Economics 2012 Review

Economics
2012 Review
2013 outlook
January 2013

01.04.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics 2

Contents global 2013 cALENDAR
click on highlighted arrows for interactive features

Forecaster Equity Maps BRIC Slowdown MONTH ACTIONS
Rankings Forward P/E ratios Analysis of the BRIC
The most accurate for 40 MSCI indexes. nations’ economies.
forecasters of major Page 11 Page 17 Ireland takes over presidency of the EU from Cyprus on Jan. 1.
economic indicators. ECB interest rate announcement Jan. 10.
Page 3 FX Markets U.S. Housing Spain to sell bonds Jan. 10 and 17.
Top currency trading The housing recov-
Czech Republic presidential election on Jan. 11-12; run-off scheduled on Jan 25-26.
Orange Book strategies in 2012. ery may boost the
Comments from Page 12 economy in 2013. JAN German state election for Lower Saxony on Jan. 20
earnings calls on Page 18 Israel parliamentary elections will be held on Jan. 22.
the global economy. Fixed Income Jordan parliamentary elections will be held on Jan. 23.
Page 4 A summary of fixed- Fed Watch
World Economic Forum commences in Davos Jan. 23.
income markets. Historic policy shift
Central Bank Page 13 may lead to nominal First FOMC meeting of 2013 will be held on Jan. 29-30.
Monitor GDP targeting.
An overview of Commodities Page 19
European Commission updates forecasts on Feb. 7.
global central banks. A highlight of key
Page 5 market movements. Fed Minutes EU leaders’ summit on long term budget 2014-2020 from Feb. 7.
Page 14 A visualization of Eurogroup/Ecofin meeting from Feb. 11.
Market Indica- meeting minutes. China welcomes the New Year, the Year of the Snake from Feb. 10-12.
tors European Debt Page 20 FEB
A look at global Crisis G20 finance ministers meeting from Feb. 14.
market indicators. A glance at the Best of Bloom- Ecuador general elections will be held on Feb. 17; run-off scheduled for Apr. 7.
Pages 6-7 region’s debt turmoil. berg Econo- Italian general elections will be held on Feb. 24-25.
Page 15 mists U.S. debt ceiling deadline to increase the $16.4 trillion limit on borrowing - Mid-February.
Economic Fun- Joseph Brusuelas
damentals U.S. Fiscal Cliff and Richard Yama-
Charts on major A review of the rone present some Eurogroup/Ecofin meeting from March 4.
economic indicators. budget agreement. of their best analysis. Pakistan general election due; National Assembly must be dissolved by March 18.
Pages 8-10 Page 16 Page 21 MAR
China’s parliament holds annual session, appoints new president and prime minister.
Bloomberg Brief Economics 2012 Review/2013 Outlook FOMC meeting, first economic projections - March 19-20.
Newsletter Ted Merz Bloomberg News Dan Moss
Executive Editor tmerz@bloomberg.net Executive Editor dmoss@bloomberg.net Malaysian parliamentary elections are due by April.
+1-212-617-2309 +1-202-624-1881
APR Nepal will hold elections in April-May.
Economics Newsletter Editors
FOMC’s two-day meeting will be held starting April 30.
Kevin Depew Nipa Piboontanasawat Chris Kirkham
kdepew2@bloomberg.net npiboontanas@bloomberg.net ckirkham@bloomberg.net
+1-212-617-3131 +852-2977-6628 +44-20-7673-2464 Madagascar presidential election will be held on May 8.
MAY
Jennifer Rossa Scott Johnson Philippine general elections are due on May 13.
jrossa@bloomberg.net sjohnson166@bloomberg.net
+1-212-617-8074 +852-2977-4702
Rob Williams Anthony Richardson Iran’s presidential election is scheduled for June 14.
rwilliams80@bloomberg.net arichardso21@bloomberg.net
G8 leader summit from June 17.
+1-212-617-8844 +852-2977-4673
Eurogroup/Ecofin meeting commences June 21.
Staff Economists JUN
Tunisia general elections will be held on Jun. 23.
Joseph Brusuelas Tamara Henderson David Powell
jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net thenderson14@bloomberg.net dpowell24@bloomberg.net Zimbabwe presidential election likely sometime after May.
+1-212-617-7664 +65-6212-1140 +44-20-7073-3769 FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, will be held June 18-19.
Richard Yamarone Michael McDonough Niraj Shah
ryamarone@bloomberg.net mmcdonough10@bloomberg.net nshah185@bloomberg.net
Croatia joins the European Union on July 1.
+1-212-617-8737 +852-2977-6733 +44-20-7330-7383
JUL Cambodia parliamentary elections will be held on July 28.
Designers
FOMC meeting will be held July 30-31.
Katie Porter Rose Marie Constantino Andy Hodgson
kporter7@bloomberg.net rconstant2@bloomberg.net ahodgson9@bloomberg.net AUG World Games 2013 will be held in Cali, Colombia from July 25 to Aug. 4.
212-617-6099 212-617-4484 +44-20-7392-0373
Ian Maready Pekka Aalto Steven Usher German general elections are due between Sept. 1 and Oct. 27.
imaready@bloomberg.net pekka2@bloomberg.net susher8@bloomberg.net
212-617-3761 +852-2977-6013 +44-20-3525-8465
SEPT Norway parliamentary election is scheduled for Sept. 9.
FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, will be held Sep. 17-18.
Newsletter Business Manager Advertising Reprints & Permissions
Nick Ferris bbrief@bloomberg.net Lori Husted Azerbaijan presidential election will be held in October.
nferris2@bloomberg.net 212-617-6975 lori.husted@theygsgroup.com
OCT Georgia presidential election will be held in October.
212-617-6975 717-505-9701
FOMC meeting will be held Oct. 29-30.
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Chile presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 17.
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DEC FOMC meeting, featuring updated economic projections, will be held Dec. 17-18.

