Dear Fellow Investor: I have entered the asset management business.  My company, ARL Advisers, LLC, is a registered invest...
<ul><li>Key Points </li></ul><ul><li>strategic asset allocation is superior to passive asset allocation </li></ul><ul><li>...
<ul><li>Key Points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ARL Advisers, LLC uses proprietary models to allocate investment funds  toward as...
<ul><li>Key Points </li></ul><ul><li>emphasis on a disciplined strategy </li></ul><ul><li>emphasis on money management </l...
<ul><li>INTRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>goals </li></ul><ul><li>suitability </li></ul><ul><li>universe of assets </li></ul>...
<ul><li>my goal </li></ul><ul><ul><li>is to make you money! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>is to invest for long-term returns ...
<ul><li>suitability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>intended for long-term investors following a disciplined saving and investing pr...
<ul><li>universe of assets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>traditional </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US equity ETF’s </li></ul></ul...
The Strategy Asset allocation  that is strategic, balanced, and targeted click here for next slide
<ul><li>the benefits of  passive  asset allocation are well known* </li></ul><ul><li>asset allocation reduces portfolio vo...
<ul><li>then came 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>when most major assets became highly correlated </li></ul>click here for next slide
A Better Way!!! click here for next slide
<ul><li>Step 1: strategic asset allocation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>tactical or strategic asset allocation  directs funds tow...
<ul><li>Step 2: risk management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>risk management is achieved through a  balanced  portfolio that it i...
<ul><li>Step 3: targeted returns </li></ul><ul><ul><li>each investor has their own level of acceptable risk and their own ...
<ul><li>Portfolio Examples </li></ul><ul><li>these are hypothetical portfolios based upon historical data </li></ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>Conservative Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>Goal: earn return = to long term returns of SP500 with capital preservati...
<ul><li>Conservative Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>since November, 1991, this strategy had a CAGR of 8.09% </li></ul><ul><li...
Conservative Portfolio : equity curve  v.  SP500 click here for next slide
Drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline (in percentage terms) of an investment, and it is measured from the time a retrench...
Conservative Portfolio: drawdown click here for next slide
<ul><li>Conservative Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>consistent returns </li></ul><ul><li>capital preservation </li></ul><ul><...
<ul><li>Broad Market Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>Goal: earn return > SP500 with significantly reduced volatility </li></ul...
<ul><li>Broad Market Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>since November, 2001, this strategy had a CAGR of 15.27% </li></ul><ul><l...
Broad Market Portfolio: equity curve  v.  SP500 click here for next slide
click here for next slide Broad Market Portfolio: drawdown
<ul><li>Broad Market Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>broad exposure to domestic markets at the sector level </li></ul><ul><li>...
<ul><li>Targeted Returns </li></ul><ul><li>With multiple assets available and with various money management schemes, a por...
<ul><li>On the use of models and back testing to “predict” the future: </li></ul><ul><li>past performance does not ensure ...
<ul><li>you cannot understand the present if you don’t know what worked in the past  </li></ul><ul><li>key to superior lon...
<ul><li>ARL Advisers, LLC: the service </li></ul><ul><li>$50,000 minimum investment </li></ul><ul><li>fees based on assets...
<ul><li>Guy M. Lerner, MD  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>managing partner of ARL Advisers, LLC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>licensed...
<ul><li>ARL Advisers, LLC </li></ul><ul><li>asset allocation  that is strategic, balanced, and targeted </li></ul><ul><li>...
<ul><li>Performance </li></ul><ul><li>competitive risk adjusted investment returns </li></ul><ul><li>ability to profit in ...
Past performance is not an indication of future performance and there can be no assurance that ARL Investment Advisers, LL...
THIS DOCUMENT IS INTENDED SOLEY FOR USE BY FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND THEIR CLIENTS OR BONA FIDE PROSPECTS WHO ARE ACCREDITED ...
email :  [email_address] phone: 502 552 0018 mailing address: ARL Advisers, LLC 528 Barberry Lane Louisville, KY 40206 bus...
