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Bloomberg BRIEF Economics Asia is a new, groundbreaking daily publication written by six leading economists providing a clear, concise snapshot every morning of all the key regional economic …

Bloomberg BRIEF Economics Asia is a new, groundbreaking daily publication written by six leading economists providing a clear, concise snapshot every morning of all the key regional economic information with proprietary data, charts and commentary, all for a fraction of the cost of providing it in-house.

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  • 1. Economics Monday 12.10.12 BRIEF Asia www.bloombergbriefs.comQuote of the Day China Trade, Japan Current Account, North Korea“The Chinese economy is now in a sweetspot and can stay in the sweet spot” WHAT TO WATCH: China may release trade and loan data ■■ for November as early as today. Chinese industrial outputthrough the first half of 2013. ASIAN DAYBOOK: and retail sales exceeded forecasts while inflation rebounded — Lu Ting, head of Greater China economics at By Nipa Piboontanasawat from a 33-month low. Japan’s economy probably contracted an Bank of America in Hong Kong annualized 3.3 percent in the third quarter, less than the initial estimate of 3.5 percent, 7:50 a.m. All euro-area countries will post positive economic growth in 2014, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said. ■■ECONOMICS: Japan’s current account, 7:50 a.m. Australian loans, 8:30 a.m. Ja- pan’s consumer confidence, 1 p.m. South Korea’s producer prices fell 0.2 percent inEQUITY MARKET November from a year earlier, the first decline in four months. New Zealand manufactur- 1-Day Change (%) Trading Volume (Standard Deviation From 6-Month Avg.) ing volumes rose 2.6 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months. Hang Seng ■■ GOVERNMENT: North Korea said it may delay a planned rocket launch, Korea Cen- tral News Agency reported. Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party Leader Shinzo Abe said Nikkei 225 he would decide whether to increase a sales tax next year based on economic conditions DAX in the second quarter. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti told the head of state he has CAC 40 lost support in Parliament and intends to resign. FTSE 100 ■■MARKETS: Equity options traded on the National Stock Exchange of India rose 36 percent in the first half, the most among the 10 largest bourses. (All times are H.K. time.) Bovespa NASDAQ S&P 500 Quoted  By Scott Johnson AND Nipa Piboontanasawat, Bloomberg Brief Dow Jones China Reforms May Strengthen U.S. Ties, Hormats Says -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 China’s exports Chinas Trade Surplus Has Fallen From Peak in 2008 are struggling on the 300 50 250 Trade Surplus with U.S. ($BN)calendar (hong kong Time) back on an appreci- 250 40 200 ating currency, rising 30 time event survey PRIOR labor costs and slug- 200JN 7:50 GDP QoQ -0.80% -0.90% 20 150 gish global demand. 150JN 7:50 GDP Annualized -3.30% -3.50% Shipments probably 10 100JN 7:50 Current Account ¥235.6B ¥503.6B climbed 9 percent in 100 0JN 7:50 Current Account Bal YOY -58.80% -68.70% November, slowing 50 50 -10JN 7:50 Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY -- 1.10% from an 11.6 percentJN 7:50 Bank Lending In-Trusts YoY -- 0.90% 0 -20 0 increase in October, 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 *2012 *2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011AU 8:30 Home Loans MoM 3.00% 0.90% a report may showAU 8:30 Investment Lending -- 8.60% as early as today. Total Trade Surplus ($BN) Total Exports YoY% (RHS) Total Imports YoY% (RHS) Source: Bloomberg. *2012=First 10 Months.JN 12:30 Bankruptcies YoY -- 6.00% While China’s an-JN 13:00 Consumer Confidence -- 39.7 nual trade surplus has fallen from its peak in 2008, the country’s trade surplus with the U.S. has sur- passed the level in 2008 and reached a record $202 billion last year. The gap hasAsia FX Scorecard fueled tensions with the U.S., which has said the yuan remains undervalued.The Bloomberg Brief Asia FX Scorecard See page 2 for quotes from Robert Hormats, U.S. undersecretary of state for eco-favors the Chinese yuan against the nomic growth, energy and the environment, on trade with China and the rest of Asia.U.S. dollar this week. (See page 8.) continued on next page  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
