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Ficci frames bk march 2010

  1. 1. Batlivala & Karani CONFERENCE UPDATE 22 March 2010 FICCI Frames 2010: Media Conference Industry upbeat, FICCI KPMG cautious... The mood at the eleventh annual FICCI FRAMES 2010 Media & Entertainment conference was upbeat as most of the media honchos, we spoke to, were confident of the Indian M&E industry clocking a CAGR of over 18% in the next 5 years as compared to the CAGR of 13% pegged by the FICCI KPMG 2010 report. The Indian M&E industry is bullish on few key trends that will define the growth and profitability of this industry going forward. • The ~540 mn mobile user base is a big opportunity lying untapped in India (from the M&E perspective) and while internet will be big business, Indian M&E companies are more bullish on this readily connected mobile population. • All companies want to target the young population of India with various product offerings as this group has the highest propensity to consume paid media. • Digitalisation – The TV industry is hopeful about analog cable going digital but bullish about DTH subscriber additions. • Regional advertising growth will continue to outperform mainstream advertising as major advertisers like FMCG, Auto, consumer durables and Telecom have started focusing on Tier II and Tier III market. • Brand – Developing a strong brand recall with the consumers and the advertisers is of paramount importance. • Regional print will narrow the gap with English print in terms of ad yields. • Consolidation in the Indian M&E space will be the next big thing and will bring profitability. • Government should free pricing cap on pay channels and subscriber pricing caps at the retail level. The film industry expects the Government to fight piracy and the radio industry expects the license period to be extended by another 5 years. The FICCI KPMG report undermines the growth potential of the Indian media industry but we maintain our positive stance that companies with leadership (in viewership or readership or listenership) in their respective area of operation will always be relevant for the advertiser and the investors. Pay revenues will take a while before they become a substantial chunk; however, DTH and now digital cable is the right step towards it. Film piracy will be difficult to curb but reducing it will also help. Radio is the next sunshine sector and Indian Print will be relevant for at least the next ten years. Internet and mobile will be new revenue streams and Gaming in India could be the next game-changer. Rohit Dokania Vikash Mantry +91-22-4031 7275 +91-22-4031 7234
  2. 2. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Day 1 “Why I’m bullish on the advertising industry?” Sir Martin Sorrell (Chief Executive, WPP Group) • WPP is extremely bullish on new media and predicts that Internet will account for 15% of total ad spend in 2010. • There is a shift of economic power to China and India and WPP believes that BRIC countries will see the fastest growth in advertising revenues. • WPP’s revenue in India in the first two month of 2010 was up by 7% on a like-to-like comparison. Mobile revolution is a key phenomenon happening here. • Battleground is going to be ability to locate, incentives and motivation of manpower. Effective disintermediation and communication is important. • Retail landscape is changing and there is need to shift global focus to local organization. Standalone Keynote Nikesh Arora (President, global sales operations and business development, Google Inc) • 1.5 bn worldwide are connected to internet. Approximately 150 bn emails are sent in a day. • In the next 5 years ~40% of content worldwide will be delivered online and hence advertisements will shift to the Internet. How Real is Reality TV? Are Reality shows the new channel drivers? How can one create winning content? Panel:- Siddhartha Basu (CMD, Big Synergy Media Ltd), Patrick Schult (CEO Asia Pacific, Fremantle Media Ltd ), Nitin Vaidya (COO, ZEEL & Business head, Zee TV), Ashvini Yardi (Programming Head, Colors), Andre Freyssen (Managing Partner, CCCP, The Netherlands). • 50% of the 480 channels in India are