Attempting to Predict the Unpredictable

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Humans are... interesting. Here are some unexpected results we've learned from doing split tests on a variety of websites.

Humans are... interesting. Here are some unexpected results we've learned from doing split tests on a variety of websites.

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  • 1. Predicting the future of an Unpredictable Consumer Brian Massey, Conversion Sciences Website Optimizer @bmassey
  • 2. We all do it. We are not very good at it. Here are some of the ways we try to predict the future. Predicting the Future
  • 3. “What has worked in the past will work in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 1
  • 4. Email: Moving from Monthly send to Weekly send doubled revenue.
  • 5. @bmassey Making the Phone Ring A) We Can Help. Call… B) Speak with a Compassionate Rehab Specialist. Call… C) Ready to Start Healing? If So, We Can Help. Call… D) Ready to Stop Lying to Yourself About Addiction? We Can Help. Call...
  • 6. @bmassey Making the Phone Ring A) We Can Help. Call… B) Speak with a Compassionate Rehab Specialist. Call… C) Ready to Start Healing? If So, We Can Help. Call… D) Ready to Stop Lying to Yourself About Addiction? We Can Help. Call... -18% Control +32% +43%
  • 7. “What I like is what will work in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 2
  • 8. Extreme Site Make Over
  • 9. Extreme Site Make Over
  • 10. “What others are doing will work for me in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 3
  • 11. Slider Panels 1 Order Today Ships Tomorrow Bold Outdoor 2 Free Super Saver 3 Leader in Mesh 4
  • 12. Test The Panels Individually
  • 13. Reordering Sliders 1 Order Today Ships Tomorrow Bold Outdoor 2 Free Super Saver 3 Leader in Mesh 4
  • 14. Test The Panels Individually
  • 15. “Because two things happened together, more of one will give us more of the other.” Predicting the Future Method 4
  • 16. Those who use site search convert at higher rates. Therefore, if we get more people to search, we will sell more.
  • 17. Bigger Search Box
  • 18. 22
  • 19. “Everyone reacts the same way.” Predicting the Future Method 5
  • 20. “Experimenting will tell me what will work in the future.” Predicting the Future Method 6
  • 21. University Program
  • 22. Why are people clicking on this form field, but not on the others?
  • 23. Hypothesis: They want to see the programs offered.
  • 24. 20% Increase In Form Fills We added this information to the content and tested.
  • 25. Hypotheses  What you like may predict the future  What others are doing may predict the future  What you have been doing may predict the future  What everyone is doing may predict the future  One thing may predict the future for another thing.
  • 26. @bmassey Don’t Think. Know. Training Conversion Catalyst Consulting PPC Landing Page Optimization Video that Converts Analytics Visitor Personas Feared by Competitors Across the Internet
  • 27. 32 PREPARED BY CONVERSION SCIENCES Brian Massey Joel Harvey (888) 961-6604 www.conversionsciences.com 8650 Spicewood Springs Rd. #145-601 Austin, TX 78759