Further Easing In Inflation Rate

  • 456 views
Uploaded on

The Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2005=100) slowed for the eighth …

The Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2005=100) slowed for the eighth
consecutive month in Apr ’09 to 3% YoY (Maybank IB estimate:
3.3% YoY; Consensus estimate: 3.2% YoY), compared with 3.5% YoY
in Mar 09 and the peak of 8.5% YoY in Jul-Aug ’08. MoM, the inflation
rate fell by 0.2%, the seventh sequential drop in the past eight months.
Year-to-date inflation rate is 3.5%.
Slowing mainly on Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages (FNAB)
“disinflation” and Transport “deflation”. FNAB prices eased for the
seventh straight month while Transport costs fell for the fifth month in a
row. There were no major movements or changes in the price trends of
other goods and services. Consequently, our measure of CPI ex-FNAB
and Transport was little changed at 2% YoY last month (Mar 09: +2.1%
YoY).

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
456
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Equity Research PP11072/03/2010 (023549) Economics 21 May 2009 CPI, Apr 09 Further easing in inflation rate The Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2005=100) slowed for the eighth Suhaimi Ilias consecutive month in Apr ’09 to 3% YoY (Maybank IB estimate: Suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com 3.3% YoY; Consensus estimate: 3.2% YoY), compared with 3.5% YoY (603) 2297 8682 in Mar 09 and the peak of 8.5% YoY in Jul-Aug ’08. MoM, the inflation rate fell by 0.2%, the seventh sequential drop in the past eight months. Ramesh Lankanathan Year-to-date inflation rate is 3.5%. ramesh@maybank-ib.com Slowing mainly on Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages (FNAB) (603) 2297 8685 “disinflation” and Transport “deflation”. FNAB prices eased for the seventh straight month while Transport costs fell for the fifth month in a row. There were no major movements or changes in the price trends of other goods and services. Consequently, our measure of CPI ex-FNAB and Transport was little changed at 2% YoY last month (Mar 09: +2.1% YoY). Malaysia: Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2005=100) (% YoY) Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 YTD 2008 09 Total 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 3.5 5.4 Food and Non-Alcoholic 9.9 9.3 8.8 7.5 8.9 8.8 Beverages Alcoholic Beverages 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.3 and Tobacco Clothing and Footwear (0.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.5) Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 Other Fuels Furniture, Household Equipment and Routine 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.6 3.0 Household Maintenance Health 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.2 Transport (2.2) (2.2) (2.1) (2.3) (2.1) 8.8 Communication (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) Recreation Services 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.8 and Culture Education 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.3 Restaurants & Hotels 4.7 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.3 6.6 Miscellaneous Goods & 2.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 Services Source: Dept. of Statistics “Technical deflation” underway as we expect % YoY monthly inflation rate to go into negative territory between mid-year up to late- 3Q09/early-4Q09 on lower fuel prices as well as taking into account the falling producer price index (PPI) since Nov ‘08. We maintain our 2009 and 2010 inflation rate forecasts of 1% and 1.5% respectively, which is a marked deceleration from 5.4% in 2008 amid the absence of “demand-pull” and “cost-push” factors in view of the economic downturn and lower commodity prices.
  • 2. CPI, Apr 09 Malaysia: Consumer Price Index (CPI, % YoY) Malaysia: Consumer Price Index & Producer Price Index (% YoY) 14 25 9 15 8 12 20 7 10 10 PPI (RHS) 15 6 Transport (RHS) 5 8 5 10 6 4 FNAB 0 5 3 4 2 CPI 0 (5) 2 1 CPI (LHS) Utilities, Housing & Other Fuels 0 (5) 0 (10) Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 Nov-00 Nov-05 Jan-00 Jun-00 Jan-05 Jun-05 Jul-02 Jul-07 May-03 May-08 Feb-02 Mar-04 Feb-07 Mar-09 Apr-01 Oct-03 Apr-06 Oct-08 Sep-01 Dec-02 Aug-04 Sep-06 Dec-07 (1) (2) (15) Sources: Dept. of Statistics Sources: Dept. of Statistics The latest inflation number is not expected to have any bearing on the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 26 May amid the shift in the central bank’s Monetary Policy Statement and the Governor’s remarks recently to a more “upbeat” tone. This signals the pressures for further OPR rate cuts are significantly reduced. We expect the OPR to stay at 2% for the rest of this year and next year. Schedule of BNM’s MPC Meetings in 2009 Dates Outcome 21 Jan ’09 (Wednesday) 75bps reduction in OPR to 2.5% 24 Feb ’09 (Tuesday) 50bps reduction in OPR to 2% 29 Apr ’09 (Wednesday) OPR maintained at 2% 26 May ’09 (Tuesday) To be announced (TBA) 29 Jul ’09 (Wednesday) TBA 25 Aug ’09 (Tuesday) TBA 28 Oct ’09 (Wednesday) TBA 24 Nov ’09 (Tuesday) TBA Source: BNM 21 May 2009 Page 2 of 4
