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IRCBS 2010 FP Presentation Exp

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Rare Coins as investments

Rare Coins as investments

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  • 1.
  • 2. Advising the Very Affluent - Beyond Equities
    Basics for the Financial Planning Professional
    and High Net Worth Investors
  • 3. Rare US Coins: Background
    The US rare coin market has a long history of growth and stability. In the last two decades the advent of independent coin certification and electronic trading networks has led to increased demand and liquidity.
  • 4. Rare US Coins: Background
    Annual Revenue: $2B+ and increasing
    Collector/Investor Base: Estimated 4M - 7M by American Numismatic Association (ANA)
    Dealers: approximately 20,000+ dealers in the US and Canada
    Supply: 16M+ coins certified for grade and authenticity
    Market Value: $20B+ certified coins, $40B including non-certified coins
    Certification: Two major independent services - Professional Coin Grading Services (PCGS) (NASDAQ: CLCT) and Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC). In addition there are a total of 11 secondary services.
    Data Base: U.S. rare coins have the largest available data base for pricing, mintage and certification of any collectible.
    Electronic Trading Networks: Two major independents - Certified Coin Exchange (CCE) and Certified CoinNet (CCN)
    Dealer Bids: On an average day, CCE has $708M in open dealer bids
    As of January 2008
  • 5. Rare US Coins: Background
    Strong Historic Returns –According to independent studies, in 1970 had you invested in DJIA stocks and rare coins, your rare coins’ return would have exceeded the Dow by more than 400%.
    Reduced Risk Plus Inflation Protection - Including certified rare US coins in a well-diversified investment portfolio has been demonstrated to both reduce risk and provide a degree of protection against inflation.
    Limited Supply - It is generally accepted that 95% of original mintages were lost due to melting or mishandling. With the vast majority of surviving coins now having been certified, it is estimated that fewer than 7M true investment grade rare US coins exist.
    Highly Liquid - Unlike real estate, art and most other tangible assets, certified rare US coins are highly liquid. This liquidity is provided by a vast network of dealers, national electronic exchanges and millions of collectors/investors.
  • 6. “A Spare Tire for Your Financial Vehicles…Just in Case ”
  • 7. Numbers to Think About: Part I
    From 1983 to 2000 the U.S. stock market went from 1000 Dow to 11542 Dow. That is a 1054%stock market index increase in 17 years.
    It took30 months for the market to bottom at 7591 on October 2002 resulting in a 38% loss.
  • 8. DJIA 1980– 2000
    17 year Increase
  • 9. A Question for Investors
    In the period from 1986 to 2002 which was the most popular asset recommended to investors?
    1. The Stock Market
    2. Gold Bullion
    3. Real Estate
    Answer: The Stock Market
  • 10. A Question for Investors
    Was there a period from 1986 to 2002 where you would have been much better off outof the stock market?
    How about October 1987? The stock market lost 36% in 7 monthsand did not recover until late 1989
  • 11. DJIA 1980– 2000
    Crash of 1987
    36% loss in
    seven months
  • 12. Numbers to Think About: Part II
    From October 2002 to October 2007 the U.S. stock market went from 7591 Dow to 13930 Dow. That is a 83.50%stock market index increase in 5 years.
    It took 1 yearfor the market to bottom at 6544 on November 2009 resulting in a 48% loss.
    This decline wiped out all the stock market gains that were made in the last6 years.
  • 13. DJIA 2000– November 2008
    6 year market rise
    30 month decline
    1 year decline
    48% loss
  • 14. A Question for Investors
    In the period from 2002 to 2009 which was the most popular asset recommended to investors?
    1. The Stock Market
    2. Gold Bullion
    3. Real Estate
    Answer: The Stock Market
  • 15. A Question for Investors
    Was there a period from 2002 to 2009 where you would have been much better off outof the stock market?
    How about October 2008? The stock market lost 48% in the following 12 months.
  • 16. Numbers to Think About: Part III
    During the period March 1924 to March 1993, $500 billionwas invested in the U.S. stock market over this span of 69 years.