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FORECASTER RANKINGS by Bloomberg Rankings

Top Forecasters of Major Economies
U.S. Economy Chinese Economy
Rank Forecaster Firm Score Rank Forecaster Firm Score

1 Christophe Barraud Market Securities Paris 61.16 1 Song Yu Goldman Sachs Group 65.44
2 Joshua Shapiro Maria Fiorini Ramirez 58.39 2 Yao Wei Societe Generale Asia 64.31
3 Bernd Weidensteiner/Christoph Balz Commerzbank 57.43 3 Ting Lu Bank of America Merrill Lynch 59.78

4 Rudolf Besch / Marina Luetje DekaBank 57.37 4 Chang Jian Barclays 57.72

5 Dean Maki Barclays 56.92 5 Yao Shaohua Hang Seng Bank 57.71

6 Christoph Schroeter Bayerische Landesbank 56.91 6 Chen Xingdong BNP Paribas Securities Asia 55.46

7 Gregorio De Felice* Intesa Sanpaolo 56.68 7 Stephen Green Standard Chartered 54.47

8 James O'Sullivan High Frequency Economics 56.35 8 Connie Tse Forecast 54.04

9 Lou Crandall / Bill Jordan Wrightson ICAP 56.08 9 Mark Williams Capital Economics 53.62

10 David Greenlaw Morgan Stanley 55.89 10 Xie Dongming Oversea-Chinese Banking 53.24

Euro-Zone Economy U.K. Economy
Rank Forecaster Firm Score Rank Forecaster Firm Score

1 Andreas Scheuerle / Peter Leonhardt DekaBank 64.55 1 Adam Chester/David Page/Nikesh Sawjani Lloyds Banking Group 60.10
2 Jens Kramer NordLB 63.43 2 Slavena Nazarova Credit Agricole 59.50
3 Martin van Vliet ING Groep 63.32 3 Brian Hilliard Societe Generale 59.08

4 Ken Wattret* BNP Paribas 63.04 4 Alan Clarke Scotiabank Europe 56.45

5 Laura Cavallaro Aletti Gestielle SGR 61.89 5 Ross Walker Royal Bank of Scotland 56.12

6 Gerd Hassel BHF-Bank 61.85 6 Philip Shaw/Victoria Clarke Investec Securities 56.08

7 Daniel Hartmann* Bantleon Bank 61.58 7 Sarah Hewin Standard Chartered 56.05

8 Duncan Devries NIBC Bank 60.98 8 Howard Archer IHS Global Insight 56.04

9 Frederik Ducrozet Credit Agricole 60.41 9 Philip Rush Nomura International 55.87

10 Sarah Hewin / Thomas Costerg Standard Chartered 57.76 10 Danielle Haralambous 4CAST 54.36

Japanese Economy
METHODOLOGY: To identify the top forecasters for these coun-
Rank Forecaster Firm Score tries and regions, we used estimates submitted to Bloomberg. We
considered two years of data for monthly indicators, with a forecast
1 Junko Nishioka* RBS Securities Japan 61.10 minimum requirement of 15 out of 24 forecasts, a minimum of two
2 Brendan Brown* Mitsubishi UFJ Securities 60.51 consecutive forecasts within the last six months, and at least one
forecast in the last three periods. For quarterly indicators such as
3 Yoshiki Shinke* Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute 60.31 GDP, we looked at two years of forecasts; to qualify, a forecaster had
4 Masaaki Kanno JPMorgan Securities Asia 58.32 to have a minimum of five out of eight forecasts. For the last period,
we used the most recent one for which data were available. Bloom-
5 Shen Jianguang* Mizuho Securities Asia 56.44 berg assigns a score between zero and 100 to economists reflecting
6 Naoki Murakami Monex 56.11 the accuracy of their historical forecasts. Economists with lower fore-
cast errors relative to other economists receive higher scores, and
7 Tomoru Kakinuma Daiwa SB Investments 55.83 vice versa. Ranks are shown for the top 10 economists who meet
8 Akiyoshi Takumori Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management 55.57 inclusion rules — top 20 in the lists of best overall forecasters — or
20 percent of qualified economists, whichever is lower.
9 Kyohei Morita Barclays 55.54