  • 3. CPI, Apr 09 Central Bank’s Sound Bites… Source Remarks about Economic Conditions & Outlook MPS, 24 Nov ‘08 …the outlook for global growth has deteriorated further. Several major advanced economies are now in recession amid severe stress in their respective financial systems. The sharp slowdown in global demand, the significant fall in commodity prices and the substantial decline in equity prices have exerted greater downward pressure on the growth prospects of regional economies. The adverse global developments have already affected the Malaysian economy, as evidenced by the slowdown in export performance and lower equity prices. While domestic demand remains resilient, there are indications of slower private sector activity amid some softening in the labour market conditions and a more challenging business environment. MPS, 21 Jan ‘09 The international economic and financial conditions have deteriorated much more significantly in the recent period. The major industrial economies are now experiencing a recession and this has significantly increased the risks to global growth. The sharper deterioration of the global economy is expected to have a greater impact on the Malaysian economy. The large decline in external demand has already led to a contraction in exports and a moderation in the pace of private investment activity. In addition, these developments have also affected labour market conditions. MPS, 24 Feb ‘09 The international economic and financial environment has deteriorated sharply in the recent quarter. The major advanced economies are experiencing a deepening economic contraction, while the regional economies are experiencing a rapid slowdown. The impact of the rapid decline in global demand on trade, production and investment activities in the Asian region has intensified…The downside risks to the global economic outlook have increased significantly. The Malaysian economy has been adversely impacted by these global developments... The domestic economic conditions are expected to continue to remain challenging in the coming quarters with the continued deterioration in the global economy… this has raised the risk of an economic contraction in 2009.... Governor, 27 Apr ’09 OPR cuts have been “front-loaded”. Therefore, if we see the improvement expected to take place in the second half of the year, and certainly further improvement going into next year, we should have done most of what we need to do now. Both global and local economies are expected to improve by the second half of the year. MPS, 29 Apr 2009 The global economic conditions deteriorated further in the first quarter of 2009. Major advanced economies are still experiencing a deepening economic contraction. Regional economies have also recorded a sharp economic slowdown in the first quarter. While the near-term economic outlook will continue to remain weak, the implementation of large stimulus measures by several countries has increased the prospects for economic conditions to improve in the second half of the year. The (Malaysian) economy, therefore, is expected to record a marked contraction in the first quarter of 2009. These conditions are expected to prevail until the second quarter of the year. Nevertheless, some signs of moderation in the pace of decline in economic activity have emerged. The current assessment is that the domestic economy is expected to improve in the second half of 2009, supported by stabilisation in global economic conditions and the larger impetus from the implementation of the fiscal stimulus measures. Going forward, the implementation of the fiscal stimulus measures, and the accommodative monetary environment following the previous reductions in the OPR, will provide support to domestic economic activity. Sources: BNM, Media Reports 21 May 2009 Page 3 of 4
  • 4. CPI, Apr 09 Definition of Ratings Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system: BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months HOLD Total return is expected to be between -5% to 10% in the next 12 months SELL Total return is expected to be below -5% in the next 12 months Applicability of Ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies. Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear): Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax Disclaimer This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, its affiliates and related companies and their officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice. This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward- looking statements. Maybank Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. This report is prepared for the use of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd's clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and Maybank Investment Bank Bhd accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Published / Printed by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) (Formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad) (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194 Stockbroking Business: Level 8, MaybanLife Tower, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888; Fax: (603) 2282 5136 http://www.maybank-ib.com 21 May 2009 Page 4 of 4