Scenario Mapping:
                        Knowledge-based Processes
                         For Actionable Scenarios




...
What Is Scenario Mapping?

   A highly interactive scenario planning process

   A form of “simulated hindsight”

   Works...
Problems Addressed By Scenario Mapping

   Complexity

   Competing points of view

   Different people know different par...
Scenario Mapping Terminology
                                                                 Endstate A
  Endstate: a bri...
Why Use Scenarios?
  Planning as Forecasting                           Planning With Uncertainty
Х A forecast points to a ...
Endstates
   Written as if the future has already
                                                         Endstate D
   h...
Events
                                                             “Cold Fusion” Water
                                  ...
Each Team Identifies Must Happen Events
                                                                           Endstat...
A Scenario Is Story With A Plot
About Actors, Motives, Forces, Drivers, etc.

                                            ...
Common Events Appear In A Majority Of
Scenarios
                                                                          ...
Unique Events Appear In Only One Scenario
                                                                              En...
Endstate Systems Suggest Possible Relationships
All scenarios exist in parallel ―
                                        ...
Principal Scenario Mapping Workshop Steps


  Conventional                       Endstate          Endstate           Acti...
Project Steps And Post Workshop Alternatives

                                                                    Implemen...
Scenario Mapping Differentiators & Advantages
      Scenario-enabled strategies
            Not a prediction or forecast
 ...
Strategy Kinetics Can Help Your Organization

  Contact us today to find out how Strategy
   Kinetics can help your organi...
Contact Information


  Robert Weber, Ph.D.
  Managing Director,
  Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  Mobile: 617-308-3336 Fax: 617-...
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Scenario Mapping Introduction

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Overview presentation on Scenario Mapping, a methodology that combines "simulated hindsight" with "highly prepared meetings" Scenario Mapping is fractal: can be applied to large companies, business units, markets, products, etc.

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Scenario Mapping Introduction

  1. 1. Scenario Mapping: Knowledge-based Processes For Actionable Scenarios Robert Weber, Ph.D. Managing Director Strategy Kinetics, LLC Mobile: 617-308-3336 Fax: 617-812-0443 Weber@StrategyKinetics.com www.strategykinetics.com Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC 1
  2. 2. What Is Scenario Mapping? A highly interactive scenario planning process A form of “simulated hindsight” Workshops are “highly prepared,” structured meetings Has been used in nearly 100 strategic planning engagements in G1000 companies, government, education, and trade associations Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  3. 3. Problems Addressed By Scenario Mapping Complexity Competing points of view Different people know different parts of the problem Intra- (and inter-) organizational politics Alternatives, NOT forecasts, predictions Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  4. 4. Scenario Mapping Terminology Endstate A Endstate: a brief description of an extreme, but plausible future Event: a hypothetical occurrence at a specific 70 MPG Mandated point in the future. ------------------------- ------------------------- 2011 ± ------------------------ ------------------------ Scenario: a narrative describing the actors, A long time ago drivers, motives, and key events that lead from there was a dkjld kdjls k --- --- ---- ---- the present to a particular Endstate. -------------------------- -------------------------- ---------- Endstate System: A graphical or Visual Language representation of Endstate relationships Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  5. 5. Why Use Scenarios? Planning as Forecasting Planning With Uncertainty Х A forecast points to a There are many possible single future outcomes Х Uncertainty incorporated Scenarios embrace by adjusting the forecast uncertainty +10 % -10% NOW NOW NOW NOW Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  6. 6. Endstates Written as if the future has already Endstate D happened Endstate C Each reflects the outcome of diverse forces Endstate B Intentionally divergent visions of the Endstate A future Time horizon industry or problem specific 5 years – computing and – communications 40 years – global climate destruction – 60 years – forest products – Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  7. 7. Events “Cold Fusion” Water Heaters Commercially Are specific observable occurrences that could happen Available At least one company is offering Cold 2014 ± Fusion devices to heat water in the home. Crude Oil Hits $1 Reflect underlying drivers and 8 0 P er forces B ar r el Human “Bird Flu” Incorporate many competing Vaccine Plant issues and interests, for example: Contaminated 2015 ± Government – Markets and economies – Political, social, & cultural factors – The manufacturing plant of one of two major producer of influenza vaccine Technological innovations for – the US market wa 2 01 2 ± s found to be contaminated. This means that only National, International, Regional – half the amount of vaccine that includ es protection against the deadly “bird flu” will be av ailable in the US Market. Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  8. 8. Each Team Identifies Must Happen Events Endstate C Endstate B Endstate A Endstate D A red slash indicate a Must Not Happen event NOW NOW Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  9. 9. A Scenario Is Story With A Plot About Actors, Motives, Forces, Drivers, etc. Endstate C Endstate B Endstate A A long time ago there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd Once upon a time jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd ieuieo seksll ld jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie ------------------------------- ieuieo seksll ld In the beginning Endstate D ------------------------------- ------------------------------- there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ieuieo seksll ld ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- From its inception, there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie ieuieo seksll ld ------------------------------- ------------------------------- NOW NOW ------------------------------- A scenario is NOT a list of events Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  10. 10. Common Events Appear In A Majority Of Scenarios Endstate C Endstate B Endstate A Endstate D More participants have a stake in NOW NOW Common Events and will therefore pay more attention to these Events Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  11. 11. Unique Events Appear In Only One Scenario Endstate C Endstate B Endstate A Endstate D Scenarios that depend on many Unique NOW NOW Events may be high risk, but also high reward Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  12. 12. Endstate Systems Suggest Possible Relationships All scenarios exist in parallel ― Binary possibilities ― either / or different constituencies, geographic regions, political allies, etc. or Time matters ― evolutionary possibilities One scenario / alignment dominates Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  13. 13. Principal Scenario Mapping Workshop Steps Conventional Endstate Endstate Actions / Wisdom Defense Systems Policies Scenario If you want to For each Consideration Action plans change how Endstate, an of how and people think, analysis and Endstates responsibilities you first have narrative might be are key to show them indicating related (or not) workshop how they what it would outputs think. take to get there Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  14. 14. Project Steps And Post Workshop Alternatives Implement Action Items Typical Project Steps “War Room” / Environment Optional Monitoring Post Interviews / Materials Workshop Workshop Data Collection Preparation Steps Publish Results Repeat For Others Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  15. 15. Scenario Mapping Differentiators & Advantages Scenario-enabled strategies Not a prediction or forecast – Discards the idea of a “most likely” future – Explores various possibilities and their implications – Empowers participants to work toward their “best” future – Incorporates knowledge, biases, and beliefs across diverse stakeholder and policy groups Incorporates rather than minimizes uncertainty Provides a basis for dynamic, iterative strategic decision- making The ability to learn and act faster increases the likelihood of success over the long term Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  16. 16. Strategy Kinetics Can Help Your Organization Contact us today to find out how Strategy Kinetics can help your organization: • Anticipate the future of your organization, markets, product categories, etc. • Choose among alternative outcomes and strategies • Develop a detailed implementation plan Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC
  17. 17. Contact Information Robert Weber, Ph.D. Managing Director, Strategy Kinetics, LLC Mobile: 617-308-3336 Fax: 617-812-0443 Weber@StrategyKinetics.com www.strategykinetics.com Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

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