Polar Political Economy, Climate Change, and the Arctic
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Polar Political Economy, Climate Change, and the Arctic

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A layman's perspective on the emerging polar political economy and how climate change in the Arctic will be a driving factor in the development of polar politics and economic change.

A layman's perspective on the emerging polar political economy and how climate change in the Arctic will be a driving factor in the development of polar politics and economic change.

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  • 1. 2013 Polar Political Economy Climate Change and the Arctic Gordon M. Groat Polar Political Economics 1/1/2013
  • 2. DEDICATION To my Friends and Family, With each new avenue to examinethere was a new commitment. I'm keenly aware that time is short for all of us, so I thank you with all my heart for your patience and tolerance as I wandered through these doorways of discovery. The doors have opened to the Arctic on more than one occasion. It is only through the love and genuine caring of my friends and family that I have been able to make my way through life's journey. My lovely wife and daughter bring me joy and happiness each day, and the joy of my own family is translated to my extended family from several countries. I own a debt of gratitude to everybody and I humbly thank you all for your inspiration and humanity. Special thanks to Mom... a source of the most exceptional inspiration and the person who succinctly reminded me... "Just finish it before all the information melts" With love, adoration, and respect, 1
  • 3. TABLE OF CONTENTS Dedication ............................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Table of Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 Part I Climate Change ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 Climate Change from 30,000 Feet ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Isotope Finger Prints ........................................................................................................................................................... 11 The Interconnected Earth ................................................................................................................................................... 11 Governments and Climate Adaptation............................................................................................................................. 12 Science Mash ....................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Atmospheric CO2 Levels ..................................................................................................................................................... 14 Long Term Gases ................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Short Term Gases ................................................................................................................................................................ 18 Ice Core Samples ................................................................................................................................................................. 19 CO2 Projections to the 22nd Century ................................................................................................................................ 21 Subsurface Sedimentary Samples ................................................................................................................................... 24 Rising Sea Surface Temperatures .................................................................................................................................... 24 Ocean Acidification ............................................................................................................................................................. 25 The Great Ocean Conveyor System................................................................................................................................... 28 The Jet Stream Impact........................................................................................................................................................ 30 Yucatan Current & Gulf Stream......................................................................................................................................... 32 COP18 – DOHA UN Report on Permafrost Thawing ...................................................................................................... 34 Permafrost Positive Feedback Loop................................................................................................................................. 35 Planetary Scale Positive Feedback Loop ......................................................................................................................... 36 2
  • 4. Part II Arctic Climate Change............................................................................................................................................. 37 Rate of Change in the Arctic .............................................................................................................................................. 37 Reduction of Arctic Ice ........................................................................................................................................................ 40 The Greenland Ice Sheet .................................................................................................................................................... 40 Imagery of Greenland ......................................................................................................................................................... 41 Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits and Methane ...................................................................................... 45 Part III –Wildlife ................................................................................................................................................................... 47 Changing Patterns ............................................................................................................................................................... 47 Seals and Walrus ................................................................................................................................................................. 48 Whales................................................................................................................................................................................... 48 Caribou and Muskox............................................................................................................................................................ 50 Salmon and Char ................................................................................................................................................................. 51 Polar Bears ........................................................................................................................................................................... 51 Waterfowl and Birds ............................................................................................................................................................ 52 Commercial Fishing ............................................................................................................................................................ 52 Part IV Arctic Political Economy ........................................................................................................................................ 53 Arctic Political Economy – North America ....................................................................................................................... 53 Federal constraints in Alaska ............................................................................................................................................ 56 Economic Opportunity......................................................................................................................................................... 57 Asia Pacific / North America / Europe ............................................................................................................................. 60 UNCLOS – USN & USCG Perspective ................................................................................................................................ 61 U.S. UNCLOS Issues - Undersea Mining and the International Seabed Authority ...................................................... 63 The Kyoto Backdoor ............................................................................................................................................................ 64 3
  • 5. Arctic Rare Earth Elements, Hydrocarbons, and Minerals ............................................................................................ 65 Economics of Transarctic Shipping ................................................................................................................................... 67 Arctic Gateways of North America .................................................................................................................................... 68 Asia Pacific Gateway ........................................................................................................................................................... 70 Arctic Gateway ..................................................................................................................................................................... 73 Part V Arctic Council ............................................................................................................................................................ 74 Permanent Participants ..................................................................................................................................................... 74 Arctic Athabaskan Council ................................................................................................................................................. 76 Aleut International association ......................................................................................................................................... 77 Gwich’in Council International ........................................................................................................................................... 77 Inuit circumpolar council .................................................................................................................................................... 78 Russian Association of Indigenous peoples of the north .............................................................................................. 78 Saami council ....................................................................................................................................................................... 78 Council Members ................................................................................................................................................................. 79 Russian Federation ............................................................................................................................................................. 79 United States ........................................................................................................................................................................ 80 Canada .................................................................................................................................................................................. 81 Iceland ................................................................................................................................................................................... 82 Norway................................................................................................................................................................................... 83 Sweden .................................................................................................................................................................................. 84 Finland ................................................................................................................................................................................... 85 Denmark ............................................................................................................................................................................... 85 Arctic Council Observer Status .......................................................................................................................................... 86 4
  • 6. Non Arctic Observers of the Arctic Council ...................................................................................................................... 86 Intergovernmental and Inter-parliamentary .................................................................................................................... 86 Non Governmental Organizations (NGO) ......................................................................................................................... 87 Applicants for Observer Status .......................................................................................................................................... 87 China ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 88 Italy ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 90 Japan ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 90 Republic of Korea ................................................................................................................................................................ 91 Singapore .............................................................................................................................................................................. 91 India ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 92 European Union.................................................................................................................................................................... 92 Oceana .................................................................................................................................................................................. 93 Association of Oil and Gas Producers .............................................................................................................................. 93 OSPAR Commission ............................................................................................................................................................ 94 Greenpeace .......................................................................................................................................................................... 95 International Hydrographic Organisation......................................................................................................................... 95 World Meteorological Organization .................................................................................................................................. 95 Association of Polar Early Career Scientists ................................................................................................................... 96 Arctic Council and Arctic Circle.......................................................................................................................................... 96 Part VI Geo Strategic Influence ......................................................................................................................................... 97 Strategic Relationships....................................................................................................................................................... 99 Polar Class Icebreakers and Polar Transportation ...................................................................................................... 100 Arctic Summits.................................................................................................................................................................. 101 5
  • 7. Ties That Bind .................................................................................................................................................................... 103 Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response Overview................................................................................................. 104 Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response .................................................................................................................. 104 Oil Spill Response ............................................................................................................................................................. 105 Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge ..................................................................................................................... 107 Government Relations at Different Levels ................................................................................................................... 109 Initiatives of the People ................................................................................................................................................... 110 Thoughts and Observations ............................................................................................................................................ 111 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................................................................... 113 Table of Figures................................................................................................................................................................. 122 6
  • 8. TABLE OF ABBREVIATIONS Abbreviation AHA AIA AMAP ANWR APGC APECS BLM CALM CFC's CO2 DEW Line EEZ EIA ESAS EU GHG GWP HCFC's HFC's IHO ISA KOGAS LNG N2O NATO NCAOR NGO NPR OGP OSPAR OSR PFC's PFL PPFL PSPFL pH ppm REE Meaning Arctic Himalaya Antarctic Aleut International Association Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Aggregate Planetary Glacial Coverage Association of Polar Early Career Scientists Bureau of Land Management Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring Chlorofluorocarbons Carbon dioxide Defense Early Warning Line Exclusive Economic Zone Edmonton International Airport Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf European Union Greenhouse Gas Greenhouse Warming Potential hydrochlorofluorocarbons hydrofluorocarbons International Hydrographic Organisation International Seabed Authority Korean Gas Company Liquid Natural Gas Nitrous oxide North Atlantic Treaty Organization National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research Non Governmental Organization National Petroleum Reserve Association of Oil and Gas Producers Oslo Paris Commission Oil Spill Response perfluorocarbons Positive Feedback Loop Permafrost Positive Feedback Loop Planetary Scale Positive Feedback Loop Parts Hydrogen Parts Per Million Rare Earth Element 7
  • 9. SAR SARC SF6 SST TAPS TSP USSR WMO Search and Rescue Search and Rescue Convention Sulfur hexafluoride Sea Surface Temperature Trans Alaska Pipeline System Thermal State of Permafrost Union of Soviet Socialist Republics World Meteorological Organization 8
  • 10. PART I CLIMATE CHANGE Climate Change from 30,000 Feet There can be little doubt that climate change is a growing concern. News of dramatic storm events continually adds to public awareness of climate change. The idea that climate change contributes to storm events has drawn the attention of the reinsurance industry. Munich Reinsurance a.k.a. Munich RE, is the World’s largest reinsurance company. Munich RE provides insurance to insurance companies. Dr. Peter Hoeppe, Head of Geo Risks Research for Munich RE points out that a large part of the Munich RE business model is to provide insurance for natural catastrophes and environment related claims. As such, it is quite important for Munich RE business model to have a strong understanding of the risks involved. Munich RE insurance data on U.S. weather event damage since 1980 reveals both number of events and claim values of events have been rising steadily across categories; droughts, forest fires, floods, and storms.The insurance industry is estimated to control approximately 25 trillion USD in assets, roughly equivalent to the global pension funds or mutual funds(Mills, 2012). The influence of reinsurance companies in global markets represents a considerable influence on markets and implies appropriate resourcing to secure extraordinarily robust capacity for risk analysis. Extending to a more historical view, Earth has been going through climate change events since the beginning of time. There have, for some time, been different pockets of agreement and large gaps between science and the wider public. Some postulate the science just isn’t settled on the matter of climate change and suggest there’s no widespread agreement. Other arguments suggest there is really no way to know, with certainty, if mankind has really had any measurable impact on the climate. This, of course, begs the question; if mankind has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change, why would we even worry about it at all? After all, invoking that logic, this would all be just a natural cycle for the planet and mankind would have no ability to influence what transpires. 9
  • 11. We have all heard the cornerstone arguments of climate change skeptics many times over the years. While growing attention certainly raises the discussion to new levels, there will always be some people who are just not interested in exploring the science. There are those who will argue that without complete certainty, no arguments and no policy should be made. And of course, there are those who would insist that while the planet is obviously quite variable and that some amount of climate change is a result of input and output models, both are increasing in rate of growth and power due to primarily natural causes. Finally, anthropogenic forcing of carbon as a climate change driver, remains completely off the table for some people as their argument is centered on the premise that either there is no anthropogenic contribution to climate change or that any anthropogenic input is, simply stated, entirely insignificant and irrelevant. Science itself, however, tends to speak for itself. Science generally has to start at a certain point where most information about a subject is largely unknown, it then progresses to a stage where most of the information becomes known and can be empirically proven. The concept that climate change is being accelerated by anthropogenic causes is somewhere on that scale of certainty, but scientists seem to overwhelmingly agree that it is a lot closer to the proven side rather than the disproven side. In other words, this isn’t an all or none bet, but the writing certainly seems to be on the wall as widespread scientific agreement continues to grow. At some point, it should seem obvious that given the enormous complexity of climate research and the multiplicity of sciences involved, that policy makers shall need to grapple with the issue of finding the balance of evidence. In other words, at what point is there enough information for policy makers to be satisfied that climate change has an anthropogenic component? This book is simply a layman's attempt to examine some of the different sciences that inform climate change. What matters, really, is how the reader chooses to think about climate change and decide for themselves if they believe anthropogenic inputs matter and if so, what would their position be on policy designed to reduce anthropogenic inputs. 10