    From March 1993 to March 2003, over $500 billionwas invested in the U.S. stock market over this period of 10 years.
    From November 10-12, 2008, The stock market has lost about $1 trillionover those three days, according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, which reflects the value of nearly all U.S. stocks.
  • 17. Numbers to Think About: Part IV
    The National Debt has ballooned from $1 trillionto$12.3 trillionfrom 1979 to 2010.
    (*as of January 2010)
  • 18. Two Absolutely True Statements
    All markets willeventually correct. They go up and down.
    Inflationwillreturn. It also goes up and down.
  • 19. However, what we don’t knowis:
    When
    or
    How Much
  • 20. A Financial “Spare Tire”
    From 1979 to 1981, beginning with the last two years of the Carter presidency that experienced double digit inflation , this asset increased in value by 700% in 18 months!!! Equities lost about 42%over the same period.
  • 21. A Financial “Spare Tire”
    From 1987 to 1989, after the October ‘87 Market Crash, when equities lost from30%to60%in about 3 days, this asset increased by267% in the next 18 months!!!
  • 22. Asset Allocation Model Using Rare U.S. Coins
    Hypothetical investment results using rare U.S. coins in a diversified portfolio during the inflationary period of 1979-1981
  • 23. $100 = Wealth
    Last period of high inflation was 1979-1981 beginning the last two years of the Carter administration. Average inflation rate was 13.8% per year
    Equities lost average of 7.5% per year
    U.S. National Debt: $1 trillion
    During this same period, rare U.S. coins increased an average of 700%
  • 24. $100 = Wealth
    $95 Equities:
    Mutual Funds,
    Stocks, CDs,
    Real Estate,
    Treasury Bills,
    Bonds
    $5 Rare Coins
  • 25. $100 = Wealth
    $95 Equities
    -15%investment loss
    -27.6% inflation loss
    -42.6% total loss
    $95 worth $54.53
    $5 Rare Coins
    700% increase
    -27.6%inflation loss
    $5 worth $38.62
    Add to $54.53 Equity Portfolio value
    TOTAL: $93.15
  • 26. $100 = Wealth
    $90 Equities
    -15%investment loss
    -27.6% inflation loss
    -42.6% total loss
    $90 worth $51.66
    $10 Rare Coins
    700% increase
    -27.6%inflation loss
    $10 worth $72.76
    Add $51.66 Equity Portfolio value
    TOTAL:$124.42
  • 27. $100 = Wealth
    $85 Equities
    -15% investment loss
    -27.6% inflation loss
    -42.6% total loss
    $85 worth $48.79
    $15 Rare Coins
    700% increase
    -27.6%inflation loss
    $15 worth $109.14
    Add $48.79 Equity Portfolio value
    TOTAL:$157.93
  • 28. $100 = Wealth
    If you did notdiversify your portfolio
    $100 Equities
    -15% investment loss
    -27.6% inflation loss
    -42.6% total loss
    $100 worth$57.40
  • 29. Present Financial Situation
    2010 U.S. National Debt: $12.2 trillion
    Inflation: currently low
    Rare coin prices: currently low
    What is next for these cycles???
