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This is a comprehensive presentation on the state of the oil markets that I had done.a few years ago. While 2009 might sound rusty, it is important to understand that trends in commodities dont change ona dime especially oil markets. This ppt clearly shows that oil demand supply gap is growing at 5% or 4 mn bpd every year. Put otherwise we would have to discover 1 Saudi Arabia of oil every alternate year just to maintain the gap at where it is. It is like running in a running train.
Oil prices even now are quite cheap and should be priced at the marginal cost of the next most expensive barrel of oil. Without Iran tensions oil shoul dprobably be $200 in about a year