  • 12. Assuming society decide to become focused on climate changeand create an impetus for policy change, it must be remembered that the economic growth of the developing World will be an important component of policy development. Countries highly dependent on hydrocarbon fuel will not be likely to choose to go backwards in their development, so those roads will need to be negotiated and they will produce enormous challenges. Developing countries must be allowed the opportunity for growth and the aspiration to reduce poverty. Isotope Finger Prints Mankind has been creating an impact from the very beginning of course. When mankind began the process of deforestation to move forward as an agricultural society, larger anthropogenic impacts began to take place. The industrial age ushered in an era of accelerated impact. But how do we measure that? Of all the logic, implications, and inferences that science gives us regarding climate change, one particularly fascinating aspect is isotope measurement of carbon. Isotope measurement is quite interesting insomuch as it provides a way to associate the anthropogenic fingerprint on climate change. Through isotope measurement, we can tell, with a great degree of certainty, what caused the CO2. Since CO2 from burning fossil fuels and burning forests have a different isotopic composition from CO2 in the atmosphere, the calculated rations of CO2 in the atmosphere allow for an analysis of the amount of naturally occurring CO2 and anthropogenic CO2. In short, it’s a scientific method to fingerprint the amount of human driven contribution. The results point to measureable anthropogenic carbon forcing as having a contributory effect on climate change(Stuiver, et al., 1984). The Interconnected Earth Planetary climate change is a massive subject and finds intersections with numerous sciences. Throughout the interconnected matrix of science, the recurring theme of mankind’s impact upon the Earth’s atmosphere remains a constant. The only thing to determine is to what extent human activity impacts our atmosphere, and what the ramifications of those impactsare. 11
  • 13. As climate change challenges science to arrive at answers, more and more integration of planetary systems have become increasingly obvious to science. Interconnected systems and their impacts upon each other have revealed a complexity that continues to morph and grow. As those complexities grow, the ramifications of what science can tell us about the interconnectedness of our earth systems will continue to inform the overall understanding of climate change. Advancement of the study of climate changewill continue to expand our understanding of anthropogenic impacts upon the planet. Governments and Climate Adaptation Having attended a number of conferences where climate change was a central theme of the dialogue, it’s quite obvious the global concerns extend well beyond the potential for climate change to impact individual societies. The largest concerns now, it seems, have shifted into an adaptation model. Discussions relative to displaced populations, economic costs associated with change, and how the global community should move forward, require a logical balancing of substantial costs, benefits, and consequences. The discussions and costs associated with climate change manifest themselves in a variety of ways with one of the more visible impacts beinglarge scale storm events. Single storm events and the damage caused by them, are a phenomena of growing intensity and frequency. Severe weather events and the increasing quantity of those events have marked our recent memory. While some debate different aspects of the science, there are few in the scientific community who will insist there is nothing to be concerned about, fewer still in the insurance industry. The U.S. insurance industry experienced 32 some billion in storm related claims in 2011(Jergler, 2012). It’s quite understandable the insurance industry is intensely interested in climate change. It is, in fact, an enormously important part of the core interests of the reinsurance industry because it has a very direct financial impact upon their business. As industry and public become more focused on climate change, governments will follow suit as a matter of representing the broad balance of opinions within society. 12
  • 14. Differentlevels of government and government plannersare paying more attention to be sure their infrastructure projects are able to withstand the impact of climate change(Ontario, 2012).This is a matter of adaptation and requiring investment and it is, therefore, a matter of interest to the taxpayers who funds these investments. As the rate of climate change increases, regardless of cause, a cascading raft of implications will impact mankind, and that impact will be felt, in some manner, everywhere although the most severe consequences are not predicted to be distributed evenly. In other words, rising sea levels are predicted to impact low lying coastal areas in advance of other areas. Currently, as the effects of climate change impact the high latitudes first, the issue of climate changes refugees is becoming a reality in the Circumpolar World along low lying coastal areas, such as we see in places like Newtok, Alaska(Goldenberg, 2013). Science Mash As the rate of sea level rises, the risk of storm surge damage grows also, creating large scale potential for significant damage in costal locations. The range of science is as impressive as the ramifications of the subject matter, and by mashing up the science; we find the accelerating rate of climate change is amplified by positive feedback loops (PFL).In other words, as more CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, the warmer air temperatures become. As air temperatures rise, faster ice melting and evaporation will generate more moisture in the atmosphere, which is in and of itself a greenhouse gas. All of these lead to increased significant weather events. Increased temperatures also accelerate ice melt in the polar regions. In the Arctic Ocean, as the ice melts there is more dark water to absorb energy, this in turn adds to melting due to warmer sea surface temperatures. Understanding the PFL’s and how they interact with each other will lead to an enhanced understanding of the cumulative effect of PFL’s and how thataccelerates the rate of climate change. The accelerating rate of climate change due to the PFL’s encourage the use of coupled climate models in order to generate more predictive models when solving for potential outcomes of climate change(Cox, 2000). 13
  • 15. Atmospheric CO2Levels Transitioning into the 21st century, there has been an ongoing scientific debate where climate change is concerned. As more science is evaluated, it has become increasingly obvious that the climate is changing dramatically. One of the films that helped shift the conversation from scientific communities more squarely into the public mainstream was Al Gore’s film entitled "An Inconvenient Truth". An Inconvenient Truth won two Academy Awards, twenty three other awards,and garnered 24 million in U.S. box office receipts, 26 million in foreign box office receipts, and is the 9th highest grossing documentary film to date(IMDb, 2006). Clearly, there were many people who were interested in the subject. In the film, the central theme is the growth of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide emissions. The parts per million (ppm) of CO2 as recorded by observation posts around the World are graphed to show the historic patters of CO2 in the atmosphere. Since 2008, the amount of atmospheric CO2 recorded at the Mauna Loa Observatory site recorded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has risen from about 385 parts per million (ppm) to 391 ppm as of October 2012(NOAA, 2012). 14
  • 16. Figure 1- NOAA 2009 - 2014 CO2 Levels Source:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Trending over the last few years is consistent with trending noticed since accurate monitoring of atmospheric CO2 levels began at Mauna Loa. Observations have taken place at Mauna Loa since shortly after the midpoint of the 20th century and reveal a steady climb from around 318 ppm to the current levels that are approaching 400 ppm. The 400 ppm mark(NOAA, 2013) was reached in May of 2013, recording a milestone in the amount of CO2in the atmosphere. Continued emissions from anthropogenic sources do not constitute the largest percentage of the normal global carbon cycle, but the portion is considerable. As the levels of CO2raise, the overall amount in the atmosphere continues to grow. Due to the sheer amount of CO2 emissions exceeding the capacity of planetary carbon sinks, the Earth's ability to remove CO2 is being 15
  • 17. overwhelmed. This excess over capacity to remove is commonly referred to as carbon forcing and is a contributing factor to the rise in atmospheric CO2 ppm growth. The clear evidence of longitudinal carbon forcing has been measured in numerous locations globally, with the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaiibeing quite well known. Figure 2 - Atmospheric CO2 Mauna Loa since the mid-20th Century Source:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Long Term Gases The reason CO2 gets so much attention given the wide range of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere, is the fact that it will last and persist in the atmosphere for a thousands of years. Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a calculation for greenhouse gases (GHG) potential to impact climate change. 16
  • 18. The GWP is a way of measuring the amount of energy from solar radiation that the gas can absorb over a period of time, usually over one hundred years, and the length of time it will remain in the atmosphere. Because CO2 is by far the most prevalent GHG in Earth’s atmosphere, the GWP model sets CO2 as 1, where all other GHG’s are evaluated compared to CO2.Calculating the potential of the gas and adjusting for the length of time it remains in the atmosphere creates a metric that gives us a reference with which to compare different gases. Methane has a GWP more than 20 times higher than CO2 as measured on a 100 year time scale. Nitrous Oxide (N2O)is about 300 times higher than CO2 and lasts for more than 100 years in the atmosphere. Other gases that contain chlorine or fluorine and have high GWP ratings are perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), and Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) are all called high-GWP gases because, for a given amount of mass, they trap substantially more heat than CO2does.(IPCC, 2007). Some paleoclimatologists, however, warn that atmospheric CO2 is quite misunderstood. Essentially, the largest area of complexity has to do with the way the gas is taken up in various Earth systems, especially the oceans since they are the largest carbon sink on the planet. Some of the gas is taken up by the ocean, thus creating the possibility that some of the gas may only be exposed to the atmosphere for a relatively short period of time, possibly measured in just a few years. Yet much of the gas is released back into the atmosphere from the oceans. This, in turn, creates an argument that CO2 may linger in the atmosphere for centuries or even millennia. From the layman's perspective, this seems to be a splitting of the chemical hairs and of little useful interest. What people really want to know is, on the whole, how long does the gas exist in the atmosphere, not what kind of arguments we can make that reflect challenges to the scientific minutiae of climate change drivers. 17
  • 19. Probably the best way to describe the overall lifetime residue of CO2 in the atmosphere is characterized by some portion of it being removed in a short period of time, say a few decades, and some of it may remain in the atmosphere for millennia. There is no precise way to isolate and define exactly what percentage of CO2 remains in the atmosphere and for what amount of time. What we can say, however, is that a portion of the CO2 forced into the atmosphere in excess of what can be removed by planetary carbon sinks will last for centuries or millennia. The long persistence of CO2 is what creates such interest in the gas and is also why science carries such a strong interest in CO2 emissions. Short Term Gases Gases that last a relatively short time in the atmosphere can do significant damage, like methane (CH4), but for only a relatively short period of time (ranges from 10 to 12 years). Within the range of GHG’s, the PFC’s, CFC’s, HFC’s, and HCFC’s can exhibit both short term and long term ranges, depending on the composition. These may range from a few years of persistence, such as Methyl chloroform at 5 years, to Sulfur hexafluoride at 3,200 years and PFC-116 at 10,000 years to PFC-14 at 50,000 years. Some of the most widely used high impact short term GHG’s are covered under the Montreal Protocol(UN, 1987)which has demonstrated that unified international agreements on limits combined with movement into less harmful technologies has had a positive impact on atmospheric levels of these gases. In other words, it is possible to make a difference if the global community is prepared to make agreements and observe them. Quite often, however, large sweeping international agreements like Kyoto have or imply substantial implications for national economic impact and costs. This can become highly politicized depending on the prevailing nationaleconomic conditions at the time, and in addition, the overall capacity of signatories to sustain protracted economic hardships. It’s rarely as simple 18
  • 20. as embracing the best scientific decision based on the science we know about the short term and long term gases. Ice Core Samples It is possible to examine atmospheric levels of CO2 prior to the start of 20th century monitoring. To do this, we examine ice core samples. In ice core samples, small air pockets that were formed thousands of years ago can now be analyzed with modern technology. Scientists are able to secure ice core samples and evaluate the gas composition within those air pockets. This gives us a way to look back in time and plot the atmospheric CO2 in ppm across tens of thousands years. Numerous studies have been conducted that suggest for that records dating back a millennia are fairly consistent in peaks of less than 300ppm, usually around 285ppm. The measurement of ppm CO2 in the atmosphere correlates to mean temperature analysis projections and is well documented over the course of the last couple of centuries. In order to have a more meaningful overview of the nature of CO2 ppm measurements, a study of ice cores from the Antarctic were undertaken. Three sites were selected and sampled, DE08, DEO8-2, and DSS ice-cores(Etheridge, et al., 1988). The ice cores were analyzed and results plotted using a graph of 75 year intervals to smooth the graph for a more meaningful presentation; the analysis correlates with other ice core analysis studies taken from the Antarctic. The main implication of ice core sample analysis is that at approximately the onset of the industrial age, when humans began burning large amounts of coal to fuel factories and transportation systems, the rise of atmospheric CO2 began to climb in a manner that is an anomaly compared to data from older sections of ice cores. The rising CO2 ppm counts in the atmosphere have been rising dramatically, ice cores show this. Ice core sample data shows that 19
  • 21. since the 1800’s CO2 ppm has been rising at a faster rate than ever before recorded, and it is growing faster each year. During that same time, a general warming of the planet has been noted because CO2obviously acts as a GHG that increases heat in the atmosphere. Figure 3 - Law Dome Historical Ice Core CO2 Samples 75 Years Smoothed Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratories Soviet era scientists also engaged in Antarctic ice core sampling. In one of their studies, a 160,000 year record was identified in the Vostok ice core samples, taken in the Eastern Antarctic. The extensive Vostok ice-core sample provides correlation between pre-industrial CO2 levels and rising post-industrial CO2. It also provides cyclic changes evident over a period of approximately 21 thousand years, in line with orbital procession(Barnola, et al., 1987). 20
  • 22. CO2 Projections to the 22nd Century The projections of CO2 emissions through the remainder of the 21st century are substantial. Even with efforts to mitigate emissions, the ramifications imply increased temperatures which mean the planet will continue to shed ice. A recent study led by Nadine Unger of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), breaks down CO2 emissions by expected sector release through to 2013. In this way, it is hoped a more intuitive understanding of which human activities may be creating the most significant amount of CO2 emissions through the rest of the 21st century. The result of the finding is that ground transportation is likely to be the single most significant source of CO2 emissions through the rest of the 21st century. 21
  • 23. Figure 4 - GISS CO2 Emissions to 2100 by Category Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/ As transportation continues to fuel the global economy, our structures related to logistics and supply chains are constantly reinforcing land based on-road transportation. As the tonnage of goods interchanged across global supply chains continues to grow, it seems likely that securing increasingly efficient transportation alternatives compared to current day fossil fuel transportation will continue to grow in importance. 22
  • 24. Figure 5 - Climate Impacts to 2100 by Industry Mw Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/ It can also be argued that by understanding the sector where we can anticipate the greatest expansion of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, we can more effectively create alternative models to move our goods through our global supply chain with ever increasing fuel efficiency and alternative fuels, something that is now starting to emerge with the rise of inland ports and fuel efficient rail to truck transportation infrastructure. That said, the on-road component is mainly encouraged by the design of the automobile society and the proverbial urban commute. As mass transportation and metropolitan design reduces the requirement of people to undertake 23
  • 25. commuting, the global impact of CO2 emissions can be significantly reduced, or at least the rate of growth can be limited. Subsurface Sedimentary Samples Another interesting branch of research examines the occurrence of multiple rare isotope substitutions in biologically precipitated carbonate materials. This method is yielding information to researchers studying subsurface sedimentary samples in different locations. Using the approach of carbonate clumped isotope thermometry; researchers developan understanding of past climates. Research conducted and currently under review was done to gather a marker based on the Early Pliocene era when CO2 levels were at levels near levels recorded in recent years (the 365415ppm range). Research to analyze temperatures during that period were conducted at the Early Pliocene Beaver Pond site on Ellesmere Island and the results indicate it was between 1118 C warmer than present day temperatures in the May-Sep timeframe(Csank, et al., n.d.). Extending our understanding of biologically precipitated carbonate materials has considerable value as an important component to understanding the past and current status of the oceans. Oceanic content of CO2 is about fifty times larger than the atmosphere and about ten times larger than estimates of plant and soil carbon sinks. This is such a massive number because the oceanic reservoir is so vast and CO2 diffuses across the air-sea boundary into seawater(Field, et al., 2004). The ocean is the largest carbon sink on our planet. Rising Sea Surface Temperatures Rising sea surface temperatures (SST) contribute to the amount of available atmospheric water vapor and this, of course, impacts global climate conditions. The amount of SST change is part of the complex global climate equation also impacted by aggregate planetary glacial coverage 24
  • 26. (APGC). In addition to the Arctic and Antarctic, APGC is recession. The loss of ice across the Arctic, Himalayas, and Antarctic (AHA) and other parts of the globe are cause to strongly consider that increased moisture availability combined with atmospheric forcing; along with decreased polar ice size constitutes part of a PFL that in addition to raising sea levels, may accelerate the rate of SST increases(Bony, et al., 1997). SST impacts oceanic environment and global climate systems in ways that may be difficult to quantify, but there is little doubt all of these issues are growing to create a nexus of scientific evidence that supports the reality that completely modeling the entirety of the planet climate is likely as close to an impossible task as would be humanly possible, but understanding that SST’s accelerate climate change would generate little argument. Ocean Acidification Ocean acidification poses a considerable issue as well. As carbon dioxide levels rise, the planetary mechanisms to overcome this are what we call carbon sinks. Carbon sinks take many forms from the jungles of the Amazon to trees in our own backyard. The largest carbon sinks, as previously outlined, are the oceans. As more carbon dioxide enters the ocean, the parts of hydrogen (pH) are reduced in a normal chemical process. This process is akin to the respiratory system of a human being. Human pH range is normally 7.35 to 7.45 which is measured with an arterial blood sample and is directly correlated to carbon monoxide levels which are regulated by the cardiopulmonary system. Failure to maintain the proper pH range in the blood can result in serious medical issues and can even potentially result in death. We do not know precisely what the range is for normal oceanic health, but it is safe to assume there will be substantial complications should pH move beyond normal levels. In the case of the 25
  • 27. ocean, reduced pH is called acidification. In a human patient, this would be called acidosis. In both cases, serious consequences are likely results. Because the Oceans represent the largest carbon sink on the Earth, the importance of the Oceans to CO2 removal cannot be understated. It has been suggested that since the industrial revolution, oceans have become approximately 30% more acidic, with some scientists suggesting that level could rise dramatically by the end of the 21st century. Oceanic acidification effectively interrupts the ability of a wide variety of oceanic life to produce protective shells through the use of calcium carbonate. This, in turn, negatively impacts the calcifying organisms’ ability to reproduce and is known to have negative health impacts on numerous organisms. Phytoplankton andvarious species of invertebrates like sponges, mollusks, worms, and crustaceans are all affected. These impacts modify and shift mobile undersea life forms as they adapt and/or move in response to acidification. This, in turn, impacts the rest of the food chain and can have a negative impact on indigenous subsistence, culture, and traditions as sea life patterns shift to adapt and survive. Different global locations report ―bleaching‖ of coral reefs and this is widely understood to be a result of the thermal tolerance of corals and their photosynthetic symbionts (zooxanthellae) being exceeded(Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999). Changes in sea temperatures accelerate this process and large scale coral reef bleaching events are likely to become even more common place events over the next few decades. Most researchers believe the ability to adapt will not be fast enough to avoid a severe declination of coral reefs in the planetary oceans, resulting in an enormous decline in the health of the Earth’s reefs. This is likely to be very pronounced and could cause significant problems, especially for tropical marine ecosystems. 26
