Scenario Mapping Introduction

Scenario Mapping: Knowledge-based Processes For Actionable Scenarios Robert Weber, Ph.D. Managing Director Strategy Kinetics, LLC Mobile: 617-308-3336 Fax: 617-812-0443 Weber@StrategyKinetics.com www.strategykinetics.com Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC 1

What Is Scenario Mapping? A highly interactive scenario planning process A form of “simulated hindsight” Workshops are “highly prepared,” structured meetings Has been used in nearly 100 strategic planning engagements in G1000 companies, government, education, and trade associations Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Problems Addressed By Scenario Mapping Complexity Competing points of view Different people know different parts of the problem Intra- (and inter-) organizational politics Alternatives, NOT forecasts, predictions Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Scenario Mapping Terminology Endstate A Endstate: a brief description of an extreme, but plausible future Event: a hypothetical occurrence at a specific 70 MPG Mandated point in the future. ------------------------- ------------------------- 2011 ± ------------------------ ------------------------ Scenario: a narrative describing the actors, A long time ago drivers, motives, and key events that lead from there was a dkjld kdjls k --- --- ---- ---- the present to a particular Endstate. -------------------------- -------------------------- ---------- Endstate System: A graphical or Visual Language representation of Endstate relationships Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Why Use Scenarios? Planning as Forecasting Planning With Uncertainty Х A forecast points to a There are many possible single future outcomes Х Uncertainty incorporated Scenarios embrace by adjusting the forecast uncertainty +10 % -10% NOW NOW NOW NOW Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Endstates Written as if the future has already Endstate D happened Endstate C Each reflects the outcome of diverse forces Endstate B Intentionally divergent visions of the Endstate A future Time horizon industry or problem specific 5 years – computing and – communications 40 years – global climate destruction – 60 years – forest products – Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Events “Cold Fusion” Water Heaters Commercially Are specific observable occurrences that could happen Available At least one company is offering Cold 2014 ± Fusion devices to heat water in the home. Crude Oil Hits $1 Reflect underlying drivers and 8 0 P er forces B ar r el Human “Bird Flu” Incorporate many competing Vaccine Plant issues and interests, for example: Contaminated 2015 ± Government – Markets and economies – Political, social, & cultural factors – The manufacturing plant of one of two major producer of influenza vaccine Technological innovations for – the US market wa 2 01 2 ± s found to be contaminated. This means that only National, International, Regional – half the amount of vaccine that includ es protection against the deadly “bird flu” will be av ailable in the US Market. Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

A Scenario Is Story With A Plot About Actors, Motives, Forces, Drivers, etc. Endstate C Endstate B Endstate A A long time ago there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd Once upon a time jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd ieuieo seksll ld jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie ------------------------------- ieuieo seksll ld In the beginning Endstate D ------------------------------- ------------------------------- there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ieuieo seksll ld ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- ------------------------------- From its inception, there was a dkjld kdjls kidkd jdkdllsk j djdkd ldnzn9 jdkiie ieuieo seksll ld ------------------------------- ------------------------------- NOW NOW ------------------------------- A scenario is NOT a list of events Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Common Events Appear In A Majority Of Scenarios Endstate C Endstate B Endstate A Endstate D More participants have a stake in NOW NOW Common Events and will therefore pay more attention to these Events Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Unique Events Appear In Only One Scenario Endstate C Endstate B Endstate A Endstate D Scenarios that depend on many Unique NOW NOW Events may be high risk, but also high reward Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Endstate Systems Suggest Possible Relationships All scenarios exist in parallel ― Binary possibilities ― either / or different constituencies, geographic regions, political allies, etc. or Time matters ― evolutionary possibilities One scenario / alignment dominates Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Principal Scenario Mapping Workshop Steps Conventional Endstate Endstate Actions / Wisdom Defense Systems Policies Scenario If you want to For each Consideration Action plans change how Endstate, an of how and people think, analysis and Endstates responsibilities you first have narrative might be are key to show them indicating related (or not) workshop how they what it would outputs think. take to get there Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Project Steps And Post Workshop Alternatives Implement Action Items Typical Project Steps “War Room” / Environment Optional Monitoring Post Interviews / Materials Workshop Workshop Data Collection Preparation Steps Publish Results Repeat For Others Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Scenario Mapping Differentiators & Advantages Scenario-enabled strategies Not a prediction or forecast – Discards the idea of a “most likely” future – Explores various possibilities and their implications – Empowers participants to work toward their “best” future – Incorporates knowledge, biases, and beliefs across diverse stakeholder and policy groups Incorporates rather than minimizes uncertainty Provides a basis for dynamic, iterative strategic decision- making The ability to learn and act faster increases the likelihood of success over the long term Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Strategy Kinetics Can Help Your Organization Contact us today to find out how Strategy Kinetics can help your organization: • Anticipate the future of your organization, markets, product categories, etc. • Choose among alternative outcomes and strategies • Develop a detailed implementation plan Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Contact Information Robert Weber, Ph.D. Managing Director, Strategy Kinetics, LLC Mobile: 617-308-3336 Fax: 617-812-0443 Weber@StrategyKinetics.com www.strategykinetics.com Copyright (c) 2005-2007 Strategy Kinetics, LLC

Scenario Mapping Introduction

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