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The book: The thinking pill and othertechnologies that change your lifeOur life in twenty years    - Life science and Medi...
Limits to man (summary)  • Is there a limit to age?          - technology to support the elder  • Man-made molecular life;...
Basic consumer expenditures decreased from 51% to 30% of   35                    GDP in only 45 years                     ...
Expenditures for health, longevity and amusementhave grown from 17% to 35% of GDP in the past 45 years35                  ...
Copenhagen consensus 200410 challenges facing humanity - climate change - communicable diseases - conflicts and arm prolif...
Brundland (1987):Sustainable development is a social development,which fulfills the need of present generations withoutend...
Engineering and society triangleThe engineer changes the world with his machines
Society ideologies determine definition of society challengesProgress through technology         Power through technology
Technology - Science - Art        function        DESIGN form              material                              Adapted f...
Schumpeters conjuctuurcycli: 1 is de Kondratieff-cyclus;2 is de Juglar-cyclus; 3 is de Kitchin-cyclus; 4 is deresulterende...
Complex phenomena:Emergence of new phenomena as a function of scale parameterExample:Physics of river current with increas...
Sustainable society (1) - “The finite earth” (motto)1. Rigid energy supply;         centralized versus decentralized      ...
Sustainable society (2) - “The finite earth” (motto)5. The ideal factory;           small, modular, efficient catalysis de...
Sustainability concerns the continuation of ourcurrent human civilizationLiving system(selforganization outside equilibriu...
Sustainable dynamical trangle      Sustainable society Threads             Adaptation survival
Ecological adaptationType I: colonization        Primary concern growth. Exhaustion of        environment is secundary- gr...
Ecological adaptationType II: consolidation        Primary concern survival (draught, cold)- root-stem formation- industri...
Ecological adaptationType III: Sustainable, self supporting, “zero”          (minimum) emission system, adaptive,         ...
Example: soda process• until 1750; …………….from seaweed• 1780 Le Blanc process: raw materials: salt, sulphuric acid, coal,  ...
ThreadLimited adaptation; destruction
Figure 1 | Inequality in economic growth. a, Although gross world product and the value of exportsthroughout the world ros...
UtopiaHuman     Extended healthy life                 - well beingSociety          Peaceful coexistance                 - ...
Adapted from Ruddiman, Scientific American 2002
Source: Nature, Vol. 437, 27 October 2005Hans Joachim Schnellnhuber’s map of global ‘tipping points’ in climatic change
Source:The Skeptical EnvironmentalistBjørn LomborgCambridge University Press 2001
Source:Energy at the Crossroads:Global Perspectives and UncertaintiesVaclav SmilThe MIT Press 2003
Source:Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge Univers...
Source:Energy at the Crossroads:Global Perspectives and UncertaintiesVaclav SmilThe MIT Press 2003
Source: Science Vol 311 10 February 2006, pp. 764Article: A Budget With Big Winners and Losers
Source:Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge Univers...
Source:Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge Univers...
Source: Science Vol 311 27 January 2006, pp. 484Article: The Path Forward for Biofuels and Biomaterials
Source:The Skeptical EnvironmentalistBjørn LomborgCambridge University Press 2001
Sustainable societyScientific issue - Stability analysis of complex systems (climate;                 stability rainforest...
Outcome of the book:     - Technology is a necessity to maintain human civilization     - The challenge to technology is t...
Essential technologies- Pattern recognition (data mining)      - imaging (hardware)      - resolution, speed- Communicatio...
Essential technologies- Materials      - electronic, mechanical      - smart, self-healing      - tissue engineering      ...
UtopiaHuman     Extended healthy life                 - well beingSociety          Peaceful coexistance                 - ...