  • 28. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AAMAP) released a statement through the Arctic Council that points to an Arctic that is rapidly accumulating CO2which is leading to an accelerated rate of acidification. This is a particularly challenging situation because CO2 is more readily absorbed into cold water and the addition of the freshwater content due to the melting glacial ice is reducing the ability of the ocean to neutralize the acidification process.Because Arctic food chains are relatively simple, it is thought the Arctic will sustain dramatic changes at an accelerated rate compared to many other parts of the World.(Council, 2013) Arctic ecosystem changes are taking place at an accelerated rate compared to many other parts of the World. It is thought the changes taking place on numerous fronts across the Circumpolar World are likely to cross a threshold that would cause irreversible changes to entire ecosystems, environmental processes, and thus, have dramatic impact on Arctic societies.(Centre, 2013) 27
  • 29. The Great Ocean Conveyor System The great ocean conveyor systemhas long been known to distribute warm and cold water globally. Figure 6 - Great Ocean Conveyor Belt Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/ocean/circulation.htm 28
  • 30. The traditional ocean conveyor is thought to be integrally involved with global weather patterns. In 2009, Duke University and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute announced what they believe to be a challenge to the way we think about the great ocean conveyor system(Woods Hole, 2009). The complete function of the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt is not entirely understood although it is widely believed to be of considerable importance to global climate conditions. Figure 7 - North Atlantic Circulation Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/legrande_01/ As new science is emerging, it is likely this system will also be found to have considerable effect on what happens with global climate change. As surface and near surface water temperatures continue to rise, it is impossible to predict what impact this will have on the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt and how it may interact with other aspects of Global Climate Change. The science relative to this system is still relatively new. How Climate Change impacts the Conveyer and vice-versa is an area of science only relatively recently 29
  • 31. explored.Fundamentally, it is understood that thermohaline currents have a significant impact on the constant motion of the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt(NOAA, 2013). Cold water has higher salinity properties and is denser than warm water. As such, the cold salty water sinks to the bottom while warm less dense water rises. As the Gulf Stream warm water heats the atmosphere in the northern latitudes, the heat coming out of the water causes the northern waters to cool and, therefore, sink. Warm water from the Gulf Stream displaces the colder waters. As the conveyormakes its way south closer to the bottom of the ocean and near Antarctica, the waters are quite cold. These waterseventually warm as they move through the tropics on their way north, thus rising to the surface. It is estimated that it takes approximately a millennia for the water to make a complete circle of the globe. In the grand scheme of things, there is no way of predicting if an interruption of the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt is likely to occur, but it is presumed that if it does occur, the ramifications to the global climate could be quite dramatic. It is possible that a shifting of the Great Ocean Conveyer Belt could precipitate an extremely cold period across the northern latitudes. The Jet Stream Impact As scientists examine the jet stream and the impact that climate change is having on the jet stream, there evolved a possible explanation of the enormous size of the high pressure weather system that was trapped over the Greenland Ice Sheet. This is thought to be related to unusual changes in the jet stream, in particular, related to the increasing peaks and troughs. The wave contours of jet stream look a bit like a wavy line until they compress and elongate, taking the shape of a compressed amplitude signal. This phenomenon tends to allow storms to linger in place rather than moving more rapidly across their normal west to east route across the continents. 30
  • 32. Dr. Jennifer Francis, a climate researcher from Rutgers University, has spent the last 15 years specializing in the study of how the atmosphere is affected by the changes in the Arctic climate and in particular, examining the changes due to massive losses of Arctic ice. Her research and that of other scientists has created in interesting view of how climate change, and in particular, how Arctic climate change is impacting the jet stream and how that, in turn, impacts the weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Warming of the Arctic, according to her hypothesis,suggests a general weakening of the jet stream.As the jet stream weakens, it compresses the wave like patterns and lengthens the patterns on a north south direction. These phenomena, ostensibly caused by warming arctic temperatures, can contribute to the exacerbation of blocking patterns. As blocking patterns become stronger, the conditions such as the high pressure ―warm‖ air that held fast over the Greenland Ice Sheet, was there long enough and strong enough to cause a huge acceleration of surface melt to the point where almost the entire surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet was under some level of melt. During periods of a normal jet stream, this would be unheard of. As the jet stream tightens up and lengthens out, there will be further distribution of exacerbations of normal weather conditions. The cold can go further south just as the heat may go further north. The waves in the jet stream also tend to become elongated with the peaks of the waves extending further north.This research indicates we can expect weather patterns to slow, which means extreme weather may tend to linger longer, thereby exacerbating weather events. If it’s a drought, it may stay dry longer, likewise, if it’s a snowstorm, it may snow longer and harder. If it's a rain event, the rain could last longer in a single area, creating enormous overcapacity for river basins and, hence, creating increased potential for flooding. These observations also have ramifications for accelerating the ice melt in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. 31
  • 33. Interestingly, Dr. Francis superimposed the high level jet stream data onto maps that correlate to times when recent major storm events, such as recent hurricanes and other large and unusually powerful storm events in recent years. Her initial finding was a very strong correlation to these elongated wave patterns as predicted by her theory. Even the recent flooding of 2013 in Alberta, when I pulled the data for the jet stream, showed the same wave form pattern, called Rossby Waves, were present in the rocky mountains to the west of Alberta in the days immediately before and during the onset of flooding events.(Groat, 2013) Yucatan Current & Gulf Stream Probably the first time the Gulf Stream was accurately mapped out, it was done by Benjamin Franklin. Because of the Gulf Stream, areas such as the British Isles enjoy moderated temperatures, especially during the winter months, causing temperatures to be relatively moderate. Scientists are investigating what appears to be a reduction in the Gulf Stream, and more importantly, how the Gulf Stream may possibly impact the Jet Stream, especially in the North Atlantic. Interruption of the Gulf Stream can be caused by a number of reasons, but there is no clear and identifiable obvious data set that can prove precisely why there are changes in the Gulf Stream that has caused it to start shifting normal flow patterns. Some researchers have suggested the massive amounts of COREXIT used as a disbursement agent on the oil spill caused from the infamous accident on the Deepwater Horizon. Numerous studies have been conducted; one of the findings was that while the disbursement seemed to function, it created smaller droplets of oil that moved in a large plume at depths in the Gulf. It is thought, by some, that there may be some possibility that unknown effects from the Deepwater Horizon and the chemicals used may have played a part in interrupting more than 32
  • 34. expected. COREXITapplication is thought to have generated significant enough outcomes and to have generated sufficient sized undersea oil plumes to interfere with the Gulf Stream and, by extrapolation, this could impact the ocean conveyor system. There were also concerns raised about deepwater deployment of COREXIT. When the undersea oil plum was discovered, researchers sampled different depths including the depth where they encountered the oil plume, pronounced between 1,100 and 1,300 meters. When the content of the plumes were sent for analysis, the findings showed a heavy concentration of six hydrocarbons out of more than one hundred compounds tested for. As it turned out, a preponderance of six petroleum hydrocarbon compounds were found: benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes—a group commonly known as BTEX. Understanding why these BTEX was present and many other chemicals were not caused researchers to expect thousands of compounds from the Deepwater Horizon petroleum rose toward the surface while the BTEX compounds seemed to find a depth of between about 1,100 and 1,300 meter deep and then started to move laterally as a plume. BTEX compounds’ chemical structure, which gives them their characteristic properties. They all have one benzene ring (six carbons in a hexagon, with three double bonds). That made them more likely to dissolve in water than straight-chained hydrocarbons.In oil spills at the sea surface, BTEXs can quickly evaporate into the air. But released deep down and far from the atmosphere, BTEXs have time to dissolve into the ocean water before having a chance to evaporate. The compounds, which are known to be toxic to living things, were not degraded by bacteria but rather remained in the deep. That raises new questions about the potential for harmful ecological impacts from the spill.(WHOI, 2011). In addition to the questions about harmful ecological effects, some have speculated that these plumes may have had a blunting impact on the gulf stream. If that were true, northern latitude 33
  • 35. locations such as London could be subject to climate change acceleration if the strength of the Gulf Stream deteriorates. If that has any impact upon the Jet Stream, still further unwinding environmental consequences begin to unfold. These conceptual ideas are fascinating to consider, but the hard science is simply not available in a larger sense. Strength and direction changes of the Gulf Stream, however, can be documented by consulting Gulf Stream comparisons at the NOAA National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center. Recent concerns project a changing Gulf Stream may be contributing to a warming of intermediate depth ocean temperatures which are destabilizing 2.5 gigatonnes of methane hydrate, which if felt to be a fraction of the methane hydrates destabilizing globally.(Phrampus, 2012) COP18 – DOHA UN Report on Permafrost Thawing As global leaders descended on Doha for the COP18 meetings, the United Nations Climate Programme announced new findings relative to permafrost thawing and the need to review the ramifications of CO2 and methane release as a result of widespread observed permafrost melting. In addition to an understanding of what impacts permafrost thawing will have on infrastructure in the Arctic, there is also a concern that the rates of GHG release as a result of permafrost thawing could cause global CO2 agreements to be understated by considerable amounts, perhaps as much as 40% understated(UN, 2012). There are different ways to monitor permafrost status, with two networks providing most of the terrestrial data. The Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) network examines permafrost temperatures in 860 boreholes while the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) measures the thickness of the active layers of permafrost at 260 sites. 34
  • 36. Accordingly, when goals are negotiated, there are early signals that the agreements sought, and argued over, may in fact be proposals that are almost half as much as they should be. In short, the goals related to CO2 emissions are not adjusted to account for the additional GHG’s brought on by the emissions of additional CO2. While the outcome of the COP18 meetings were generally thought to be disappointing, the emergence of a new dialogue about the insufficiency of overall targets due to the extraordinarily large underestimation of permafrost methane release should result in a considerable expansion of baseline goals at the 2015 meeting in Copenhagen. In addition to the underestimation of GHG release due to insufficient accounting for methane (CO4) release due to terrestrial permafrost instability.The evidence of climate change driven large storm events continues to grow and solidify across both the scientific community and the insurance industry and the mainstream public. As this grows,GHG emission targets and negotiating positions will need to be well thought out long before the international community assembles in Copenhagen for the next round of talks. It may be that subsea methane release may also have atmospheric consequences in addition to the obvious impact of oceanic acidification and these matters might find their way into the Copenhagen discussions. Permafrost Positive Feedback Loop The GHG’s that are emitted as a result of melting permafrost feed into a positive feedback look. As more permafrost melts, greater amounts of GHG’s are released which in turn, continue to amplify the effect through the Permafrost Positive Feedback Loop (PPFL). This is one component of a larger Planetary Scale Positive Feedback Loop (PSPFL). While the rate and amount of GHG’s released from melting permafrost are difficult to predict due the infancy of this data observation and the longitudinal time frames required to understand, with any great degrees of certainty, the precise and growth rate of the issue. Estimates show an 35
  • 37. increase of GHG release due to PSPFL release combined with anthropogenic forcing could drive CO2ppm to extraordinarily high levels within, geologically speaking, a very short window of time. The consequences for climate cannot be known, but the changes already being seen and felt certainly seem to be suggestive this matter is worth some of our finest scientific minds. When the estimated GHG release is considerably larger than anticipated, this compounds policy issuesthrough the realization that these emissions were not calculated into Kyoto targets. Again, the Doha COP18 meetings have not taken these quantities into policy considerations as targets either. Emerging science is a cause for the significant realignment of the urgency of the overall issue. If anything, there is substantial cause to give the scientific community and global policy forums a new source of GHG’s to consider when establishing targets. Of note, the TSP and CALM network observations are showing that permafrost temperatures have risen over the past few decades and indicate a massive thawing of permafrost may already be underway. Intrinsic knowledge and observations by indigenous people confirm this finding and undersea estimates of methane hydrate release are all entering into the equations of overall GHG emissions. Planetary Scale Positive Feedback Loop Larger open sea areas erode more land, reduces ice surface increases heat, emission of methane and carbon dioxide creates more greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the planet reacts with carbon sinks, this creates more acidification of oceans, and the entire cycle feeds on itself in a planetary scale positive feedback loop. The combination of these things and other things, probably some still unknown, will continue to create what we call an amplification process; this will be particularly noted in the higher latitudes, and in particular, the Arctic. All of these things create scientific challenges and point towards a 36
  • 38. real need for political acceptance of the science and the beginning of a serious effort to begin concrete plans for adaptation to the coming acceleration of global climate changes. These changes, quite naturally, will present in Canada where it is assumed they will take the form of wetter Spring and Summer months, increased high temperature events plus more and more dramatic storm events. Winter months could be warmer initially, and depending on conveyer changes and La Niña and El Niño weather patterns, it could become colder; there is some debate about overall snowfall. A shifting of the ocean conveyer system is thought to have ramifications that could change prevailing winds and currents, possibly shifting the northern latitudes into a significant cooling period with large scale storm events gaining momentum to compressed Rossby wave forms in the jet stream. PART II ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE Rate of Change in the Arctic Climate change in the Arctic happens faster than anywhere on the planet, a scientific fact that finds little dispute from any group. For many years, it has been described as the canary in the coal mine(Michaels, 2004). As circumpolar leaders and experts met at the Arctic Imperative Summit, the recession of Arctic ice, a.k.a. the ice melt, had exceeded 2007 levels (NSIDC, 2012). 37
  • 39. Figure 8 - 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html While the Arctic shows evidence of global climate change at a faster rate than other areas, it also presents a very attractive subject for research and study. There is room to expand the interdisciplinary aspect of the many scientific fields studying climate change impacts in the high Arctic, but this is offset by the difficulty and expense of reaching Arctic areas for the purpose of conducting scientific research(Hinzmon, 2005). Further visualizations of the Arctic Sea Ice minimum provide insight into the extent of the sea ice loss in the Arctic which creates a large dark area to absorb more solar radiation, and of course, provides a growing area of single year ice that has greater propensity to melt faster. 38
  • 40. Figure 9 - Polar Visualization of Sea Ice Minimum 2012 Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html The challenges are real, the Arctic is changing quickly, and projections of increased economic activity in the Circumpolar World seem inevitable. Recognition of the consequences of accelerating climate change for Arctic environments will aid the voices advocating for more research funding on the part of the entire Circumpolar World and beyond. Swedish researchers note a generalized loss of cold winters and cool summers while noting more extreme precipitation events. Their understanding of the rate of climate change has led them to focus on adaptation strategy. Like many entities, the circumpolar governments and regional stakeholders are turning more and more energy to the adaptation process(Callaghan, et al., 2010). In the eyes of all the circumpolar nations, the debate as to if the climate is changing is long gone. The conversation is now about how best to adapt since their part of the planet will be impacted fastest. 39
  • 41. Reduction of Arctic Ice The reduction of Arctic Ice creates a variety of issues and opportunities. The issue from the standpoint of ice melting is that polar ice reflects light (and heat). As the ice melts, the dark water surface absorbs more heat, this creates faster temperature rise which, in turn, causes the ice melt to occur at a faster rate. This kind of feedback system, or PFL, is one of many components that impact global climate change. In addition, water on top of the ice pack also creates more rapid heat absorption because it creates a dark area on the ice surface that absorbs more heat. While melting Arctic ice does not cause sea levels to rise, much like a melting ice cube in a glass of water does not cause the level of liquid in the glass to rise; it does create warmer temperatures which cause other circumpolar ice to melt. As large amounts of land based ice melt, like the Greenland Ice Shelf, that does introduce more water into the ocean, which does raise sea levels. As Arctic ice minimums continue to advance, creating more dark water, the ramifications impact not only the acceleration of temperature change, but it also creates young ice areas which require less energy to melt during subsequent melting cycles. The National Snow and Ice Data Center tracks daily changes in the Arctic ice cover. The Arctic ice recedes yearly through melting during the warm months, typically stopping its recession around the end of September when it becomes cold enough for the ice coverage to begin extending again. In 2012, the Arctic ice minimum was found to be at the lowest levels since this data has been tracked by satellite(NSIDC, 2012). The Greenland Ice Sheet The Greenland Ice Sheet is a massive land based ice deposit. This vast area of ice is starting to undergo rapid melting cycles. While this has been noted by scientists for many years, the rapid acceleration of Greenland’s ice combined with additional complicating factors, are only recently emerging as an environmental issue that is starting to command global interest. 40
  • 42. Unusual weather patterns noted in 2012 include the U.S. drought, and a sudden widespread surface melt event impacting the Greenland Ice Sheet. This set of circumstances, known as a heat dome, occurs when the jet stream patterns keep cooler air to the north which, in turn, allows warmer air from the Gulf stream to rise up to Greenland. The phenomena, in July of 2012, caused a rapid spread of surface melt in Greenland, extending the area from about 40% of Greenland’s surface to nearly complete coverage over the course of just four days. Typically, the maximum surface melt area in Greenland during the hottest point of the summer is around 50%. The scope of these phenomena are certainly attention getting, but there is also evidence this may be part of a cyclical event. While there is not enough evidence to suggest this predicts an impending catastrophic ice loss and resultant accelerated rates of sea level rise, it certainly warrants further investigation and attention. If instability and accelerating melting takes place on the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctic, the level of sea rise could be far faster than was originally thought. It seems like scientists continue to be surprised each year as the rate of change exceeds the predictive components of their models. If there is a tipping point and the largest of the land based glaciers melt into the ocean, we would have sea levels that are several meters higher than they are now. Under the most prepared scenario, it is hard to imagine to what extent such an impact would damage global trading patterns. Imagery of Greenland Satellite Data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite taken between 2002 and 2008, demonstrate that Greenland has been losing approximately 195 cubic kilometers of ice per year. A large section of the Peterman glacier, some 130 square kilometers, 41
  • 43. broke off due to the high temperatures, but since this section was already floating on the ocean, it will not contribute to rising sea levels. That said, as similar weather patterns repeat in conjunction with rising average air temperatures, the rate of melt on land is likely to grow. In 2012, the cumulative melt days exceeded 120 days in low elevation areas and melt extent was greater than 100 days in far north areas. This has not occurred previously in the last century and ice core samples show it has only happened a few times over the last millennia. Figure 10 - Greenland Ice Melt Cumulative Days 2012 Source: http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/02/greenland-melting-2012-in-review/ 42