  • 2. 12.10.12 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 2QUOTEDcontinued from previous page Undersecretary of State economy, a more balanced economy, but ment, which was quite substantial, in fact Robert Hormats spoke if one looks more deeply at this, there are — $50 million in a facility in Alabama. The about U.S. trade policy, a number of things that China wants to success of the U.S.-Korean FTA renews and economic engage- do, a number of China’s priorities, that can our determination to lower barriers to trade ment with China and increase opportunities for closer collabora- and enhance opportunities for investment other Asian countries on tion between our two countries and par- throughout the Asia-Pacific region.” Dec. 7 at the Bloomberg ticularly between the American business office in Hong Kong. community and Chinese companies and the Chinese government.” Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor “We want to engage in a more robust way “To achieve many of its goals, including on the broader question of connectivityU.S.-China Cooperation developing what China calls its strategic, across this region. Throughout the Asia- emerging industries, China needs to pur-“Through the U.S.-China Strategic and Eco- Pacific, better connections on infrastructure, chase the best technologies worldwide andnomic Dialogue, as well as other fora like road, rail, telecom, information technology, work with the most innovative global com-the JCCT [Joint Commission on Commerce power, water, et cetera, are going to be panies. Restrictions that limit purchasesand Trade], we’ve focused on building a co- key to Asian growth, and U.S. companies to indigenous technology and indigenousoperative economic partnership with China. can play a very positive role in this area. innovation can in fact jeopardize China’sThe United States welcomes a strong, The U.S. government — not only the State ability to achieve these broad objectives inprosperous and successful China that plays Department, but also the TDA [Trade and these strategic emerging industries.”a key role in world affairs and adheres to Development Agency], Export-Import Bank,international standards. Key elements of Commerce Department, Department ofthe U.S. approach have been, first, to sup- Energy and others — already has done col- Trade With the Association ofport and encourage the integration of China lectively a great deal through cooperation inmore fully into the global rules-based, Southeast Asian Nations APEC [Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation]economic and trading system; second, to “Last year, exports to the Asean coun- and Asean and through the Lower Mekongexpand U.S. exporters access to the Chi- tries together exceeded $76 billion, up Initiative. Ultimately, we want to extend thisnese market; third, to encourage continued 42 percent since 2009 — quite a striking vision from the Pacific to India to developChinese investment into the United States increase. This makes Asean the sixth- further India-Southeast Asian connectiv-and to ensure a level playing field for Ameri- largest destination for U.S. exports after the ity. We’re working with institutions, such ascan investors seeking to invest in China.” EU, Canada, Mexico, China and Japan. the Asian Development Bank, in order to President Obama’s National Export Initia- do this. An Indo-Pacific economic corridor“At the same time, we continue to address tive, or NEI, has been a major factor in this linking the rapidly expanding economiesissues directly affecting American busi- effort because its goal is to double exports of South and Southeast Asia would opennesses attempting to sell to or operate in over a five-year period. We see Asean as new investment opportunities, create jobs,China, such as, for instance, the protec- an important recipient of large numbers of promote peace and strengthen regionaltion of intellectual property rights and increased American exports.” stability and help millions of people in thistrade secrets, where we continue to seek region out of poverty.”significant improvements on the part ofChina. In addition, the expansion of market S. Korean Free Trade Agreementaccess in compliance with China’s WTO “Results since the FTA has entered into Trans-Pacific Partnershipobligations. Third, to end what we see as force, which was in March of this year, bol- “We are making progress toward finalizingmarket-distorting practices by some of ster the benefits of promoting free trade in a far-reaching trade agreement that bringsChina’s state-owned or state-supported the Asia-Pacific region. U.S. manufacturing together some of the largest and fastestenterprises that give them an artificial and agricultural exports to the Republic of growing economies in the Pacific Rim. Thecompetitive advantage vis-a-vis other com- Korea have increased dramatically under TPP will lower barriers, raise standardspanies, including American companies, in