrowed
by 48.6% to US$62.2bil compared to the

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  • 1. MARKET WRAP: WEEK ENDED WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS 10 APRIL’09 • The KLCI touched a 6-month intraday Bursa Securities vs Public Mutual’s performance* high of 942.4 points in tandem with 10 Apr'09 03 Apr'09 % chng KL Composite 941.38 907.01 +3.8 higher regional markets before closing FBMS Shariah 6,537.57 6,247.93 +4.6 at 941.4 points for a gain of 3.8% over MSCI FEXJ# 299.76 293.51 +2.1 the week. MSCI World 217.27 214.96 +1.1 Local Funds PSF 0.5305 0.5162 +2.8 • Regional markets strengthened on PGF 0.3929 0.3789 +3.7 gains in the U.S. markets and PIX 0.5071 0.4901 +3.5 optimism over the latest Japanese PIF 0.4241 0.4127 +2.8 PAGF 0.5101 0.4927 +3.5 government’s stimulus package. PRSF 0.4165 0.4025 +3.5 PBF 0.6523 0.6389 +2.1 • The market is anticipated to move in P SmallCap 0.6084 0.5886 +3.4 PEF 0.2281 0.2201 +3.6 tandem with overseas markets as PFSF 0.1685 0.1634 +3.1 investors monitor the outlook for the PDSF 0.2281 0.2205 +3.4 U.S. credit market, global economic PSSF 0.1813 0.1749 +3.7 growth and interest rates. PBBF 0.7442 0.7311 +1.8 PBGF 0.6581 0.6419 +2.5 Local Islamic Funds STOCKMARKET COMMENTARY P Ittikal 0.7365 0.7142 +3.1 PIEF 0.2626 0.2539 +3.4 The KLCI touched a 6-month intraday PIOF 0.2381 0.2275 +4.7 PIBF 0.2226 0.2169 +2.6 high of 942.4 points on Friday in tandem PIDF 0.2548 0.2475 +2.9 with higher regional markets and gains in PISSF 0.1830 0.1765 +3.7 selected index stocks. The KLCI closed at PISTF 0.2138 0.2091 +2.2 941.4 points for a gain of 3.8% over the PIOGF 0.1985 0.1930 +2.8 PISEF 0.2545 0.2466 +3.2 week. PBIEF 0.1872 0.1806 +3.7 Foreign Funds^ Average daily trading volume increased to PFES 0.2059 0.2036 +1.1 PRSEC 0.1838 0.1807 +1.7 0.9 bil units from 0.6 bil units over the PGSF 0.1617 0.1608 +0.6 preceding week while average trading PFEDF 0.1840 0.1819 +1.2 value rose to RM1.2 bil from RM0.9 bil PFEBF 0.1834 0.1830 +0.2 over the same period. PGBF 0.1808 0.1802 +0.3 PCSF 0.1450 0.1430 +1.4 PFEPRF 0.1365 0.1374 -0.7 On Wall Street, share prices rose to a 2- PSEASF 0.1512 0.1515 -0.2 month intraday high of 8,087 points on PFECTF 0.2111 0.2079 +1.5 Thursday following better-than-expected PCTF 0.2026 0.2004 +1.1 PFETIF 0.2622 0.2627 -0.2 1Q2009 corporate earnings announced by PBAEF 0.2050 0.2024 +1.3 a major U.S. financial institution. The PBADF 0.1571 0.1575 -0.3 Dow closed at 8,083 points for a gain of PBEPEF 0.1406 0.1399 +0.5 PBCPEF 0.1339 0.1316 +1.7 0.8% while the Nasdaq rose by 1.9% to PBCAEF 0.2312 0.2306 +0.3 1,653 points over the week. PBAREIF 0.1799 0.1804 -0.3 Foreign Islamic Funds^ U.S exports declined the most in 16 years PAIF 0.2045 0.2028 +0.8 PIADF 0.1696 0.1684 +0.7 by 16.9% in February after contracting by PIABF 0.1902 0.1891 +0.6 16.5% in January on lower exports of PCIF 0.1567 0.1559 +0.5 industrial supplies, capital goods and PBIAEF 0.1731 0.1712 +1.1 automobiles. Imports contracted by 28.8% PBIASSF 0.1438 0.1426 +0.8 Capital Protected Funds from a decline of 22.8% over the same PCPSPF 1.0254 1.0238 +0.2 period. The cumulative U.S. trade deficit PBCPDF 0.9915 0.9922 -0.1 for the first two months of 2009 narrowed PBCPRF 1.0121 1.0115 +0.1 # by 48.6% to US$62.2bil compared to the *Buying Price, in USD ^ NAV as at 9 Apr’09. Non-business day for 10 Apr’09 1
  • 2. Other Markets’ Performance same period last year. The Institute of 10 Apr'09 03 Apr'09 % chng Supply Management’s (ISM) Non- Dow Jones 8,083^ 8,018 +0.8 Manufacturing Index eased for the second Nasdaq 1,653^ 1,622 +1.9 consecutive month to 40.8 in March from Nikkei 8,964 8,750 +2.4 41.6 in February on lower new orders and SH Comp 2,444 2,420 +1.0 employment. U.S. initial jobless claims for China*, H share 8,832^ 8,575 +3.0 the week ended 3rd April 2009 fell to Hong Kong 14,901^ 14,546 +2.4 Taiwan 5,782 5,530 +4.6 654,000 claims compared to 674,000 South Korea 1,336 1,284 +4.1 claims in the preceding week. Singapore 1,829^ 1,821 +0.4 Thailand 454 446 +1.8 After easing below US$50/brl on 7th April Indonesia 1,466# 1,500 -2.3 2009, crude oil prices rose to close at * Hang