news channels and 60% of the C&S market is regional focused. • 15% content on TV currently is non-fiction and only 3-5% is reality. • Contrary to the western world, producing reality shows is costlier than fiction. • Reality helps to create buzz but the staple diet of the Indian Diasporas is fiction. • Most of the reality shows are financially unviable. Indian Films Going Global: Can our films really crossover? Panel:- Karan Johar (Film maker), Rahul Bose (Actor), Nandita Das (Actor & film maker),Vijay Singh (CEO, Fox Star Studios India Pvt Ltd), Irrfan Khan (Actor), Franck Priot (Deputy Director, Film France, The French Film Commission) • Films are going overseas but the target audience is limited to Indian Diaspora and only a few of them really make money (or cross over). • Risk is too much versus reward in venturing virgin territory. • Strong financial muscle and distribution strength is needed for cross over. • The more rooted a film is, the more likely it will cross over. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 2
  3. 3. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Innovations & Growth in M&E Sector: Digital and others Panel:- Rajesh Sawhney (President, Reliance Entertainment), Ameya Hete (Executive Director, UFO Moviez India Ltd), Manish Agarwal (CEO, UTV New Media), Arvind Ranganathan (CEO, Real Image), Kosaku Hatanaka (Media and Standards Strategist, Intel Corporation, Japan). • Digitisation is a reality but how fast it can happen and how it can be monetized fully is yet uncertain. • Growth in digital media to come through innovation - Technology driven innovation, Marketing driven innovation and Business model related innovation • Mobile is a now becoming an entertainment device in Tier II and Tier III cities. • Future is bright with innovative technology and affordable content. The Co-relation between Sports & Entertainment Panel:- Sonali Chander (Sports Editor and Anchor, NDTV), Ajay Jadeja (Former Cricketer & TV Anchor), Anuja Chauhan (VP and Executive Creative Director, JWT), Rahul Bose (Actor), Shailendra Singh (Vice Chairman & MD, Percept) • T20 cricket and especially IPL is here to stay. IPL has been the biggest brand innovation of the recent times. • IPL brand will be extended to other sports, for example there could be a football or a hockey league featuring teams with the same name as the current IPL teams. • While Bollywood helped to create the buzz around IPL, the format of the game even attracted women as viewers and expanded the universe. “The Lesson of Cricket: What an American Advertising Guy has to say about the revered sport?” Tim Love (CEO, Asia Pacific India Middle East Africa region, Omnicom group) • Media brings massive social and economic changes in the society. • Media helps in bettering the growth rate of economies. • 4.5 bn people worldwide are connected through mobile and new media and ‘Mobile media’ will be the next big thing to watch out for. Catch ‘em Young: Predicting changing consumer patterns in a young India Panel:- Prahlad Kakar (Ad Film Director & Founder, Genesis Film Production Pvt. Ltd), R Gowthaman (Leader, South Asia, Mindshare), Hemant Sachdev (Joint MD, Consumer and Online, Microsoft India Pvt. Ltd), Ravi Kiran (CEO, South Asia, Starcom Media Vest Group), Monica Tata (VP and DGM - Entertainment Networks, South Asia, Turner International India), Laura Kruger (Consultant & Project Manager New Media,, Jasmeet Gandhi (Head Services, Nokia) • Media consumption has changed amongst the youth in India and the urban youth is consuming media over the mobile or internet. • Kids are fickle audience and it is very difficult to keep them engaged. • Technology is a leading influencer amongst the youth. • Gaming will be big amongst Indian youth in a matter of time. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 3