 
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ARL Advisers presentation

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ARL Advisers presentation

  1. 1. Dear Fellow Investor: I have entered the asset management business. My company, ARL Advisers, LLC, is a registered investment advisory in the State of Kentucky, and I am seeking your business. With all the options out there, why consider what I have to offer? First, I like to think that what I do is unique, but not special. I will not be selling you hype or the latest and greatest. My methodology is driven by my own research and the data, and all investing decisions are objective. Second, my market edge is the ability to use my computer, and I level the playing field even more by investing in markets not companies. Third, I put a great emphasis on risk management as it is one of the few aspects of the markets that I can control. Please take 15 minutes to review my presentation. Here I outline my approach to the markets, and the types of portfolios that we customize for our clients. More importantly, you will understand what I have been doing for the past 10 years of my life, and I hope you will come away with the notion that I am committed to providing you with the best service possible. As you review the material, ask yourself these three questions: 1) what was my financial plan for the past 10 years?; 2) how will I navigate the markets in the next 10 years?; 3) what is my plan to capture new opportunities and reduce risks in the future? I don’t have a crystal ball nor do I need one. However, I do have a plan and a methodology that should capture the major themes. My emphasis is on a disciplined strategy. In essence, I am offering highly stylized, institutional quality portfolios but without the churn of excessive trading and without the high fees. I look forward to talking to you soon, and thank you for your time. Guy “ See why we are different.” [email_address] click here for next slide
  2. 2. <ul><li>Key Points </li></ul><ul><li>strategic asset allocation is superior to passive asset allocation </li></ul><ul><li>strategic asset allocation produces consistent returns while protecting against losses </li></ul><ul><li>ARL Advisers, LLC is replicating a strategy that is commonly employed by major hedge funds and endowments </li></ul>click here for next slide
  3. 3. <ul><li>Key Points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ARL Advisers, LLC uses proprietary models to allocate investment funds toward asset classes with the highest potential for appreciation and away from asset classes with greater potential for loss </li></ul></ul><ul><li>funds are allocated across a breadth of alternative asset classes – you are not limited to stocks and bonds </li></ul><ul><li>all models are quantitatively derived from fundamental and technical inputs </li></ul>click here for next slide
  4. 4. <ul><li>Key Points </li></ul><ul><li>emphasis on a disciplined strategy </li></ul><ul><li>emphasis on money management </li></ul><ul><li>emphasis on risk management </li></ul><ul><li>emphasis on investing not trading </li></ul>click here for next slide
  5. 5. <ul><li>INTRODUCTION </li></ul><ul><li>goals </li></ul><ul><li>suitability </li></ul><ul><li>universe of assets </li></ul>click here for next slide
  6. 6. <ul><li>my goal </li></ul><ul><ul><li>is to make you money! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>is to invest for long-term returns while managing risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>is to outperform the broad stock markets over the full market cycle (peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough) with less risk than experienced by passive approaches </li></ul></ul>click here for next slide
  7. 7. <ul><li>suitability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>intended for long-term investors following a disciplined saving and investing program </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>individual investors </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>institutional investors </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>investors seeking growth of income and capital preservation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>tax deferred or taxable accounts </li></ul></ul></ul>click here for next slide
  8. 8. <ul><li>universe of assets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>traditional </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>US equity ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Bond ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sector ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>non-traditional </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Foreign developed equity ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Foreign emerging market equity ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>International Bond ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>REIT ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Commodity ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dollar/ currency ETF’s </li></ul></ul></ul>click here for next slide
  9. 9. The Strategy Asset allocation that is strategic, balanced, and targeted click here for next slide
  10. 10. <ul><li>the benefits of passive asset allocation are well known* </li></ul><ul><li>asset allocation reduces portfolio volatility without sacrificing returns </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ability to profit in any economic environment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>*Gibson, Roger C., Asset Allocation: 4 th Edition , (2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Darst, David H., The Art of Asset Allocation: Principles and Investment Strategies For Any Market , Second Edition, (2008) </li></ul><ul><li>Ferri, Richard A., All About Asset Allocation , (2005) </li></ul><ul><li>Bernstein, William, The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How To Build Your Portfolio To Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk , (2000) </li></ul><ul><li>Swensen, David, Unconventional Success, A Fundamental Approach To Personal Investment , (2005) </li></ul><ul><li>Dalio, Ray, “Engineering Targeted Returns and Risk”, (2005) </li></ul><ul><li>Merriman-Cohen, Jeff, “The Perfect Portfolio”, (2003) </li></ul>click here for next slide