10 Hisashi Yamada* Japan Research Institute 55.28 *Chief economist. Forecast submitted without attribution.

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Orange Book
Corporate Executives Project U.S. Housing Improvement, Continued Challenges in Europe
Richard there to suggest anything but continued better than expected end market condi-
Yamarone conservative planning at best.” tions. Of course we still face some other
significant headwinds in 2013.”
Bloomberg Economist GE [GE] Earnings Call 10/19/12: “I think
we’re kind of looking at 2013 being kind of Eaton Corp. [ETN] Earnings Call
like 2012, with the big variable being the 10/31/12: “[O]ur general view is that we
fiscal cliff.” will continue to see the U.S. in what we’re
calling a gradual economic recovery,
Visa [V] Earnings Call 10/31/12: “The with a weaker early part of the year in
trends in the past two quarters suggest 2013, and then some better activity in the
CEOs, commenting on the economic outlook in economic assumptions around 2013 second half. In Europe, we’re continuing to
corporate conference calls, suggested that they were too optimistic. Many of the same believe that we’ll see these soggy condi-
see a possible housing recovery in the U.S. An uncertainties remain. As we look ahead tions through the first half of next year.
improvement in China is also anticipated, while into 2013, growing uncertainty in the And in Asia, I think maybe best typified by
European economic activity is expected to be U.S. and world economy has precipitat-
challenging and flat. comments around the Chinese economy,
ed a slowdown in domestic and cross- we too are watching closely the sitting of
Many executives say the U.S. recovery will border spending.” the new government, what actions will re-
continue, albeit with a pace of growth that is
modest at best. Marriott [MAR] Earnings Call 10/4/12: ally happen post-Chinese New Year.”
Caterpillar predicts global economic growth of “In Europe, the big 2013 story will likely PPG Industries [PPG] Earnings Call
2.7 percent in 2013. continue to be the economy as many 10/18/12: “[R]ight now we haven’t seen
countries struggle with sovereign debt a turnaround in Europe and we’re not
burdens, austerity programs, and modest expecting one as we move into 2013.”
economic growth. We will also face tough
Caterpillar [CAT] Earnings Call 10/22/12: comparisons to many 2012 special events Weyerhaeuser [WY] Earnings Call
“You can boil down what we’re thinking including the Olympics, the Euro Cup 10/26/12: “While today’s construction
about 2013 to a short statement, and that Championship, and a record-breaking levels are still low by historic standards,
goes both for economic environment and 2012 fair schedule in Germany.” all forecasts point to continued recovery in
sales, and that statement is steady as she 2013, as we begin to return to long-term
Norfolk Southern [NSC] Earnings Call trend levels that are needed to house a
goes, not much change from 2012. As we 10/23/12: “Looking ahead, we expect
look forward, on the positive side, in many growing number of U.S. households.”
weaker overall fundamentals in most of
countries around the world, monetary and our markets through the rest of the year MGM Resorts [MGM] Earnings Call
credit policies have eased over the past and into the first half of 2013... [D]ramatic 10/31/12: “Looking out into 2013, we’re
year, and we do expect that to continue changes in the export coal market due to very encouraged to see that convention
into 2013. However, economic growth weaker demand for both met and steam bookings, our pace is up over 10 percent
has been slow to respond, and we’re coal into Europe and Asia will continue year-over-year with rate up. And although
not expecting any improvement in world to present a challenging environment for it’s early, 2014 pace is even stronger.”
economic growth until maybe the sec- export volume and export pricing.”
ond half of 2013. And even then, for the Johnson Controls [JCI] Earnings Call
full year, we’re only expecting economic CSX Corp. [CSX] Earnings Call 10/17/12: 10/30/12: “European economy will provide
growth for the world of about 2.7 percent, “Domestic utility volumes are expected to challenges across all of our businesses
and that’s just a couple of tenths of a face continued challenges due to lower in 2013, while in Asia we expect slower
point above what we’re expecting for this natural gas prices, above-normal inven- growth, but we still see good growth,
year. In the developed world, we continue tory levels, and environmental regulations. projecting that the weather patterns of last
to expect growth at levels that are well Headwinds should begin to moderate year do not repeat and that there will be a
below potential, at about 1.5 percent in somewhat but will continue well into 2013.” moderate improvement in North American
total for the developed world, with about 2 aftermarket battery sales.”
United Technologies [UTX] Earnings
percent growth in the U.S., and the euro
Call 10/23/12: “We expect Europe to be
zone close to 0 percent. We think Brazil
essentially flat next year, and we expect
will continue to improve some and that
the declines in the U.S. defense spending
China’s growth rates will improve to about
to continue, even without the impact of the
8.5 percent.”
potential sequestration. Bottom line is that
we’re confident in our cost reduction and To see Orange Book postings on the
Honeywell [HON] Earnings Call 10/19/12:
program execution and we have signifi- Bloomberg terminal type NI ORANGE-
“Turning to 2013, the clarity on the macro
BOOK <go>
side is still murky. There’s nothing out cant operating leverage, should we see

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CENTRAL BANK MONITOR by Michael McDonough, Bloomberg Economist

Easing May Continue on Europe, U.S., Japan Concerns
For every increase in interest rates by central banks in 2012, policy makers cut rates 5 ½ times. Global central banks are likely to maintain an
easing bias going into 2013 on continued stress in Europe, uncertainty regarding the U.S. fiscal situation and worsening economic conditions
in Japan. Ongoing quantitative easing from Group of Seven central banks will probably continue to help determine global economic condi-
tions for the foreseeable future, especially as Japan’s new leaders may be preparing to expand the country’s program substantially to fight
lingering deflation. Of the 53 central banks surveyed, Brazil’s cut the most in 2012, with rates falling 375 basis points. Click here for chart.