Ecological adaptation   versus   Disruptive change through                                 human thrive
Booosting nieuwjaarsborrel 2009 _boek rutger van santen
Booosting nieuwjaarsborrel 2009 _boek rutger van santen
Booosting nieuwjaarsborrel 2009 _boek rutger van santen
Booosting nieuwjaarsborrel 2009 _boek rutger van santen
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Transcript of "Booosting nieuwjaarsborrel 2009 _boek rutger van santen "

  1. 1. The book: The thinking pill and othertechnologies that change your lifeOur life in twenty years - Life science and Medical Technology - Sustainable technologies - CommunicationQuestions? - Fundamental barriers - Solutions and resulting technologies - Impact society
  2. 2. Limits to man (summary) • Is there a limit to age? - technology to support the elder • Man-made molecular life; self replicating robots? - man’s release of boring tasks • Intelligent computers? - solution to data-explosion - human embedded computational intelligence ,replacement of human intelligence? - man’s responsibility for decision making, free-will?
  3. 3. Basic consumer expenditures decreased from 51% to 30% of 35 GDP in only 45 years Food and tobacco 30 25 Housing 20 Clothing etc 15 Food and tobacco 10 5 Housing 0 Clothing etc -5 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Witholt, ETH Zurich 2006
  4. 4. Expenditures for health, longevity and amusementhave grown from 17% to 35% of GDP in the past 45 years35 Med care3025 Recreation20 Personal Business15 Med care10 5 Recreation 0 Personal Business-5 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Witholt, ETH Zurich 2006
  5. 5. Copenhagen consensus 200410 challenges facing humanity - climate change - communicable diseases - conflicts and arm prolifiration - access to education - financial instability - gouvernance and corruption - malnutrition and hunger - migration - sanitation and access to clean water - subsidies and trade barriersFrom B. Lomborg, Global crises, global solutions; Cambridge 2004
  6. 6. Brundland (1987):Sustainable development is a social development,which fulfills the need of present generations withoutendangering the possibilities of fulfillment of the needsof future generations
  7. 7. Engineering and society triangleThe engineer changes the world with his machines
  8. 8. Society ideologies determine definition of society challengesProgress through technology Power through technology
  9. 9. Technology - Science - Art function DESIGN form material Adapted from Ludwig Mies von der Rohe, 1921 Bauhaus
  10. 10. Schumpeters conjuctuurcycli: 1 is de Kondratieff-cyclus;2 is de Juglar-cyclus; 3 is de Kitchin-cyclus; 4 is deresulterende samengestelde cyclus.
  11. 11. Complex phenomena:Emergence of new phenomena as a function of scale parameterExample:Physics of river current with increasing stream velocity, slow stream small waves eddy’s turbulenceEmotionNo sound musical sound thunder
  12. 12. Sustainable society (1) - “The finite earth” (motto)1. Rigid energy supply; centralized versus decentralized distribution2. Sense or nonsense of biodiesel; food versus energy - bio diversity3. A nuclear future?; threads - challenges politics4. Fossil future; new clean or alternative technologies
  13. 13. Sustainable society (2) - “The finite earth” (motto)5. The ideal factory; small, modular, efficient catalysis design6. A world without hunger; watermanegement, sustainable agriculture; logistics7. Life on a vulcano; sensors, communication, organization8. A world wide balance; material cycles, extra terrestial life
  14. 14. Sustainability concerns the continuation of ourcurrent human civilizationLiving system(selforganization outside equilibrium)has to produce entropy(waste)Evolutionary dynamics (as in biological ecology) isalso characteristic for human forms of civilizationKey is adaptation through technological and socialInnovationTechnology gives solutions as well as problems
  15. 15. Sustainable dynamical trangle Sustainable society Threads Adaptation survival
  16. 16. Ecological adaptationType I: colonization Primary concern growth. Exhaustion of environment is secundary- grass hoppers destr.: plants in the desert- archeological processes (iron, copper)- first industrial revolution