this free-trade agreement. For example, and drive long-term growth across thethe American market and other markets U.S. wheat exports to the ROK rose 65 region. However, our goal is not simply toaround the world.” percent from January to August, compared create more growth, as important as that“When we look at China’s five-year plan, to the same period last year. This FTA also is. It is also to foster better, more respon-there clearly are elements there that are is supporting job-creating investment by sible and more sustainable growth by alsodesigned to improve the Chinese econ- Korean firms in the United States, such as establishing strong protections for workersomy, to make China a more harmonious a Korean auto-parts manufacturer’s invest- and for the environment.” COMPARE MARKET VALUATIONS  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
  • 3. 12.10.12 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 3FX TECHNICALS  BY TAMARA HENDERSON, Bloomberg ECONOMISTNear-Term Technicals Favor the AUD and THB TECHNICAL SIGNAL RANK TICKER LAST PRICE OVERALL BOLLINGER 200-DAY 50D VS 200D ADX DMI 14 MACD RSI 9 STOCHASTICS 50-DAY SMA BAND SMA SMA AUDUSD 1.0487 2 range buy buy 1.036 1.030 0.6% NZDUSD 0.8316 1 range buy buy sell 0.820 0.807 1.7% USDCNH 6.2105 0 strong trend sell buy 6.246 6.317 -1.1% USDIDR 9708.0 0 sell buy buy sell 9623 9438 2.0% USDPHP 40.945 0 range sell buy 41.21 42.11 -2.1% USDKRW 1081.6 0 trending sell buy 1096 1129 -3.0% USDJPY 82.490 0 strong trend buy sell 80.24 79.91 0.4% USDINR 54.475 -1 range sell sell buy 53.88 53.76 0.2% USDMYR 3.0557 -1 range sell 3.056 3.096 -1.3% USDSGD 1.2209 -1 range sell 1.223 1.248 -2.0% USDTWD 29.064 -1 trending sell 29.19 29.58 -1.3% EURUSD 1.2889 -1 range sell 1.292 1.279 1.0% USDTHB 30.700 -2 range sell sell 30.69 31.10 -1.3%Source: Bloomberg Updated: Dec. 10, 2012 5:05 a.m. HKT• DMI-14 and MACD favor the AUD and THB against the USD.• RSI-9 and Bollinger Bands set at 2 standard deviations suggest selling USDIDR, against DMI and MACD buy signals.• It is unclear whether USDIDR is trading in an established trend or range, according to ADX.Click here for TECHNICAL NOTES, including the triggers for “buy” and “sell” signals.To re-create or customize this table, enter XLTP Historical Technical Analysis Screener <GO> on your Terminal. Click “Open” to download into Excel.China’s Fiscal Stimulus Helping to Drive Recovery in Growth The Chinese government’s increased in-frastructure investment is having a positive Fiscal Stimulus, Not Fundamental Improvements, Lifting Growth Rail Infrastructure Investment (ls) FAI Residential (rs) FAI Manufacturing (rs)impact on growth. China’s industrial pro- 300% 70%duction growth accelerated to 10.1 percent *y/y 60% 200%year-on-year in November from 9.6 percent 50%the prior month, exceeding the median es- 100% 40%timate of 9.8 percent. Officials will probably 0% 30%need to continue relying on fiscal stimulus 20% -100% 10%to buoy growth next year. Investment data -200% 0%show growth in the manufacturing and real 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012estate sectors — key drivers of China’s 25% 12%economy — remain well below average. China GDP Growth (rs) China IP (ls) 11% 20% Railway-infrastructure investment rose 10%nearly 250 percent annually in October as 15% 9%the government stepped up fiscal mea- 10% 8%sures. This matches the peak following *y/y 7% 5% 6%China’s $600 billion stimulus initiated in 0% 5%2008. Manufacturing investment growth 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012slowed to 19.8 percent annually in Octo- Source: Bloombergber, after averaging 41 percent last year,highlighting lingering weakness in the real China’s GDP growth is set to accelerate ernment support, not a significant improve-economy. Residential fixed-asset invest- in the fourth quarter for the first time in ment in China’s real economy, which stillment slowed to 12.2 percent growth after seven consecutive quarters. Even so, the has substantial overcapacity issues.averaging more than 30 percent last year. primary catalyst is likely to be swelling gov- —Michael McDonough, Bloomberg Economist  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