The People’s Bank of Chi-
na is likely to remain on hold Bloomberg Brief Global Central Bank Monitor
for the foreseeable future Next Policy 3M 6M 1Y CPI 3M CPI Prior Est. Est. Est. Est.
as the government enacts Policy Rate Ticker Country Meets Rate Chg Chg Chg y/y Chg Target 12M 1Q13 2Q13 3Q11 4Q13
targeted fiscal stimulus to APDR1T Curncy Argentina 10.45% 75 75 35 10.6%
RBATCTR Index Australia 2/5 3.00% -50 -75 -150 2.0% 2.0-3.0 2.88% 2.75% 2.75% 2.75%
support growth. The PBOC
BJIRONRR Index Bahrain 2.25% 0 0 0 1.9%
will probably continue to use BZSTSETA Index Brazil 1/16 7.25% -25 -125 -375 5.5% 4.5 +/-2 7.13% 7.13% 7.00% 7.25%
aggressive open-market BUBIRATE Index Bulgaria 1/31 0.03% 0 -13 -19 3.9%
operations — especially CABROVER Index Canada 1/23 1.00% 0 0 0 0.8% 2.0 +/-1 1.00% 1.00% 1.13% 1.13%
reverse repurchase auctions CHOVCHOV Index Chile 1/18 5.00% 0 0 -25 2.1% 3.0 +/-1 5.00% 4.88% 4.88% 5.00%
— to manage financial sec- CHLR12M Index China 6.00% 0 -31 -56 2.0% 4.0P 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%
tor liquidity. A cut to reserve CORRRMIN Index Colombia 1/18 4.50% -25 -75 -25 2.8% 3.0 +/-1 4.50% 4.50% 4.63% 4.63%
CKDRRATE Index Croatia 7.00% 0 0 0 4.4%
requirements is unlikely and
CZBRREPO Index Czech Rep. 0.05% -20 -45 -70 2.7% 2.0 +/-1 0.13% 0.13% 0.25% 0.25%
may only occur with a signifi- DEBRDISC Index Denmark 0.00% 0 -25 -75 2.3% 0.13% 0.25% 0.25% 0.13%
cant, prolonged increase in EGBRLR Index Egypt 10.25% 0 0 0 4.3%
interbank rates. EURR002W Index Euro zone 1/10 0.75% 0 -25 -25 2.2% <2.0 0.63% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63%
HKBASE Index Hong Kong 0.50% 0 0 0 3.7%
HBBRATE Index Hungary 5.75% -100 -125 -75 5.2% 3.0 5.63% 5.50% 5.50% 5.38%
Japan’s new government ICBRANN Index Iceland 2/6 6.00% 25 25 125 4.2% 6.00% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
under Prime Minister Shinzo RSPOYLD Index India 7.00% 0 0 -50 9.6% 6.63% 6.50% 6.38% 6.50%
IDBIRATE Index Indonesia 1/10 5.75% 0 0 -25 4.3% 4.5 +/-1 5.75% 5.75% 5.88% 6.00%
Abe is likely to place signifi-
ISBRATE Index Israel 1.75% -50 -50 -100 1.4% 1.0-3.0 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 2.13%
cant pressure on the Bank of BOJDTR Index Japan 1/22 0.10% 0 0 0 -0.2% 1.0 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
Japan to double its inflation JORRRATE Index Jordan 4.75% 0 0 50 5.0%
target to 2 percent, which KIBODISC Index Kuwait 2.00% -50 -50 -50 2.1%
would likely force the central LTRFREF Index Latvia 2.50% -100 -100 -100 1.6%
bank to enlarge its asset pur- LREPRR Index Lebanon 10.00% 0 0 0 10.2%
chase program substantially. MAOPRATE Index Malaysia 1/31 3.00% 0 0 0 1.3% 3.00% 3.13% 3.13% 3.13%
MXONBR Index Mexico 1/18 4.50% 0 0 0 4.2% 3.0 +/-1 4.50% 4.50% 4.63% 4.63%
Japan’s national CPI was MOBRRC Index Morocco 3/26 3.00% 0 0 -25 1.6%
minus 0.2 percent year-on- NZOCRS Index New Zealand 2.50% 0 0 0 0.8% 1.0-3.0 2.50% 2.63% 2.75% 3.00%
year in November, the sixth NOBRDEP Index Norway 1.50% 0 0 -25 1.1% 2.5 1.50% 1.50% 1.63% 1.63%
consecutive month of defla- OCBOREPO Index Oman 1.00% 0 0 -100 3.2%
tion. BOJ Governor Masaaki PAPRSBP Index Pakistan 2/5 9.50% -100 -250 -250 7.9%
Shirakawa’s five-year term PRRRONUS Index Peru 1/11 4.25% 0 0 0 2.7% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%
ends on April 8. PPCBON Index Philippines 1/24 3.50% -25 -50 -100 2.8% 4.0 +/-1 3.38% 3.38% 3.50% 3.63%
PORERATE Index Poland 4.25% -50 -50 -25 2.8% 2.5 +/-1 3.75% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
QAIRRR Index Qatar 4.50% 0 0 0 1.4%
ROKEPOL Index Romania 5.25% 0 0 -75 4.6% 3.0 +/-1
In 2012, the U.S. Federal RREFRATE Index Russia 8.25% 0 25 25 6.6% 6.0-7.0 8.38% 8.25% 8.25% 8.00%
Reserve linked future policy SRREPO Index Saudi Arabia 2.00% 0 0 0 3.4%
to specific unemployment SIBCON Index Singapore 0.03% 1 0 1 3.6%
and inflation levels, in addi- SARPRT Index South Africa 1/24 5.00% 0 -50 -50 5.6% 3.0-6.0 4.88% 4.88% 4.88% 4.75%
tion to expanding quantitative KORP7DR Index South Korea 1/11 2.75% -25 -50 -50 1.4% 2.0-4.0 2.63% 2.63% 2.75% 2.75%
SWRRATEI Index Sweden 2/13 1.00% -25 -50 -100 -0.1% 2 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
easing. The U.S. unemploy- SZLTTR Index Switzerland 3/14 0.00% 0 0 0 -0.4% <2.0P
ment rate fell to 7.7 percent TAREDSC Index Taiwan 3/21 1.88% 0 0 0 1.6% 1.88% 1.88% 2.00% 2.00%
in November from a high of BTRR1DAY Index Thailand 1/9 2.75% -25 -25 -75 3.6% 0.5-3.0 2.63% 2.63% 2.75% 2.88%
10 percent in October 2009. TUBR1WRA Index Turkey 1/22 5.50% -25 -25 6.2% 5.5 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.25%
The Fed has promised not to CUAE1-7 Index U.A.E. 1.00% 0 0 0 0.5%
tighten while unemployment UKRBDIS Index Ukraine 7.50% 0 0 -25 -0.2%
UKBRBASE Index U.K. 1/10 0.50% 0 0 0 2.7% 2.0 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
is above 6.5 percent. It’s un-
FDTR Index U.S. 1/31 0.25% 0 0 0 1.8% 1.5-2.0P 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
clear how policy makers will VNBOLOAN Index Venezuela 16.24% -71 -60 -9 18.2%
account for a sharp decline VNDIBASE Index Vietnam 9.00% 0 0 0 6.8%
in the labor participation rate, Source: Bloomberg
which may conceal actual
unemployment levels.
Click here for notes.

