Viral marketing is dead. Long live viral marketing.

Presentation Objectives A point of view about measurement and analytics Defining viral marketing (if we can) Effective uses Methods of measuring What we can learn from epidemiologists In the end, it’s all about the consumer Goal: Think differently Issues addressed in this presentation

A point of view about measurement and analytics

Defining viral marketing (if we can)

Effective uses

Methods of measuring

What we can learn from epidemiologists

In the end, it’s all about the consumer

Goal: Think differently

A point of view on measurement and analytics

Understanding the question on CPG WHO… What people do What people read What people tell us What we can learn … BUYS… Direct sales Yahoo Consumer Direct Coupon programs Click through to retailers … and WHY? Voice of the customer Surveys Polls Market research programs

WHO…

What people do

What people read

What people tell us

What we can learn

… BUYS…

Direct sales

Yahoo Consumer Direct

Coupon programs

Click through to retailers

… and WHY?

Voice of the customer

Surveys

Polls

Market research programs

A simple philosophy… Any marketing dollar spent that does not make you money or make you smarter is a wasted marketing dollar. Kirk Cheyfitz, CEO, Story Worldwide

Grounding data in traditional marketing* In order to evaluate digital channels, we should look at digital activities in the context of traditional marketing principles, such as the consumer decision making process Loyalty Usage Purchase Trial Consideration Awareness Purchase Ownership Pre-Purchase

In order to evaluate digital channels, we should look at digital activities in the context of traditional marketing principles, such as the consumer decision making process

Moving consumers past inflection points Defectors Members New Users Trial Users Observers Size of Audience Customer Lifecycle Loyalty Usage Purchase Trial Consideration Awareness Purchase Ownership Pre-Purchase “ It’s not just what people do, it’s what people do next” Inflection points Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go

Re-classifying metrics Definition : Indicate if business and brand metrics have been met Audience : Senior Management & Business Owners Sample Metric : Number of visitors requesting a free sample Definition : Continuous improvement data Audience : Brand team, Site Owner, User Experience Team, Technology / Infrastructure Owners Sample Metric : Abandonment on free sample form Diagnostic metrics (Weekly/Monthly) Strategic metrics (Quarterly)

Definition : Indicate if business and brand metrics have been met

Audience : Senior Management & Business Owners

Sample Metric : Number of visitors requesting a free sample

Definition : Continuous improvement data

Audience : Brand team, Site Owner, User Experience Team, Technology / Infrastructure Owners

Sample Metric : Abandonment on free sample form

Strategic metrics (Quarterly)

”Number of consumers who pressed ‘start’” >Web analytics tool measuring action button Conclusive Inferred Some are conclusive, others act as indicators only Not all data are the same “ Forward-to-a-friend indicates brand health” >Spreading of messages suggests that company is expanding brand equity

”Number of consumers who pressed ‘start’” >Web analytics tool measuring action button

Conclusive

Inferred

Some are conclusive, others act as indicators only

“ Forward-to-a-friend indicates brand health”

>Spreading of messages suggests that company is expanding brand equity

Strategic measures track conversion The reasons why drive learning goals Defectors Members New Users Trial Users Observers Size of Audience Customer Lifecycle Loyalty Usage Purchase Trial Consideration Awareness Purchase Ownership Pre-Purchase % % % % % % % % % % Inflection points Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go “ It’s not just what people do, it’s what people do next” Are consumers moving down the decision-making process?

Diagnostic measures track size of audience What is happening with the technology? % Size of Audience Customer Lifecycle % % % % % % % % % % Inflection points Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go Is the experience working properly?