  • 4. 12.10.12 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 4inside the consensus  By Michael McDonough, Bloomberg EconomistTop Analysts See Smaller Japan’s Current-Account Surplus MARKET CALLSJapan will probably report a current-account surplus of 141.2 billion yen for October, ac- Royal Bank of Canada analysts ledcording to the median forecast of the most accurate economists for the indicator before by Adam Cole said investors shouldtoday’s release. That’s less than the overall median for a surplus of 230.9 billion yen. Ja- buy the yen against the euro and thepan’s weakening external position is likely to lead to additional easing efforts by the Bank dollar next year because politiciansof Japan, which would help depreciate the yen, especially if Shinzo Abe, the front runner will fail to weaken the currency asto become the country’s next prime minister at the Dec. 16 elections, follows through with much market prices suggest. “Politi-his calls for unlimited easing. cal inertia will make it very difficult to deliver the revolutionary change in policy that is expected to usher in a Japans Current-Account Surplus Trends Toward Zero3,500 134 new era of yen weakness,” they said. Current-Account Bal (¥bn,ls) They also advised buying the Aus- Median Forecast (ls)3,000 tralian dollar against its Canadian Low Forecast (ls) 124 equivalent in the first half next year.2,500 High Forecast (ls) USD/JPY (rs) Takeshi Minami, chief economist at2,000 114 Norinchukin Research Institute, said Japan’s five-year yield may fall to 0.11,500 percent. “There is strong speculation 1041,000 that the Bank of Japan will buy four- or five-year securities through its 500 94 asset-purchase fund,” he said. 0 Credit Agricole strategist Frances 84 Cheung predicts the Singapore -500 dollar will be at S$1.19 versus the greenback at the end of 2013.-1,000 74 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jonathan Ravelas, chief market Source: Bloomberg strategist and technical analyst at BDO Unibank, said a Philippine stock rally that sent the benchmarkTop Ranked Economists for Japan’s Current Account gauge to a record is poised to end. “Although the market is already over-rank Analyst firm forecast as of Difference bought, the index still has some gas left to climb up to 5,900 in the short 1 Mitsubishi UFJ Resrch & Consul 174.2 12/7/2012 (56.7) term before reversing its course,” he 2 RBS Securities 103.3 12/7/2012 (127.6) said. “The correction towards 5,400 3 Mizuho Sec. Resrch & Consult 108.2 12/7/2012 (122.7) will likely happen in first quarter of 4 Dai-Ichi Life Research 325.2 12/7/2012 94.3 2013 when investors wait for earn- ings results and economic data.”Most Recent Forecasts Hong Leong Asset Management CEO Geoffrey Ng said Malaysia is Analyst firm forecast as of Difference likely to keep interest rates steady through 2013 as inflation quickens 1 Masayuki Kichikawa Bank of America Merrill Lynch 203.2 12/07/12 (27.7) and the central bank avoids policy 2 Kiichi Murashima Citigroup Global Markets Japan 60.9 12/07/12 (170.0) shifts that may spur capital inflows. 3 Dai-Ichi Life Research 325.2 12/07/12 94.3 Inflation will accelerate when the 4 Daiwa Institute of Research 286.0 12/07/12 55.1 government trims fuel subsidies 5 Masaaki Kanno J.P. Morgan Securities Asia 273.0 12/07/12 42.1 to address its budget deficit afterMedian Number of Economists: 23 230.9 a general election that must taketop ranked median 141.2 place by early 2013, he said. HeLow Credit Agricole 44.0 12/6/2012 (186.9) favors bank deposits over short-High Nomura Securities Research 780.0 12/6/2012 549.1 maturity government bonds.  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
  • 5. 12.10.12 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 5WEEK AHEAD  By Bloomberg NewsCurrencies Format: XXXUSD Curncy, size of labels based on 90-day volatility AROUND THE CLOCK 1.5% (All times are Hong Kong time) 1.0% Europe 3 p.m. Germany reports trade data for October. Exports fell 2.4 percent 0.5% in September from a month earlier,5-Day Change (Dec. 10) the most in nine months, while im- ports dropped 1.6 percent, leaving a 0.0% trade surplus of 16.9 billion euros. 3:45 p.m. France reports indus- -0.5% trial production for October. Output dropped 2.7 percent in September from the previous month, the most -1.0% since January 2009. 5:30 p.m. The Sentix research insti- -1.5% tute in Germany releases its index -1.8% -1.2% -0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% of euro-zone investor confidence WT <GO> 5-Day Change (Dec. 3) As of 6:15 a.m. HK for December. The gauge rose in November for a third straight month to minus 18.8.Tuesday, Dec. 11 ■■ The 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet 6 p.m. The Netherlands sells up to■■Bank Indonesia may hold the refer- in Vienna to decide whether to keep their 2 billion euros of 106-day bills and 2ence rate unchanged at 5.75 percent for a output target of 30 million barrels a day. billion euros of 198-day bills.10th meeting after inflation slowed to 4.32percent in November. ■■ The Federal Open Market Committee 7 p.m. Norway sells 4 billion kronor concludes a two-day meeting to consider of bonds maturing in 2021.