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India's economic fundamentals have deteriorated in the near term leaving the country with weaker growth. The country is grappling with problems of rising inflation and booming fiscal and current ...
India's economic fundamentals have deteriorated in the near term leaving the country with weaker growth. The country is grappling with problems of rising inflation and booming fiscal and current account deficits. Global macro-economic environment seems equally gloomy. European debt crisis has been escalating with more and more countries finding it difficult to re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties. China's growth has also moderated along with other Asian countries. Against the backdrop of weak global growth and high global commodity prices, the Indian economy has taken a severe beating due to weak domestic political climate. Indian government has failed to reduce the fiscal deficit and to device structural reforms to open supply-side bottlenecks. Rising subsidy bills, slow decision making on behalf of the government due to scandals and back-tracking on reforms due to influence of regional political parties have curtailed the growth potential. Any significant economic reform or any serious effort to curtail the fiscal deficit seems unlikely in the face of general elections due in May 2014.
The weakness in the Indian economy is reflected in the Indian equity market as well. Over the last two years, the equity market has given a negative return of nearly 4% while in the last year, it gave a negative return of nearly 8%. Thus, investment in the equity market has been quite difficult. We expect the market to consolidate in a broad range in the remaining part of the year, giving us the opportunity to accumulate stocks at reasonable prices. Thus, we have attempted to create a model portfolio to generate superior returns over the market. Given the weak domestic and global economic environment, we prefer to keep more than 70% of out portfolio in liquid funds. The funds would be deployed as and when the time will be ripe.
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