Overall s uccess is measured in the increments Size of Audience Customer Lifecycle Loyalty Usage Purchase Trial Consideration Awareness Purchase Ownership Pre-Purchase

Ultimately, let’s turn data into customers “ Consumers” Insights Individual Real Are consumers moving down the decision-making process? Who buys our products and why? Size of Audience Customer Lifecycle % % % % % % % % % % Inflection points Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go Stop Go The reasons why drive learning goals Content / Experiences Content / Experiences Content / Experiences Content / Experiences Content / Experiences Content / Experiences Data dB Data Data Data Data Data “ Eye Balls” Data Aggregate Virtual

The “who” starts everything None of this really matters if we don’t know —or at least have a hypothesis about—our consumers. David Levy, Story Worldwide

Segmentation of consumers in dB Acquire Identify Opt in Drive repeat purchase Validate & engage Eliminate Identify Drive repeat purchase Drive loyalty Business goals Digital role Description Segment Consumers not in the brand at all Purchase qualified leads “ New” Analyze web stats and media reports Deliver content and coupons Consumers who have purchased our products but have yet to opt in “ Name” Analyze dB Hygiene email to validate Consumers who have opted in but may, or may not, have purchased our products “ Dabblers” Analyze dB Deliver content and coupons Customer for life Consumers who have purchased our products and opted in for further communications “ Buyers”

Acquire

Identify

Opt in

Drive repeat purchase

Validate & engage

Eliminate

Identify

Drive repeat purchase

Drive loyalty

Purchase qualified leads

Analyze web stats and media reports

Deliver content and coupons

Analyze dB

Hygiene email to validate

Analyze dB

Deliver content and coupons

Customer for life

Customer Lifecycle Engage each segment at a relevant moment… Acquire new names Yes IDENTIFY Loyalty Usage Purchase Trial Consideration Awareness Purchase Ownership Pre-Purchase New Name Dabblers Buyers Drive the next purchase Customer for life IDENTIFY as Buyer Validate: in or out? Drive trial No

Customer Lifecycle … with content and experiences designed to reach that particular goal Acquire new names Yes IDENTIFY Coupons and offers, then migrate to newsletter Newsletter with content, features, coupons and offers Identify, then migrate to newsletter Identify, then migrate to newsletter Loyalty Usage Purchase Trial Consideration Awareness Purchase Ownership Pre-Purchase New Name Dabblers Buyers Drive the next purchase Customer for life IDENTIFY as Buyer Validate: in or out? Drive trial No

Summary Learning goals: “Who buys our products and why?” Any dollar spent that doesn’t get us closer to answering at least one aspect of this question is a wasted marketing dollar Consumers are DIFFERENT: It all starts with knowledge of our consumer and good segmentation Think of digital marketing in terms of the consumer decision making process, because… “ It’s not just what people do, it’s what people do next”

Learning goals: “Who buys our products and why?”

Any dollar spent that doesn’t get us closer to answering at least one aspect of this question is a wasted marketing dollar

Consumers are DIFFERENT: It all starts with knowledge of our consumer and good segmentation

Think of digital marketing in terms of the consumer decision making process, because…

Long live viral marketing.

Some famous examples

Some not so famous examples –Week of 7/30/07 The consumer decides what is viral…not us. http://www.viralvideo.com Top 10 Viral Videos, From Wendy Boswell 1. The Backstreet Boys - "I Want It That Way" - Two Chinese Students and a Dream 2. All Your Base Are Belong To Us 3. Numa Numa Dance 4. Star Wars Kid-Original Star Wars Kid and Star Wars Kid Remixes 5. Demolition of the Seattle Kingdome 6. Whale Blows Up Video-aka Explosives and Mammals Don't Mix 7. "Apache Boy" - Big Hair, Big Dance Numbers, Big Cheese Factor 8. How To Dance Like A White Guy 9. "It's A Big Ad-Such A Big Ad"-Carlton Draught's Big Ad 10. Fifth Grade Devo-Whip It! Whip It Good!

Some not so famous examples –Week of 8/2/2007 The consumer decides what is viral…not us. http://www.viralvideo.com

Special report on experienced “viral” marketers Special Report: Viral Marketing 2007 (Marketing Sherpa) SUMMARY: Interest in viral marketing is super-hot right now. The 2007 Viral Marketing Survey just closed with 2,914 responses, 3 1/2 times more participants than last year. (Thanks, folks!) But what the responses tell us is that, after more than a decade, viral marketing still has several bugs to work out . For instance, few viral campaigns explode online on their own -- ever . Growing their email list and viral as a very good match of a tactic/goal. Much less likely to use viral for attempts at direct sales and see it as a better tool for branding/awareness I’ll link to the study at my blog http://thethingis.typepad.com

Special Report: Viral Marketing 2007 (Marketing Sherpa)

SUMMARY: Interest in viral marketing is super-hot right now. The 2007 Viral Marketing Survey just closed with 2,914 responses, 3 1/2 times more participants than last year. (Thanks, folks!) But what the responses tell us is that, after more than a decade, viral marketing still has several bugs to work out . For instance, few viral campaigns explode online on their own -- ever .

