Climate Change (By Anumita)

Climate, energy and the imperatives of equity and growth Centre for Science and Environment April 20, 2007

Responsibility for CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change Source; Jim Hansen

Source; Bill Rees

Carbon emissions are linked to growth. Climate negotiations are negotiations about the economy.
Growth in GDP versus growth in SO2 and CO2 in the Netherlands

Energy efficiency alone is not the answer
Global carbon emissions under an energy efficient fossil fuel scenario (gtC per year)

1. To deal with global warming, action has to be
ecologically effective to prevent climate change,
economically effective, and,
socially just and equitous in sharing action as there is huge disparity in per capita emissions
Equity is a pre-requisite because any agreement that is not seen as fair or just will be a non-agreement.
2. But the Kyoto Protocol only focuses on creating a global carbon market. Nobody knows what will be the impact of this creative carbon accounting. The focus of all industrialised countries so far has been to take on the least cost options, by buying the cheapest ‘emission credits’ from developing countries

Cost of US Emissions Reductions: Domestic action vs Action through Flexmex US domestic action US $125 tc Flexmex with Eastern European countries US $30-50tc Flexmex with developing countries US $14-20 tc When emissions reductions obtained through: Cost of reduction

Sharing a tight budget
IPCC says the world needs to stabilise at 450 ppm to have the least possible impacts.
In this case, cumulative GHG emissions have to be limited to about 600-800 billion tonnes of carbon equivalent between now and the end of the 21st century. And we need to share this budget equitably across the world.
We need to reduce our total emissions by 60 per cent of the current emissions by the end of the 21st century.

Freezing global inequality

Source: ALOK RAWAT 2004, UNEP WORKSHOP ON FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND FUEL EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT AND AUTOMOTIVE CO AUTOMOTIVE CO2 REDUCTION POLICIES REDUCTION POLICIES, OCTOBER 13, 2004, China

1 US citizen =
107 Bangladeshis
134 Bhutanese
19 Indians
269 Nepalese
Climate change will demand cooperation between nations. This will not be possible without a sense of fair play and equity. The South needs to secure its ecological space.

Who should bear the burden?
Historically and currently, per capita emisssions from developed countries are responsible for as much as 80 per cent of CO 2 emissions
“ Common but differentiated responsibility” instead of polluter pays principle

Common but differentiated responsibility Source: UNFCCC 1997, Implementation of the Berlin Mandate, Additional Proposals from Parties. Addendum. 21 79 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 18 82 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 12 88 Relative share of induced temperature increase due to carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 21 79 Relative share of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere in 1990 25 75 Relative share of annual carbon dioxide emissions in 1990 Non-Annex 1 nations (%) Annex 1 nations (%) Relative Shares

Atmosphere is a global common
An equitable arrangement should include....
Per capita entitlements provide the framework for an effective climate regime. Entitlements built on per capita emissions.
Trading allowed only after entitlements have been fixed
Those not using the atmosphere can sell their unused share. This trading system will provide the incentive to move towards zero-emission systems.
We see the rights as a tool to make a transition to clean energy.
A convergence principle towards a just and sustainable norm

Trading must have two key principles:
It must be done in an equitable manner .We must have equitable per capita entitlements and a clear strategy for contraction and convergence. We must set an upper limit for greenhouse gas concentrations.
It must be linked to non-carbon or zero-carbon energy.

The (Cheap) Development Mechanism
The Clean (Cheap) Development Mechanism could cost us the earth
Instead of moving the world out of fossil fuel, CDM could end up subsidising the carbon energy economy, and locking out the non-carbon energy economy;
CDM focuses on the low-hanging fruit, which are all in the fossil fuel sector. Improving energy efficiency has never reduced overall energy consumption. With Kyoto Protocol the world will not be able to reduce its gross carbon emissions below the 1990 levels, which in itself are 2-3 times higher than those considered to be environmentally sustainable

Cheap Deal for India
CDM was designed to help developing countries achieve sustainable development and assist developed countries meet emissions reduction target.
But CDM project are not rooted in national policies and goals. Over 50 % of the CERs sold are to harvest fugitive gases – HFC – 23, and N2O – from industry. (Eg. GCL that produces HCFC 22 and gets rid of HFC 23, a by product – can sell 3 million CERs a year).
Private sector driven. Minimises government’s role
Public utilities – bus service, community projects on renewable energy projects etc rarely qualify
Complicated clause of additionality – whatever government does as a matter of policy does not qualify for CDM – perverse incentive to keep polluting..