Seng China Enterprise Index US$52.24/brl due to a decline in U.S. oil ^ Index as at 9 Apr’09. # Index as at 8 Apr’09 inventories to register a weekly loss of 0.5%. Bursa Securities Market Valuations^ On the local front, Malaysia’s industrial 10 Apr'09 03 Apr'09 9 yr ave* production fell for the sixth consecutive KLCI 941.38 907.01 - month, by 14.7% in February after PER'09(x) 15.91 15.37 16.63 contracting by 19.8% in January due to Price/NTA(x) 2.59 2.55 2.33 declines in the mining, manufacturing and 3mth InterBk 2.11% 2.11% 3.27% utility sectors. Malaysia’s foreign reserves *2000-2008 average ^PMB In-House Statistics rose by RM3.9 billion to RM320.7 billion on a year-to-date basis to 31st March 2009 Malaysia’s Economic Snapshot after accounting for the quarterly 2007 2008 2009F adjustment of foreign exchange -1.0 to +1.0* GDP growth, % 6.3 4.6 revaluation gains. 1.6# Inflation, % 2.0 5.4 12mth Fix Dep, % 3.75 3.70 2.50 The Malaysian Ringgit registered a * Bank Negara Malaysia forecast # Consensus forecast weekly loss of 2.0% to RM3.610 on Bursa Securities 9 year P/E Ratio concerns over slower economic activities. 30 On a year-to-date basis, the Ringgit 28 depreciated by 4.4% against the 26 P/E Ratio (x) greenback. Average: 16.6x 24 22 Looking ahead, the local market is 20 anticipated to continue moving in tandem 18 16 with overseas markets over the near term. 14 Investors will continue to monitor the 12 outlook for the U.S. credit market, global 10 economic activities and interest rates. 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 At the KLCI’s closing level of 941.4 points on 10th April 2009, the local stock market is valued at a P/E of 15.9x on 2009 earnings, which is at a discount of 4.2% to the 9-year average P/E ratio of 16.6x. The local market is also supported by a gross dividend yield of about 5%, which exceeds its 9-year average of 3.4% and the current 12-month fixed deposit rate of 2.5%. 2
  • 3. REGIONAL MARKET WRAP: FORTNIGHTLY WEEK ENDED REGIONAL MARKETS 10 APRIL’09 COMMENTARY Regional Markets Performance WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS 10 Apr'09 03 Apr'09 % chng KLCI 941 907 +3.8 • Regional markets strengthened on MSCI FEXJ# 300 294 +2.1 gains in the U.S. markets and China*, H share 8,832^ 8,575 +3.0 optimism over the latest Japanese SH Comp 2,444 2,420 +1.0 Hong Kong 14,901^ 14,546 +2.4 government’s stimulus package. Taiwan 5,782 5,530 +4.6 Nikkei 8,964 8,750 +2.4 • China’s exports contracted at a slower South Korea 1,336 1,284 +4.1 pace by 17.1% in March after Singapore 1,829^ 1,821 +0.4 declining by 25.7% in February. Thailand 454 446 +1.8 However, Taiwan’s exports continued Indonesia 1,466^^ 1,500 -2.3 Philippines 2,073^^ 2,029 +2.2 to decline further by 35.7% after # in USD * Hang Seng China Enterprise Index contracting by 28.6% over the same ^ Index as at 9 Apr’09. ^^Index as at 8 Apr’09 period. Regional Economies Snapshot • The Japanese government unveiled a GDP Growth (%) 2007 2008 2009f new stimulus package of US$154 China 13.0 9.0 6.7 billion on 9th April 2009 to help boost Indonesia 6.3 6.1 4.0 Japan’s GDP by 2% for 2009. Philippines 7.3 4.6 3.5 Thailand 4.8 2.6 -4.0 • The outlook for regional equity Hong Kong 6.4 2.5 -3.0 markets will depend on the trend in South Korea 5.0 2.5 -4.1 regional exports, the impact of fiscal Singapore 7.7 1.2 -3.8 stimulus in each country, the outlook Taiwan 5.7 0.1 -5.4 for U.S. economic growth and reform Japan 2.4 -0.8 -5.8 Source : International Monetary Fund, f=forecast in the U.S. financial sector. Regional Markets Valuations STOCKMARKET COMMENTARY Prospective Estimated P/E Dividend For the week ended 10th April, the Taiwan (x) Yield (%) and South Korean markets rose by 4.6% Thailand 8.28 5.17 and 4.1% respectively as investor Philippines 10.24 4.71 sentiment improved following gains in the Singapore 12.42 4.43 U.S. markets and the announcement of an Hong Kong 13.07 4.00 Indonesia 8.74 3.81 additional US$154 billion stimulus Taiwan 28.21 3.73 package by the Japanese government on China ‘H’ 12.44 3.15 9th April to help stimulate the economy. Japan 41.98 1.84 The Hang China Enterprises Index also South Korea 13.79 1.83 rose by 3.0% while the Japanese and the Shanghai Comp 17.76 1.77 Hong Kong markets each registered gains Source: Bloomberg, 10 Apr’09 of 2.4% respectively. MSCI AC Far-East Ex-Japan- P/E RATIO PER South-East Asian markets also 26 strengthened with the Philippines and 23 Thailand markets rising by 2.2% and 1.8% Average: 15.85 20 respectively. However, the Indonesian 17 market fell by 2.3% over the same period. 14 11 8 10 Apr '09 = 15.01x 5 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 3