  • 44. Ice melt rate is also affected by other factors, including airborne particulates raining out over the ice sheet causing dark spots. Images of these dark spotsevoke an interest in knowing if, from a hydrological perspective, they are isolated from glacial sub surface water. The dark holes appear to be bore holes. These holes initially absorb solar energy at a higher rate causing an increase in the rate of melt in these dark holes. Figure 11 - Cryoconites (Black Holes) in ice Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/PaintedGlaciers/page3.php As the holes get deeper, the rate of deepening begins to rescind as the exposure angle to the sun decreases, and at some point the rate of melt equalizes with surrounding ice. As these holes create a matrix of higher melt points, they become increasingly subject to interrelationships with under surface fissures and fractures of the major ice sheets. To the extent these many drain into large ice sheet fractures and lubricate the glacier contact points with land, the rate of progression of land based ice and land contact points tends to create an opportunity for ice to shift and move, probably a lot sooner than it otherwise would have. 43
  • 45. Particulates that absorb heat like black carbon, vanillic acid, and sulphur that fall on the Greenland Ice Shelf create the aforementioned dark areas creating bore holes. These particulate driven bore holes are called cryoconite holes. Cyroconite holes have been widely reported by glaciologists, especially those who study the Greenland Ice Shelf. It is thought, based on the chemical composition of the soot, that much of it comes from coal burning plants in Asia; this is based on assumptions of wind conditions and observable fallout patterns. Figure 12 - Ice Melt on Greenland Ice Shelf Source: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2008/greenland_speedup.html Rivers of water are also noted with massive drop offs into large crevasse structures. It’s the combination of rising surface temperatures and particulate fallout from high emission industrial output that creates what appears to be an accelerated migration of surface water to the ice bedrock interface(Zwally, et al., 2002). 44
  • 46. It may also be presumed these holes contribute integrity challenges to the ice sheet, probably creating larger areas that break off as the ice sheet approaches the ocean. Other chemical compositions suggest some of the soot is due to massive forest fires in other parts of the globe, another by-product of climate change as large forested areas undergo significant drought during the summer months, hence creating ideal conditions for large forest fires. Ice core samples reveal coal soot particulate content in the Arctic can be correlated to the maximum effect of the industrialization of the period from 1906 to 1910 (McConnell, 2007)and note thermal temperature rises eight times larger than the pre-industrialization age. Much of the sootexamined from ice core samples on the Greenland Ice Sheet during that time frame is thought to have derived from the United States and Canada. Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits and Methane Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Carbon Deposits of methane and carboniferous materials on Arctic coastal areas also represent a considerable store of materials that have potential to release GHGemissions that will continue to accelerate the rate of climate change. The Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) covers approximately 7,000 kilometers with significant outcroppings of complex ancient ice deposits rich in carboniferous materials in addition to substantial quantities of shallow subsea permafrost. This exists throughout the entire Arctic region, but the ESAS is by far the most proliferous area. 45
  • 47. Figure 13 - Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Source: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov As climate change creates larger open water areas in the Arctic for longer periods of time, erosion of these shelves increase the releaseof these carboniferous materials into the ocean. Microbial consumption of these materials produces carbon dioxide and methane. The release of carbon dioxide and methane vent to the atmosphere. Massive deposits of methane hydrates are also known to exist in the form of methane hydrates are trapped in a frozen state beneath the Arctic tundra. Coastal erosion due to increased tidal activity combined with warming will bring these coastline and sea based deposits to the mix. Since methane has approximately 20-23 times greater impact on warming, meaning it traps much more heat, the ramifications of large scale emissions of methane into the atmosphere further exacerbate the PFL effect. Because methane dissipates relatively quickly, the overall impact of methane release may not have enormous impact on overall global average temperatures (Kvenvolden, 1988) in and of itself, taken together with other components in a PSPFT, the impact could be magnified significantly. 46
  • 48. If technology existed to easily capture methane from the Arctic tundra, the sheer quantity of deposits might help to accelerate the economic viability of methane production. Because it is a very efficient fuel, there is little doubt that an economic model to capture methane would be of serious interest to various stakeholders in the Arctic, especially those who would be in a position to benefit from profitable resource development. Capturing the methane before it escapes into the atmosphere would prevent a GHG some 20+ times more potent than CO2 from contributing its effects to climate change. But the numerous challenges of getting to the resource and then fielding the technology to capture it present challenges that may render this option uneconomic. PART III –WILDLIFE Changing Patterns Intuit knowledge of Arctic wildlife supports the health and wellbeing of their various communities. Indigenous settlement of the Arctic is considerable, with over four million people living in the Arctic. Of the four million, about ten percent, or around four hundred thousand are indigenous. Yet their presence in the Arctic has been established for thousands of years. Indigenous knowledge of the wildlife patterns often extends across centuries. This longitudinal knowledge creates a unique understanding of how patterns establish, change, and then reestablish in the Arctic. While the indigenous peoples are worried that increased development of the Arctic will bring many influences that will place pressure on wildlife and ultimately result in changed patterns, one of the chief concerns of the indigenous people is that the cycle of patterns may not be repeated. It’s difficult to predict what the wildlife will do and if the patterns that have been established and re-established over the centuries will be re-established going forward. 47
  • 49. Seals and Walrus Seal is one of the most important sources of Arctic diets. Not only are seals plentiful, their skin provides excellent clothing and their meat is considered to be far more than just a staple of the local diet, it is considered to have medicinal qualities. One of the facts we know about ringed seals is that they rarely come on land. They need ice to survive and as the ice breakup comes earlier, the young ringed seals become separated from their parents at an earlier age. In addition to this vulnerability, the seals will need to migrate to where the ice is. This may have negative repercussions for subsistence hunters. If the ringed seals are reduced in numbers, there will likely be a cascading effect on the entire food chain of the Arctic, especially on Polar Bears as seal is a mainstay of their diet. It is likely the ringed seals will continue a migration towards the pole as summer ice extent shrinks. If there is no ice in the Arctic during a portion of the year, the ringed seals will either adapt by hauling themselves out of the water or they could experience great difficulty. Whales When Intuit narwhal hunts that once provided 50 narwhal bring the community only 3 narwhal, everybody takes notice. Intuit and Dene people have noted an increase in the variability and unpredictability of seasonal climate patterns. In addition to unpredictable behaviour patterns, the health of wildlife is a large concern for the Intuit just as are the smaller harvests of narwhal. Narwhal are particularly sensitive to climate change because their migratory patterns revolve around ice flow patterns. As the ice breaks up earlier, their patterns also change. This combined with the increasing numbers of killer whales, which prey on narwhales, is putting pressure on narwhale populations. 48
  • 50. Inuit also believe narwhales are very sensitive to manmade noise, causing them to seek shallow water and remain immobile. This also makes them easier prey for killer whales. The combination of increased predation and the probability of increased manmade vessel traffic in the Arctic are likely to create increasing pressure on narwhale populations. Accelerated climate change is critical to the Intuit ability to undertake subsistence hunting and fishing, a way of life that has sustained their people for thousands of years (Krupnik & Jolly, 2002). In addition to the unusual migration patterns exhibited by wildlife, the Intuit themselves are finding it harder to use environmental indicators known for generations to predict weather and assist in hunting and travel over sea ice. These techniques are no longer working. Depending on circumstances, sometimes the ice is not thick enough to stand safely upon. As these and other factors sustain increased variability, Intuit prosperity through subsistence hunting has been diminished. Some aspects of life in the Arctic have started to change. For instance, the bowhead whales have been off limits for many decades because they were hunted nearly to the brink of extinction. Historically, the bowhead whales have provided much needed utilities for subsistence hunters including the best quality of oil for heat and light, the rib and jaw bones were traditionally used for roof supports, vertebrae for tools, and baleen could be used to lash together sleds. While it has been many decades since the Bowhead was hunted, there have been some controlled hunts in recent years. In the past, one bowhead might have provided enough for a small Intuit community to survive for an entire year. Beluga whales are also an important part of the Inuit culture and provide protein, iron, and omega 3 fatty acids. Beluga is an important source of food for the Inuit and can be found in greatest numbers in the high arctic and western arctic. While the numbers of Beluga are still 49
  • 51. strong and their vulnerability to climate change is not yet known, the one thing we do know is that they are susceptible to contaminants and pollution, and the meat of the beluga reveals growing levels of contamination. Caribou and Muskox Caribou have been an important part of the indigenous diet for millennia. The large herds have provided indigenous people with important sources of food and skins for clothing. "We don't know if the caribou are going to keep behaving the way they always did in the past. There is a lot of development that is going to happen on the land with mines and tourists coming to the new park [Auluetok National Park]. This will affect all of the caribou and mainly the females ready to calve. It could change the places they use during the year creating different patterns that will be hard for indigenous hunters to predict. The same thing will happen with the seals and whales or walrus because of the ships that will be coming to the north. Even Inuit will cause problems if our communities get too big and we make more noise or garbage and smells than before."(Grace M. Egeland, 2012) During an interview about climate change impact, a northern resident, Mr. Charlie Snowshoe, pointed out that recently, the Caribou had moved south towards their traditional calving grounds, but when the weather changed dramatically, warming the area, they began to return to more northern locations. The weather essentially impacted their sense of where they needed to be. This, in turn, created difficulties for the herd as the weather again changed and they were no longer in the right area for their calving season and they did not go back there. It was estimated this had a hugely negative impact on the caribou birth rate in the area that caused a significant decrease in herd population. 50
  • 52. Muskox live in certain portions of the Arctic and hunting them is limited. Although Muskox is an excellent source of food, the impact of climate change for Muskox could well be positive if predators are not increased in numbers. It is thought that increasingly warmer temperatures will provide Muskox with longer and greater access to their food sources, which could assist in their population growth. Salmon and Char Arctic char is generally considered a freshwater fish, although there are some that are seaborne and some that are landlocked freshwater char. They are a member of the salmon family and have been a staple of the Intuit for centuries. Char can be frozen, dried, smoked, aged, or cooked fresh. The versatility of Arctic char has made it an important part Arctic survival. How char will respond to climate change, however, is still largely unknown. Perhaps there will be unexpected challenges from migrating species. For example, in the waters near Pond Inlet some Pacific salmon have been harvested in nets along with char. Pacific salmon are rarely encountered east of Alaska in the Arctic, so landing them in Pond Inlet is an example of the migratory patterns and range changes that may have implications for local wildlife. Polar Bears Scientists undertaking regionalized studies in the Southern Beaufort area have examined to correlation between sea ice minimums and ice free periods have a correlative pattern that demonstrates survival and breeding probabilities decline with extended ice free periods (Regehr EV, 2010). Hunters in the area have extensive intrinsic knowledge of this. In collaboration with scientists, the local hunters contribute their own knowledge and as part of the indigenous stewardship, female polar bears with cubs are not taken during hunting. 51
  • 53. One question of interest relates to permanent emigration of Polar Bears, but radio telemetry studies show a high degree of fidelity to a specific territory. While extensive emigration has not been noted, there have been instances of bi-directional emigration of species. Indigenous people now believe there has been interbreeding between Polar Bears and Grizzly Bears, calling the offspring Pizzly Bears. There has not been enough research to determine if climate change has driven this phenomena or not, but there is observable evidence of this taking place. With Polar Bears dependent on ice for hunting, the rapid melting and extended ice free periods have been projected to assume a species extinction of Polar Bears by the year 2100, but it seems likely the species can adapt. Perhaps if adaptation takes place, part of that adaptation may be a result of the interbreeding between different bear species. Waterfowl and Birds Intuit hunters have long history of knowing when and where geese will return to their summer grounds. But in the last few years they have been reporting the seasons have changed. They once knew exactly what days they needed to arrive at a particular site to hunt. Now the geese are returning earlier and it is no longer easy for the hunters to know exactly when to go. This creates difficulties for the indigenous hunter along with nesting changes. Eggs from waterfowl and other birds are part of the Inuit diet. As Inuit hunters find the migratory patterns and ranges of various species of waterfowl and birds are changing, they will need to adapt to the changing patterns of migration. If the ranges change significantly, this will have very different consequences as part of the indigenous diet may be excluded because it may become too far for the Intuit to travel in order to secure it. Commercial Fishing 52
  • 54. As the ice free zone in the Arctic extends, there is an increasing availability to international zones, those areas outside of exclusive economic zones (EEZ). There is a very large area in the Arctic that falls outside the EEZ’s of the various Arctic nations. The area that falls outside of Arctic EEZ’s is commonly referred to as the Arctic doughnut hole. The Arctic doughnut hole is a vast area where international fishing may take place without having to be in compliance with any national laws, but rather, governed by international agreements. Unilateral actions may be taken by nations concerned about commercial overfishing in the Arctic by closing down their own territorial waters to commercial fishing. In 2009, the United States closed nearly all of the U.S. Arctic Ocean to commercial fishing with the support of Alaskan Native leaders, scientists, and the commercial fishing industry citing a need to gather sufficient information to understand the impacts of commercial fishing in the Arctic which is widely thought to be quite sensitive due to the relatively short food chain in comparison to tropical waters(Pew, 2013). PART IVARCTIC POLITICAL ECONOMY Arctic Political Economy – North America The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is very important for the circumpolar nations and the relevance goes well beyond shipping just as it applies to more than just circumpolar nations. The prospect of an ice free Arctic is very attractive for organizations that ship goods. It’s also important to organizations that are engaged in resource acquisition and exploitation in the circumpolar north. As nations move to stake their claim in the Arctic, international recognition of territory is undergoing considerable debate, these issues are based on extensions of continental shelves 53
  • 55. andupon exclusive economic zones (EEZ). Beneficiaries to the political processes will receive substantial economic opportunities, economic growth, and resource expansion. The intertwined fabric of politics and economics is, perhaps, as clear in the Arctic as any place on Earth, and in few locations in recent history, has more been at stake. The circumpolar nations recognize UNCLOS and although the United States has not ratified it, the United States does recognize it as a codification of customary international law. In other words, the United States follows the provisions of UNCLOS with certain noted exceptions. As demand for Arctic resources increases, the need for corporate interests to have clarity of ownership in the areas beyond current EEZ’s are increasingly important. When examining cultural relationships, the government remains cognizant of key economic drivers, sifting through the countless economic drivers to arrive at the ones which offer the greatest strategic advantages, typically focusing on the ones that offerenergy security and profound economic advantages. This process speaks to the main energy industrial complex of the region. The upstream energy industry complex is located, to some extent, in relative proximity to the circumpolar region. The ability to marshal supplemental energy infrastructure depends largely on geography. The more remote a site, the more difficult to get equipment, human resources, and various support materials to it. This can, however, be brought online with accessible transportation routes and Alaska is a great example with upstream capacity located in Anchorage and supported by infrastructure capacity in the continental United States, much of it in Texas. Canada, as a major player in the Arctic, has limited upstream infrastructure in the high Arctic and relies on Edmonton and Nisku as a gateway area for overland and airborne equipment and 54
  • 56. infrastructure capacity. Because of rail connections to the major port of Prince Rupert, the same area that Canada enjoys as an Asia Pacific Gateway can also be used as an Arctic Gateway for barge shipments. The economics of having upstream capacity fairly close (relatively speaking) to Arctic operations creates a significant advantage for various areas in Canada. For the high arctic regions of eastern Nunavut, Ontario and Quebec offer proximity. For the western arctic, Alberta's Capital Region, particularly Nisku and the Edmonton area have tremendous access to industrial scale operations, energy industry expertise, equipment manufacturing, pluslarge scale fabrication facilities. The Government of Canada recognizes the importance of the political economy of the Arctic and continues to invest in Arctic infrastructure while working in collaboration with the U.S. to map undersea extensions of the Canadian continental shelf. Once the extension claims are settled, the prospect of an ice free Arctic will bring along with it the propensity of business activities that had previously stayed away. Shipping is one of the more obvious components of an expanding Arctic Political Economy. Savings of time, fuel, and financial resources will help clarify the economic model of the Arctic as the distances between the Asian and European markets shrink dramatically due to an ice free Arctic. Quite naturally, climate change impacts are central to the discussion of economic opportunity. In Alaska, two items exist that are of paramount importance to the state. Alaska has a well invested permanent fund at 48 billion dollars, most of it a result of North Slope oil that filled the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). TAPS is currently operating at about 1/3 capacity; currently slightly over 600,000 barrels a day with TAPS finite capacity of 2.136 million barrels per 55
  • 57. day(USEIA, 2008). The appetite for new exploration and additional revenues grows as TAPS throughput diminishes, thereby compressing the economic prosperity of the State of Alaska. The overarching interest in Alaska now appears to be centered on expanding North Slopein addition to moving further offshore to gather hydrocarbon resources from the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. In addition to this tactic, Alaskans have been reaching out to Albertans to have a dialogue about building a pipeline to move Alberta synthetic crude via a pipeline that would run West from Alberta and work its way to join up with TAPS, which would fill the pipeline and reinvigorate the port activity at the port of Valdez. Given resistance to pipelines with the Government of British Columbia and numerous first nations on the proposed routes, it might be possible to shift the conversation further north into different political environments where the thought of pipeline construction may be far more readily accomplished. Naturally, pipelines are quite expensive and the less distance they must cover, the more cost effective it is for the developer and operator of the pipeline. But in thinking about a future further down the road, some argue that using a combination of a western pipeline, a U.S. pipeline, and an eastern pipeline would be sufficient to accommodate large scale operations to export synthetic crude oil. The western pipeline being one of the more challenging routes to secure, thinking outside the box and approaching pipeline infrastructure in a different manner might offer corporations a new way to move synthetic oil to thirsty Asian markets. Federal constraints in Alaska Federal Limitations on Alaska constrict the State of Alaska’s ability to explore due to environmental requirements complicated by federal environmental regulations. A stiff federal regulatory environment contrasts with a strong local appetite to open areas of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). 56