    *As of 1/10/2010. Source: brillig.com
  • 30. Rare Coin Market Performance
  • 31. Rare Coin Investment Parameters
    U.S. Coin
    Pre-1934 (gold coins)
    Pre-1955 (copper, nickel and silver coins)
    Condition (Grade) MS/PF63 to MS/PR68
    Certified by NGC or PCGS
    NGC- Numismatic Guaranty Corporation
    PCGS- Professional Coin Grading Service
    Must contain ALL elements above
  • 32. Rare Coin Market Performance
    Measurement Parameters
    Numismedia Wholesale Price Index
    Coin Universe Prices
    Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter (CCDn) Price
    Coin Dealer Newsletter (CDN) Prices
    “Trends” Index (published in Coin World)
    Certified Coin Exchange Prices
  • 33. Rare Coin Market Performance
    Sector Performance
    Generic ( most common) Coins
    Rarities
    Series ($20 Gold, $10 Gold, Morgan Dollars)
    Metal Type (gold, copper, nickel, silver)
    Overall market
  • 34. Historical Market Indices – Coin Universe
  • 35. Historical Market Indices – Nachbar 100
  • 36. Historical Market Indices – Brown Study, Univ. of Chicago
    “Over the last 62 years, rare coins offered an average annual arithmetic mean return of 10.46 percent and an average annual geometric mean return of 9.83 percent, with a standard deviation of 12.3 percent. This compares quite favorably against growth stocks over this same 62-year period...” Robert A. Brown, Ph.D., CFA Journal of Financial Planning
  • 37. Historical Market Indices –Brown Study, Univ. of Chicago
  • 38. Historical Market Indices – Brown Study, Univ. of Chicago
  • 39. Rare US Coin returns are negatively correlated with Bills and Bonds
    On a year-to-year basis, Rare US Coin returns have low correlations with equities. However, on a 10-year moving average basis they have a strong inverse relationship:
    Correlation with DJIA from 1941-2005 was -0.684
    Correlation with S&P 500 from 1970-2005 was -0.655
    Historical Market Indices – Brown Study, Univ. of Chicago
  • 40. Historical Market Indices – Brown Study, Univ. of Chicago
  • 41. Historical Market Indices –Lombra Study, Penn State University
    In a recent independent study conducted at Penn State University on U.S. rare coins as investments, among major findings were:
    “Considered individually, stocks and rare U.S. coins had the highest rates of returns over the past 25 years”
    “The returns on Treasury bonds and rare U.S. coins are inversely related over the entire 25-year period. The returns on coins are more highly correlated with inflation than any other asset class, including gold bullion.Taken together, this evidence suggests the potential for considerable gains from appropriate diversification.”
    Source: L.A. Research, Penn State University, 2004
  • 42. Historical Market Indices –Lombra Study, Penn State University
    A further significant finding in this study was the following:
    “Utilizing the tools of modern portfolio analysis, an extensive analysis of efficient portfolios was conducted for a wide variety of weighting schemes, and for various sub-periods over the last quarter century. The results indicate that including a modest amount of rare U.S. coins within an existing portfolio could improve investment performance by either increasing returns without significantly increasing risk or by reducing risk without adversely affecting returns significantly.”
    Raymond Lombra, Ph.D.
    Professor of Economics
    Penn State University
    Source: L.A. Research, Penn State University, 2004
  • 43. G
    H
    B
    I
    J
    C
    D
    A
    E
    F
    Historical Market Indices – Lombra Study, Penn State University
  • 44. Historical Market Indices – Lombra Study, Penn State University
    Long Term Performance
    1979– 2003, Average Annual % Returns
    Stocks 13.7%
    Treasury Bonds 10.9%
    Gold Bullion 3.9%
    Coins (all types- MS65) 14.1%
    Coins (all types -MS63-65) 11.8%
    Source: L.A. Research, Penn State University, 2004
  • 45. Historical Market Indices – Ten Year Returns 12/31/2000 to 12/31/2009
  • 46. Historical Market Indices – BMA CoinDex
    $10,000 invested in Gold Bullion Vs Rare U.S. Gold Coins Vs S&P 500 Period: Jan 1975- Jan 2004
    Source: Coin Dealer Newsletter, Standard and Poor’s, World Gold Council
  • 47. Client Suitability
  • 48. Determining Client Suitability
    Client Investment Objectives:
    a. Growth -suitable
    b. Income - not suitable
    Client Holding Period:
    a. Long Term, 4 -10 year
    b. Short term profits can be taken
    c. Not recommended for periods less than 2 years
  • 49. Determining Client Suitability
    Client Investment Amount:
    a. Should not be more than 5-15% of total assets
    b. Recommended minimum is $US 20,000
    c. Additional amounts can be added in $5,000 increments
    d. Client should be diversified in series and type
  • 50. Tax Considerations- US
    Non-income producing, therefore tax-deferred
    Rare coins can be used in defined benefit pension plans without restriction
    Currently, rare coins are not eligible for use in IRAs or defined contribution plans
    Capital gains tax treatment not presently applied to rare coin investments, however, any losses can be used to offset other investment capital gains
  • 51. Pricing and Data Sources
  • 52. Pricing U.S. Rare Coins
    Price Sources:
    Coin Universe (retail)
    Coin World Trends (retail)
    Numismedia (dealer wholesale)
    gpAnalysis (auction price history)
    Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter (CCDn)
    Coin Dealer Newsletter (CDN)
    Certified Coin Exchange (CCE)
  • 53. Pricing U.S. Rare Coins
    Certification Services:
    Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS)*
    Numismatic Guaranty Corporation (NGC)*
    ANACS
    Independent Coin Grading Company (ICG)
    Dominion Grading Service (DGS)
    *(recommended for investors)
  • 54. Certified Coin Dealer Newsletter
    Published weekly each Friday and received on each Monday by coin dealers
  • 55. The “Redbook”
    The Guide to United States Coins has been published annually since 1947. It is not used as a pricing guide but as a identification source.