  • 4. China’s exports contracted at a slower pace by 17.1% in March after contracting by 25.7% in February on higher exports to selected Asian countries. Imports fell by 25.1% compared to a decline of 24.1% over the same period. The trade surplus for the first three months of 2009 widened by 53.2% to US$62.5bil compared to the same period last year. Taiwan’s exports fell further by 35.7% in March after contracting by 28.6% in February due to a decline in electronics and metal exports. Imports contracted by 49.5% compared to a decline of 31.6% over the same period. Taiwan’s trade surplus for the first three months of 2009 rose to US$8.5bil compared to US$3.3 billion registered in the same period last year. Taiwan’s inflation rate declined at slower pace of 0.2% in March after contracting by 1.3% in February on higher food prices. In addition to the stimulus plan of US$99 billion unveiled on 7th April 2009, the Japanese government unveiled a new stimulus package of US$154 billion on 9th April 2009 to help boost Japan’s GDP by 2% for 2009. The new stimulus, equivalent to 3.2% of GDP, includes tax cuts, credit guarantees and cash handouts. The near term outlook for regional equity markets will depend on the trend in regional exports, the impact of fiscal stimulus in each country, the outlook for U.S. economic growth and reform in the U.S. financial sector. The valuations of regional markets, as proxied by the MSCI Far East ex Japan Index, is at a P/E of 15.0x as at 10th April 2009, which offers a discount of 5.6% to the 21-year average P/E ratio of 15.9x. You are advised to read and understand the contents of the Master Prospectus of Public Series of Funds dated 30th April 2008 and expires on 29th April 2009, Master Prospectus of Public Series of Shariah-Based Funds dated 30th April 2008 and expires on 29th April 2009, Master Prospectus of PB Series of Funds dated 30th April 2008 and expires on 29th April 2009, Information Memorandum of PB Cash Plus Fund and PB Islamic Cash Plus Fund dated 1st March 2009 and expires on 28th February 2010, Prospectus of PB Capital Protected Dragon Fund dated 24th March 2008 and expires on 7th May 2008, Prospectus of Public Far-East Telco & Infrastructure Fund dated 8th July 2008 and expires on 29th April 2009, Prospectus of Public Capital Protected Select Portfolio Fund dated 29th July 2008 and expires on 11th September 2008, Prospectus of Public Islamic Select Enterprises Fund & Public Islamic Income Fund dated 14th August 2008 and expires on 29th April 2009 and Prospectus of PB Capital Protected Resources Fund dated 20th August 2008 and expires on 3rd October 2008 before investing. These prospectuses have been registered with the Securities Commission who takes no responsibility for their contents, and neither should their registration be interpreted to mean that the Commission recommends the investment. You should note that there are fees and charges involved; and that the prices of units and distribution payable, if any, may go down as well as up. Applications to purchase must come in the form of a duly completed application form referred to in and accompanying the prospectus. A copy of the prospectus can be obtained from your attending agent, corporate representative or nearest Public Mutual office. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. Public Mutual Berhad (23419-A) Block B, Sri Damansara Business Park, Persiaran Industri, Bandar Sri Damansara, 52200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. P.O. Box 10045, 50700 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 03-62796800 Fax: 603-62779800 Website:http://www.publicmutual.com.my 4