  • 58. While these regulations create some amount of palpable discord between energy exploration companies, other energy companies are starting to prepare a presence in Alaska in anticipation of improved economic and regulatory conditions relative to the exploration for Arctic oil. ExxonMobil has established a government and public relations presence and is closely monitoring the conditions that exist in the region. There is a ubiquitous sense of economic optimism that permeates the State of Alaska and especially the indigenous owned corporations that have considerable land holdings. Their ability to derive substantial economic benefit is weighed with their interests in preserving their traditional subsistence lifestyle and their traditions. The Arctic Imperative Summit is a unique forum where the indigenous people of Alaska have full participation and an equal voice, this development is supported by the President of Iceland as a new political/diplomatic framework that could be beneficial for all stakeholders. It is also seen as a viable and critical component of future developments in the eyes of the Government of Alaska as they have welcomed this collaborative model. Economic Opportunity Because Arctic sea ice minimums are likely to continue to retract, two specific conditions will present. First, the North Arctic route will become more navigable to large cargo vessels. Second, the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route will become more navigable to ocean going vessels. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made strong commitments to further develop Russia’s Arctic naval capacity(Nilsen, 2012). 57
  • 59. Figure 14 - Vladimir Putin Source: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/4779 Commercially, the prospect of shipping through the Arctic presents considerable economic advantages to shipping companies. In addition to commercial shipping, it is expected that Arctic tourism will continue to grow along with private navigation of these waters. Canada and Russia have the largest extent of Arctic coastal waters and possess considerable Arctic capabilities in oceanic and terrestrial based resources that include oil spill response (OSR) and search and rescue (SAR) assets. Substantial economic development is likely to move forward only with larger capital projects in order to have sufficient payouts. Due to tremendous expenses associated with Arctic development, the larger scales are required to properly incentivize capital investment. It’s widely thought larger shipping vessels would move through the Northern Sea Route. 58
  • 60. Figure 15 - Northern Route and Northwest Passage Source: http://www.unep.org/yearbook/2003/053.htm As these two options become increasingly viable due to minimum sea ice ranges, the effects of climate change will, as the sea ice minimum recedes, leave younger ice (less thick) and the process of ice recession will accelerate. As shipping routes become more viable, the net economic savings to shipping companies moving goods from the Asian markets and US markets to European markets will become attractive due to the reduced distances and reduction in transit fees through either the Suez Canal or Panama Canal depending on source of emanation. It is important to note, however, that a transitional period will determine commercial insurance costs. The ability of commercial shipping to attain insurance for Trans-Arctic transportation will play a key role in traffic counts. 59
  • 61. Figure 16–Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Asia Pacific / North America / Europe Governments have numerous priorities, included amongst those priorities is a responsibility to engage in the development of economic relationships that strengthen the ability of the various stakeholders to prosper. Certain countries have found enormous benefit of global access to markets. Exports from the Asian and Pacific Rim countries have grown at an accelerated rate in the last few decades of the twentieth century and continue strong growth patterns through the first dozen years of the twenty first century. In Alberta alone, the export market has risen 95% between 2002 and 2012 to 95.5 billion. The rest of Canada rose 5% over the same period. (Alberta, 2012). In 2012, approximately 70% of Alberta's exports came from the energy sector. The Asia Pacific region, including countries like China, India, Japan, and Korea, are becoming a leading source of foreign direct investment in 60
  • 62. Alberta. This trend is also pronounced in other areas of Canada, with a strong emphasis on growth in British Columbia. This is a regionalized viewpoint, stretching it further outward and both Canada and the United States stand to gain a great deal of energy resource and mineral wealth from Arctic development. Both countries stand to expand their EEZ’s and move further out into the Arctic. As these two nations continue to work with each other and collaborate with each other, their interests in the Arctic will have gain alignment through logical economies of scale and geographical advantages for collaborative partnerships. But there will be enormous engagement throughout the entire circumpolar world that will draw in more than just circumpolar nations. One of the key drivers will be an ice free Arctic which could dramatically grow the shipping through the Arctic in order to reduce shipping mileage from Asia to Europe. For Asia Pacific markets exporting to European markets, the opening of shipping routes through the Arctic benefits the Pan Asian and European regions due to their distances from each other’s market. The E.U. maintains a strong interest in Arctic policy and would benefit quite directly from the ability to export across the Arctic directly to Pan Asian markets. UNCLOS – USN & USCG Perspective The Navy and the Coast Guard support UNCLOS because it provides numerous benefits that enshrine, for example, the ability of the submarines to navigate international straights while submerged without having to obtain permission from other nations who may control that particular EEZ. This, in essence, creates an internationally enforceable access right that provides guarantees of the U.S. Navy’s ability to enjoy maximum navigational rights and freedoms in other national EEZ’s and on the high seas(U.S. Navy, n.d.). 61
  • 63. In addition, it enshrines the ability of the U.S. Coast Guard and U.S. Navy to board stateless vessels on the high seas; obviously necessary to protect national security and insure nonproliferation of controlled substances or weapons. In a speech by James A. Baker III at the Arctic Imperative Summit 2012, he recalled that theadministration of U.S. President George H.W. Bush (a.k.a. 41), was able to negotiate changes to provisions in UNCLOS that previousU.S. President Ronald Reagan had strongly objected to. UNCLOS was passed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the treaty was sent to the Senate, but it was not ultimately ratified. To this day, the U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard have a strong sense of support for UNCLOS, but as of the writing of this book, UNCLOS had not yet been ratified although the U.S. Secretary of State has testified positively for UNCLOS and so have previous Secretaries of State. One of the reasons for supporting UNCLOS ratification is that it would probably expand U.S. EEZ's through continental extensions that are massive and could possibly extend the EEZ in Alaska to over 600 miles in the Arctic alone. Another reason is to capture a U.S. seat at the table in the South China Sea(Bower & Poling, 2012) where the rising power continues to flex their muscles as they start to grow from a green water navy to a blue water navy. There are other strategic reasons for the U.S. government to prefer a ratification of UNCLOS, not the least of which is strategic positioning that would allow the United States to maintain submarine egress routes versus having no access at all. At some point, the national security issues will escalate the matter, along with the potential economic gains, to the forefront of the U.S. Senate where, in spite of some political ill will between parties, it may possibly make it through the Senate. 62
  • 64. Once UNCLOS has cleared the U.S. Senate by a 2/3 majority vote, it may then be sent to the President for signature and enactment. According to the known comments, it would be the intention of President Obama to sign and ratify the UNCLOS if it were given to him for signature. U.S. UNCLOS Issues - Undersea Mining and the International Seabed Authority In the United States, there are numerous arguments for and against the ratification of UNCLOS. James Baker III, former Chief of Staff to President Ronald Regan, at the Arctic Imperative Summit II, said that ―Reagan refused to sign UNCLOS primarily because of the seabed mining provisions, and it also required the United States to be subject to International Seabed Authority (ISA) rulings‖. It was felt theissues could result in a vast redistribution of wealth to the detriment of the United States. The former Chief of Staff and Secretary of State appreciated the President’s opinion and the U.S. Government felt that ISA rulings would not be very unfavourable to the United States, as such, they were not prepared to be subject to the authority of the ISA. At the time, it was also felt that if the United States were to ratify UNCLOS, it would be subject to ISA dispute resolution mechanisms that would, very likely, have beenvery bias against the interests of the United States. The politics of such a situation could result in immediately negative economic impacts, but might also harm the United States economic and technological ability to engage in deep sea mining. Security of tenure is required before corporations will, generally speaking, be willing to undertake vastly expensive undersea mining and hydrocarbon exploration in areas beyond the 200 mile EEZ. UNCLOS would provide clarity of EEZ definition on the basis of extensions of continental shelves, and this would create the security of tenure that corporations are looking for before they engage in exploration activities beyond well-defined EEZ areas. With the promise of UNCLOS providing the legal clarity for such entities, it has the allure of economic activity and economic 63
  • 65. growth. Until legal clarity surrounding undersea mining claims can be established, the level of uncertainty for corporate entities presents an unacceptable risk. Because UNCLOS recognizes extensions of continental shelves through undersea formations, the EEZ of the United States could be extended by UNCLOS, this is seen, especially by the State of Alaska, as a great way to extend their undersea mineral and hydrocarbon potential, with the promise of expanding economic activity. The circumpolar nations have either filed their claims for continental extensions or they are working on those claims, this includes the United States and Canada. Some people might ask why the United States would work on their claim to a continental shelf extension if there was no desire to ratify UNCLOS, and that would be a logical question. Perhaps the intention is to ratify UNCLOS on the part of the Executive Branch, and the rest is about the timing of the submission. The Kyoto Backdoor It has also been noted that Part XII Article 194, 3 (a)(UN, n.d.), of UNCLOS states: 3 The measures taken pursuant to this Part shall deal with all sources of pollution of the marine environment. These measures shall include, inter alia, those designed to minimize to the fullest possible extent: (a) The release of toxic, harmful or noxious substances, especially those which are persistent, from land-based sources, from or through the atmosphere or by dumping. In considering several things pointed out in the climate change section, particularly ocean acidification and the fact that the ocean is the largest carbon sink on Earth. Because this article is very clear that persistent land based sources that have toxic or noxious substances can clearly 64
  • 66. be applied to CO2, ratification of UNCLOS would be, according to the acceptance of the provisions of UNCLOS, bind the United States to CO2 targets by treaties such as Kyoto. While there is no language that binds signatories to UNCLOS directly to any atmospheric gas emission targets identified by Kyoto, it’s pretty obvious that as oceanic acidification accelerates, there will be pressure exerted to reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 forcing and thereby reduce pressure on the oceanic carbon sink. Lacking specific treaties or language, it is thought the obvious path to pursue would be accords and agreements such as those from Kyoto or Doha. The language is also such that one can make the argument it is designed to convey obligations to international agreements in the future. Arctic Rare Earth Elements, Hydrocarbons, and Minerals Arctic is a word that can be negotiated in many ways. One of my favorite interpretations of where the word Arctic came from is from the ancient Greeks. Their word for Arctic can be translated to ―Near the Bear.‖ For those who grew up during the Cold War, we might think of being ―Near the Bear‖ as being near Russia. Russia, quite obviously, has long had a huge presence in the Arctic. Russia is often represented by the image of the Bear. Accordingly, the interpretation of ―Near the Bear‖ somehow seems to span the centuries to appropriately land in the current day. When the ancient Greek's came up with the word, it seems likely that ―Arktiktos‖, for them, would have most likely been a reference to either (or both) of the constellations Ursa Major or Ursa Minor, which of course, stand for Big Bear and Little Bear. With a significant percentage of the world’s remaining hydrocarbon reserves located in the Arctic, and untold mineral wealth, the Arctic powers and those states with territorial claims have beeniterating their Arctic strategies. It is only logical that each strategy would be done in a 65
  • 67. manner most beneficial to each individual state, yet it is also true that they recognize their interconnectedness. In the Arctic circumpolar region, political and economic cooperation continues to grow and the level of inclusion of non-state players is arguably stronger than any other location on Earth. It’s important to have a scope of reference regarding how vast the resource potential is. Beyond the resource wealth we cannot possibly estimate, we do have some estimates vis-à-vis the potential size of the hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic. A survey completed by the US Geological Survey extrapolated the possible undiscovered conventional reserves in the Arctic to be approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,699 trillion cubic feet of gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids(Bird & Charpentier, 2008). The fuzzy estimate of total hydrocarbon reserves in the Arcticis thought to represent, more or less, about 23-25% of the remaining recoverable hydrocarbons on the planet. The minerals available for development in the Arctic are well known. Rare Earth Elements are lesser known but they are discussed. The Arctic is a land that is vast and largely unexplored in terms of this sort of mineralogy. There are mines for all kinds of things like diamonds, gold, and silver. Private companies have also been undertaking rare element exploration in the Arctic. Interesting finds include elements like lanthanum, which can be found in a vast myriad of products… not just the small miniaturized hand held computers and ubiquitous smart phones. Products such as the Toyota Prius, have a couple of kilograms of lanthanum in the nickel-metal hydride batteries… and the ―metal‖ in nickel-metal hydride is lanthanum, a rare earth element (REE). Lanthanum, evidently, provides a performance gain in the battery worthy of the REE investment. Toyota takes lanthanum seriously and has purchased a mine because due to current 66
  • 68. consumption rates, there is not enough supply in the global market place to assure Toyota’s supply chain of enough lanthanum to insure they can continue to produce the car model that accounts for almost 10% of Toyota sales. Other REE’s, such as samarium and neodymium are used for small magnets that provide storage for our music files so we can carry data around with us on a very small storage drive that fits neatly in our smart phone. Nobody knows precisely how REE development will proceed in the Arctic, but all stakeholders recognize there is considerable potential, even if it is difficult to pinpoint the reserves and project values. Like REE reserves, the full extent of mineral wealth of the Arctic has not yet been fully determined; this is especially true of Canada and Greenland. The most proliferous production of minerals currently occurs in the Russian Federation. Russia has been actively engaged in the development of Arctic natural resources since A.E. Fersman discovered huge deposits of urite and apatite in the early 20th Century. As a result, a rail line was built between Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) and Murmansk to ship resources to the Russian interior from the Kola Peninsula. Today, the Kola Peninsula still produces enormous mineral wealth and enjoys the ability to move product to the global markets by land or sea Economics of Transarctic Shipping Vancouver to Rotterdam: 10,262 miles via Panama Canal – 8,038 miles via Northern Sea Route Shanghai to Rotterdam: 12,107 miles via Suez Canal – 9,297 miles via Northern Sea Route Yokohama to Rotterdam: 12,894 via Suez Canal – 8,452 miles via Northern Sea Route The Northern Sea Routepassage is used in this comparison for two reasons. First, the Northern Sea Route is a deep draft passage capable of facilitating the largest cargo ships in the World. 67
  • 69. The northwest passage is considerably more difficult to navigate, it is less predictable in terms of ice flow, and its also shallower. This creates a requirement to use smaller vessels with smaller draft requirements. Smaller vessels reduce the economic advantage for cost per ton of cargo, creating an offset equation versus time and distance savings. Economic models, of course, will be impacted by the insurance industry. The impact of insurance rates upon transarctic shipping will be one of the larger variables in the economic matrix over which there is some degree of control. The relative risks associated with transarctic shipping will continue to be evaluated and re-evaluated. As the price of insurance for transarctic shipping declines, the economic models will correspondingly improve. In addition, the ability to render assistance to distressed shipping through things such as SAR/OSR requirements will need to expand in order to reduce perceived political risk. Capacity to conduct SAR/ORS and recovery operations are also beneficial for insurance risk evaluations. As clarity regarding continental shefextensions improves, it is likely the nations active in the Arctic will expand their political and economic presence. Some will supplement that with military and civilian profile expansions in the region. All of these things will contribute to transarctic shipping, a transportation modality that will become increasingly attractive from an economic standpoint. Arctic Gateways of North America The Summit was held in Anchorage because it is a major gateway to the Arctic for the United States; it’s also right next to Canada and Russia. Alaskans are proud of pointing out the only reason the United States has a prominent seat at the Arctic table is because of Alaska. Canada is there because of her vast amount land and Arctic coastline, counting for about 25% of the polar offshore seas and over 162,000 kilometers of Arctic shoreline(Bent, 2012). 68
  • 70. For Canada, the Western Canadian Arctic Gateway is Edmonton. It is through Edmonton where both overland and air traffic make their last stop in a major city before heading into the high Arctic. The equipment and manpower resources for the energy industry of Western Canada are also located in the Edmonton area, primarily in Nisku, which is effectively the second largest business park in the World. These facilities enjoy rail, road, and air nodes. Currently, there exists an interesting nexus of influence in Canada. In Alberta’s Capital Region, a historical relationship goes hand in hand with the history of economic growth and technological change in the Arctic. Edmonton has long acted as a gateway to the high Arctic. From the days of the fur traders to the Klondike rush, millions have made their way through the Capital Region in search of the vast wealth of the far north. The rate of private flight seat growth to the NW Canadian Arctic has doubled in Edmonton. They depart from the Edmonton International Airport (EIA), and more growth continues as mining and energy exploration growth continues to shift large amounts of economic resources to the north. Much of it will go to the development of oilsands. A growing portion will go to the Arctic andeconomic infusion potential for Canada and the Arctic Gateway will continue to grow. A fortuitous positioning at the Arctic Gatewayhappily combines with a strong nexus of access to global economies and the largest inland energy industry port in Canada. While the NWT and Yukon are primary players in the development of Western Arctic resources, other provinces continue to prosper from their own positioning. From Eastern access routes through Ontario and Quebec to the developments that impact Manitoba near the Hudson’s Bay, there are numerous avenues for transnational economic growth and prosperity. Like any development of this scope, the economic impacts will be felt right across the nation. Accordingly, development and economic growth in the Arctic are growing in importance at all 69
  • 71. levels of government. At the federal level, the implications extend beyond economic growth and development and require strategic positioning from a national security standpoint. Canada continues to build a federal presence in the Arctic in order to maintain control over the vast Canadian Arctic area and provide critical infrastructure required to maintain safety and security. Military, coastal protection, security, and emergency response resources continue to be in important part of the Canadian strategic growth in the Arctic. These activities are supplemented with various federal research activities in the high Arctic. Asia Pacific Gateway Shifting economies have shapedand defined global business patterns in North America. Business growth in countries like China has influenced trading patterns with pan Asian trading nations. Immigrationmobility and labor force movements from countries throughout Asia have created new immigration patterns not only in those nations, but also within the nations they trade with. As diversity and complexity increases, a shift towards a focused effort that combines with a strategy to drive economic growth while elevating cultural benefit is often toutedas the road map for maximum overall benefit. This is presumed for different levels of government within nations as much as it is presumed for the nation states themselves. As guidance shifts from the government shaping the manner in which organizations view their future, further alignment with operational goals and vested strategic direction will be accelerated by strengthening economic and cultural ties across the many spectrums of the economy. This, in turn, moves greater diversity into the global labor force as knowledge workers take portable skills throughout the region. Throughout this period of growth, increased energy supplies have begun to outstrip the projected stability of energy resources throughout the pan Asian nations, creating a strategic need to 70