■■ Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rehman whether to increase the bank’s recordMalik begins a three-day trip to India as economic stimulus to offset the expiration 7:30 p.m. European Union foreignthe rivals and neighbors bid to seal a new this month of Operation Twist. ministers meet in Brussels.visa agreement and make progress onsecurity issues. 10 p.m. France sells bills. Thursday, Dec. 13 Tomorrow 1:15 a.m. Bank of Eng-Wednesday, Dec. 12 ■■ The Bank of Korea will probably keep land Governor Mervyn King speaks the seven-day repurchase rate unchanged at the Economic Club of New York.■■Japan reports machinery orders for at 2.75 percent ahead of the Dec. 19October. The indicator of capital spending presidential election.declined 4.3 percent in September from Middle Eastthe previous month as slowing demand ■■European Union leaders begin a two- 3 p.m. Bank of Israel Governorhurt exports. day summit in Brussels on the future of Stanley Fischer speaks. the economic and monetary union.■■ Foreign ministers of the Philippines,Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei meet in the ■■ Euro-area finance ministers meetPhilippines to discuss their approach to in Brussels to ratify an aid payment to Americas Greece of 34.4 billion euros. They may U.S. President Barack Obama visitsterritorial claims in the South China Sea also discuss a bailout for Cyprus. Detroit, where he will give a publicinvolving China. In the latest clash, Viet- speech to promote his plan for $1.6nam lodged a protest that claimed Chi- Friday, Dec. 14 trillion in tax increases and $600nese fishing boats intentionally blocked a billion in spending cuts to reduce theVietnamese seismic survey vessel. ■■ Japan releases the fourth-quarter Tank- federal deficit.■■ European Union finance ministers hold an index after September’s report showedemergency talks in Brussels on establish- that large manufacturers were pessimis- Tomorrow 12:30 a.m. The U.S. sellsing a single euro-area banking supervisor tic for a fourth consecutive quarter as a $32 billion of three-month bills andin a bid to meet a year-end deadline. global slowdown cut demand for exports. $28 billion of six-month bills.  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
  • 6. 12.10.12 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 6OUTSIDE ASIA  COMMENTARY BY David Powell, Bloomberg EconomistDraghi’s Softer Tone May Signal Support for First-Quarter Rate Cut Growing at ECB European Central Bank President MarioDraghi suggested support on the Govern- ECB Lowers Forecasts for GDP Growth in 2012 and 2013ing Council for a reduction of the main 5policy rate is increasing after having soft-ened his tone over the last three months. 4The drop in borrowing costs may material- 3ize during the first quarter. In response to a question on the discus- 2sion of monetary easing at last week’s 1press conference, he said: “There was a 0wide discussion (about interest-rate cuts) Euro-Area GDP (YoY, %, Old)but in the end the prevailing consensus -1 Euro-Area GDP (YoY, %, New)was to leave the rates unchanged.” -2 An acknowledgment of the interestrate on the deposit facility possibly being -3 Jan-00 May-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Sep-06 Jan-08 May-09 Sep-10 Jan-12 May-13pushed into negative territory added to thedovishness of his tone. “On the negative Source: Bloomberginterest rates on the deposit facility… EUGNEMUY Index <GO>there are no news there,” Draghi said. “AsMr. Praet has said, we are operationallyready but the discussion didn’t go into any Taylor Rule Suggests Economy Increasingly in Need of Lower Ratedepth with respect to this point. We briefly 6touched upon the complexities that such Interest Rate = 1 + (1.5 x Core Inflation) - (1 x Unemployment Gap)a measure would involve and the possible 5unintended consequences but we didn’telaborate any further.” 4 Those comments suggest the numberof persons on the Governing Council in 3favor of reducing the main policy rate waslarger than it was last month. In Novem- 2ber, he said: “On interest rates, we alwaysdiscuss our instruments — all instruments ECB Main Refinancing Rate (%) 1— of monetary policy, but the GoverningCouncil decided to keep interest rates Taylor-Rule Prescribed Euro-Area Rate (%) 0unchanged,” in response to a question Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09 Jul-10 Jan-12from a journalist. By contrast, the president had firmly Source: Bloomberg; San Francisco Federal Reserve Bankstated the topic had been omitted fromthe discussion of the meeting in October.A journalist asked: “Have there been any They continue to expect the HICP infla- A Taylor Rule, based on coefficientsdiscussions today about a possible rate tion to fall below the implicit target of the estimated by the Federal Reserve Bankcut in the months to come?” He respond- ECB. The midpoint of the estimate for of San Francisco, suggests that trend ined: “The answer is no.” He reiterated that the annual figure for 2013 stands at 1.6 the labor market is increasing the needstance a few minutes later: “I would say percent versus a previous forecast of 1.9 for a decline in borrowing costs. The mainthat there was no discussion. So it was a percent. The equivalent figure for 2014 is policy rate suggested by the model fellunanimous decision about interest rates.” 