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Market Indicators By Michael McDonough, Bloomberg Economist

MSCI EQUITY INDEXES 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS
Net foreign investment YoY 52W Average 52W LAST YoY 52W Average 52W
TICKER COUNTRY LAST PRICE TICKER COUNTRY
into the Philippine %Chg Min Last Max YIELD BPS Min Last Max
stock market totaled Asia/Pacific Asia/Pacific
MXAU Index Australia 962.4 15.7% 806 962 GACGB10 Index Australia 3.36% -47.6 2.8 4.3
$2.5 billion in 2012, MXCN Index China 65.6 20.7% 52 66 GCNY10YR Index China 3.59% 15.0 3.2 3.6
helping drive a year- MXHK Index Hong Kong 11562.2 24.9% 9,042 11597 HKGG10Y Index Hong Kong 0.70% -80.9 0.5 1.6
MXID Index Indonesia 5286.7 9.7% 4,264 5291 GIDN10YR Index Indonesia 5.17% -90.9 5.0 6.6
on-year rally of more MXIN Index India 778.4 26.3% 614 778 GIND10YR Index India 7.96% -38.7 8.0 8.8
than 30 percent. MXJP Index Japan 531.2 18.8% 427 539 GJGB10 Index Japan 0.79% -18.6 0.7 1.1
MXKR Index Korea 587.1 9.5% 512 599 GVSK10YR Index Korea 3.13% -67.0 2.9 4.1
Relatively strong do- MXMY Index Malaysia 598.7 7.8% 553 599 MGIY10Y Index Malaysia 3.48% -22.0 3.4 3.7
mestic fundamentals, MXPH Index Philippines 983.2 35.6% 734 983 PDSF10YR Index Philippines 4.40% -120.8 4.3 6.2
MXSG Index Singapore 1707.3 19.0% 1,429 1707 MASB10Y Index Singapore 1.34% -29.0 1.3 1.8
coupled with upgrades MXLK Index Sri Lanka 602.3 16.3% 486 633 GGSL10YR Index Sri Lanka 11.78% 152.4 10.0 14.8
of credit ratings from TAMSCI Index Taiwan 282.0 11.0% 245 289 GVTW10YR Index Taiwan 1.16% -12.6 1.1 1.3
MXTH Index Thailand 521.7 28.3% 406 522 GVTL10YR Index Thailand 3.60% 30.9 3.2 3.9
Moody’s Investors MXVI Index Vietnam 523.0 18.4% 420 606 GGVN10YR Index Vietnam 10.20% -230.0 9.6 12.7
Service and Standard North America North America
& Poor’s, helped push MXUS Index U.S. 1396.3 14.6% 1,220 1399 USGG10YR Index U.S. 1.83% -11.5 1.4 2.4
MXCA Index Canada 1577.9 2.9% 1,413 1602 GCAN10YR Index Canada 1.87% -7.2 1.6 2.3
down the Philippine MXMX Index Mexico 7354.7 28.1% 5,470 7355 GMXN10YR Index Mexico 5.41% -99.6 5.0 6.4
government’s 10-year South America South America
MXAR Index Argentina 1312.3 -38.5% 948 2538 Argentina
borrowing cost to 4.4 MXBR Index Brazil 2795.2 -5.6% 2,409 3487 GEBR10Y Index Brazil 9.13% -347.7 9.1 11.3
percent. MXCL Index Chile 2441.8 7.2% 2,226 2681 Chile
MXCO Index Colombia 1358.9 27.2% 1,077 1360 COGR10Y Index Colombia 5.49% -211.0 5.5 7.4
MXPE Index Peru 1628.6 15.6% 1,365 1629 GRPE10Y Index Peru 4.09% -267.0 4.1 4.8
Middle East & Africa Middle East & Africa
MXEG Index Egypt 1235.6 57.0% 781 1291 EGPT10Y ARAB Index Egypt 15.10% 14.8 17.3
A last-minute agree- MXIL Index Israel 185.2 -10.0% 180 221 GISR10YR Index Israel 3.96% -59.0 3.9 4.8
ment on the so-called MSEUSJO Index Jordan 103.7 -4.7% 97 114 Jordan
MXNI Index Nigeria 670.2 54.7% 423 670 CTNGN10Y Govt Nigeria 11.70%
fiscal cliff helped push MSEUSTK Index Turkey 649.6 64.0% 389 650 IECM10Y Index Turkey 6.84% -320.0 6.5 10.0
U.S. equities up 16 MXZA Index South Africa 1021.2 20.0% 842 1023 GSAB9YR Index South Africa 6.40% -155.3 6.4 8.2
MXAE Index U.A.E. 224.5 26.5% 169 225 U.A.E.
percent year-on-year, Europe Europe
while continued global Euro Area Euro Area
MXAT Index Austria 116.0 21.1% 86 116 GAGB10YR Index Austria 1.86% -126.6 1.7 3.4
risk aversion and MXBE Index Belgium 63.5 34.0% 46 64 GBGB10YR Index Belgium 2.16% -211.1 2.0 4.6
central bank easing MXEST Index Estonia 855.0 39.6% 605 855 Estonia
are helping keep U.S. MXFI Index Finland 76.9 8.4% 59 79 GFIN10YR Index Finland 1.65% -72.7 1.3 2.5
MXFR index France 103.8 15.3% 83 104 GFRN10 Index France 2.10% -119.2 2.0 3.4
yields at relatively low MXDE Index Germany 109.2 22.5% 84 109 GDBR10 Index Germany 1.45% -45.1 1.2 2.1
levels. MXGR Index Greece 12.9 2.0% 9 17 GGGB10YR Index Greece 11.49% -2297 11.5 37.1
MXIE Index Ireland 26.6 2.4% 24 28 GIGB9YR Index *Ireland (9Y) 4.43% -382.4 4.4 8.1
MXIT Index Italy 50.3 6.7% 38 52 GBTPGR10 Index Italy 4.28% -263.7 4.3 7.2
MXNL Index Netherlands 83.4 15.9% 66 83 GNTH10YR Index Netherlands 1.65% -63.1 1.5 2.6
MXPT Index Portugal 52.1 -2.0% 39 GSPT10YR Index Portugal 6.52% -684.4 6.5 17.4
Led by Estonia and SKSM Index Slovakia 189.8 -11.4% 188 216 GRSK10Y Index Slovakia 2.19% -248.8 2.2 4.8
Belgium with their ad- MXES Index Spain 91.3 -4.3% 65 97 GSPG10YR Index Spain 5.05% -23.2 4.9 7.6
Non-Euro EU Non-Euro EU
vances of more than MXBU Index Bulgaria 100.7 -33.4% 95 154 Bulgaria
35 percent, the euro MXCZ Index Czech Republic 297.4 -7.2% 280 337 CZGB10YR Index Czech Republic 1.93% -167.2 1.8 3.7
MXDK Index Denmark 4557.1 27.5% 3,547 4565 GDGB10YR Index Denmark 1.51% -21 1.0 2.1
zone’s MSCI equity MXHU Index Hungary 1024.9 10.0% 881 1109 GHGB10YR Index Hungary 6.08% -396.0 6.1 10.7
indexes performed RIGSE Index Latvia 402.1 6.8% 363 402 Latvia
VILSE Index Lithuania 363.1 20.1% 302 363 Lithuania
fairly well in the past MXPL Index Poland 1803.7 17.9% 1,415 1806 POGB10YR Index Poland 3.83% -206.0 3.7 5.9
year even as the MXRO Index Romania 543.6 23.1% 436 568 GRRO5YR Index *Romania (5Y) 4.72% -58.4 4.7 6.2
MXSE Index Sweden 8626.1 11.3% 7,217 8647 GSGB10YR Index Sweden 1.66% -4.8 1.1 2.1
recession continues. MXGB Index U.K. 1784.8 5.8% 1,559 1786 GUKG10 Index U.K. 2.00% -3.1 1.4 2.4
While German equi- Non EU Non EU
ties were up almost ICEXI Index Iceland 685.4 15.8% 590 698 Iceland
MXNO Index Norway 2342.0 6.1% 1,984 2440 GNOR10YR Index Norway 2.17% -26.6 1.6 2.6
30 percent, Slovakia’s MXRU Index Russia 820.1 6.4% 657 940 MICXRU10 Index Russia 6.99% -187.7 6.9 9.0
index was the leading MXCH Index Switzerland 906.4 17.7% 741 906 GSWISS10 Index Switzerland 0.56% -17.4 0.4 1.0
MXUK Index Ukraine 143.2 -48.9% 138 297 Ukraine
laggard, losing about
11 percent.