  • 72. acquire some form of access to long range energy supplies not only as a matter of continued economic growth, but also as a matter of national economic security. As Asian economic growth has continued, so too has the ever longer reach of their energy acquisition strategies. This will continue to be an increasingly central tenant of the national security policies of the Asian nations. With massive trading surpluses and ready access to substantial financing, the Asian nations have joined with other wealthy nations to seek their growth potential by securing foreign energy supplies. This has created increasing political debate regarding the national interest of national policies regarding foreign direct investment. This is particularly evident in Canada as the Chinese government seeks to increase their ownership over oilsands and gas fields while the Canadian government must find an acceptable mixture of economic advancement and accelerated growth with the infusion of foreign direct investment and balance that with the need to preserve trading and political relationships with large national interests that may have differing political objectives. Failure to find the correct mix may detract foreign direct investments required to continue the economic growth of the Canadian economy in a manner consistent with the overall objectives and needs of the federal and provincial governments. Like most resource rich nations, Canada relies on the expansion of the harvesting and sale of resources in order to maintain the orderly growth in the economy. When resource prices fall on the global market or the amount of resources available for sale are compressed or do not grow, the impact to the national economy is real and profound. The importance of the Asian Gateway is clearly understood in Canada. In the Province of Alberta, the need to secure new ways to export oil to the Asian markets means a great deal to the Government of Alberta and, by default, the rest of Canada as well. Currently, most of Canada’s 71
  • 73. oil is exported to the United States at a price considerably lower than the international price for the commodity, and the United States is growing their oil production in the Bakken play at an astounding rate, projecting to become a net exporter of oil within a matter of a decade, possibly less. In addition to the vulnerability to any economic slowdowns in the United States, which hit Canada especially hard since their vast majority of trade is with the United States. The second vulnerability is sliding prices for the commodity that constitutes Canada’s largest value export. Quite obviously, under any lens, itis important for the Canadian economy to diversify in order to retain value and create additional markets that may act as a hedge against economic slowdown in any one country… especially the one country Canada trades the most with. Part of the solution is perceived to be pipeline transport of hydrocarbons from Alberta to the Pacific coast. There are other methods that can be considered, such as rail shipment, but the most efficient and safest method to transport is through pipelines. This, of course, has been met with environmental concerns and requires considerable political positioning with the governments of British Columbia and Alberta. The Northern Gateway pipeline is slated to carry approximately 525,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta to the Pacific coast. If some form of pipeline or efficient transportation mechanism is not found for Alberta’s vast oil resources, the conventional thinking is that the remaining option is to move the hydrocarbons north through the Mackenzie Valley to the Arctic. Facing numerous challenges, shipping over a half a million barrels of oil a day through the Arctic would present not only extremely complex engineering tasks, but it would also represent a considerable risk to a very sensitive marine environment. This argument, however, is equally marshaled by those who steward the Pacific coast. This is a dilemma that has implications for the global economy and environmentally sensitive areas. 72
  • 74. Arctic Gateway The Arctic Gateway represents a new strategic direction for the ―Southerners‖, meaning the people of the Arctic nations who live well below the Arctic Circle. In Canada, that is a huge population that comprises more than 90% of the entire country. There are many cultural connections that already exist between the people of the Arctic and Southerners. There are initiatives throughout the Southern regions to obtain a certain level of cultural expertise to draw upon relative to the Arctic; this has been undertaken in anticipation of a large economic expansion. It also functions as a unique base that may be drawn upon as Arctic development moves forward. Continued collaboration between different levels of government in conjunction with the Arctic governments shall continue to play a role in critical Arctic Affairs. The combination of government alignment and stakeholder alignment amplifies the drive to develop the economic resources of the Arctic. This kind of collaboration creates a very potent dynamic. As these collaborations continue, there will come a point when the critical momentum of Arctic development shall begin to feed on itself. Regional corporations such as Inuvaliuit, Olgoonik, Ukpeagvik, Arctic Slope, and Nana corporations have long established relationships and contacts that extend from Greenland to Nunavut and from Alaska to Russia. It’s is a rare opportunity for such a proliferation of cultural and corporate relationships to exist, yet the relationships exist and continue to flourish. Indigenous knowledge is a precious commodity. It is the strong base of people within the region who have extensive knowledge of the Arctic along with policy drivers that seek alignment. Intersections between Indigenous knowledge are a precious commodity. It is the strong base of 73
  • 75. people within the region who have extensive knowledge of the Arctic along with policy drivers that seek alignment and intersections between indigenous knowledge, public policy, and government strategy that creates benefits within the Arctic Gateway and beyond. Economic growth will continue to further amplify the synergistic nexus of Arctic influence in the Arctic Gateway areas and in global environments. As economic development continues to grow, the established organizations within the Arctic Gateway will be seen as having a strong experiential base. But it may be even more important that relationships developed throughout the Arctic Gateways and the Arctic will be seen as high value components by those entities wanting to establish or extend their operations in the Arctic. In short, the organizations that emphasize the development of good and extensive relationships throughout the Arctic and the Arctic Gateway will be well positioned to prosper because of these highly critical yet delicate relationships that need to be cultivated in a challenging, yet economically promising Arctic operational environment. PART VARCTIC COUNCIL Permanent Participants The First Nations and Indigenous people of the circumpolar region maintain permanent participation roles on the Arctic Council. They must represent a single indigenous people resident in more than one Arctic State or more than one Arctic indigenous people resident in a single Arctic State in order to maintain their permanent participation role. Politically, the governments of the permanent participation indigenous people have reservations about bringing more nations into permanent observer status because there is concern that additional powerful nation states at the table will tend to eclipse their presence.The Arctic Imperative Summit has acted as in 74
  • 76. inspirational forum that supports full participation of the indigenous people at the decision table. The Icelandic President made the observation that the Arctic Council is recognized my many nations around the World as a body where the indigenous people have a strong voice, where they are able to collaborate with the circumpolar nations and have their input both heard and respected in a collaborative manner. There exists a history of trust issues between the indigenous people of the far north in the United States; this is also true of Canada. The ability of the indigenous people to have an authoritative role in the development of the land they have lived on for thousands of years is embraced by the Arctic Council and by the Arctic Imperative Summit. There are also enormous knowledge assets to be gained by full indigenous participation insomuch as their knowledge of the land, the sea, and the wildlife is vast. These underlying realities color the political situation that exists in the Arctic of Canada and the United States. The Arctic Council was formally established by the Ottawa Declaration in 1996 and consists of member states, permanent observer states, and ad-hoc observer states. The council was established to provide an international forum for circumpolar states to work on measures that concern the Arctic. Beyond the cooperation and forum potential, as Arctic issues continue to grow in global importance, political and economic issues such as shipping, search and rescue, plus climate change and matters related to energy and resource exploration will grow in importance to all stakeholders of the Arctic Council. Ostensibly, the Arctic Council was not intended to become a wide ranging multinational governance body with global participation. The reality, however, is that considerable interest is developing relative to Arctic matters. To the extent the organization may remain in a unique position globally, it will continue to prosper and gradually elevate the importance of the voice of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council elevates its importance and ability to influence what transpires in the areas of the Arctic that are beyond the 75
  • 77. continental extensions of nations states is precisely because of the unique mix of stakeholders, extending across nation state borders, such as the Athabaskan People. Until recently, the Arctic Council did not have a Permanent Secretariat, a factor that was widely seen as important to the future of the Council. The first director for a standing Arctic Council Secretariat in Tromsø has been presented at the SAO meeting in Haparanda. Magnús Jóhannesson, will assume the first permanent director position. Mr. Jóhannesson will be assuming this role moving over from his current role as the Secretary General of the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources of Iceland. The site of the future standing Arctic Council Secretariat will be located in Tromsø, Norway(Arctic Council, 2012). Arctic Athabaskan Council The Arctic Athabaskan Council is comprised of Canadian and American First Nation Governments and is a permanent participant in the Arctic Council. Their people range from Alaska through the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and British Columbia. The Arctic Athabaskan Council covers people from a vast territory that crosses international borders, like all permanent participants, they enjoy full consultation rights. Figure 17 - Athabaskan People Source: http://www.arcticathabaskancouncil.com/aac/?q=node/5 The Athabaskan Council represents Americans and Canadians. 76
  • 78. Permanent participant status is accorded to the Arctic Athabaskan Council because they may be considered a single indigenous people resident in more than one nation state. The Arctic Athabaskan Council represents people from an area over three million square miles, speaking twenty three different languages. The Athabascan people have continuously inhabited vast areas of the Arctic for over ten thousand years; they have governance representatives in the United States and Canada. Aleut International association The Aleut International Association (AIA) represents Russian and American Aleut people. The Aleut have traditionally lived in the North Pacific and Bearing Sea for thousands of years. The Aleut International Association was formed to steward cultural and environmental matters. They traditionally live in the North Pacific and Bearing Sea. In addition to the obvious fishery resources, there are many other economic areas of interest represented by the AIA through a board of four Russian and American Aleut’s and a President. Though separated by the legal boundaries and two nations, the Aleut have stood for millennia before their respective nation states existed. Gwich’in Council International Founded in Inuvik, the Gwich’in Council International represents people from Canada and the United States. The Gwich’in participation includes socio-economic matters, issues related to climate change and environmental stewardship, and preservation of the culture and traditions. The Gwich’in Council International represents people from the Northwest Territories, Yukon, and Alaska.International representation brings the Gwich’in their permanent status at the Arctic Council and allows their contribution of thousands of years of knowledge, like to other permanent observers, to be shared with the Arctic Council. 77
  • 79. Inuit circumpolar council The Inuit Circumpolar Council represents a broad spectrum of nation states at the Arctic Council including the Inuit of the United States, Canada, Greenland, Denmark, and Russia. In addition to enjoying Permanent Participant status at the Arctic Council, the Inuit Circumpolar Council also enjoys Consultative Status II at the United Nations. Their goals are to strengthen Inuit relations on the circumpolar level and provide a strong voice for the Intuit people at all levels of the international organizations they participate with. Russian Association of Indigenous peoples of the north The Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North represents forty one groups of indigenous peoples totalling over 270,000 and most of whom live throughout the Russian Federation territory from Murmansk to Kamchatka. The Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples participates with the United Nations Economic and Social Council and they have special consultative status on the United Nations Governing Council and Global Ministerial Environment Forum. Members of the Association are also members of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation. Saami council The Saami Council is made up of Saami from Finland, Norway, Sweeden, and Russia and was organized for a number of reasons, amongst which is the representation of economic, social, and cultural rights in the legislative bodies of the four nation states where they reside. In addition to this organizational goal, the Saami have attained permanent participation status on the Arctic Council. 78
  • 80. COUNCIL MEMBERS Russian Federation The Russian Federation has, by far, the most extensive polar class infrastructure complimented by over a dozen polar class ice breakers. During the Cold War with the United States, the U.S. strategy of containment probably played a role in how the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) viewed their Arctic strategies. Certain decisions to invest in Arctic ports and ice breaking capacity have returned a post Cold War dividend to the Russian Federation. As part of the U.S.S.R.strategy to project blue water naval forces sufficient to exert global power and provide the fleet with access to the high seas, the Northern Fleet received tremendous investment. This resulted in a strong Northern Fleet infrastructure during the time of the USSR. Although it was not of the stature of the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets initially, the Northern Fleet grew and began extensive circumpolar navigation operations during the Cold War. Subsequently, the Russian Federation retains beneficial positioning insomuch as the naval forces have extensive polar experience, large infrastructure exists, and the northern sea route is seen as the most attractive route for commercial shipping. The Russian Federation naval forces operate two thirds of their nuclear fleet in the Barents Sea and maintain several naval bases. The economics of this are substantiated by significant population centers in the high arctic of the Russian Federation. Because there are considerable population centers in the Russian Arctic, it becomes more practicable to economically sustain a larger force in the far north. The recent political story is the Russian Federation positioning for hydrocarbon and mineral wealth by extension of their EEZ through claims of continental shelf extensions, namely, through their claims on the Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge. 79
  • 81. The Russian Federation claims over 460,000 square miles of Arctic waters with the argument this area was an extension of their continental shelf through the two undersea ridges. The United Nations has not agreed with the claim of the Russian Federation, but this did not prevent the Russian Federation from making the highly symbolic gesture of planting a Russian Federation flag on the sea floor to substantiate their claim. United States With considerable energy reserves, the Naval Petroleum Reserve – Alaska (NPR), established in 1923 by President Warren G. Harding when the U.S. Navy was converting from a coal fired Navy to oil powered vessels. The land was placed in reserve under the ownership of the U.S. Government and later transferred to the U.S. Department of the Interior. Now managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), over 1.5 million acres have been leased. Some of the land has been opened for leases have been contested by the State of Alaska to protect environmentally sensitive lands. Considerable reserves may be recovered offshore in the Chuckchi Sea and Shell Oil is currently drilling three exploratory wells under the most stringent safety controls arguably in the World. In addition to the NPR, the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) contains substantial reserves. Located on the northeast corner of Alaska, ANWR is a major wildlife refuge for especially sensitive species including those upon which indigenous populations have traditionally harvested for subsistence. The ability to explore for hydrocarbons has been met with considerable opposition from environmental groups and indigenous people. Alaska has very large hydrocarbon resources available, yet they have major issues to contend with including conservation, harsh Arctic conditions, extensive regulation, and numerous stakeholders who do not always agree. 80
  • 82. The reason for the American presenceon the Arctic Council and their position with the group of circumpolar powers is summed up in one word, Alaska. Due to the good fortune of the Seward land purchase, Alaska and her resources became part of the United States. Alaska has been an active Arctic hydrocarbon producer with extensive fields of the North Shore. TAPS, however, is currently running at about 600,000 barrels a day and declining. There is political pressure to start exploring for oil in more areas and the prospect of economic development has a certain appeal to the indigenous people, but the situation is anything but resolved. Additional concerns surround the possibility of offshore spills, OSR capacity, and the potential for irreparable damage to sensitive marine life. Meanwhile, the State of Alaska is seeking a viable path to fill TAPS back up, moving both capacity and revenue in a beneficial financial direction for Alaska. Canada Canada has recognized the vast importance of the Arctic punctuated by annual visits by the Prime Minister as a symbolic act. In addition, the growth of Arctic capable SAR/OSR, and military assets are designed to support the sovereign claims of Canada in the Arctic. Canada also has the unique position of having a large Inuit population that stretches across the Arctic. In May of 2013, the Chair of the Arctic Council transitioned from Sweden to Canada as Nunavut's Leona Aglukkaq became the first Inuk person ever to lead the Arctic Council; she took over from Sweden’s Foreign Minister Carl Bildt during a ceremony in Kiruna, Sweden. While it marks Canada’s chairmanship of the Council, it is also a source of great pride for the indigenous people of the Arctic since this is the very first time an indigenous person will lead the Council.Aglukkaq began by sharing her focus for building sustainable communities and developing economic resources. 81
  • 83. From the time of the Defense Early Warning Line (DEW line), Canada and the United States have shared military assets and collaborated closely in the Arctic. The people of both nations interact with each other in the high Arctic, ANWR borders Canada, and the continued collaboration takes a variety of shapes from ice breaking duties to search and rescue. With extensive petroleum reserves known to exist in the Canadian Arctic, the government of Canada has proceeded with the development of a stronger Arctic policy. The United Nations will resolvedisputed claims related to continental shelf extensions and exclusive economic zones will be a matter of contention, with the Russian Federation, Greenland (Denmark), and Canada staking their claims in the Arctic. Canada has also enjoyed strong indigenous support internationally, with the kind words from the Mayor of the Barrow Borough, for the appointment of Leona Aglukaq to be the Canadian representative to the Arctic Council. In addition to the indigenous people of Alaska, Canada enjoys the praise of other circumpolar nations for the appointment of an indigenous person to assume leadership role for Canada during the period of Canadian leadership of the Arctic Council. Canada operates 3 polar class ice breakers, numerous smaller arctic class vessels, and continues to patrol the far north with military forces and Canadian Rangers who are indigenous people who patrol the high Arctic. The Government of Canada continues to forge ahead with development of Arctic policy while placing the interests of national security, the environment, and the indigenous people in a mixture of responsible decision making that outlines the perspective of the Government of Canada and the Canadian people of the high Arctic. Iceland By far the smallest of the circumpolar nations with barely a corner of Icelandic territory nipping the Arctic Circle, Iceland is home to one of the great champions of the Arctic, President Olafur 82
  • 84. Grimsson. Very few leaders have ever been more instrumental in bringing a noble cause to light across the World. The Icelandic President clearly ranks as a visionary person, but he also has introduced very important concepts and observations upon which successful Arctic policy can be based. The Icelandic President has noted the critical importance of full indigenous participation in the Arctic, singling out the Arctic Council as a dynamic and unique body that not only serves the Arctic, but also provides the only environment where the United States and Russian meet in a collaborative environment without the extended participation of many nations that could introduce their individual agenda to the dialogue. Iceland, while very much invested and prospering with environmental leadership and political goodwill, still looks to the sea as a source of income. The Iceland fishing industry is second in the North Atlantic only to Norway, and accounts for a large portion of Iceland’s exports, posting well over a quarter of Iceland’s overall export income. Norway Norwegian success in managing their offshore reserves is staggering by any standard of measure. The Norwegian people decided to invest their oil revenues from offshore oil production and to continue to pass along the costs of government through taxation without dipping into their energy income. This has resulted in having an investment fund rapidly approaching a value of 800 billion dollars, this compares to 48 billion in the Alaska Permanent fund and about 12 billion in the Alberta Heritage fund (as of 2012). Norway is dedicated to the object that the circumpolar nations should focus on settling their disputes over the resource laden Arctic in a peaceful manner. Norway recognizes that the North 83