Who bears the future costs?
Once low cost options are exhausted in developing countries and only more expensive options are left the very future of CDM and its rationale disappears because then the Developed countries will have no interest in a flexibility mechanism like the CDM.

Climate Change - Effect on developing countries
Developing countries will be twice more vulnerable than developed countries
If CO2 levels double,
Cost to developed countries 1-2% of GDP
Cost to developing countries 2-9% of GDP

Possible Effects on India
The monsoons could be affected, either creating more droughts or floods
Maldives and Bangladesh could be affected by the melting of the polar snow caps, and this would have an indirect effect on India

Vulnerability: Emerging evidence pool in India
Strange local climatic changes noticed in India
Orissa coast in eastern India: 1834 – 1926: average interval of flood – 3.84 years. 1926 – 1955: 10 year frequency; 1961-2000 – flood has become an annual affair.
More districts drought prone. 3 districts in 1950s to 25 districts in 1990s.
Economic disaster: In 30 years average annual loss due to disaster has gone up by 27 times. (Annual property loss due to disaster)
80% of state’s population depend on climate sensitive agriculture and forestry sectors.
Health : 22% of country’s malaria cases. 50% of malaria related deaths

Challenges for the South
Most environmental problems lie in the development paradigm created by the North and which it is spreading to the South . North has to show leadership by changing its ways so that all of us can learn. But global environmental negotiations don't reflect this. The negotiations do not even address the problem of the current development paradigm. Building its scientific capacity: The science based agenda of negotiations such as those on climate change put the developing countries, with limited scientific capacities at a disadvantage. Such an agenda, decided by the science-rich North, is also likely to ignore the environmental concerns of the poor. Building its negotiating capacity so that it participates in the initial rule building

Spot light: China and India

Outlook of CO 2 emission increase from 2000
CO2 emissions from developing countries will increase dramatically.
By 2020-2030, emissions from developing countries will surpass those from developed countries, and in 2100, it will be three times.
What is everyone saying? (Source) DOE (2005) Other Non-AnnexⅠ Brazi l India China AnnexⅠ( Excluding US) US （ Mt-CO2 ） Developing Countries (Non-AnnexⅠ) Developed Countries (AnnexⅠ)

Perspective of world energy demands
On the demand side, rapid increase and continued growth of global energy demand is predicted,
One of the main factors of energy demand is increase of fuel demand in the transport sector.

Transportation is the Fastest Growing CO 2 Emissions Source

Making connection between local and global emissions for effective action Vehicle Climate Change Emission Sources Methane Nitrous Oxide CO 2 CO2 HFC A/C compressor Engine Transmission Black Carbon? Ozone

Secondary Transformations Can Be Subtle But Very Significant! Urban Air Pollution & Global Warming Are Linked
HC + NOx Lead To Regional Ozone But
Also to Background Hemispheric Ozone
• CO Becomes CO2 but Consumes OH
Radicals Along the Way Increasing CH4
Diesel PM Increases PM10 & PM2.5 &
Ultrafine PM But Also Black Carbon

CO2 Is Not The Whole Story Recent evidence indicates Reducing 1 kg of BC is equal To reducing 2.5 tons of CO2

While Europe (& Japan) Lead on CO2, The EU’s Very Weak Diesel Limits Hurt Globally

Tougher Standards in The EU & More Rapid Adoption By Other Countries (i.e., China, India) Could Greatly Improve Trends

Comparison of fleet average GHG emission standards standardized by gCO 2 /km for new light-duty vehicles Source: Feng An, Sauer

Share of CO 2 emissions from transport of different regions as a percent to the total global transport CO 2 emissions* * Reference case only ** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only. Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006

Share of transport CO 2 emissions as a percent to the total CO 2 emissions from oil* in each regions (in %) * Reference case only ** The following graphs are the comparison of US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia only. Source: Computed from the World Energy Outlook 2006

Economic Growth Can Coexist with Clean Air and Low Energy Consumption. Can we de-link heat trapping gases as well?

Can India even begin to see this trend? Delhi: Trend in ambient SO 2 and CO de-linked from economic growth. PM10 stabilised. NOx increasing with growth spurt Source: CSE

Pollution Per-Capita GDP “ The Kuznets Curve” Business As Usual Alternative Path Of Progress The message: Leapfrog Avoid the polluting pathways of others. Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventive

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Climate Change (By Anumita)

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