VoteWatch post-elections analysis

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Presentation by Doru Frantescu of VoteWatch Europe at Europe Decides / VoteWatch Europe event on Monday 26 May

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VoteWatch post-elections analysis

  1. 1. The new EP balance of power: policy implications for next five years Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder, VoteWatch Europe How did Europe vote… and what does it mean for EU policy? The Microsoft Centre, Brussels, 26 May 2014
  2. 2. What impact on EP positions (and EU policy)? 2
  3. 3. 3 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Main outcome • Less support for strengthening the EU powers (institutions, agencies, budget); • but a strong pro-European majority (‘super-grand’ coalition) stays on.
  4. 4. 4 Possible coalitions (%) Old EP New EP Difference EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.5 -8.7 EPP + S&D 61.4 53.1 -8.2 Old EP New EP Difference EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 16.2 +7.9 ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 22.5 +6.7 (ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 29.6 +9.2 PRO ANTI
  5. 5. 5 Possible coalitions (%) Centre-right Centre-left Old EP New EP Difference EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.7 -7.9 EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 45.0 -9.0 Old EP New EP Difference S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 38.7 +1.2 (S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 49.1 +0.7
  6. 6. 6 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Economy • Less budget consolidation • More public spending • Push for tax harmonization? • More regulation of the financial sector
  7. 7. 7 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Employment • More social indicators followed through the European Semester • Push for re-correlation of salaries with inflation rather than productivity • Regulations more labour-oriented (working time and work conditions)
  8. 8. 8 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Trade and internal market • Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP • More questioning of the strengthening of internal market for services
  9. 9. 9 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Energy • Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role • Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority likely positive • Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure
  10. 10. 10 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Environment • Step-by-step approach towards C02 reduction and climate targets? • Re-industrialization? Uncertain
  11. 11. 11 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Civil liberties • More barriers to migration?
  12. 12. Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder doru@votewatcheurope.eu www.votewatch.eu @VoteWatchEurope /VoteWatchEurope

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