  • 56. The “Redbook”
  • 57. Liquidating U.S. Rare Coins
    Wholesale - immediate to 3 days
    Auction
    75 to 90 days for “signature type auctions”
    14 to 28 days for “certified only auctions”
    7-30 days for “internet auctions”
    Consignment for Retail Sale
    Private Sale
    The preferred method is auction for the maximum profit. The least effective method is consignment for retail.
  • 58. Liquidation Methods
    Wholesale: Larger spreads between retail and wholesale. Fast but can be costly.
    Auction: Fees can be negotiated. Preferred method. Auctioneer is paid for results.
    Private Sale: Usually between wholesale and auction. Problem with settlement unless brokered.
  • 59. Auctions: The Basics
  • 60. Rare Coin Auctions: The Big Three
    The 3 major auction houses in rare coins are:
    New York, NY
    Wolfeboro, NH
    Est. 1947
    Dallas, TX Est. 1982
    Irvine, CA Est. 1931
  • 61. Rare Coin Auctions
    Auction is the preferred method of buying and selling coins. There are three types of auction available.
    1. “Signature” sales
    2. “Bullet” sales
    3. Internet sales
  • 62. Rare Coin Auctions: Signature Sale
    “Signature”sales which are conducted 4 to 5 times per year are major auctions which offer all types of material such as U.S. coins (both certified and uncertified), foreign coins, currency, ancient coins and other numismatic material. Catalogs are bound, full-color publications containing photographs of the majority of the coins consigned. The per lot value of the coins vary based on minimums set by each auction house, but in most cases are for high value items priced at $2000 and up.
  • 63. Rare Coin Auctions: Bullet Sale
    “Bullet”sales which are conducted 12 -14 times per year are auctions that offer only certified coins. Due to the certification, the catalogs contain only written descriptions of the consigned coins. The coins in these sales are lowered priced certified coins that do not meet the minimum lot value for signature sales.
  • 64. Auctions: Internet Sale
    “Internet”sales are conducted weekly and offer many coins, both certified and uncertified. The majority of coins sold are those that have been rejected for sale in catalog sales or coins with problems (altered, questionable toning, minor firm certification, etc.) Although there are some firms using the Internet for it’s efficiency, the Internet is more the realm of the untrained bargain-seeker that tends to overpay for less than quality material. It is a wonderful place to sell coins, but definitely not the best for acquisition.
    Professional collectors and dealers prefer the established venue of live auctions to acquire the best material. The large auction houses now have internet bidding available on their live sales, however, internet bidding is closed 24 hours prior to the live auction taking place. The floor bidders take precedent to internet bidders in these cases.