Growing their email list and viral as a very good match of a tactic/goal.

Much less likely to use viral for attempts at direct sales and see it as a better tool for branding/awareness

I’ll link to the study at my blog http://thethingis.typepad.com

The Hall of Famers #1. Peerflix Paparazzi (game) #2. Beer.com's Virtual Bartender #3. New Rules of PR (White paper, PDF) B2B #4. Wadsworth Atheneum - Surrealist Exhibit #5. The Quantum IT Challenge B2B Game to qualify leads #6. MakeMyTrip Viral Series (India) #7. Blog in Space #8. Kreedo Brand Democracy market research firm, Portugal #9. Monk-e-Mail #10. mySBC eBill Service: Trees in the Forest of Change #11. Belt Buckle Knife – Independent shop, measured value of leads #12. The ERP of This Century B2B Rap song #1. Sunflower Market Multichannel, widget, cardboard flowers #2. NetQoS' Netcosm B2B, video #3. Farm Aid microsite #4. The Gobbledygook Manifesto Blog posting of book excerpt #5. Levi Strauss Hong Kong Make your own video contest #6. TaxBrain.com TV commercial #7. Six Degrees/Network for Good #8. Beacon Street Girls Games for book launch #9. Exeros Inc. B2B Tech audience game #10. Fox's 'American Dad' DVD Game Source: Marketing Sherpa: Viral Hall of Fame 2006, 2007 2006 2007

#1. Peerflix Paparazzi (game)

#2. Beer.com's Virtual Bartender

#3. New Rules of PR (White paper, PDF) B2B

#4. Wadsworth Atheneum - Surrealist Exhibit

#5. The Quantum IT Challenge B2B Game to qualify leads

#6. MakeMyTrip Viral Series (India)

#7. Blog in Space

#8. Kreedo Brand Democracy market research firm, Portugal

#9. Monk-e-Mail

#10. mySBC eBill Service: Trees in the Forest of Change

#11. Belt Buckle Knife – Independent shop, measured value of leads

#12. The ERP of This Century B2B Rap song

Definition(s) of viral marketing Viral marketing: A marketing message that is passed along from person to person so that it reaches exponentially more people than the marketer originally exposed to it. Viral marketing is a marketing phenomenon that facilitates and encourages people to pass along a marketing message voluntarily .[2] Viral promotions may take the form of funny video clips, interactive Flash games, advergames, images, or even text messages Source: Wikipedia A marketing message that, by virtue of it’s a powerful message (be it entertainment, social, economic or otherwise), is shared among cohorts who are valuable to your marketing plan . For me, viral marketing is when something is developed - either a video, a joke, or a game (like an ARG) - that is barely branded , if at all, and is so attractive/additctive, that you can't help but pass it onto all of your friends or get involved. The key is that it's stealthy - like I said, barely branded. Often, the most successful viral marketing pieces aren't even meant to be viral marketing pieces Viral marketing is messaging ( humorous, provocative, angry, persuasive ) that is created with the intention of having recipients forward the message to a social network of friends, coworkers and family. Sometimes there is a specific call to action (sign a petition, give money, visit a website), messages are usually self-contained with the ultimate action goal being a message that inspires every recipient to continue forwarding the message to a new group of contacts. I think of “viral marketing” as marketing that is brief , broadly accessible and easily shareable. It seems that it is more often than not humorous, but the better one-word definition of what makes marketing viral is probably “ novelty ”. It has to feel like something new , to the point that the consumer is willing to spam their friends and family with yet another “check this out” email in their inbox.

Viral marketing: A marketing message that is passed along from person to person so that it reaches exponentially more people than the marketer originally exposed to it.