Ukraine’s MSCI index was the leading Newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s A lull in the European debt crisis has led
laggard for non-European Union equities, plans to stoke Japan’s economy through to declines in the 10-year yields of most
dropping almost 50 percent partially due to fiscal and monetary stimulus may eventually countries in the region, which are trading at
a sharp slowdown in economic growth at place some upward pressure on Japan’s low or near their 52-week lows.
the end of last year. borrowing costs.

ECONOMIC WORKBENCH:
Have Our Data Make Your Point

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21


Market Indicators By Michael McDonough, Bloomberg Economist

OTHER INDICATORS CURRENCIES
The five-year U.S. LAST YoY 52W Average 52W TICKER LAST YoY 52W Average 52W
TICKER SPREAD/RATE/INDEX CURRENCY
PRICE bps/% Min Last Max PRICE %CHG Min Last Max
breakeven rate at U.S. Asia/Pacific
2.1 percent remains $$SWAP10 Curncy 10Y US Swap Spread 3.75% -11.9 0.8 21.9 AUD Curncy Australian Dollar 1.05 1.2% 1.0 1.1
USGGBE05 Index 5Y Breakeven Rate 2.10% 50.0 1.6 2.4 CNY Curncy Chinese Renminbi 6.23 1.1% 6.2 6.4
below the 2.5 percent .2Y10Y Index 2Y10Y Spread 157.51 145.3 158.1 HKD Curncy Hong Kong Dollar 7.75 0.2% 7.7 7.8
tightening threshold .TED3M Index 3M Ted Spread 23.91 -33.8 20.1 57.6 INR Curncy Indian Rupee 54.49 -2.3% 48.7 57.2
laid out by the Federal .LIBORIOS Index 3M Libor/OIS 16.0 -33.9 15 50 IDR Curncy Indonesian Rupiah 9653.0 -5.5% 8888 9799
.AAABAA Index IG HY Corp Spread 96.00 -46.0 96.0 152.0 JPY Curncy Japanese Yen 86.89 -11.7% 76.2 87.3
Reserve on Dec. 18. MUNSMT10 Index Muni Spread 99.67 5.0 85.3 126.4 MYR Curncy Malaysian Ringgit 3.03 4.0% 3.0 3.2
Eurozone NZD Curncy New Zealand Dollar 0.83 5.4% 0.8 0.8
EUR003M Index 3M Euribor 0.19% -1.1 0 1 PHP Curncy Philippine Peso 40.74 7.4% 40.7 44.1
EONIA Index EONIA 0.06% -0.3 0.1 0.4 SGD Curncy Singapore Dollar 1.22 5.0% 1.2 1.3
EUSA10 Index EUR 10Y Swap Rate 1.67% -0.7 1.6 2.4 KRW Curncy South Korean Won 1061.65 8.4% 1062 1185
Europe Non-Euro EU LKR Curncy Sri Lankan Rupee 127.50 -10.6% 113.8 134.0
BUBOR03M Index Hungary BUBOR 5.75% -1.5 5.8 7.7 TWD Curncy Taiwan Dollar 29.00 4.4% 29.0 30.3
WIBO3M Index Poland WIBO 3M 3.99% -0.9 4.0 5.0 THB Curncy Thai Baht 30.36 3.0% 30.3 31.9
BP0003M Index U.K. LIBOR GBP 3M 0.52% -0.6 0.5 1.1 VND Curncy Vietnamese Dong 20843 0.9% 20775 21035
Corporate yuan-de- Europe Non-EU Europe
nominated securities MOIB91 Index Russia Moscow Interbank 7.75% 0.4 0.0 7.9 GBP Curncy British Pound 1.62 3.2% 1.5 1.6
SF0003M Index Switzerland LIBOR CHF 0.01% 0.0 0.01 0.11 CZK Curncy Czech Koruna 19.30 2.1% 18.4 21.2
sold outside mainland China DKK Curncy Danish Krone 5.69 0.1% 5.5 6.2
China gained 6.2 SHIF3M Index 3M SHIBOR 3.90% -157.5 3.6 5.6 EUR Curncy Euro 1.31 0.4% 1.2 1.3
CCSDO2 Curncy 2Y CNY IRS 2.85% -15.4 2.5 3.3 HUF Curncy Hungarian Forint 222.3 9.0% 212 249
percent in 2012, more BOCRYLD Index Avg Dim Sum Yield 4.59% -127.0 4.6 5.9 ISK Curncy Iceland Krona 128.89 -5.5% 118.9 131.0
than returns on local- Japan NOK Curncy Norwegian Krone 5.57 6.2% 5.5 6.1