  11. 11. <ul><li>then came 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>when most major assets became highly correlated </li></ul>click here for next slide
  12. 12. A Better Way!!! click here for next slide
  13. 13. <ul><li>Step 1: strategic asset allocation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>tactical or strategic asset allocation directs funds toward asset classes with the highest potential for appreciation and away from asset classes with greater potential for loss </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>proprietary, quantitative models are utilized to generate buy and sell signals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>models utilize fundamental and technical inputs </li></ul></ul></ul>click here for next slide
  14. 14. <ul><li>Step 2: risk management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>risk management is achieved through a balanced portfolio that it is constructed from diversified, non-correlated assets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>the diversified, non-correlated assets and money management strategy will seek to mitigate risk without decreasing returns </li></ul></ul>click here for next slide
  15. 15. <ul><li>Step 3: targeted returns </li></ul><ul><ul><li>each investor has their own level of acceptable risk and their own expectations for returns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>through the selection of different assets and the use of a money management strategy, the return/ risk level is targeted for each investor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>level of return correlates with level of risk </li></ul></ul>click here for next slide
  16. 16. <ul><li>Portfolio Examples </li></ul><ul><li>these are hypothetical portfolios based upon historical data </li></ul><ul><li>commissions , trading slippage, and taxes are not considered </li></ul><ul><li>for back testing purposes, portfolios may use index data </li></ul>click here for next slide
  17. 17. <ul><li>Conservative Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>Goal: earn return = to long term returns of SP500 with capital preservation </li></ul><ul><li>Assets: SP500, Bonds, Utilities, Gold </li></ul><ul><li>Allocation: SP500(25%), Bonds (30%), Gold (20%), Utilities (25%) </li></ul><ul><li>Money Management: No rebalancing, go to cash if asset on sell signal </li></ul><ul><li>When in cash, money earns interest at commercial paper rate </li></ul>click here for next slide
  18. 18. <ul><li>Conservative Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>since November, 1991, this strategy had a CAGR of 8.09% </li></ul><ul><li>$100,000 becomes $453,208 </li></ul><ul><li>the maximum drawdown (loss) was 8.34% </li></ul><ul><li>the strategy averaged 6 round trip trades per year </li></ul><ul><li>the strategy was invested 100% only 25% of the time </li></ul><ul><li>the strategy had only 1 or no investment position 33% of the time </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>click here for next slide
  19. 19. Conservative Portfolio : equity curve v. SP500 click here for next slide
  20. 20. Drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline (in percentage terms) of an investment, and it is measured from the time a retrenchment begins to when a new high is reached.  Drawdown is a measure of risk.
  21. 21. Conservative Portfolio: drawdown click here for next slide
  22. 22. <ul><li>Conservative Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>consistent returns </li></ul><ul><li>capital preservation </li></ul><ul><li>low volatility </li></ul><ul><li>periods of high cash </li></ul><ul><li>minimal churning </li></ul>click here for next slide
  23. 23. <ul><li>Broad Market Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>Goal: earn return > SP500 with significantly reduced volatility </li></ul><ul><li>Assets: SP500 sector ETF’s, REITs, Foreign Developed, Emerging Market, Treasury Bonds </li></ul><ul><li>Allocation: based upon # of sectors/ assets on buy signal </li></ul><ul><li>Money Management: rebalance weekly if new buy signals </li></ul>click here for next slide
  24. 24. <ul><li>Broad Market Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>since November, 2001, this strategy had a CAGR of 15.27% </li></ul><ul><li>$100,000 becomes $430,312 </li></ul><ul><li>the maximum drawdown (loss) was 10.58% </li></ul><ul><li>the strategy averaged <50 round trip trades per year </li></ul><ul><li>the strategy had > 75% of its funds invested 56% of the time </li></ul><ul><li>the strategy was in 100% cash 26% of the time </li></ul>click here for next slide
  25. 25. Broad Market Portfolio: equity curve v. SP500 click here for next slide
  26. 26. click here for next slide Broad Market Portfolio: drawdown
  27. 27. <ul><li>Broad Market Portfolio </li></ul><ul><li>broad exposure to domestic markets at the sector level </li></ul><ul><li>exposure to emerging markets and developed foreign markets </li></ul><ul><li>diversified </li></ul><ul><li>bond exposure in times of market duress </li></ul><ul><li>superior reward to risk </li></ul><ul><li>minimal churning </li></ul>click here for next slide
  28. 28. <ul><li>Targeted Returns </li></ul><ul><li>With multiple assets available and with various money management schemes, a portfolio can be designed to suit your needs </li></ul><ul><li>Portfolios designed from conservative to aggressive </li></ul><ul><li>Portfolios designed to be long and short the markets </li></ul><ul><li>Portfolios designed to have high or low cash levels </li></ul>click here for next slide