  • 85. Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intends to be more active in the Arctic and Russia is becoming increasingly vocal about additional military deployments in the Arctic. As the Norwegian oil reserves in the North Sea begin to draw down, Norway will be need to look for economic diversification and their share of the Arctic, while not huge, can still have a significant impact. Because Norway is very active with the Arctic Council and other forums like the Arctic Imperative Summit and the emerging Arctic Circle, it’s pretty safe to expect Norway will pay close attention to the various Arctic pathways for their own future. Hydrocarbon and hydrocarbon technologies have been very lucrative for Norway, they have prospered. The Norwegian presence at Arctic and other circumpolar events will likely remain an important core of their identity. Sweden Sweden chaired the Arctic Council until it handed over the chair to Canada in May of 2013 at the Meeting in Kiruna. Protecting indigenous heritage and health has been important to all circumpolar nations, Sweden has chaired the Arctic Council just as it starts to occupy a major role in the center of global politics and is emerging as a major feature of foreign policy for not only circumpolar nations, but for the entire World. As has been pointed out by many interested parties, there was no permanent Secretariat for the Arctic Council. With the transfer to Canada, it was widely though that Sweden would continue to work to attain a permanent secretariat. This was seen as something that would enhance the global role of circumpolar nations and enhance overall Arctic importance. It was also required to create the continuity required to undertake the substantial work that remains in front of the Arctic Council. 84
  • 86. Sweden and Norway, having a closely intertwined history, worked very hard with other Council members to attain a permanent secretariat, a move forward for the Arctic Council that was helped along by Sweden while it chaired the council. Finland When Finland dispatched their Ambassador to the Arctic Imperative Summit they were sending a message to the World, that the Arctic is critically important to Finland. Finland strongly advocated for a permanent secretariat, as did Sweden. Finland also has an interest in European Union participation. Currently, the E.U. has ad-hoc observer status. Finland, like the other Scandinavian nations, finds themselves in a geographical and geopolitical position where they prosper when they are able to collaborate with all the circumpolar nations. This, of course, could be complicated unless there is a continuing strong commitment to peaceful and meaning collaboration amongst the circumpolar nations. Finland has about a quarter of their country north of the Arctic circle, although may areas in the southern part of Finland enjoy more modest climates due the gulf stream. Finland shares borders with other circumpolar nations and has long been a strong advocate for Arctic matters. Denmark Denmark has a significant interest in the Arctic just like the other circumpolar nations. Denmark has a very interesting position because their largest presence on the circumpolar map is through Greenland. But Greenland, with a population that is mostly Intuit, probably shares more in common with the Canadian Arctic than with Denmark. Denmark continues to support Greenland financially as the national government of Greenland. It is difficult to predict precisely what will happen with the relationship between Denmark and Greenland, but that will color the nature of the relationship Denmark has. It is likely that close 85
  • 87. ties will remain between Greenland and Denmark for the foreseeable future, but another interesting aspect of Greenland is the large Intuit population. Clearly, given the proximity to the Intuit population of Canada, it is likely one of the closest ties external to the long lasting relationship with Denmark may well be the Intuit population of Canada. Arctic Council Observer Status With the introduction of observer status, the role of the Arctic Council has started to become more visible on the global stage, this has been accelerated due to the rapid changes in Arctic climatology and the geopolitical ramifications of an ice free Arctic. Non Arctic Observers of the Arctic Council FRANCE UK NETHERLANDS GERMANY SPAIN POLAND Intergovernmental and Inter-parliamentary International Federation of Red Cross & Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Nordic Council of Ministers (NCM) Nordic Environment Finance Corporation (NEFCO) North Atlantic Marine Mammal Commission (NAMMCO) Standing Committee of the Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region (SCPAR) United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN-ECE) 86
  • 88. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Non Governmental Organizations (NGO) Advisory Committee on Protection of the Seas (ACOPS) Arctic Circumpolar Gateway Association of World Reindeer Herders (AWRH) Circumpolar Conservation Union (CCU) International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) International Arctic Social Sciences Association (IASSA) International Union for Circumpolar Health (IUCH) International Work Group for Indigenous Affairs (IWGIA) Northern Forum (NF) University of the Arctic (UArctic) World Wide Fund for Nature-Global Arctic Program (WWF) Applicants for Observer Status Numerous countries are applicants for Observer Status within the Arctic Council. The EU, Italy, Japan, and China have been ad-hoc observer states. The Council approves member states for permanent observer status. Observer states typically receive invitations for most of the Council meetings, but they do not typically function with working groups, although this is likely to change. This is because of the immense importance of the evolving realities vis-à-vis transoceanic shipping, military, and resource acquisition strategies in the doughnut hole of the Arctic. The 87
  • 89. Arctic doughnut hole is the area that falls beyond the limit of the continental shelf of the circumpolar nation states and has vast resources available. In addition to the ability to participate in the development and shaping of policies that may have impact upon international access to Arctic resources, there are powerful economic drivers, mainly due to access to Arctic transshipment lanes, which would save many nations tremendous expenses in accessing large markets traditionally served by non-Arctic shipping routes. For the Arctic Council, this represents in interesting situation whereby increased interest in the Council, while equating to greater influence for the organization, also represents the potential to increase the complexity of the organization and, in the long run, potentially create a bureaucratic environment that may be less effective. At the very least, the increasing interest in the Arctic and the growing number of applications for Observer status indicate a need for amplified budgets to sustain appropriate permanent infrastructure and organizational support for the Arctic Council. In the May 2013 session, the NGO’s such as the Association of Oil and Gas Producers along with Greenpeace were denied observer status by the Council Members. In addition, the European Union was also denied due to their ban on seal products. This was considered the only main reason why the EU should be banned, citing the EU’s position on seal products being largely based on political pressures from animal rights groups rather than being based on observable scientific facts. China, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Italy were all granted observer status. China The government of China is understandably interested in Arctic affairs. Due to the growth of the Chinese economy and global trading interests, it is logical that China would take a very direct 88
  • 90. interest in the Arctic, particularly the prospect of commercial shipping. China has invested in a polar class research vessel and a polar class icebreaker. During the last few years, the Chinese polar class vessels have spent time in the Arctic and have carried out diplomatic missions as well. In August of 2012, the Chinese ice breaker crew was hosted by Icelandic President Grimsson. Figure 18 - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao meets with Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson At the 2nd Arctic Imperative Summit, President Grimsson of Iceland noted the Chinese have paid Iceland numerous high level visits over the last few years while circumpolar nations with a more direct interest such as the United States have not done the same. In April of 2012, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Icelandic President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson in Reykjavik for bilateral discussions(China, 2012). This was followed up with the first visit of a Chinese Polar Class Icebreaker, the Xuelong, to Iceland in August of 2012(China, 2012). The Government of Norway, while initially supportive of granting the Chinese Permanent Observer Status, has since cooled in their viewpoint. Because the Nobel Prize was awarded to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo, an individual the Chinese government considers to be a criminal, diplomatic 89
  • 91. relations between China and Norway have cooled(AFP, 2012). Until the Chinese and Norwegians are able to mend their political row, it would conceivably be rather difficult for Norway to fully support Permanent Observer status for China. Italy The Italian government has declared a strong interest in the Arctic. This is, in part, probably reflective of the energy exploration partnership between Russia’s Rosneft and Eni, Italy’s largest industrial corporation(RT, 2012). ENI is partially owned by the government of the Italian Republic. The Italian Republic owns approximately a 30% interest in combination with the Italian state treasury and the Cassa depositi e prestiti, an Italian bank that is approximately 70% owned by the Italian treasury. In other words, the Italian government has a direct interest in Arctic hydrocarbon exploration and their interests in the Arctic would be largely centralized on that investment although it would also be beneficial for any EU nation to benefit from the shorter import/export routes offered by the Arctic. Japan Japan’s interest in the Arctic arises from an economy that requires the importation of an enormous amount of foreign based energy feedstock. Although it is true that Japan has considerable capacity for nuclear power generation, other feedstock vital to the Japanese economy, such as liquid natural gas (LNG), must be acquired from international sources. Here again, reduction in transoceanic shipping routes via the Arctic are exceptionally attractive for the Japanese. It should be noted, however, that Japan consumes an enormous percentage of the global fish production. It has been stated that Japan consumes one of every ten fish eaten. 90
  • 92. Japan also engages in whaling. The doughnut hole of the Arctic, if navigable to fishing vessels, would likely seem extraordinarily attractive to Japanese commercial fishing interests. Japan also engages in polar research and has had an extensive history of interest in the area of methane hydrate production. It would seem likely that Japan has a strong interest in the Arctic as an area where potentially vast amounts of methane could be acquired, international fuel shipment routes could be enhanced, and of course, their ongoing gastronomic interest in fish and whale stocks. Republic of Korea The Republic of Korea holds similar interests in the Arctic that may be quite similar to those of Japan.Korea is second only to Japan in imports of LNG. South Korea already has polar class vessels and an Arctic research program. The Korean Gas Company (KOGAS) has a 20% stake in the Umiak 31 SDL gas field estimated to hold over 328 bcf of gas. With this stake in the gas fields near the massive gas deposits of the Mackenzie Valley, the largest question is centered on transport. Here again, the Koreans are thinking in terms of building icebreaking and transport vessels capable of moving LNG through multi-year ice. It is within the realm of the Koreans to build polar class LNG transport vessels and icebreakers capable of dealing with multiyear ice. Samsung Heavy Industries have already built three such icebreakers for Russia’s Sovcomflot shipping company. Korea is probably mostly interested in the economic and scientific opportunities of the Arctic plus their ability to take a leading role in constructing polar class vessels(Bennett, 2011). Korea established research station Dasan at the Ny Alesund andhas been actively engaged in research on issues relating to climate and marine species ecology. Singapore 91
  • 93. Singapore made application to become a permanent observer after the Arctic Council’s rules of procedure from May of 2011. As such, Singapore does not attend Council meetings or working groups of the council as an ad hoc observer. The changes toward a direction of inclusivity of non Arctic nations if they are able to meet the criteria adopted at the May 2011. Singapore rests their application upon their maritime interests, their position as a hub port, and their industrial interests as leading marine engineering technology center. The case of Singapore is supported in a very important way by having an interest in the Arctic and expertise relevant to the work of the council(Council, 2011). India In 2007, India established the research station Himadri at Ny Alesund. The Himadri research station operates as an office of the Indian National Centre for Antarctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR), part of India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences. India has undertaken seven expeditions to the Arctic. India has placed orders for a dedicated vessel specifically designed for polar expeditions and was expected to join NCAOR. India also conducts research in the Antarctic and, as such, brings important expertise sets that span the Antarctic and the Arctic(India, n.d.). India also enjoys support from the President of Iceland due to the important perspectives India brings as a nation with vast glacial resources in the Himalayas, tying in the AHA concept. European Union The EU has a considerable economic and political interest in the Arctic. At first blush, the obvious economic drivers are applicable across the breadth of the EU, but they also make a strong claim in terms of geographical positioning. Denmark (Greenland), Finland, and Sweden have Arctic territories; Iceland and Norway are members of the European Economic Area, and Canada, Russia and the United States are strategic partners with the EU. 92
  • 94. There is little doubt the EU represents a large political entity with logical claims to be represented at the Council. The EU has extensive Arctic policy proposals and numerous and detailed strategies and positions reflecting a considerable amount of collaboration. EU human rights concerning indigenous peoples of the European Union also frame the policy suggestions and papers regarding the Arctic. In a communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and Council relating to the European Union and the Arctic region, the Commission stated ―The main goal must be to prevent and mitigate the negative impact of climate change as well as to support adaptation to inevitable changes. Prevention and mitigation action should also concern other global and trans-boundary processes with negative impacts in the Arctic, such as long-range transport of pollutants. This should be complemented by developing a holistic, ecosystem-based management of human activities, ensuring that the latter are administered in a sustainable way, integrating environmental considerations at all levels.‖(EU, 2008). Oceana Oceana is a high profile Non Governmental Organization (NGO) that has taken a strong interest in the Arctic and the Arctic Council. Oceana identifies issues relevant to the overall health of the Oceans and then decides how to focus resources to attain a favorable outcome on the issues they focus on. In many cases, Oceana will advocate for local, regional, and international policy changes. Association of Oil and Gas Producers The Association of Oil and Gas Producers (OGP) seeks to develop communications between the oil and gas industry and growing international regulatory bodies. Given the importance of the Arctic, in terms of having approximately a quarter of the remaining hydrocarbons on Earth, the OGP is particularly interested in the Arctic Council. 93
  • 95. Issues of environment, health, safety, security, and social responsibility are core areas of interest for the OGP. This organization represents most of the major oil and gas producers. Organizations such as the OGP seek to collaborate with organizations such as the Arctic Council when developing reports that recommended practices for Arctic oil spill prevention and OSR infrastructure requirements. Such reports are exemplified by a report falling under the heading of emergency prevention, preparedness, and response recommended practices for Arctic oil spill prevention.(Council & Project, 2013)That report was commissioned by the Norwegian Coastal Administration and filed with the Arctic Council; the ramifications for OGP is substantial. As such, they wish to have their interests represented. OSPAR Commission Originally formed in 1972 by the Oslo Convention against dumping, the Oslo-Paris Commission is a regional organization that includes 15 member states which are Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom. OSPAR has different regions and Region 1 covers the area of the North Atlantic to the Arctic waters. Their membership includes member states of the Arctic Council, namely, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and Iceland. OSPAR has interests in the biodiversity of the area, cultural interests, and resource development. 94
  • 96. Figure 19 - OSPAR Region 1 Source: http://www.ospar.org/content/content.asp?menu=00420211000000_000000_000000 Greenpeace Greenpeace is an international organization dedicated to protecting the environment. Similar to Oceana, but it is much older and very well established across the globe. Greenpeace is able to elevate media attention to environmental issues. The Greenpeace application for permanent observer status with the Arctic Council is largely motivated by a strong desire to participate in the shaping of environmental policies that will impact the Arctic. International Hydrographic Organisation The International Hydrographic Organisation (IHO) coordinates the work and standards of international hydrographic offices. Every member state in the Arctic Council is a member of the IHO. As the Arctic becomes more accessible, the obvious need for standardized hydrographic products and coordination of international hydrographic surveys will be increasingly important. World Meteorological Organization 95
  • 97. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a collaborative research body that functions as the United Nations voice on the global climate. The membership consists of 191 countries and as the UN’s primary agency that advises on global climate change, the role of the WMO in the Arctic is imperative. In addition to the scientific contributions, the WMO also contributes to funding various research sites in the Arctic and participating on various scientific inquiries. Association of Polar Early Career Scientists The Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) is an organization for undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral students and early faculty members who have a research interest in polar regions and the cryosphere. APECS has the goal of creating enhanced international and interdisciplinary scientific research opportunities. As the interest in polar science has accelerated along with climate change research, the APECS conferences and interdisciplinary research opportunities have increased. APECS maintains a variety of outreach, research activities, and educational outreach programs. Arctic Council and Arctic Circle One of the newer groups with a strong interest in the Arctic is called the Arctic Circle. After the Arctic Imperative Summits I and II, it became evident that it would be beneficial for all parties interested in the Arctic to have a forum where they could collaborate and work together to advance Arctic understanding of climate change, economic interests, cultural interests, and so forth. But the club like environment of the Arctic Council prohibited many interested parties from having direct participation in a global forum. Because of this, the success of the Arctic Imperative Summits has now evolved into a new forum called the Arctic Circle, where everybody can gather 96
  • 98. to meet on matters of importance to them, learn from each other, and further international cooperation in the Arctic. The Arctic Circle is a very unique forum and none like it exists anywhere else in the circumpolar world. Some of the participants in the Arctic Circle are from the Arctic, Himalayan, Antarctic (AHA) nations that possess most of the glaciers on the planet. The Arctic Circle advocates for increased dialogue with the three critical ice regions of the Earth and for an open forum where anybody with genuine interest can collaborate and participate. It should be noted that the most proliferous ice reserves outside of the Polar Regions are the Himalayan nations. The rate of de-glaciation in all of these areas continues to accelerate at a rapid pace and the consequences will impact billions of people. Perhaps after a couple decades, as sea level predictions are constantly increased, we may come to witness the headcount of the displaced shifting from millions, to tens of millions, to the hundreds of millions. Accordingly, the Arctic Circle believes the time has come to encourage open dialogue and bring together people in forums like the Arctic Circle where people who are interested in these matters can collaborate and contribute in a meaningful way. How the Arctic Circle develops and what that means for the Arctic Council has yet to be determined. The Arctic Circle has yet to fully establish how their role will grow and what it will ultimately become. Some have called it a sort of non-aligned version of the Arctic Council, but most prefer to think of it as an open forum where invitations are not required to participate. PART VIGEO STRATEGIC INFLUENCE Clearly, one of the more interesting aspects of the Arctic is the nature of the people who live there and the incredible fact that the vast majority of the population of circumpolar nations have never 97
  • 99. actually visited the Arctic, either in their own nations or in other circumpolar nations. This seems to be almost astounding. In Canada, a nation that is so closely identified with being north, and a country where polar identification is closely tied to the national identity, over 95% of the population have never been to the Arctic. The Arctic is more than an abstract concept, but for so many people in circumpolar nations, it remains a central part of the national identity while, at the same time, it remains somewhat distant and abstract. Another interesting aspect of Arctic people is that they seem to have a fierce loyalty to their way of life, their Arctic, and their identity. It’s probably quite natural for anybody to have a strong identity with their land and their people, but it also seems as though the people of the Arctic retain some amount of skepticism in the interest of what they see as Southerners. In essence, there remains a bit of disconnect between the Arctic and the rest of the circumpolar populations, but it is unlikely this level of disconnect will remain intact indefinitely as greater resource development occurs. As that happens, more and more southerners will come to the Arctic. As the Arctic waters gradually become more and more ice ―free‖ for longer periods of time, it is likely more tourists will find their way to the Arctic. The Arctic holds a lot of fascination for the citizens of the circumpolar nations and as greater numbers of people find their way to the Arctic, the costs associated with travel to the Arctic will begin to recede. Much like the climate change model of a positive feedback loop, more people in the Arctic will act as an enabler to bring still more people to the Arctic. The impact will this have on the lives of the traditional people of the Arcticremains to be seen. Whatever transpires, it is likely to take some amount of time and hopefully that will generate enough time to create the kind of transition that will be of greatest benefit to the people of the Arctic. 98