Viral marketing is a marketing phenomenon that facilitates and encourages people to pass along a marketing message voluntarily .[2] Viral promotions may take the form of funny video clips, interactive Flash games, advergames, images, or even text messages Source: Wikipedia

A marketing message that, by virtue of it’s a powerful message (be it entertainment, social, economic or otherwise), is shared among cohorts who are valuable to your marketing plan .

For me, viral marketing is when something is developed - either a video, a joke, or a game (like an ARG) - that is barely branded , if at all, and is so attractive/additctive, that you can't help but pass it onto all of your friends or get involved. The key is that it's stealthy - like I said, barely branded. Often, the most successful viral marketing pieces aren't even meant to be viral marketing pieces

Viral marketing is messaging ( humorous, provocative, angry, persuasive ) that is created with the intention of having recipients forward the message to a social network of friends, coworkers and family. Sometimes there is a specific call to action (sign a petition, give money, visit a website), messages are usually self-contained with the ultimate action goal being a message that inspires every recipient to continue forwarding the message to a new group of contacts.

I think of “viral marketing” as marketing that is brief , broadly accessible and easily shareable. It seems that it is more often than not humorous, but the better one-word definition of what makes marketing viral is probably “ novelty ”. It has to feel like something new , to the point that the consumer is willing to spam their friends and family with yet another “check this out” email in their inbox.

Definition(s) of viral marketing Viral marketing is a program that starts out small but due to consumer interest the campaign gets larger through people passing the word to their friends/others . A Viral campaign is meant to be spread via word of mouth and by the consumer. In a nutshell, viral marketing is word-of-mouth (or these days, word-of-email). Something that is so compelling that you must pass it along to your friends to give them a chuckle, an eye-opener or a scare. Or simply to introduce them to something you find amusing, intriguing, shocking or simply entertaining I understand "viral" content to refer typically to a piece of online entertainment that spreads contagiously (either as a URL or file) because its users have found it particularly amusing, surprising, etc., and that earns them "cool points" for distributing it . The "marketing" extension suggests an attempt to generate a similar wave of interest/positive attention to the company responsible for the content's creation, often through material more provocative or candid than would be seen in traditional marketing channels, that is seeded on sharing/community/blog sites with as little appearance of being promoted by the company as possible. The taxonomy relates to "virus" and specifically how they spread: invisible, contagious, with exponential growth. I think it means street cred . Outsider as insider messaging distributed through atypical channels of communication containing an essential element of truth—be it wrapped in shock, humor, or absurdity. Key elements to viral marketing: - Do something to eye catching or offer up something free - Tell a story (the message does the selling) - Make it easy for someone to pass along. It's important to follow up once the idea blows up . You have do more to promote/exploit all the word-of-mouth advertising to be a successful campaign.

Viral marketing is a program that starts out small but due to consumer interest the campaign gets larger through people passing the word to their friends/others . A Viral campaign is meant to be spread via word of mouth and by the consumer.

In a nutshell, viral marketing is word-of-mouth (or these days, word-of-email). Something that is so compelling that you must pass it along to your friends to give them a chuckle, an eye-opener or a scare. Or simply to introduce them to something you find amusing, intriguing, shocking or simply entertaining

I understand "viral" content to refer typically to a piece of online entertainment that spreads contagiously (either as a URL or file) because its users have found it particularly amusing, surprising, etc., and that earns them "cool points" for distributing it . The "marketing" extension suggests an attempt to generate a similar wave of interest/positive attention to the company responsible for the content's creation, often through material more provocative or candid than would be seen in traditional marketing channels, that is seeded on sharing/community/blog sites with as little appearance of being promoted by the company as possible.

The taxonomy relates to "virus" and specifically how they spread: invisible, contagious, with exponential growth. I think it means street cred . Outsider as insider messaging distributed through atypical channels of communication containing an essential element of truth—be it wrapped in shock, humor, or absurdity.

Key elements to viral marketing: - Do something to eye catching or offer up something free - Tell a story (the message does the selling) - Make it easy for someone to pass along. It's important to follow up once the idea blows up . You have do more to promote/exploit all the word-of-mouth advertising to be a successful campaign.