1.4 percent. to 0.65 percent for October from 0.75 The president appears to have used The rise of the unemployment rate has percent for September.the downward revision to the Eurosys- probably been responsible for several Draghi appears increasingly likely totem staff GDP forecasts as an excuse to members of the Governing Council push- heed that advice in the new year. Thesoften his tone. The economists lowered ing for monetary easing. The figure for the euro-area economy needs all the helpthe midpoints of the forecasts for 2012 euro area as a whole hit a record high of it can get, even though a 25-basis-pointand 2013 to minus 0.5 percent and minus 11.7 percent in October, the latest month drop is unlikely to have a large effect on0.3 percent, respectively, from minus 0.1 for which data is available, after rising the level output.percent and 1 percent. from 11.6 percent in September.  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
  • 7. 12.10.12 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 7 MSCI EQUITY INDEXES 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDSMarket Indicators 1D YoY 52W Average 52W FORW. LAST 1D CHG YoY 52W Average 52W 5Y TICKER COUNTRY LAST PRICE TICKER COUNTRY %Chg %Chg Min Last Max PE 12M YIELD BPS BPS Min Last Max CDS Asia/Pacific Asia/Pacific MXAU Index Australia 926.4 0.9% 8.8% 806 929 12.9 GACGB10 Index Australia 3.18% 5.8 -61.4 2.8 4.3 39.4 MXCN Index China 61.0 0.2% 13.5% 52 62 9.6 GCNY10YR Index China 3.56% 1.0 10.0 3.2 3.6 58.7 MXHK Index Hong Kong 11232.8 -0.3% 23.4% 8,849 11264 15.1 HKGG10Y Index Hong Kong 0.59% -0.4 -86.3 0.5 1.6 na MXID Index Indonesia 5069.7 -0.1% 7.9% 4,264 5291 13.1 GIDN10YR Index Indonesia 5.38% -0.2 -76.6 5.0 6.6 na MXIN Index India 762.5 -0.5% 20.9% 590 766 14.3 GIND10YR Index India 8.17% 0.1 -43.9 8.0 8.8 na MXJP Index Japan 486.3 0.2% 7.3% 427 539 12.5 GJGB10 Index Japan 0.71% 1.0 -34.0 0.7 1.1 70.1 MXKR Index Korea 569.2 0.6% 7.0% 504 599 8.3 GVSK10YR Index Korea 3.06% -1.0 -73.0 2.9 4.1 63.0 MXMY Index Malaysia 573.9 0.1% 7.2% 535 594 13.5 MGIY10Y Index Malaysia 3.52% 2.6 -18.5 3.4 3.7 na MXPH Index Philippines 958.0 0.4% 36.9% 696 958 16.9 PDSF10YR Index Philippines 4.40% -3.9 -141.4 4.4 6.2 na MXSG Index Singapore 1652.9 1.1% 15.7% 1,395 1660 na MASB10Y Index Singapore 1.30% -1.0 -46.0 1.3 1.8 na MXLK Index Sri Lanka 573.3 -0.2% 10.7% 486 633 na GGSL10YR Index Sri Lanka 13.33% -1.5 332.6 10.0 14.8 na TAMSCI Index Taiwan 276.5 0.5% 12.0% 238 289 na GVTW10YR Index Taiwan 1.14% 0.0 -17.6 1.1 1.3 na MXTH Index Thailand 494.8 0.1% 20.9% 404 495 11.2 GVTL10YR Index Thailand 3.52% 1.8 26.5 3.2 3.9 na MXVI Index Vietnam 471.6 -0.8% 1.3% 420 606 na GGVN10YR Index Vietnam 10.20% 0.0 -230.0 9.6 12.7 na Americas Americas MXUS Index U.S. 1354.2 0.3% 13.1% 1,150 1399 12.8 USGG10YR Index U.S. 1.62% 3.6 -40.8 1.4 2.4 37.8 MXBR Index Brazil 2605.2 0.8% -12.0% 2,409 3487 9.8 GEBR10Y Index Brazil 9.12% -2.3 -349.0 9.1 11.3 108.1 MXMX Index Mexico 7017.3 0.8% 22.5% 5,406 7040 16.8 GMXN10YR Index Mexico 5.40% -0.4 -95.0 5.0 6.6 97.9 Middle East & Africa Middle East & Africa MXZA Index South Africa 971.9 -0.1% 13.7% 824 973 11.6 GSAB9YR Index *South Africa (9Y) 6.54% -4.2 -135.5 6.5 8.3 150.5 Europe Europe Euro Area Euro Area MXAT Index Austria 108.5 -0.7% 20.1% 86 111 9.9 GAGB10YR Index Austria 1.70% -2.8 -151.4 1.7 3.4 41.2 MXBE Index Belgium 62.5 0.6% 38.2% 44 63 13.8 GBGB10YR Index Belgium 2.09% -2.8 -237.2 2.1 4.6 75.4 MXFI Index Finland 74.3 1.4% 9.3% 59 79 15.2 GFIN10YR Index Finland 1.55% 0.1 -109.6 1.3 2.6 28.1 MXFR index France 100.9 0.2% 14.9% 82 101 10.7 GFRN10 Index France 1.96% -3.4 -125.8 2.0 3.4 83.9 MXDE Index Germany 105.6 -0.2% 22.0% 82 106 10.6 GDBR10 Index Germany 1.30% -0.1 -80.9 1.2 2.1 31.6 MXGR Index Greece 12.4 0.6% -5.1% 9 17 13.2 GGGB10YR Index Greece 14.46% -50.0 -1954.0 14.5 37.1 na MXIE Index Ireland 25.4 0.3% 12.2% 22 28 16.8 GIGB9YR Index *Ireland (9Y) 4.58% 5.9 -418.7 4.4 8.8 197.5 MXIT Index Italy 47.1 -0.8% 1.2% 38 52 9.1 GBTPGR10 Index Italy 4.53% -4.9 -146.6 4.4 7.2 253.8 MXNL Index Netherlands 82.2 0.4% 18.7% 66 82 10.7 GNTH10YR Index Netherlands 1.53% -0.1 -101.4 1.5 2.6 42.5 MXPT Index Portugal 48.4 0.7% -7.9% 39 53 11.4 GSPT10YR Index Portugal 7.56% 2.9 -538.6 7.5 17.4 473.8 MXES Index Spain 85.8 -0.8% -9.2% 65 97 10.4 GSPG10YR Index Spain 5.46% -1.8 2.5 4.9 7.6 298.0 Non-Euro EU Non-Euro EU MXDK Index Denmark 4489.6 0.4% 31.9% 3,334 4565 15.3 GDGB10YR Index Denmark 1.01% 0.6 -105.9 1.0 2.1 30.3 MXHU Index Hungary 975.1 -0.3% 5.6% 881 1109 8.0 GHGB10YR Index Hungary 6.69% -6.0 -185.0 6.5 10.7 294.2 MXPL Index Poland 1691.5 -1.2% 9.6% 1,415 1712 11.1 POGB10YR Index Poland 3.94% -9.7 -195.3 3.9 6.0 85.2 MXSE Index Sweden 8409.7 0.1% 15.0% 7,097 8591 12.9 GSGB10YR Index Sweden 1.44% 0.6 -28.1 1.1 2.1 18.2 MXGB Index U.K. 1752.4 0.2% 7.1% 1,559 1765 11.4 GUKG10 Index U.K. 1.74% 0.1 -49.2 1.4 2.4 32.7 Non EU Non EU MXNO Index Norway 2288.3 -0.1% 8.2% 1,984 2440 na GNOR10YR Index Norway 2.13% -2.3 -34.1 1.6 2.6 17.7 MXRU Index Russia 780.2 0.3% 4.3% 657 940 na MICXRU10 Index Russia 6.99% -9.2 -176.5 7.0 9.0 134.5 MXCH Index Switzerland 897.2 0.2% 19.0% 741 897 13.1 GSWISS10 Index Switzerland 0.39% -0.8 -41.5 0.4 1.0 na MXTR Index Turkey 1085758 0.6% 41.3% 715.5K 1085.8K 10.5 TGBY10T0 Index Turkey 6.63% 2.0 -308.0 6.5 9.8 126.7 OTHER INDICATORS CURRENCIES LAST 1D Chg YoY 52W Average 52W 1Y Z- TICKER LAST 1D YoY 52W Average 52W 1Y Z- TICKER SPREAD/RATE/INDEX CURRENCY PRICE bps/% bps/% Min Last Max SCORE PRICE %CHG %CHG Min Last Max SCORE China Asia/Pacific SHIF3M Index 3M SHIBOR 3.84% 0.3 -164.1 3.6 5.6 -0.3 AUD Curncy Australian Dollar 1.05 0.0% 4.1% 1.0 1.1 0.6 CCSDO2 Curncy 2Y CNY IRS 2.87% 0.0 -32.2 2.5 3.3 -0.3 CNY Curncy Chinese Renminbi 6.22 -0.1% 2.3% 6.2 6.4 -2.1 BOCRYLD Index Avg Dim Sum Yield 4.74% 0.0 4.7 6.0 -1.4 HKD Curncy Hong Kong Dollar 7.75 0.0% 0.4% 7.7 7.8 -1.2 Japan INR Curncy Indian Rupee 54.48 0.6% -5.1% 48.7 57.2 0.5 JY0003M Index LIBOR 3M 0.18% 0.0 -1.4 0.2 0.2 -4.0 IDR Curncy Indonesian Rupiah 9708.0 0.6% -6.9% 8888 9708 1.6 TI0003M Index 3M TIBOR 0.32% 0.0 -1.7 0.3 0.3 -2.3 JPY Curncy Japanese Yen 82.57 0.1% -5.6% 76.2 83.7 1.8 JYSW2 Curncy 2Y Yen Swap 0.22% 0.0 -15.7 0.2 0.4 -2.4 MYR Curncy Malaysian Ringgit 3.06 0.2% 2.3% 3.0 3.2 -0.7 Other NZD Curncy New Zealand Dollar 0.83 0.0% 9.1% 0.8 0.8 1.2 AU0003M Index Australia 3M LIBOR 3.26% -0.2 -137.2 3.3 4.7 -2.0 PHP Curncy Philippine Peso 40.95 0.0% 5.7% 40.8 44.1 -1.7 HIHD03M Index Hong Kong 3M HIBOR 0.40% 0.1 6.8 0.3 0.4 -0.1 SGD Curncy Singapore Dollar 1.22 0.0% 6.5% 1.2 1.3 -1.4 JIIN3M Index Indonesia 3M JIBOR 4.92% 0.0 -41.4 4.1 5.3 0.7 KRW Curncy South Korean Won 1081.55 -0.1% 4.1% 1082 1185 -2.1 NSERO3M Index India 3M MIBOR 8.69% -4.0 -98.0 8.6 11.5 -1.1 LKR Curncy Sri Lankan Rupee 128.55 -0.2% -11.4% 113.8 134.0 0.2 KLIB3M Index Malaysia 3M KLIBOR 3.21% 0.0 -2.0 3.2 3.2 0.9 TWD Curncy Taiwan Dollar 29.06 -0.2% 3.8% 29.0 30.4 -1.7 PREF3MO Index Philippines 3M PHIREF 0.53% 0.0 -240.7 (0.2) 3.6 -1.6 THB Curncy Thai Baht 30.69 0.1% 1.6% 30.3 31.9 -1.0 SIBF3M Index Singapore SIBOR 3M 0.38% -0.1 -1.0 0.4 0.4 -1.4 VND Curncy Vietnamese Dong 20840 0.0% 0.8% 20.8K 21K -0.7 KWSWOOC Curncy S. Korea 3M OIS 2.81% 0.0 -46.0 2.8 3.3 -1.5 Americas SLBR3MON Index Sri Lanka 3M SLIBOR 13.55% 0.0 405.0 9.4 13.6 1.5 BRL Curncy Brazilian Real 2.08 -0.1% -13.3% 1.7 2.1 1.1 BOFX3M Index Thailand 3M BIBOR 2.87% -0.1 -41.8 2.9 3.3 -2.3 CAD Curncy Canadian Dollar 0.99 -0.2% 4.1% 1.0 1.0 -0.9 VNCD3MO Index Vietnam 3M VNIBOR 7.19% 27.1 -630.0 6.3 13.5 -0.9 MXN Curncy Mexican Peso 12.87 0.1% 7.4% 12.6 14.4 -0.8 Other (non-Asian) Middle East & Africa .TED3M Index 3M Ted Spread 22.8 0.9 -31.3 20.1 58.1 -1.4 ZAR Curncy South African Rand 8.67 0.2% -4.6% 7.4 8.9 1.3 .LIBORIOS F Index 3M LIBOR OIS Spread 16.5 -0.1 -28.5 15.6 50.1 -1.6 Europe JPEIPLSP Index EMBI+ Spread 263.8 -1.6 -102.4 248.3 430.1 -1.5 GBP Curncy British Pound 1.60 -0.1% 2.9% 1.5 1.6 0.9 COMMODITIES DKK Curncy Danish Krone 5.79 0.6% -4.2% 5.5 6.2 -0.1 LAST 1D YoY 52W Average 52W RSI EUR Curncy Euro 1.29 -0.3% -2.3% 1.2 1.3 0.1 TICKER COMMODITY PRICE %Chg %Chg Min Last Max 30D HUF Curncy Hungarian Forint 219.86 0.3% 5.7% 212.0 249.4 -0.7 Agricultural NOK Curncy Norwegian Krone 5.69 0.4% 2.5% 5.6 6.1 -1.0 SPGCAGTR Index S&P GS Agricult. Index 781.3 -0.9% 18.8% 621 891.3 46.0 PLN Curncy Polish Zloty 3.20 0.4% 8.0% 3.1 3.6 -0.6 Metals RUB Curncy Russian Ruble 30.81 -0.3% 1.5% 29.0 33.7 -0.3 SPGCINTR Index S&P GS Ind Metal Index 1580.0 0.3% -1.2% 1,423 1764 55.9 SEK Curncy Swedish Krona 6.69 0.2% 2.7% 6.5 7.3 -0.6 GC1 Comdty Gold 1704.0 0.2% -2.1% 1,537 1794 48.0 CHF Curncy Swiss Franc 0.94 0.2% 0.0% 0.9 1.0 -0.1 Energy TRY Curncy Turkish Lira 1.79 0.1% 4.4% 1.7 1.9 -0.4 SPGCENTR Index S&P GS Energy Index 1025.0 -0.5% -7.7% 896 1221 44.4 Other Crosses Indexes AUDJPY Curncy AUD/JPY 86.6 0.1% -9.3% 75.7 88.4 1.6 CRY Index CRB Index 295.9 -0.7% -3.4% 267 325.9 46.6 GBPJPY Curncy GBP/JPY 132.4 0.0% -8.2% 117.7 132.8 1.7 SPGSCITR Index S&P Commodity Index 4789.6 -0.5% -2.3% 4,226 5388 44.5 EURJPY Curncy EUR/JPY 106.4 -0.2% -3.5% 94.3 110.8 1.1 DBLCDBAT Index DBIQ Diversified Ag 235.4 -0.2% 1.4% 209 250.1 48.5 CHFJPY Curncy CHF/JPY 88.1 -0.2% -5.7% 78.5 91.9 1.1 Source: Bloomberg. Updated at 6:30 a.m. Hong Kong time  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
