An Overview of Fiber to the Home Deployment - Status & TrendsFiberWeek 2010, CroatiaDr. Igor BrusicSBR Juconomy Consulting...
1   Why Fiber to the Home?2   FTTH Deployment Worldwide / Europe3   Economic Challenges4   Regulatory Challenges5   New Bu...
Introduction - SBR  SBR Juconomy Consulting AG offers sound business, technical, regulatory and  legal advice on regulated...
Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)?                                Source: http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html            ...
Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)?                     Source: A.T. Kearney/Hellenic Ministry of Transport&Communications/Broad...
Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)?                                Source: McKinsey&Company, Creating a Fiber Future, White Pape...
Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)?                         Source: OECD adapted from “Electricity and Economic Growth”, Committ...
Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)?                            Source: Based on Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital:...
Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)?  The choice is yours …                                9
11   Why Fiber to the Home?    Why Fiber to the Home?2   FTTH Deployment Worldwide / Europe33   Economic Challenges    Eco...
FTTH Global 2009                   Source: FTTH Council Europe                                      11
Countries (> 1% of FTTH)                           12
USA      13
Asia       14
Australia            15
Europe         16
Europe / Countries                     17
11   Why Fiber to the Home?    Why Fiber to the Home?22   FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe    FTTH Deployment Worldwide...
Economical challenges                                                                                                     ...
11   Why Fiber to the Home?    Why Fiber to the Home?22   FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe    FTTH Deployment Worldwide...
Regulatory challenges  If the fiber network is built by the incumbent, without regulatory  holidays, probably it has to be...
Possible solution    Hurdles                    Consequences                    SolutionMarket uncertainty                ...
1   Why Fiber to the Home?    Why Fiber to the Home?2   FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe    FTTH Deployment Worldwide E...
New business models                Passive Infrastructure       Active Infrastructure         Services AB Stokab        Da...
11   Why Fiber to the Home?    Why Fiber to the Home?22   FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe    FTTH Deployment Worldwide...
Summary Fiber as the new infrastructure     Difficult business model for operators     Private sector can´t capture social...
Outlook  Fibre is the ultimate solution of the broadband challenge  Mobile networks (LTE, WiMAX) are not competing but pro...
ContactSBR Juconomy Consulting AGNordstrasse 116                   Parkring 10/1/1040477 Düsseldorf                  1010 ...
Main incentive for FTTH for Iliad                                    Source: Iliad, FY 2008 Results and Strategy Presentat...
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FiberWeek_2010_An Overview of Fiber to the Home Deployment - Status & Trends

  1. 1. An Overview of Fiber to the Home Deployment - Status & TrendsFiberWeek 2010, CroatiaDr. Igor BrusicSBR Juconomy Consulting AGSplit, 29.04.2010 1
  2. 2. 1 Why Fiber to the Home?2 FTTH Deployment Worldwide / Europe3 Economic Challenges4 Regulatory Challenges5 New Business Models6 Summary and Outlook 2
  3. 3. Introduction - SBR SBR Juconomy Consulting AG offers sound business, technical, regulatory and legal advice on regulated markets in the telecoms sector and other network industries (post, electricity, gas, railways), as well as the media and information technology (ICT) segments Established on 1 March 2004 Track record of >100 projects in the telecommunication sector Consulting of utility service providers regarding the cooperation potential for fibre- based network roll-outs and regulatory questions concerning the use of different access technologies Ongoing support to municipalities and utility providers with regard to building their own broadband network infrastructure and the migration from unbundling local-loop to an FTTX strategy 3
  4. 4. Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)? Source: http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html 4
  5. 5. Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)? Source: A.T. Kearney/Hellenic Ministry of Transport&Communications/Broadband Strategy/May 2008 5
  6. 6. Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)? Source: McKinsey&Company, Creating a Fiber Future, White Paper, 2010 6
  7. 7. Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)? Source: OECD adapted from “Electricity and Economic Growth”, Committee on Electricity in Economic Growth, Energy Engineering Board, National Research Council (1986). 7
  8. 8. Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)? Source: Based on Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages, Carlota Perez; IBM 2004 Annual Report 8