Common / Uncommon Spreading Pass along Exponentially Contagious Funny Compelling Stealth Barely branded Atypical channels Word of mouth Seeding social networks and blogs Call to action Follow up post “blow up” Brief Novelty Cohort Cool points Street cred Voluntary Creating great content that turns people into media…and it helps to be funny But… Is it branded? Can we control it? Do we kick start it? Must it be short? And what’s a “cohort”?

Spreading

Pass along

Exponentially

Contagious

Funny

Compelling

Stealth

Barely branded

Atypical channels

Word of mouth

Seeding social networks and blogs

Call to action

Follow up post “blow up”

Brief

Novelty

Cohort

Cool points

Street cred

Voluntary

Classic “viral” model Spreading Pass along Exponentially Contagious Our message starts with this one “alpha” case and spreads throughout a larger population: Un-paid media

Spreading

Pass along

Exponentially

Contagious

Explosion in un-paid media and awareness Size of Audience Customer Lifecycle Increases in up-paid media can impact results further down the decision making process Loyalty Usage Purchase Trial Consideration Awareness Purchase Ownership Pre-Purchase

Increases in un-paid media can be measured Set baseline expectations for Cost Per Impression (CPI) paid media impressions by channel Observe and track activity through channels Digital Site based; Email; Search; Text messaging, etc.; Engagement metrics (downloads, buddy icons, sweeps) Word of mouth Blog mentions; PR impressions Off line media Over delivery on impressions (usually happens); Off line media (landing page strategy); video plays on YouTube Compute incremental un-paid awareness Add baseline plus incremental and calculate new CPI

Set baseline expectations for Cost Per Impression (CPI) paid media impressions by channel

Observe and track activity through channels

Digital

Site based; Email; Search; Text messaging, etc.; Engagement metrics (downloads, buddy icons, sweeps)

Word of mouth

Blog mentions; PR impressions

Off line media

Over delivery on impressions (usually happens); Off line media (landing page strategy); video plays on YouTube

Compute incremental un-paid awareness

Add baseline plus incremental and calculate new CPI

A simple model to measure un-paid awareness Assumes each channel can be tracked What should you use for costs? I’d recommend breaking out media costs from actual production costs Content creation is the key to driving un-paid media REMEMBER: This phenomenon can only be measured after the fact and after a relatively long period of time $0.333 1,500,000 500,000 $0.500 $500,000 1,000,000 Print $0.091 22,000,000 2,000,000 $0.100 $2,000,000 20,000,000 TV $0.050 2,000,000 1,000,000 $0.100 $100,000 1,000,000 PR $0.017 15,000,000 10,000,000 $0.050 $250,000 5,000,000 Digital New CPI New total Incremental impressions Initial CPI Investment Impressions Channel

Assumes each channel can be tracked

What should you use for costs?

I’d recommend breaking out media costs from actual production costs

Content creation is the key to driving un-paid media

REMEMBER: This phenomenon can only be measured after the fact and after a relatively long period of time

Long live viral marketing - Summary “ Viral” marketing has many definitions but we all agree it describes the spreading of a marketing message throughout a population, leading to incremental un-paid awareness “ Viral” marketing is driven by compelling and unique content , and good customer segmentation Consumers make the content viral , not us In fact, isn’t all GOOD marketing, viral marketing?

“ Viral” marketing has many definitions but we all agree it describes the spreading of a marketing message throughout a population, leading to incremental un-paid awareness

“ Viral” marketing is driven by compelling and unique content , and good customer segmentation

Consumers make the content viral , not us

In fact, isn’t all GOOD marketing, viral marketing?

Viral marketing is dead.