  17. 17. Ecological adaptationType II: consolidation Primary concern survival (draught, cold)- root-stem formation- industrialization with attention for primary environmental effects. Substitution of natural products, selective catalysis
  18. 18. Ecological adaptationType III: Sustainable, self supporting, “zero” (minimum) emission system, adaptive, selfrepair- Tropical rain forest. Specialization of functions, interdependance- Sustainable human society; complex interaction of human artefacts with industrial production: intelligent systems
  19. 19. Example: soda process• until 1750; …………….from seaweed• 1780 Le Blanc process: raw materials: salt, sulphuric acid, coal, calcium carbonate product: hydrogensulphide (detrimental to environment) and soda• 1870 Solvay process: …ammonia, carbondioxide and salt gives soda and Cl2
  20. 20. ThreadLimited adaptation; destruction
  21. 21. Figure 1 | Inequality in economic growth. a, Although gross world product and the value of exportsthroughout the world rose steadily during the period 1981–2001 (values relative to 1990 = 100), thenumber living below the US$2 per day poverty line has increased slightly. b, Whereas in 1820 thedifference between the mean incomes of the poorest 60% of countries and of the richest 10% wasfourfold, by 1992 the disparity was tenfold (value of mean income of poorest countries in 1820 = 1) R. Kerry Turner and Brendan Fischer, Nature 451, pp. 1067-1068 (2008).
  22. 22. UtopiaHuman Extended healthy life - well beingSociety Peaceful coexistance - culture - wealthEarth Sustainable future - natural resources - adaptationSpace Exploration - non-terrestial life? - resources? - threads
  23. 23. Adapted from Ruddiman, Scientific American 2002
  24. 24. Source: Nature, Vol. 437, 27 October 2005Hans Joachim Schnellnhuber’s map of global ‘tipping points’ in climatic change
  25. 25. Source:The Skeptical EnvironmentalistBjørn LomborgCambridge University Press 2001
  26. 26. Source:Energy at the Crossroads:Global Perspectives and UncertaintiesVaclav SmilThe MIT Press 2003
  27. 27. Source:Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge University Press 2005
  28. 28. Source:Energy at the Crossroads:Global Perspectives and UncertaintiesVaclav SmilThe MIT Press 2003
  29. 29. Source: Science Vol 311 10 February 2006, pp. 764Article: A Budget With Big Winners and Losers
  30. 30. Source:Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge University Press 2005
  31. 31. Source:Sustainable Fossil FuelsThe Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring EnergyMark JaccardCambridge University Press 2005
  32. 32. Source: Science Vol 311 27 January 2006, pp. 484Article: The Path Forward for Biofuels and Biomaterials
  33. 33. Source:The Skeptical EnvironmentalistBjørn LomborgCambridge University Press 2001
  34. 34. Sustainable societyScientific issue - Stability analysis of complex systems (climate; stability rainforest); network theory - Frictionless conversion of energy to motion; efficient primary to secundary energy conversion (molecular systems; precision engineering) -From craddle to cradle, nonemission society; recycle
  35. 35. Outcome of the book: - Technology is a necessity to maintain human civilization - The challenge to technology is to create predictable behaviour of complex systems - The challenge to science is to understand the interacting networks and building blocks that lead to the multiscale phenomena of natural world and universe - Technological innovation through organizational adaptation is also a necessity to maintain human civilization. V. Kandinsky, Blue Segment 1921
  36. 36. Essential technologies- Pattern recognition (data mining) - imaging (hardware) - resolution, speed- Communication - nano / molecular dimensional devices - embedded systems - hardware - software - networks - long range, short range
  37. 37. Essential technologies- Materials - electronic, mechanical - smart, self-healing - tissue engineering - complex molecular systems (biomimetics)- Robotics - integration - computer science - sensors and actors and materials
  38. 38. UtopiaHuman Extended healthy life - well beingSociety Peaceful coexistance - culture - wealthEarth Sustainable future - natural resources - adaptationSpace Exploration - non-terrestial life? - resources? - threads
  39. 39. Ecological adaptation versus Disruptive change through human thrive
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