  4. 4. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 The Animation Industry: Evolving Markets worldwide Panel:- A K Madhavan (CEO, Crest Animation Studios Ltd), Masao Maruyama (Co- founder & Producer, Studio Madhouse, Japan), Shelly Page, Head of International Outreach, DreamWorks), Erica Reijmerink (CCO & Co-founder, KidsPlant BV The Netherlands), , Krishna Desai (Director, Programming, South Asia, Turner International Ltd) • Japan is well ahead in animation market – they have animation content not only for kids but also for adults. 20 full length animation movie are released there. • Successful animation business needs o Constant creative pipeline just like pharma company have molecules. o Strong production pipeline with focus on story, dialogue and color use. o A great distribution relationship and marketing skills. Day 2 Frames thought leader series: Game Changers Ronnie Screwvala (CEO & Founder Chairman, UTV Group) • Mobile will be the next big revenue driver and the share of revenue between telecompanies and content providers will become 50:50 from the current 80:20. • 3G could be a game-changer. • DTH will grow to 30 mn homes by the middle of next year, last mile in cable is still a problem area. • Gaming as an industry in India is not well understood. • Media companies need to build scale in India and at least 3 to 4 companies have to cross the US$ 1 bn mark in revenues for the media and entertainment industry to be taken seriously. • Competition will always remain high and consolidation will be the key for profitability of this industry. • Consumer will not pay for content and 7 out of 10 people in India watch movies on small screen (TV) rather than big screen. • Indian youth should be kept in mind as they will drive the next India. Entertainment industry honchos speak!!! Panel:- Lawrence Bender (Hollywood Producer), Shailesh Rao (Managing Director, Google India), Prashant Panday (CEO, Radio Mirchi), Ajit Balakrishnan (Chairman & Founder, Vubites, Founder & CEO, • Vubites is targeting those advertisers which have an annual ad budget of Rs 0.3-0.5 mn, the market potential is US$ 1 bn. • 3 screens will be very relevant going forward – Mobile, PC and TV. • 20 hours of video is uploaded on every minute and 400 mn people watch Youtube regularly. • Mr. Prashant Pandey feels that the Indian Media & Entertainment industry will grow at a CAGR of 18-20% over the next 5 years and not at 13% as predicted by the FICCI- KPMG 2010 report. • Building a good media Brand is very important and this will eventually lead to profitability. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 4
  5. 5. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Licensing & Merchandising:- Ancillary Revenue Streams in the Animation Sector Panel:- Tapaas Chakravarti (Chairman & CEO, DQ Entertainment International Ltd), Nick Underwood (Commercial Director, Open Mind Production Ltd.), Dulce Lim Chen (VP – Asia Pacific, Cartoon Network Enterprise), Rajiv Sangari (CEO, Spacetoons), Amit Chhabra (VP, Sales & Marketing, Bioworld Merchandising (I) Pvt Ltd), Sandeep Dahiya (VP, Consumer Products and Communications, Viacom 18), Raoul Goff (President CEO, Palace Press Int.USA) • Licensing is integral part of merchandising but licensor and licensee have tussle over these issues o Minimum guarantee or royalty payment. o Single territory verses multi territory deals. o Promotion and distribution of brands and others. • Benefits of licensing o Brings additional revenue stream, limits expansion risk in new market, aids in market and brand expansion + control over original creation. • Alternate revenue stream in animation include o Royalty revenue (in addition to license fee). o Selling directly to retailer. o Content expansion- DVD/VCD, Publishing and education, console games, entertainment and live events. • There is no power brand from India apart from few mythological brands like Hanuman. Hence there is need to create a power brand like Mickey Mouse, Spiderman, Pokemon, Garfield and others. The War for TV News: Defining No 1 in the dizzying newscape Mini Menon (Senior Editor & Head of News Features, Bloomberg UTV),G Krishnan (ED & CEO, TV Today Network), LV Krishnan (CEO, TAM Media Research Pvt Ltd), Ellana Lee (Managing Editor, CNN International Asia Pacific), Barun Das (CEO, Zee News Ltd), Arnab Goswami (Editor-in-chief, Times Now) • News market in India is Rs ~15-16 bn market. • While ratings are important from an advertiser perspective, the most important feature from a viewer perspective is credibility of a news channel. • Although the panel could not reach a consensus on whether English news is more important than Hindi news, they agreed that the regional news will be the next big thing in India. • Leadership is not constant and broadcasting is a like marathon race and one cannot just stop in between. • TAM represents 220 mn viewers out of the 550 mn viewers in India covering 165 towns and cities. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 5