  9. 9. Why Fibre to the Home (FTTH)? The choice is yours … 9
  10. 10. 11 Why Fiber to the Home? Why Fiber to the Home?2 FTTH Deployment Worldwide / Europe33 Economic Challenges Economic Challenges44 Regulatory Challenges Regulatory Challenges55 New Business Models New Business Models66 Summary and Outlook Summary and Outlook 10
  11. 11. FTTH Global 2009 Source: FTTH Council Europe 11
  12. 12. Countries (> 1% of FTTH) 12
  13. 13. USA 13
  14. 14. Asia 14
  15. 15. Australia 15
  16. 16. Europe 16
  17. 17. Europe / Countries 17
  18. 18. 11 Why Fiber to the Home? Why Fiber to the Home?22 FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe FTTH Deployment Worldwide Europe3 Economic Challenges44 Regulatory Challenges Regulatory Challenges55 New Business Models New Business Models66 Summary and Outlook Summary and Outlook 18
  19. 19. Economical challenges Very strong dependency How much has to be invested? on revenue and number of users How much the user is ready to pay? Fixed costs and variable costs Highest investments costs in access network infra- structure because of civil work (50-80%) Operators are investing if: Business model is How many users will pay for it? positive, or Strategic decisionSource: Dr. Raul Katz: Ultrabroadband telco investment models; Ultra Broadband Seminar, Paris, April 2008 19
  20. 20. 11 Why Fiber to the Home? Why Fiber to the Home?22 FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe FTTH Deployment Worldwide Europe33 Economic Challenges Economic Challenges4 Regulatory Challenges55 New Business Models New Business Models66 Summary and Outlook Summary and Outlook 20
  21. 21. Regulatory challenges If the fiber network is built by the incumbent, without regulatory holidays, probably it has to be open for use by alternative operators Symmetrical or asymmetrical regulation? Ex-ante or ex-post obligations/remedies? Focus on infrastructure or service competition? Higher return on capital invest because of higher risk? Defining network elements, for which SMP is relevant and to which access is to be granted (ducts, dark fiber, collocation) 21
  22. 22. Possible solution Hurdles Consequences SolutionMarket uncertainty Private sector will Harmonizing of investment Harmonizing of investment probably hold back incentives and operator‘s incentives and operator‘sRegulatory uncertainty with investments in strategies through strategies through• Regulatory holidays – PPP-Projects fiber if pay back is not – PPP-Projects• SMP analysis ensured under given – – Open Access Models Open Access Models market and regulatory – – Obligation to provide Obligation to provide conditions wholesale-offers wholesale-offersFostering of investment 22
  23. 23. 1 Why Fiber to the Home? Why Fiber to the Home?2 FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe FTTH Deployment Worldwide Europe3 Economic Challenges Economic Challenges4 Regulatory Challenges Regulatory Challenges5 New Business Models66 Summary and Outlook Summary and Outlook 23
  24. 24. New business models Passive Infrastructure Active Infrastructure Services AB Stokab Dark Fiber Provider 1 many plenty ndix Digital Marketplace Provider 1 plentySingapore and NetCo OpCo Retail Service Provider Australia Provider 1 1 plenty Schwerte and Verticaly integrated operator M-net Provider 1 24
  25. 25. 11 Why Fiber to the Home? Why Fiber to the Home?22 FTTH Deployment Worldwide // Europe FTTH Deployment Worldwide Europe33 Economic Challenges Economic Challenges44 Regulatory Challenges Regulatory Challenges55 New Business Modells New Business Modells6 Summary and Outlook 25
  26. 26. Summary Fiber as the new infrastructure Difficult business model for operators Private sector can´t capture social benefits and economical impact (externalities like rising employment, higher tax income, reduced outflow of people, business settlement, CO2 reduction, etc.) Governmental support can be essential (Sweden) Rural areas are in a unfavorable position (World) Regulation matters but regulatory holiday can´t save rural areas (USA) Fiber is squeezing out xDSL (Japan) Municipality networks and open access as a possible solution (Europe) There is no „one-fits-all“ approach in deploying fibre 26
  27. 27. Outlook Fibre is the ultimate solution of the broadband challenge Mobile networks (LTE, WiMAX) are not competing but promoting the acceptance of FTTH Infrastructure competition is not a way to count on fostering national fibre roll-out Governments have to play a bigger role by Promoting e-government, telemedicine, telework and online learning Favorable tax policies Investing/funding fiber roll-outs in rural areas But this is not (yet) part of the Croatian government economy recovery program (http://www.slideshare.net/manjgura/program-gospodarskog-oporavka) 27
  28. 28. ContactSBR Juconomy Consulting AGNordstrasse 116 Parkring 10/1/1040477 Düsseldorf 1010 WienDeutschland ÖsterreichTel: + 49 211 68 78 88 0 Tel: + 43 1 513 514 0 15 Fax: + 43 1 513 514 0 95Fax: + 49 211 68 78 88 33 URL: www.sbr-net.comURL: www.sbr-net.com E-mail: brusic@sbr-net.com 28
  29. 29. Main incentive for FTTH for Iliad Source: Iliad, FY 2008 Results and Strategy Presentation, March 19th 2009 29

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