  • 65. Rare Coin Sales: Internet Auction Sites
    Below are listings from an coin auction site on
      
     SUPERB GEM 1911-D $20 GOLD SAINT GAUDENS - NTC MS67! - $0.99 Mar-19 19:50  
    RARE 1915 $20 GOLD SAINT GAUDENS - NTC MS65!   - $2,690.00 Mar-19 19:45 
     RARE 1908 WITH MOTTO $20 GOLD SAINT GAUDENS - NTC MS65!    $0.99 Mar-19 19:40 
     RARE DAHLONEGA GOLD 1846-D Gold $2.50 Quarter Eagle!!Only 19,303 Minted! $1.00 Mar-19 19:36  
    RARE 1855 kellogg $50 Restrike From The Central America  Struck Sept 12, 2001! $1.00 Mar-19 19:35  
    RARE 1805 Capped Bust Right Gold $5.00 Half Eagle.  ONLY 33,183 MINTED!! $1.00 Mar-19 19:34  
    US 24 Coin Certified Gold Collection $20 to $1   - $9,000.00 Mar-19 19:33  
    US 13 Coin Old Gold Collection $20 to $1   - $3,999.00 Mar19 19:33
    This method of acquisition is NOT recommended for investors
  • 66. Auction values are generally not guaranteed. The prices realized can be either higher or lower than estimated based on market conditions and activity. However, some of the larger auction houses will guarantee the items to sell at an agreed upon price between the auction house and the consignor.
    Buying rare coins at auction allows knowledgeable buyers to opportunity to acquire coins at or below wholesale by purchasing undervalued, high grade items that may currently be out of favor. All rare coins have cyclical performance.
    Auctions are best utilized during steadily rising markets for liquidation
    Clients selling rare coins may receive advance payments up to 50% of the estimated value on consignments up to two weeks prior to the date of the actual auction
    Advances are charged a nominal interest rate
    Auction Values
  • 67. Internet Reference Sites: Coin Universe ©
    Most internet rare coin sites are commercial sites, meaning there are items for sale from the firm. Currently, there are no free sites to provide independent prices for rare coins. However, the Coin Universe site offers a price listing for rare coins which are compiled of averaged retail prices from dealer ads, dealer retail listings and prices from current site members inventories.
    It is important to note that the prices listed are averages and that there are no guarantees offered to the buyer. The site serves as a “link” (see arrow) to subscribing dealers who then offer coins to the general public. The buyer must do his own “due diligence” research on the firm, it’s services, policies and pricing formulas.
  • 68. IRCBS: How We Work
  • 69. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents
    We are a private "concierge" firm that provides U.S. rare coin and bullion services to referred clients only. If you visit our website (www.ircbs.com) you have been referred to us directly or you are an existing client. IRCBS does not advertise or solicit business from the general public. 
    Our website is not registered with search engines or traffic generators. The information on this site is educational, informative and can be freely accessed. However, you will notice IRCBS does not have "special deals", "coins of the week" or other such offerings typical in the Internet rare coin market. Our transactions are not “approval” sales. We do not hold inventory and then attempt to sell them to clients.
  • 70. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents
    We provide services to our clients as an independent auction agent to acquire portfolios of high-grade investment material at the best possible prices. We bid for our clients at premier auctions conducted by the nation's top firms in order to help our clients acquire the best quality coins available in the market.
    It is due to this time-intensive process that we restrict our activities to assist qualified, referred investors rather than using the typical mass marketing approach so common in the rare coin marketplace.
  • 71. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents
    Our clients remain anonymous. IRCBS does not disclose the identity of our clients. This provides our clients the privacy of ownership and financial information.
    Using a professional auction agent helps eliminate the client from over- bidding on material, bidding on improper material or emotional reactions to auction activity.
    Auction acquisitions will allow the client to procure rare coins without the typical additional add-on charges that are necessary for large retail firms to cover marketing costs, rent, inventory carrying charges, salaries, benefits etc., resulting in a more favorable purchase price.
    Additional charges for “premium quality” and “rarity” are avoided in auction purchases since these factors are integral in the price.
  • 72. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents
    Advantages for our clients
    No Inventory - We do not carry an inventory of rare coins.  Coins are acquired on an order-by-order basis at major auction venues. 