  6. 6. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Mobile & Digital Entertainment – Alternative revenue models in a converged world Panel:- Neeraj Roy (MD & CEO, Hungama Digital Media Entertainment Pvt. Ltd), Vineet Taneja (Director Marketing, Nokia India), Gary Mittelstaedt (Global Content & Policy Manager, Intel corporation), Troy Lobo (Director - Wireless & Interactive Content, Development & Distribution, South Asia, Turner International India Pvt. Ltd), Rolf Schmitz (Marketing Director, Mobile, Dolby Laboratories), Milind Pathak (VP Mobile Content Solutions, Comviva) • Due to limited bandwidth, mobile phones as medium will be pretty strong. • Over 3 mn memory card are sold on monthly basis in India. • Though subscription based model and advertising based models are there, there is need to find ways to push content as user looks for free-me-yum. • Quality content delivery is important before expecting people to pay. Transforming Television: From HDTV, Interactive TV, PVRs, VOD and Beyond Panel:- Nigel Smith (VP & Chief Marketing Officer, NDS), Paritosh Joshi (CEO STAR CJ), Aline Rutily (Founder & CEO, A Bridge Consulting), Ajai Puri (Director & CEO, Bharti Telemedia Ltd), Siddharth Jain (VP and DGM, Distribution & Business Operations, South Asia, Turner International India Pvt. Ltd), Richard Craig - Mc Feely (Director of Sales - Northern Europe, Eastern Europe, Southern Africa and India, Quantel Ltd), Pankaj Kedia (Country Head, Dolby Laboratories) • DTH will lead digitisation wave in India and the convergence will happen faster than the western countries. • Regulation and competition played a key role in development of IPTV market in France. Government/Regulators should see that the tariffs/offers are reasonable. • 3D can help in re-invention of television viewing experience. • Near term changes that will happen are o Multi-room penetration of television and other devices o DVR and HD penetration (will drive major replacement demand) Through the looking glass: Has Indian television matured? Panel:- Anil Wanvari (Founder, CEO & Editor in chief,, Darren Childs (MD, BBC Channels Worldwide), Louise Sams (Executive V and General Counsel, .P Turner Broadcasting System Inc. & President, Turner Broadcasting System International), Caryn Mandabach (CEO, Caryn Mandabach Productions), Lindsey Oliver (Commercial Director, Bloomberg), Patty Geneste (CEO, Absolutely Independent, The Netherlands) • The panel agreed that the Indian television is not maturing but distribution bottlenecks have to be sorted out to provide the next growth trigger for this sector. • China is a very closed and difficult market and hence the focus of foreign companies will be on India. • The GEC space is a very difficult area to be in and only those who have deep pocket can survive. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 6
  7. 7. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Evolving role of Radio in the media mix Panel:- Punitha Arumugam (CEO, Madison India), Sunil Lulla (MD & CEO, Times Now, ET Now, Zoom, Times Global Broadcasting Company Limited), Tarun Katial (CEO, Big92.7 FM), Lynn de Souza (Chairman & CEO, Lintas Media group),Willem Stegeman (CEO, FunX, The Netherlands), L V Krishnan (CEO, TAM Media Research Pvt Ltd) • Radio in India has crossed the 5% share in the ad-pie, worldwide its average share is 8.5%. • Radio’s reach is far better than the reach of print and radio is very cost-effective. • The Indian radio industry has made investments of over Rs 20 bn in the past four years but only one company is making profits and rest all are bleeding. • Interestingly ~70% of radio listenership is in homes led by housewives. • The radio