currency company JY0003M Index LIBOR 3M 0.17% -2.1 0.2 0.2 PLN Curncy Polish Zloty 3.12 9.8% 3.1 3.6
TI0003M Index 3M TIBOR 0.31% -2.7 0.3 0.3 RON Curncy Romanian Leu 3.37 -1.8% 3.2 3.8
bonds from any other JYSW2 Curncy 2Y Yen Swap 0.22% -16.1 0.2 0.4 RUB Curncy Russian Ruble 30.33 4.5% 29.0 33.7
Asian country, accord- Other Global SEK Curncy Swedish Krona 6.52 4.6% 6.5 7.3
ing to HSBC. AU0003M Index Australia 3M LIBOR 3.24% -142.4 3.2 4.7 CHF Curncy Swiss Franc 0.92 1.0% 0.9 1.0
CIBO03M Index Denmark CIBOR 3M 0.28% -72.5 0.3 1.0 UAH Curncy Ukranian Hryvnia 8.02 0.2% 8.0 8.2
JPEIPLSP Index EMBI+ Spread 236.32 -140.2 236.3 430.1 Americas
HIHD03M Index Hong Kong 3M HIBOR 0.40% 1.8 0.4 0.4 ARS Curncy Argentina Peso 4.92 -12.7% 4.3 4.9
JIIN3M Index Indonesia 3M JIBOR 4.99% -27.2 4.1 5.2 BRL Curncy Brazilian Real 2.05 -10.6% 1.7 2.1
NSERO3M Index India 3M MIBOR 8.93% -81.0 8.6 11.5 CAD Curncy Canadian Dollar 0.99 2.4% 1.0 1.0
SIBF3M Index Singapore SIBOR 3M 0.38% -1.2 0.4 0.4 CLP Curncy Chilean Peso 474.35 8.0% 470.2 518.5
KWSWOOC Curncy S. Korea 3M OIS 2.81% -46.0 2.8 3.3 COP Curncy Colombian Peso 1763.50 9.4% 1755.0 1880.5
TRLIB3M Index Turkey TRLIBOR 3m 5.79% -555.5 5.7 11.5 MXN Curncy Mexican Peso 12.78 6.8% 12.6 14.4
COMMODITIES PEN Curncy Peruvian Sol 2.55 5.7% 2.5 2.7
TICKER COMMODITY
LAST YoY 52W Average 52W Middle East & Africa
PRICE %Chg Min Last Max EGP Curncy Egyptian Pound 6.42 -6.0% 6.0 6.4
A deal on the so- Agricultural IRR Curncy Iranian Rial 12281 -8.8% 11197 12405
called fiscal cliff in the C 1 Comdty Corn 686.00 4.2% 551.5 831.3 ILS Curncy Israeli Shekel 3.74 2.2% 3.7 4.1
U.S., coupled with an KC1 Comdty Coffee 150.50 -33.8% 133.5 234.9 MAD Curncy Moroccan Dirham 8.51 0.2% 8.3 9.1
SB1 Comdty Sugar 19.63 -19.9% 18.5 26.5 NGN Curncy Nigerian Naira 156.20 2.6% 156.0 163.5
improving economic W 1 Comdty Wheat 753.75 14.7% 591.3 943.3 ZAR Curncy South African Rand 8.59 -6.1% 7.4 8.9
outlook in China, has Metals SYP Curncy Syrian Pound 71.04 -23.8% 54.1 71.2
helped lead a year- LA1 Comdty Aluminum 2132.25 6.8% 1809 2320 TRY Curncy Turkish Lira 1.78 5.1% 1.7 1.9
HG1 Comdty Copper 372.15 5.5% 328.5 397.9 AED Curncy UAE Dirham 3.67 0.0% 3.7 3.7
end rally in copper, GC1 Comdty Gold 1677.50 4.8% 1537 1794 EUR Crosses
which may continue SI1 Comdty Silver 31.0 11.0% 26.2 37.1 EURSEK Curncy EUR/SEK 8.55 4.2% 8.2 9.2
Energy EURGBP Curncy EUR/GBP 1 2.8% 1 1
as Chinese growth CO1 Comdty Crude (Brent) 111.90 -0.2% 89.2 126.2 EURNOK Curncy EUR/NOK 7.30 5.8% 7.3 7.7
stabilizes this year. CL1 Comdty Crude (WTI) 92.57 -10.1% 77.7 109.8 EURCHF Curncy EUR/CHF 1.21 0.6% 1.2 1.2
XB1 Comdty Gasoline 278.8 1.4% 255.0 341.7 EURJPY Curncy EUR/JPY 113.82 -12.0% 94.3 115.2
NG1 Comdty Natural Gas 3.23 7.8% 1.9 3.9 JPY Crosses
Indexes AUDJPY Curncy AUD/JPY 91.20 -12.7% 75.7 91.7
CRY Index CRB Index 297.54 -5.1% 267.2 325.9 GBPJPY Curncy GBP/JPY 140 -14.4% 118 142
BDIY Index Baltic Dry Index 698.00 -57.0% 647 1426 EURJPY Curncy EUR/JPY 113.82 -12.0% 94.3 115.2
CMDISPOT Index Bloomberg Global Spot Price 202.65 1.4% 190.0 209.9 CHFJPY Curncy CHF/JPY 94.15 -12.6% 78.5 95.2
DBLCDBAT Index DBIQ Diversified Ag 229.0 -1.9% 209.2 250.1 NOKJPY Curncy NOK/JPY 15.60 -16.8% 12.7 15.7