  • 100. Strategic Relationships Obviously, in an environment where relationships have developed in tight knit communities over centuries, it is not a simple matter to show up and expect local people will want to accept you and do business with you. There will, by default, be some amount of relationship building required. As Southern communities begin to develop relationships with northern communities, some amount of strategic positioning is helpful. Existing business interests in the Arctic already have many relationships in Southern areas and vice-versa. In addition to the economic ties, the relationships that grow span friendships throughoutconnected organizations. Growing institutional relationships, a spirit of openness, and a strong sense of wanting to do something right contributes to a spirit of wise stewardship of the Arctic; it is a driving force for many participants. Perhaps, in many ways, the chance to do it right in the Arctic is a thrilling opportunity that speaks to the entire World. The ability to focus on the future and go well beyond the necessities of a generation to the requirements of future generations to come; that shows all of us how much we can believe in the future no matter where we are from or what our individual interests are. All across the planet, there are numerous people who remember the Cold War. They recall a time when it was unthinkable for Russians and Americans to collaborate in a meaningful way, now they are friends after spending so many decades as mortal enemies. Interestingly, places like the Arctic Council and forums like the Arctic Circle provide former enemies, like the Americans and the Russians, with a place to meet and collaborate on important issues in a spirit of peace and mutual collaboration. There will always be certain risks 99
  • 101. associated with doing business internationally. Decisions tend to be made with the values and morals of the day. Striking a positive outlook for long term relationships that provide key partners with measureable benefits will help createongoing relationships. As these relationships mature and combine in a variety of ways, with all the players of the region, a nexus of cooperation emerges; one that will be necessary to protect the delicate environment of the Arctic. Global power shiftswill modify strategies for national defense and international projection of power. Managing multiple channels for business, diplomatic, and collaborative endeavours will inevitably become a core part of our Arctic reality for the rest of the 21stcentury. Polar Class Icebreakers and Polar Transportation The Russian Federation currently maintains a fleet of nuclear and diesel polar class ice breakers with plans to build more. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, now the Russian Federation, has a long history of navigating the Arctic. Massive economic wealth has long been one of the driving influences of their Arctic development. Make no mistake about it, their Arctic capabilities have been intregral to national security policy as well. These two driving factors have resulted in the Russian Federation having undisputed icebreaking superiority. Russian port infrastructure and naval capacity, safter navigation routes, along with SAR presence, makes the northern sea route on the Russian side far more attractive than the northwest passage on the Canadian side. The Canadian Coast Guard maintains a fleet of 18 icebreakers(Canada, 2011) led by two Heavy Icebreakers, the CCGS Louis St.-Laurent and the CCGS Terry Fox. Canada’s four Medium Icebreakers, the CCGS Amundsen, CCGS Des Groseilliers, CCGS Henry Larsen, and CCGS Pierre Radisson are supplemented by a fleet of seven Light 100
  • 102. Icebreakers and other multi tasked vehicles, many of which operate in the Great Lakes and the St. Lawerence Seaway. The Russian federation operates three nuclear powered icebreakers led by the Sovetskiy Soyuz, Yamal, 50 Let Pobedy with plans to build several more. These vessels are accompanied by over thirty icebreakers in the deisel class; the Russians also operate numerous multi tasked vehicles. The Swedes operate numerous Icebreakers including the Oden, the first non nuclear icebreaker to reach the North Pole(Nilsen, 2012). The United States currently maintains one polar class ice breaker in the Arctic, Canada maintains three, SAR options are relatively limited and deepwater ports are distant from shipping routes. Arctic Summits The Second Arctic Imperative Summit, convened in Anchorage at Alyeska in Girdwood, Alaska drew leaders from around the circumpolar world including the President of Iceland and high level government representatives from Finland, Greenland, Canada, and the United States. Corporate leaders, think tank leaders, and government officials were present with a large contingent of Alaskan leaders. The matrix of organizations and people gathered reflect the importance of the high Arctic and it serves as a notice of the impending perception that geo-strategic importance surrounding Arctic affairs, as a matter of widespread interest, is gaining rapid uptake. With the high level attendance of the President of Iceland, International Ambassadors, Ministers, and Diplomatic Staff, the profile of the Arctic Imperative Summit was impressive and thorough. Everywhere an individual turned, they would meet and converse with some of the finest thought leaders with a common interest in global climate change and the requirements of development 101
  • 103. in an environmentally responsible manner. In addition, the overwhelming aura of the conference is as noticeable as the aurora borealis; the people were all there to learn about the last great frontier left on our Earth. One of the few places where there are areas, as far as the eye can see, where no human has ever walked. The collaboration with First Nations and their leading role in shaping policies that will impact the circumpolar region is ubiquitous in environments like the Arctic Imperative Summit or the Arctic Council. Millennia of anecdotal information, preservation of unique cultures, traditions, and languages are strongly valued. In addition to potentially vast hydrocarbon resources that could do things like fill TAPS again and renew exceptional prosperity to the State of Alaska and the Indigenous peoples. Numerous opportunities exist, and the nexus of political leaders, business leaders, and policy makers from many of the most important circumpolar participants make the Arctic Imperative Summit one of the leading public forums on the Arctic that exists in the World today. The Arctic Imperative Summit has evolved into the Arctic Circle as previously discussed, and the full impact of the group is still evolving. In addition to all the great business and academic opportunities that exist in the Arctic, there are numerous opportunities for think tank collaborations. Stepping beyond the research of a graduate student and bridging the gap into the great think tanks of the World. Between some of the highest ranking military leaders in North America, the largest and most influential think tanks, tremendous banking power, and global corporate leadership, the Summit accorded a rare opportunity to bring all levels of input into the Arctic, and to receive all of the different thinking possible. 102
  • 104. Relationships developed at the Summit span all levels of possible interest that spans public and private. But through it all, there was no cultural negotiation; all parties were brought together as equals. Through this direction, the precious idea of hope remains as strong as ever, it permeates the meetings and the participants take it back home with them. This spirit of international collaboration for something that is more important than the interests of any one person or organization was well understood by all the participants. It is a very unique and worthwhile experience and it is likely the evolution of the Arctic Imperative Summit into the Arctic Circle will continue to embrace these fundamental precepts. Ties That Bind The people of the Arctic are unique, but at the same time, there are characteristics that are shared with other cultures that know subsistence backgrounds and have ties to the traditions that speak to survival in a harsh environment. Such cultures have a strong tradition of deep relationship building. In western culture, business relationships have little to do with family ties, traditional relationships, or other longitudinal influence factors. This, of course, is not true in every western society. Japan, for example, has a long tradition of close ties with their business partners, often cited in Toyota Manufacturing models as being based on keiretsu, a close-knit network of vendors that continuously learn, improve, and prosper along with their parent companies. This has traditionally been cited as a core part of the underlying strategy behind Honda and Toyota's supplier relationships. The concept of keiretsu can be traced back in Japanese business structures to the 19th Century, but it is likely a derivative of pre-existing relationships amongst Japanese interests that preceded the 19th century. 103
  • 105. Arctic communities have forged a living under difficult conditions. Subsistence living, not entirely unlike what would have been common for subsistence cultures in any other part of the World, required the establishment of close bonds in the area from which subsistence was derived. This was done for survival, quite obviously, and it manifests itself in the form of shared bounty. In other words, if one village manages to harvest a whale, there is more meat than they can use. The most logical method of insuring survival is to share the meat with surrounding groups so that when times are tough in the village, it is more probably that other areas with food will, in turn, share it with the village. This concept, over the centuries, has created a very interconnected region where deep bonds of trust and affection have formed. Initially, formed for the very survival of the people, the current manifestation of this bond is in the trust in the community and, quite naturally, there exists some amount of skepticism reserved for outsiders. Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response Overview Search and Rescue and Oil Spill Response International agreements to collaborate and share resources continue to be harmonized with specific responsibilities and obligations under the international Search and Rescue Convention (SAR).Binational agreements and other arrangements are made as are deemed beneficial. 104
  • 106. Figure 20 - Arctic Search and Rescue http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/documents/propositions-and-reports/reports-to-the-storting/2011-2012/meld-st-720112012-2/10/2.html?id=697778 Oil Spill Response International response requirements are detailed under numerous agreements, again, like search and rescue, bi-national and multinational arrangements exist. Large cargo vessels have made transits through the Arctic. High insurance rates combined with relatively unpredictable traffic through the Arctic will continue to keep levels suppressed due to ice worthiness of vessels and limited number of days availalble where reasonable risks associated with Arctic travel retain a positive economic value to the shipping lines. While the vast majority of cargo vessels are not ice worthy, there are some 105
  • 107. that are designed for polar environments, and some have been crossing, like the Odysessy above and the Vladimir Tikhonov pictured below. In August 2011, the Suezmax tanker Vladimir Tikhonovbroke the record for the largest vessel to transit the Northern Sea Route. The route saved the Vladimir Tikhonov over 400,000 in fuel and 7 days time and represents a vessel that is one and a half the size of a Nimitz class aircraft carrier. Figure 21 - Vladimir Tikhonov http://www.marinetraffic.com/photos/of/ships/photo_keywords:636012814 Joint training exercises between Russia and Norway have been ongoing for years; these exercises have been expanded to include Scandinavian nations. On the Canadian and U.S. side, there is, in comparison, a considered gap in capability. In Canada, gaps in response speed are exacerbated by long distances to equipment and resupply centres. 106
  • 108. As the amount of exploration extends into the Arctic, the response centres are located in the south for Canada. As a consequence, the Canadian Coast Guard has set up emergency supply points for local communities to utilize as a first response. While the interest in exploration in the Canadian Arctic is limited, the federal government does state a capacity to handle a 10,000 tonne spill. Figure 22 - Canadian Arctic Exploration Source: http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1335971994893/1335972853094 Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge The Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge undersea formations have been claimed by the Russian Federation as extensions of their continental shelf and they continue to extended their presence in the Arctic. The Russian Federation has demonstrated their strategic interests in the Arctic through many different actions, one of the most visible to the global media was planting 107
  • 109. the flag of the Russian Federation on the sea floor at the North Pole. This is also, noteably, in the vicinity of the Mendeleev Ridge extension claim(Gramling, 2007). Figure 23 - Mendeleev Ridge near North Pole Source: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/ibcao_gebco_comp.html Further economic opportunity for Canada has very sizeable potential with a considerable amount of hydrocarbon and mineral reserves in the Arctic. Mineralogy and hydrocarbon resources will be covered in more detail in subsequent sections. Suffice it to say, the arguments related to undersea extensions of continental shelves have considerable potential economic consequences. Russia is thought to have enormous economic potential in the undersea portions of the Arctic they claim. The Russian Natural Resources Ministry says research conducted will substantiate a Russian claim to over 1.2 million square 108
  • 110. kilometers of territory estimated to hold over 5 billion tons of equivalent fuel or roughly 426 billion cubic meters of gas and over 80 million tons of oil(Novosti, 2007). Government Relations at Different Levels At the Arctic Summit, the national collaborations provide a unique environment where collaboration is done outside of normal channels. The large bureaucratic engines of national capitals and the industry of personnel that serve the national institutions simply don’t exist in the Arctic. International collaboration may exist between nation and state, province and city, or even a citizen and a head of state. The unique gift associated with the Arctic is that it is a frontier. Even the strategic relationships, during these heady days when the planet’s poles seize the global imagination, are made in the most unexpected ways. Many relationships exist in a loosely knit arrangement; alongside formal relationships that have been long established. A considerable portion of government to government interaction has been conducted on an ad hoc basis, in some cases; it arises out of unpredictable circumstances. In some instances, cultural or heritage related events have created opportunities for international connections, these opportunities are precious. Many cultural relationships will be driven along the entire circumpolar Arctic; it will be the relationships between the North and South that will be more complex to manage. Sometimes relationships developed purely on an economic footing, return benefits to the society or organization where development occurs. This may strongly influence perception of development. When KOGAS was looking for a natural gas supply, they visited the Northwest Territories of Canada in order to consider a position in a large gas field. 109
  • 111. Knowing infrastructure to move Mackenzie Delta gas to market is nearly non-existent, KOGAS considered building a liquid natural gas facility. The development of a port system that can safely withstand the harsh Arctic environment and safely handle LNG shipments could create a potential solution set that would not only require local assistance in many ways, but in a two way dialogue, there would be gas brought to Tuktoyaktuk, one of the smaller settlements on the Arctic Sea. This is but an example of how a business opportunity might unfold. But it’s also an example of a global energy company in discussions with a municipal government. These are ideas that have been discussed in part, for some time. There are considerable challenges, not the least of which is being able to manufacture polar class LNG transport vehicle. But this is not outside the reach of Samsung Heavy Industries which has capacity to deliver vessels of a size that can make the transport across the arctic economically feasible. Initiatives of the People The people of the Arctic have family relationships that cross the boundaries of circumpolar nation states. It matters where you were born when you go to get a passport, but it doesn’t matter the same way to a family in the Arctic, whereother family members may be located just a few miles away withthe imaginary line of a nation state somewhere in the middle. One of the ways people have long undertaken their own form of relationship building, the cultural exchanges are easily identified, well understood, and are widely thought of as being excellent initiatives. Such initiatives can be undertaken by NGO’s, private citizens, youth groups, communities, and even between municipalities or schools. 110
  • 112. Cultural exchanges often have some indirect or quasi-direct relationships to different levels of government, which tends to demystify access to municipal leaders and government officials in addition to community and business leaders. In smaller communities, it is often welcome to facilitate and advance the ability of NGO/NPO groups and individuals to make key contacts. These contacts may be able to further group or individual objectives. The process becomes increasingly complex in direct correlation to the size of municipality. As a result, smaller sized municipalities seem to be well positioned to convey a level of openness and accessibility that would be more difficult to secure in major metropolitan areas.Proximity to large metropolitan areas, however, adds an important aspect to cultural exchanges insomuch as it adds that extra dimension exchange participants likely appreciate. Smaller towns near large metropolitan areas, especially capitals, have a tremendous opportunity to be an excellent experience for international participants. Nations may invest in their future strategic interests and enhanced ability to shape international relations in a variety of ways. Establishing personal relationships between different entities with overlapping mutual interests has long proven to be a wise strategy. THOUGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS Circumpolar nations have enormously important economic considerations at stake in the Arctic. The richness of the Arctic fisheries are quite important as economic drivers for countries like Norway and Iceland. In addition to holding potential for mineral and hydrocarbon wealth, one of the most important aspects of the Arctic Political Economy will be an interplay between environmental preservation 111
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  • 123. TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1 - NOAA 2009 - 2014 CO2 Levels Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 2 - Atmospheric CO2 Mauna Loa since the mid-20th Century Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ ........................................................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 3 - Law Dome Historical Ice Core CO2 Samples 75 Years Smoothed Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratories ..................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Figure 4 - GISS CO2 Emissions to 2100 by Category Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/ ................................................................................................................................................................. 22 Figure 5 - Climate Impacts to 2100 by Industry Mw Source : http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20100218a/ .................................................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 6 - Great Ocean Conveyor Belt Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/ocean/circulation.htm ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 7 - North Atlantic Circulation Source: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/legrande_01/ ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 Figure 8 - 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html ................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Figure 9 - Polar Visualization of Sea Ice Minimum 2012 Source : http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html ....................................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 10 - Greenland Ice Melt Cumulative Days 2012 Source: http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/2013/02/greenland-melting-2012-in-review/ .................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 11 - Cryoconites (Black Holes) in ice Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/PaintedGlaciers/page3.php ...................................................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 12 - Ice Melt on Greenland Ice Shelf Source: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2008/greenland_speedup.html .......................................................................................................................... 44 Figure 13 - Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf Source: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Figure 14 - Vladimir Putin Source: http://eng.kremlin.ru/transcripts/4779 ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 58 Figure 15 - Northern Route and Northwest Passage Source: http://www.unep.org/yearbook/2003/053.htm ................................................................................................................................................................................. 59 Figure 16 – Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 60 Figure 17 - Athabaskan PeopleSource: http://www.arcticathabaskancouncil.com/aac/?q=node/5 ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 76 Figure 18 - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao meets with Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 89 Figure 19 - OSPAR Region 1 Source: http://www.ospar.org/content/content.asp?menu=00420211000000_000000_000000 ................................................................................................................................................ 95 Figure 20 - Arctic Search and Rescue http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/documents/propositions-and-reports/reports-to-the-storting/2011-2012/meld-st-7-20112012-2/10/2.html?id=697778 .............. 105 Figure 21 - Vladimir Tikhonov http://www.marinetraffic.com/photos/of/ships/photo_keywords:636012814 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 106 Figure 22 - Canadian Arctic Exploration Source: http://www.aadnc-aandc.gc.ca/eng/1335971994893/1335972853094 ...................................................................................................................................................... 107 Figure 23 - Mendeleev Ridge near North Pole Source: http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/ibcao_gebco_comp.html ..................................................................................................................................... 108 122