industry wants the Government to increase the license period under Phase II to 15 years from 10 years currently. • Government should also intervene in solving the royalty issue between the IPRS and PPL and the radio industry. • Radio has the willingness to innovate and ~40% of revenues of radio stations come from activations. • However, radio is still treated as an add-on media by the advertisers. Day 3 Where is the profitability of TV industry? Panel:- Jagdish Kumar G (President- South India, Star India Pvt. Ltd), Sunil Lulla (MD & CEO, Times Now, ET Now, Zoom, Times Global Broadcasting Company Limited), Anshuman Misra (MD, Turner International India Pvt. Ltd), KVL Narayan Rao (Group CEO & Executive Director, NDTV Group), Ajay Vidyasagar(COO, Sun Network), Rajesh Kamat (COO, Viacom18 Group & CEO, Colors), Rajesh Jain (Director of Information, Communications & Entertainment, KPMG) • The Indian cable industry collects ~Rs 180 bn at the retail level but only ~Rs 20 bn reaches the broadcasters. • Regulation should be relaxed to free pricing cap on channels and this should be done at the retail level also. • High carriage fee has become an entry barrier in TV broadcasting space. • Innovation and disruptive content by ‘Colors’ helped to grow the Hindi GEC genre. • Colors will expand to related genres, this will help it to de-risk its business model. • IPL is the biggest innovation of recent times. • International subscription revenue is a key to profitability. • Technically there are 230 news channels in India, only 50-60 are news channels in real sense and there is no room for any more channels. • Profitability will come by good content and through milking subscription revenue over DTH and digital cable and concentrating on international subscription revenue. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 7
  8. 8. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Standalone keynote Uday Shankar, (CEO, Star India Pvt. Ltd.) • Subscription revenue will trigger the growth of the TV industry and one of the biggest drivers will be DTH revenues. • Niche content will find its space in the cluttered market. • The TV industry is ailed by low levels of innovation, flawed audience measurement, cracking infrastructure (analog cable) and pressure on profitability. • Market share is very important to maintain profitability. • Working with the Government is very important to build a robust media environment. • According to Star India, TV will become a US$ 9 bn ad market and US$ 5 bn subscription revenue market in the next five years. Film Industry anti-piracy coalition launch Panel:- Dan Glickman (Chairman, Motion Pictures Association of America), Yash Chopra (Chairman, FICCI Entertainment Committee & Yashraj Films Pvt. Ltd), Amit Khanna (Chairman, Reliance Big Entertainment), Harish Dayani (CEO, Moser Baer Entertainment Ltd), Mukesh Bhatt (Film Producer) • Only 8 to 10 movies per year are consumed by a movie-goer in a theatre, the rest of the movies are consumed at home. • 90% of movie piracy is camcorder piracy. • India is among the top 10 countries in Internet piracy. • The number of DVD players in India has grown to 45 mn from 4 mn in just two years. • The DVD/VCD piracy causes a dent of Rs 15 bn to the revenues of the Indian film industry. • One way of fighting piracy could be by taxing blank DVDs higher. Entertaining India in the next decade— What’s entertaining Indian audience in the new decade? A sneak peek into the future from the eyes of the young entertainers! Panel:- Vikram Chandra (CEO, NDTV Convergence & NDTV Networks Plc), Vidya Balan (Actor), Vishal Dadlani (Music Director), Shekhar Ravjiani (Music Director) • Gaming will be big in India. • The relevance of the big screen will become less but it will still exist and the rest of the three screens will become more important – TV, mobile, PC. • Good content will always have takers and more content will be created for niche audience. • Innovation will be the key to survival. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 8