  • 8. 12.10.12 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Economics Asia 8ASIA FX SCORECARD  BY TAMARA HENDERSON, Bloomberg Economist FX Performance best overall RICH USD CHEAP CNY Year-to-date change in percent • Bloomberg Brief FX Scorecard favors the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar this week. KRW • Strong industrial production, retail sales growth in November confirm China’s 4Q rebound. PHP • The CNY’s positive 641 basis point implied yield differential suggests offshore investors are short NZD the yuan, and its carry return sharpe ratio is by far the highest among the currencies tracked. SGD • The typical seasonal trimming of risk into year-end favors lower-volatility currencies. TWD MYR THB 1m fx fwd 1-month 25 Delta 1m carry 1-month valuations AUD implied yld volatility 1m risk return deposit equity fx CNY rank differential premium reversal sharpe yield fwd p/e reer EUR (bp) (z-score) (z-score) ratio (percent) (z-score) (z-score) INR IDR CNY 1 641 -1.3 0.2 7.5 4.0 -0.8 1.3 JPY INR 2 -42 -0.7 -0.8 1.8 8.2 -0.2 -0.2 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 KRW 3 ** -0.3 -0.8 2.4 1.4 -1.1 0.1 MYR 4 -80 -1.6 -1.0 2.1 3.1 -0.4 0.6 SCORECARD TALLY THB 5 -9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.4 2.8 0.4 0.4 Favored FX Pairing Total Scorecards IDR 6 -90 -0.3 -0.6 -1.5 4.5 0.2 -0.1 Advanced Since May 2012 JPY 7 * -0.1 1.1 -5.1 0.1 -0.6 0.3 SGD 8 ** -1.3 -0.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 2.2 16 26 TWD 9 0 -0.8 0.2 -0.8 0.8 -0.1 0.2 Bloomberg Brief Economics Asia PHP 10 -35 -0.9 -0.9 1.2 0.0 1.7 2.2 AUD 11 * -0.4 0.8 2.9 3.1 0.3 1.0 Newsletter Ted Merz Executive Editor tmerz@bloomberg.net NZD 12 * -0.6 1.0 4.6 2.7 1.7 0.9 +1-212-617-2309 Bloomberg News Dan Moss economic direction technical timing Executive Editor dmoss@bloomberg.net +1-202-624-1881 Industrial output, retail sales accelera- AUD Weekly DMI, MACD favor the AUD, Economics Asia CNY tion solidify 4Q rebound. EUR, NZD and TWD. Daily charts sup- Newsletter Editors NZD Scott Johnson Nipa Piboontanasawat Weak exports, production may trigger port AXJ currencies generally against sjohnson166@bloomberg.net npiboontanas@bloomberg.net INR the USD. RBI cut in support of growth. TWD +852-2977-4702 +852-2977-6628 Anthony Richardson Rob Williams Weak Tankan, ongoing deflation may JPY arichardso21@bloomberg.net rwilliams80@bloomberg.net JPY +852-2977-4673 +1-212-617-8844 prompt more QE by the BOJ. Weekly and daily technical charts are ... Staff Economists A surprise BOK rate cut would ease mildly negative on the JPY. KRW Tamara Henderson Michael McDonough appreciation pressure. ... thenderson14@bloomberg.net mmcdonough10@bloomberg.net +65-6212-1140 +852-2977-6733 u.s. dollar positioning Joseph Brusuelas Richard Yamarone jbrusuelas3@bloomberg.net ryamarone@bloomberg.net 500,000 +1-212-617-7664 +1-212-617-8737 Net USD Longs +1 Standard Deviation David Powell Niraj Shah -1 Std Dev +2 Std Dev dpowell24@bloomberg.net nshah185@bloomberg.net 300,000 +44-20-7073-3769 +44-171-330-7500 Newsletter Nick Ferris 100,000 Business Manager nferris2@bloomberg.net +1-212-617-6975 -100,000 Advertising bbrief@bloomberg.net +1-212-617-6975 Reprints & Lori Husted -300,000 Permissions lori.husted@theygsgroup.com +1-717-505-9701 -500,000 To subscribe via the Bloomberg terminal type BRIEF 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 <GO> or on the web at www.bloombergbriefs.com Source: Bloomberg To contact the editors: econbrief@bloomberg.net* Actual positioning data from the CFTC have been used. This newsletter and its contents may not be forwarded or redistributed without the prior consent of Bloomberg.** The CitiFX positioning index has been used. Please contact our reprints and permissions group listed above for more informationClick Here for EXPLANATORY NOTES. Updated Dec. 10, 2012 5:29 AM Hong Kong time. © 2012 Bloomberg LP. All rights reserved.The FX Scorecard will not be published for the next three weeks. The Scorecard willreturn on Jan. 7.  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8