  29. 29. <ul><li>On the use of models and back testing to “predict” the future: </li></ul><ul><li>past performance does not ensure future results </li></ul><ul><li>there is no assurance that ARL Advisers, LLC will achieve its investment objectives </li></ul><ul><li>however…. </li></ul>click here for next slide
  30. 30. <ul><li>you cannot understand the present if you don’t know what worked in the past </li></ul><ul><li>key to superior long-term returns is to take investment opportunities when the evidence suggests high return/risk tradeoffs  on average , and to avoid situations when the evidence suggests low return/risk tradeoffs  on average </li></ul><ul><li>back testing puts an emphasis on a disciplined strategy and ensures the conviction to execute the strategy </li></ul>click here for next slide
  31. 31. <ul><li>ARL Advisers, LLC: the service </li></ul><ul><li>$50,000 minimum investment </li></ul><ul><li>fees based on assets under management </li></ul><ul><li>all funds held by 3 rd party custodian </li></ul><ul><li>daily access to account via internet </li></ul><ul><li>monthly statements </li></ul><ul><li>quarterly reports </li></ul>click here for next slide
  32. 32. <ul><li>Guy M. Lerner, MD </li></ul><ul><ul><li>managing partner of ARL Advisers, LLC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>licensed investment adviser, Series 65, 2007 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>founder TheTechnicalTake blog, 2004 to present </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>featured columnist with RealMoney.com and TheStreet.com, 2004 to 2006 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>routinely published in some of the most widely read financial publications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>marquee speaker at financial seminars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>for 20 years, has practiced as a pediatric anesthesiologist in some of the top universities and hospitals in the country </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bachelor of Arts in Literature, University of Pennsylvania, 1981 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Doctor of Medicine, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, 1986 </li></ul></ul>click here for next slide
  33. 33. <ul><li>ARL Advisers, LLC </li></ul><ul><li>asset allocation that is strategic, balanced, and targeted </li></ul><ul><li>portfolio diversification through innovative strategies </li></ul><ul><li>independent investment research </li></ul><ul><li>discipline and conviction </li></ul><ul><li>integrity </li></ul><ul><li>leads to….. </li></ul>click here for next slide
  34. 34. <ul><li>Performance </li></ul><ul><li>competitive risk adjusted investment returns </li></ul><ul><li>ability to profit in any economic environment </li></ul><ul><li>reduced portfolio volatility </li></ul>click here for next slide
  35. 35. Past performance is not an indication of future performance and there can be no assurance that ARL Investment Advisers, LLC will meet its investment objectives. The information contained in this presentation is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in ARL Advisers LLC. Any such offer or solicitation can be made only be means of a confidential private offering memorandum and only in those jurisdictions where permitted by law. click here for next slide
  36. 36. THIS DOCUMENT IS INTENDED SOLEY FOR USE BY FINANCIAL ADVISORS AND THEIR CLIENTS OR BONA FIDE PROSPECTS WHO ARE ACCREDITED INVESTORS. THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR DISTRIBUTED, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, TO ANY OTHER PERSON NOR MAY IT BE USED IN PUBLIC SEMINARS, NEWSLETTERS OR ADVERTISEMENTS. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ALL DATA CONTAINED HEREIN HAS BEEN OBTAINED FROM RELIABLE SOURCES, HOWEVER ARL ADVISERS, LLC CANNOT BE REPONSIBLE FOR ERRORS AND OMISSIONS FROM SUCH SOURCES. THIS DOCUMENT IS NEITHER AN OFFER TO SELL NOR A SOLICITAION OF AN OFFER TO BUY UNITS OF LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTERESTS IN THE ARL ADVISERS, LLC. AN OFFER OF SUCH INTEREST CAN BE MADE ONLY BY MEANS OF THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM. YOU AND YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION PERMITS YOU TO PARTICIPATE IN ARL ADVISERS, LLC. YOU SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RISKS IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS AND OF INVESTING WITH ARL ADVISERS, LLC THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDA OF THE FUNDS CONTAIN A DESCRIPTION OF THE PRINCIPAL RISK FACTORS, EACH EXPENSE TO BE CHARGED TO THE FUNDS AND A STATEMENT OF THE AMOUNT, AS A PERCENTAGE RETURN AND DOLLAR AMOUNT, NECESSARY TO BREAK-EVEN (THAT IS, TO RECOVER THE AMOUNT OF YOUR INITIAL INVESTMENT). PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS WILL RECEIVE A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT WHEN THEY ARE SOLICITED TO INVEST WITH ARL ADVISERS, LLC AND THAT CERTAIN RISK FACTORS BE HIGHLIGHTED. THEREFORE, YOU SHOULD ASK YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR THE GENERAL PARTNER FOR A COPY OF THE CONFIDENTIAL OFFERING MEMORANDUM AND STUDY IT CAREFULLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER SUCH AN INVSTMENT IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. click here for next slide
  37. 37. email : [email_address] phone: 502 552 0018 mailing address: ARL Advisers, LLC 528 Barberry Lane Louisville, KY 40206 business hours: Monday – Friday, 8 a.m.  to 5:00 p.m.  EST websites: www.arladvisers.com www.thetechnicaltake.com
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