  9. 9. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Valedictory Session Addressed by:- Yash Chopra (Chairman, FICCI Entertainment Committee & Yashraj Films Pvt. Ltd), Smt. Ambika Soni (Hon’ble Minister for Information & Broadcasting, Govt. of India), Marijke A.Van Drunen Little (Consul General, Consulate General of the Kingdom of The Netherlands), Ashok Amritraj (CEO, Hydepark Entertainment), Dr.Amit Mitra (Secretary General, FICCI) • The Government assured that the Phase III radio policy is ready and will be implemented soon. • The Goonda Act will be passed in every state. • Problem of piracy is being dealt with and the government is taking stern steps to curb it. • Levy of service tax is unfair and I&B ministry is pleading the Finance Minister to re- consider its proposal. • The matter on freeing pricing in the cable sector is with the Honorable Supreme Court of India. • The Government has proposed to set-up a training centre for developing competencies in the gaming, VFX area at an outlay of Rs 0.52 bn. • A national heritage mission is being launched and Rs 6.6 bn have been allocated towards it. • The Government will celebrate 100 years of Indian cinema in 2013 and is setting up a National Museum of Indian Cinema in Mumbai. FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 9
  10. 10. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Appendix Media and Entertainment industry Media spend as % of GDP Media spend per capita 1.2 500 1.08 491 450 1.0 0.90 400 0.78 0.80 350 343 0.8 0.75 % of GDP 300 251 US$ 0.6 250 0.41 200 0.4 150 0.2 100 50 27 4 0.0 0 India UK US China Japan World India China UK Japan US Source: Worldwide Media and marketing forecast, Group M, FICCI KPMG 2010 Overall Media and Entertainment industry 2006 2007 2008 2009 CAGR 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E CAGR (Rs bn) (2006-09) (2009-14E) Television 183 211 240 257 12.0 290 336 382 448 522 15.2 Print 139 160 172 175 8.0 190 207 225 246 268 8.9 Film 78 93 104 89 4.5 97 105 115 125 137 8.9 Radio 6 7 8 8 9.1 9 10 12 14 16 16.0 Music 8 7 7 8 0.0 9 10 12 14 17 18.4 Animation 12 15 17 20 18.2 23 28 33 39 47 18.7 Gaming 3 4 7 8 38.1 10 14 20 26 32 32.3 Internet Advertising 2 4 6 8 57.4 11 15 18 23 29 29.6 Outdoor 12 14 16 14 5.5 15 17 19 21 24 12.0 Total Size 443 515 578 586 9.7 653 741 835 956 1091 13.3 Source: KPMG Analysis, Industry discussion, B&K Research Advertising industry 2006 2007 2008 2009 CAGR 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E CAGR (Rs bn) (2006-09) (2009-14E) Television 61 71 83 88 13.0 99 113 133 155 182 15.6 Print 85 100 108 103 6.6 114 127 142 158 176 11.4 Radio 6 7 8 8 9.1 9 10 12 14 16 16.0 Internet advertising 2 4 6 8 57.4 11 15 18 23 29 29.6 Outdoor 12 14 16 14 5.4 15 17 19 21 24 12.0 Total Size 166 196 221 220 10.0 247 281 323 371 427 14.1 Source: KPMG Analysis, Industry discussion, B&K Research FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 10
  11. 11. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Overall advertising spending by category in Media and Entertainment space Advertising spend by category 2009 Estimated (Adex) FMCG 31 Education 13 Telecom 9 Services 8 Auto 7 Financial services 5 Durable 4 Retail 3 Real estate 3 Corporate 3 Tourism 2 Others 2 Entertainment 2 Election 2 Apparel 2 Miscellaneous 1 Internet 1 Infotech 1 Airlines 1 Total 100 Television industry Estimated television households (in mn) (mn) 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Analogue cable 70 69 68 63 59 56 55 Digital cable 2 4 10 19 27 35 40 DTH 10 16 24 30 35 39 43 IPTV 0 4 0 1 2 2 3 Total 82 93 102 113 123 132 141 Top ten advertisers in TV Total active channels on TV (%) share 2008 2009 2008 2009 Food and Beverage 13 14 Hindi 58 63 Personal Care/Personal Hygiene 9 11 Regional 114 135 Services 6 6 English 41 44 Telecom/Internet Service Providers 6 5 Hair Care 5 5 Others 176 219 Auto 4 4 Total 389 461 Banking/Finance/Investment 4 4 Personal accessories 4 4 Personal healthcare 3 3 Household products 3 3 Total 57 59 Source: TAM Adex, FICCI KPMG 2010, B&K Research for all above tables FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 11