    No Conflicts of Interest - Because we are not affiliated with or owned by a major coin dealer our only incentive is to provide clients with high quality portfolios of prospectively undervalued coins. We are not an outlet for slow-moving or excess inventory.
    No Direct Sales - We do not telemarket or solicit sales through advertising nor do we work with the general public.  We work exclusively with selected professional investment advisors and wealth managers as well as qualified accredited investors.
    No Speculation - We don’t speculate or otherwise attempt to manipulate the market for our personal gain on the coins we sell.
  • 73. The IRCBS Program: Private Auction Agents
    Clients will receive actual possession of their coin portfolio. This is NOT a coin fund or partnership. IRCBS will provides follow-up service in form of newsletters, e-mail alerts and personal contact.
  • 74. Investors Rare Coin and Bullion Service
    Principal’s Background
    Burnett Marus, RFC is a 37-year veteran of the financial planning industry. He began to specialize in tangible investment portfolios in 1975. Over $17,000,000 in rare coins, rare stamps and art objects were included in clients' investment portfolios, in addition to traditional equity investments, from 1976 to 1980 with his guidance.
    He served as an independent consultant to financial planning community in tangible asset investments from 1980 to 1981 . He conducted seminars on the subject for a number financial organizations as the International Association of Financial Planning, the Canadian Association of Financial Planners, the National Association of Estate Planners and Councils and the American Society of CLUs and ChFCs.
    In 1981 he was selected as president of US Tangible Investment Corporation, one of the nation's largest rare coin investment firms and an affiliate of Heritage Capital Corporation. Mr. Marus successfully expanded company operations into Canada in 1986 and instituted the translation of coin investment materials into French, Spanish and Mandarin.
    Eastern Michigan University also awarded Mr. Marus their prestigious Alumni Achievement Award in 1986. He was named as the advisor to the first limited partnership in rare U.S. coins in Australia in 1991. In 1996, Mr. Marus was named to the “International Who's Who of Professionals".     
  • 75. Investors Rare Coin and Bullion Service
    Principal’s Background
    He recently retired from the National Board of Directors of the International Association of Registered Financial Consultants, after serving as the association’s treasurer. He was honored by the association for serving 12 elected years on the national board. He also served as a member of the Board of Directors of the Dallas-Fort Worth chapter of the International Association for Financial Planning for seven years.
    Among the organizations he has spoken for are: The National Convention of the International Association of Registered Financial Planners; IAFP Chapters in Long Island, Detroit, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Houston, Quad Cities, Birmingham, New Orleans and Pittsburgh; the National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors; the 2001, 2002 ,2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 Financial Advisors Forum;  the British Columbia Chapter and the British Columbia North Chapter of the Canadian Association of Financial Planners; The Iowa Medical Society; Eastern Michigan University; Purdue University and the University of Tulsa.
    His articles have been published in Financial Planning, Trusts and Estates, The Stanger Register, Ticker Magazine, The New York Sun, The Investment Advisor, The Journal of Personal Finance, The Financial Times, The Detroit News, The Montreal Gazette, The Vancouver Sun and The Calgary Sun among others. He currently serves on the Editorial Advisory Board of The Journal of Personal Finance as well as being a contributing columnist. His book, “U.S. Rare Coin Investments: A Practical Guide for Financial Advisors” was published in Fall 2003.
  • 76. Investors Rare Coin and Bullion Service
    Established in 2005 to provide private “concierge” rare coin services to selected advisors and HNW investors.
    Principal has over 37 years experience in the financial services industry, specializing in tangible assets.
    Member of: International Association of Registered Financial Consultants (IARFC), Society of Financial Service Professionals (SFSP), North American Collectibles Association (NACA), American Numismatic Association (ANA), Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association (FLEOA)
  • 77. For Additional Information:
    908 Audelia Road, Suite 200 – 150
    Richardson, Texas 75081
    Phone/Fax: 972-644-6117
    www.ircbs.com