Analysts forecast West Texas Intermedi- The yen has depreciated by about 10 Analysts forecast the euro will depreciate to
ate crude prices will climb only modestly in percent, reaching its lowest level since July $1.27 by the end of 2013, compared with a
2013, averaging $94.25 a barrel, about $2 2010, following the announcement on Nov. current rate of $1.32. The euro has been es-
above the current spot price. WTI prices fell 14 of an early election in Japan. sentially flat on a year-on-year basis, rising
by almost 10 percent year-on-year. only 0.7 percent.

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Economic Fundamentals by Joshua Robinson

Y/Y GDP % Change, Actual and Forecast for 2012, 2013
United States Euro Area United Kingdom
3.5 0.0 1.2

3.0 -0.1 1.0

0.8
2.5 -0.2
0.6
2.0 -0.3
0.4
1.5 -0.4
0.2
1.0 -0.5
0.0
0.5 -0.6 -0.2

0.0 -0.7 -0.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (est) 2013 (est) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (est) 2013 (est) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (est) 2013 (est)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
ECFC<GO>: Economic Forecasts BloombergBriefs.com ECFC<GO>: Economic Forecasts BloombergBriefs.com ECFC<GO>: Economic Forecasts BloombergBriefs.com

Germany France Italy
1.4 0.3 0.0

1.2
-0.5
0.2
1.0
-1.0
0.8 0.2
-1.5
0.6
0.1
-2.0
0.4
0.1
0.2 -2.5

0.0 0.0 -3.0

Spain Greece China
0.0 0.0 8.2

-1.0
8.0
-0.5
-2.0
7.8
-1.0 -3.0

-4.0 7.6
-1.5
-5.0
7.4
-6.0
-2.0
7.2
-7.0

-2.5 -8.0 7.0

Japan South Korea Australia
8.0 4.0 5.0

3.5 4.5
6.0
4.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
2.5 3.0
2.0 2.0 2.5

1.5 2.0
0.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
-2.0
0.5
0.5
-4.0 0.0 0.0

Brazil India Russia
4.0 5.7 6.0

3.5
5.6 5.0
3.0
5.5 4.0
2.5

2.0 5.4 3.0

1.5
5.3 2.0
1.0
5.2 1.0
0.5

0.0 5.1 0.0

Visit ECFC <GO> for more

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21



Current Account As % Of GDP, Actual and Forecast for 2012, 2013
-2.8 1.4 0.0
1.2
-2.9 -0.5
1.0
-2.9 -1.0
0.8
-3.0 0.6 -1.5

-3.0 0.4 -2.0
0.2
-3.1 -2.5
0.0
-3.1 -3.0
-0.2
-3.2 -0.4 -3.5

6.4 -1.8 0.0

6.2 -1.8
-0.5
6.0 -1.9
-1.0
5.8 -1.9

5.6 -2.0 -1.5

5.4 -2.0
-2.0
5.2 -2.1
-2.5
5.0 -2.1

4.8 -2.2 -3.0

Spain Greece China
0.0 0.0 2.6

-0.5 -1.0 2.6
-2.0 2.5
-1.0
-3.0
2.5
-1.5 -4.0
2.4
-2.0 -5.0
2.4
-2.5 -6.0
2.3
-7.0
-3.0
-8.0 2.3
-3.5 -9.0 2.2
-4.0 -10.0 2.2

Japan South Korea Australia
1.8 4.5 0.0
1.6 4.0 -0.5

1.4 3.5
-1.0
-1.5
1.2 3.0
-2.0
1.0 2.5
-2.5
0.8 2.0
-3.0
0.6 1.5 -3.5
0.4 1.0 -4.0
0.2 0.5 -4.5
0.0 0.0 -5.0

Brazil India Russia
0.0 0.0 7.0

-0.5 -1.0 6.0

5.0
-1.0 -2.0
4.0
-1.5 -3.0
3.0
-2.0 -4.0
2.0

-2.5 -5.0 1.0

-3.0 -6.0 0.0


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21



Unemployment Rate, %, Actual and Forecast for 2012, 2013
8.4 12.2 8.3
8.3 12.0
8.2 8.2
11.8
8.1 11.6
8.1
8.0 11.4
7.9 11.2 8.0
7.8 11.0
7.7 7.9
10.8
7.6 10.6
7.8
7.5 10.4
7.4 10.2 7.7

7.1 10.7 12.0
10.6
7.0 11.5
10.5
7.0 10.4
11.0
6.9 10.3
10.2 10.5
6.9
10.1
10.0
6.8 10.0
9.9
6.8 9.5
9.8
6.7 9.7 9.0

Spain Japan
26.5 4.6

26.0
4.5
25.5
4.4
25.0

24.5 4.3

24.0
4.2
23.5
4.1
23.0

22.5 4.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (est) 2013 (est) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (est) 2013 (est)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
ECFC<GO>: Economic Forecasts BloombergBriefs.com ECFC<GO>: Economic Forecasts BloombergBriefs.com


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