  12. 12. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Print industry Reach versus monetization of English and Hindi newspaper Category Reach Monetisation (mn) Rs/person English 38 1,266 Hindi 457 130 Source: IRS 2009 R2, KPMG analysis, B&K Research Share of the top ten advertisers in print in 2009 Category % Share Education 15 Services 12 Banking/Finance/Investment 9 Auto 7 Retail 6 Durables 4 Personal accessories 4 Personal healthcare 3 Corporate/Brand image 2 Textile/Clothing 2 Total 64 Source: Exchange4media, Adex 2009 Radio industry Top advertisers in radio (%) 2006 2008 2009 Cellular phone services 3.0 7.8 7.0 Independent retailer 3.0 7.0 6.3 New licenses in Phase 3 – 4.3 5.9 TV channel promotion 11.0 8.9 5.8 Real estate 7.0 5.8 3.8 Jewellery 3.0 2.5 2.8 Education institutions – 1.4 2.6 Election campaign – 0.6 2.3 Insurance – 2.2 2.3 Pan masala/Zarda/Gutka – 1.3 2.3 Source: TAM Adex, FICCI KPMG 2010, B&K Research FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 12
  13. 13. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 Film industry Size of the Indian Film industry (Rs bn) 2006 2007 2008 2009 CAGR 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E CAGR (2006-09) (2009-14E) Domestic theatrical 62 72 80 69 3.3 73 79 86 93 101 8.0 Overseas theatrical 6 9 10 7 6.1 7 8 9 9 10 8.2 Home video 3 3 4 4 14.0 5 5 6 7 7 11.5 C&S rights 5 6 7 6 8.0 7 8 9 10 11 12.6 Ancillary revenue 3 3 4 4 11.9 4 5 5 6 7 15.2 Total 78 93 104 89 4.6 96 105 115 125 137 8.9 Source: FICCI KPMG 2010, B&K Research FICCI - MEDIA CONFERENCE 13
  14. 14. B&K RESEARCH MARCH 2010 B&K Securities is the trading name of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. B&K Investment Ratings: 1. BUY: Potential upside of > +25% (absolute returns) 2. OUTPERFORMER: 0 to +25% 3. UNDERPERFORMER: 0 to -25% 4. SELL: Potential downside of < -25% (absolute returns) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, print, publishing, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the permission of Batlivala & Karani Securities India Pvt. Ltd. Any unauthorized act in relation to all or any part of the material in this publication may call for appropriate statutory proceedings. The information contained herein is confidential and is intended solely for the addressee(s). Any unauthorized access, use, reproduction, disclosure or dissemination is prohibited. This information does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or subscription of or any invitation to offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information and opinions on which this communication is based have been complied or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, correctness and are subject to change without notice. Batlivala & Karani Securities India P Ltd and/ or its clients may have positions in or options on the securities mentioned in this report or any related investments, may effect transactions or may buy, sell or offer to buy or sell such securities or any related investments. Recipient/s should consider this report only for secondary market investments and as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The information enclosed in the report has not been vetted by the compliance department due to the time sensitivity of the information/document. Some investments discussed in this report have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when the investment is realized. Those losses may equal your original investment. Some investments may not be readily realizable and it may be difficult to sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, risks to which such an investment is exposed. Neither B&K Securities nor any of its affiliates shall assume any legal liability or responsibility for any incorrect, misleading or altered information contained herein. Analyst Declaration: We, Rohit Dokania & Vikash Mantry, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or view expressed in this report. B & K SECURITIES INDIA PRIVATE LTD. Equity Research Division: City Ice Bldg., 298, Ground/1st Floor, Perin Nariman Street, Behind RBI, Fort, Mumbai–400 001, India. Tel.: 91-22-4031 7000, Fax: 91-22-2263 5020/30. Registered Office: Room No. 3/4, 7 Lyons Range, Kolkata-700 001. Tel.: 91-33-2243 7902. B&K Research is also available on Bloomberg <BNKI>, Thomson First Call & Investext.