Flaws with the “viral” metaphor We don’t make it viral, the consumer does You never know what is going to pop, and why > Leads to hope-based planning It means too many things Used as a proxy for integrated, or multi-channel marketing, or word of mouth marketing as well as to describe content types and functionality Un-necessarily constraining No need to start small Focuses on the action, not the actor Viruses don’t even work that way They only “go viral” after they “went” viral

We don’t make it viral, the consumer does

You never know what is going to pop, and why > Leads to hope-based planning

It means too many things

Used as a proxy for integrated, or multi-channel marketing, or word of mouth marketing as well as to describe content types and functionality

Un-necessarily constraining

No need to start small

Focuses on the action, not the actor

Viruses don’t even work that way

They only “go viral” after they “went” viral

Why start with a small seed….

… when you can start with a big one? Source: “Viral marketing for the real world,” Harvard Business Review

Reproduction rates describe movement R>1 R<1 R=1

A slightly more complicated model $0.19 52631.56 2631.56 0.31 6.25 125 2500 0.05 $0.20 50,000 $10,000 $9.50 1052.63 52.63 0.01 0.13 2.5 50 0.05 $10.00 1000 $10,000 $51.61 193.75 93.75 6.25 12.5 25 50 0.5 $100.00 100 $10,000 $20.00 5 4 1 1 1 1 1 $100.00 1 $100 $3.23 31 30 16 8 4 2 2 $100.00 1 $100 New CPI Total impressions Incremental impressions T=4 T=3 T=2 T=1 R Initial CPI Initial seed Investment [Additional impressions per time period = T]

We can measure this in REAL-TIME $0.19 52631.56 2631.56 0.31 6.25 125 2500 0.05 $0.20 50,000 $10,000 $9.50 1052.63 52.63 0.01 0.13 2.5 50 0.05 $10.00 1000 $10,000 $51.61 193.75 93.75 6.25 12.5 25 50 0.5 $100.00 100 $10,000 $20.00 5 4 1 1 1 1 1 $100.00 1 $100 $3.23 31 30 16 8 4 2 2 $100.00 1 $100 New CPI Total impressions Incremental impressions T=4 T=3 T=2 T=1 R Initial CPI Initial seed Investment [Additional impressions per time period = T] Interested? Looking for a partner to pilot an open source piece of software called “Forward Track” Software is free Incremental costs to implement, test, QA, possibly invest in another server Long term commitment to learning (6 months to a year)

Interested?

Looking for a partner to pilot an open source piece of software called “Forward Track”

Software is free

Incremental costs to implement, test, QA, possibly invest in another server

Long term commitment to learning (6 months to a year)

Here’s how viruses really work Caught the disease Who are these people? How did they get it? Where did they get it? Data points Resisted the disease Who are these people? Why did they NOT get it? Source of a CURE

Caught the disease

Who are these people?

How did they get it?

Where did they get it?

Data points

Resisted the disease

Who are these people?

Why did they NOT get it?

Source of a CURE

This is your target audience…and your dB

We care about actions, as well as the actors Actively spread your message Who are these people? Do they buy your products? Why are they engaged with your brand? Potential brand advocates or ambassadors Received your message Who are these people? Do they buy your products? What are they NOT engaged with your brand? Build your dB (Quantity) After the media is spread, treat them differently…. and try to turn receivers into senders

Actively spread your message

Who are these people?

Do they buy your products?

Why are they engaged with your brand?

Potential brand advocates or ambassadors

Received your message

Who are these people?

Do they buy your products?

What are they NOT engaged with your brand?

Build your dB (Quantity)

Viral marketing is dead - Summary We don’t make it viral, the consumer does “ Viral” means too many things – Set expectations accurately Start with a large seed of consumers through several channels > We can plan and measure this Constantly cleanse and re-evaluate the email dB Treat consumers differently >Turn “receivers” into “senders” Think of digital marketing in terms of the consumer decision making process, because… “ It’s not just what people do, it’s what people do next”

We don’t make it viral, the consumer does

“ Viral” means too many things – Set expectations accurately

Start with a large seed of consumers through several channels > We can plan and measure this

Constantly cleanse and re-evaluate the email dB

Treat consumers differently >Turn “receivers” into “senders”

Think of digital marketing in terms of the consumer decision making process, because…

Please, give me your feedback *May be used on a future podcast David Levy, VP Data Marketing Story Worldwide (203) 803-4791 [email_address] Audio comment line*: (206) 350-3473 http://thethingis.typepad.com