Rafael Popper TAFI workshop

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Presentation at final workshop for EC project Towards a Future Internet, held in Brussels 22 Nov 2010

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Rafael Popper TAFI workshop

  1. 1. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 The Future Internet Delphi Results of the Delphi Study TOWARDS ATOWARDS A Rafael Popper University of Manchester Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22 November 2010
  2. 2. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Delphi Round 1 – Process • 235 respondents • 3 sections = 48 questions  Section 1 = 19 questions  Section 2 = 11 questions  Section 3 = 18 questions Delphi Round 1 – Process • 235 respondents • 3 sections = 48 questions  Section 1 = 19 questions  Section 2 = 11 questions  Section 3 = 18 questions Delphi Round 2 – Process • 110 respondents • 4 sections = 12 Qs  Scenario 1 = 3 questions  Scenario 2 = 3 questions  Scenario 3 = 3 questions  Scenario 4 = 3 questions Delphi Round 2 – Process • 110 respondents • 4 sections = 12 Qs  Scenario 1 = 3 questions  Scenario 2 = 3 questions  Scenario 3 = 3 questions  Scenario 4 = 3 questions
  3. 3. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 The Internet will permeate most aspects of our lives
  4. 4. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Internet will be vital for the vast majority of business functions
  5. 5. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Low cost & user-friendliness are key for a "socially-positive" Internet
  6. 6. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 General usage 1. The Internet will become vital for the vast majority of people 2. Between 11-50% of a person’s day will be directly influenced by the Internet 3. The Internet will permeate most aspects of our lives 4. Socio-economic use of the Internet will by far exceed political usage 5. Most government services will use the Internet to interact with people 6. The Internet will impact most stages of learning and education processes 7. Politicians and governments will significantly use the Internet to influence politics Business usage 8. The Internet will be vital for the vast majority of business functions Users 9. Wealth and education level will remain important causes of the digital divide 10. Internet use will reach 75% of the EU population 11. Low cost and user-friendliness are key issues for a "socially-positive" Internet Functionality and human interface expectations 12. Mobile Internet will be available throughout the EU 13. Most citizens will trust online transactions and financial services 14. The Internet will not achieve acceptable levels of privacy or crime prevention 15. The Internet will not be secure and reliable enough for vital services 16. The average Internet use across the EU will exceed watching broadcast TV 17. Internet may become the main TV channel 18. Image recognition and gesture detection may be widely used in the Internet 19. The Internet will not be protected from critical failures or cyber-attacks
  7. 7. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Attempts will be made to apply more political control to the Internet
  8. 8. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 The Internet governance may not need to go to UN levels
  9. 9. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Exclusion 1. The Internet may or may not contribute to lessen the Exclusion Gap 2. Access costs and complexity will be key contributors to the Digital Poverty Sociological and psychological behaviours 3. Internet cultures will tend to be creative 4. The Internet will form new adjunct to society with increased social interactions 5. Jobs and the economy are more likely to be dependent on the Internet Global issues 6. Attempts will be made to apply more political control to the Internet. 7. Global and economic conditions will accelerate Internet usage in many areas 8. The Internet may or may not challenge capitalism and the corporate economy 9. The Internet may or may not challenge the global balance in trade and power Governance 10. New governance structures will be needed for the Internet 11. The Internet governance may not need to go to United Nations levels
  10. 10. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 By 2020, Internet services will NOT be mainly paid for by subscription and advertising
  11. 11. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 By 2020, addressing poverty and social inequality will drive the take up of the Internet
  12. 12. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010
  13. 13. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010
  14. 14. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Evolution 1. The Internet may or may not see revolutionary changes 2. The Internet will be a convenience, lifestyle and information management tool 3. The appearance of multiple “Internets” will certainly surprise many 4. The Internet may have tiers of value and privacy/security 5. User generated content may dominate the Internet 6. The “Internet of things” will become increasingly dominant 7. Internet services will not be mainly paid for by subscription and advertising 8. The Internet may be able to understand users’ requirements (using semantics) 9. Charging for Internet applications which are "free" today will be controversial 10. An Internet divided into paid-for and a few free services will be controversial 11. The Internet will be the TV channel of choice, with a virtual VCR Drivers of success 12. e-literacy will be a key driver of the take up of the Internet 13. General levels of education will be a key driver in the take up of the Internet 14. Addressing poverty and social inequality will drive the take up of the Internet Inhibitors of success 15. Uncertainty over use of personal data and privacy will inhibit Internet use 16. New and unexpected threats may inhibit Internet use 17. Between 10-20% of the population will refuse to use the Internet 18. Government interventions to neutralize cyber-crime may inhibit Internet success
  15. 15. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Scenario 1: Smooth Trip • The knowledge-based internet economy. The aim of the internet is to enable all facets of work as the foundation of a new era in the world’s development, a Knowledge Economy. Scenario 2: A Green Internet Society • Going Green - the green internet economy. A hot, wet internet world. The global climate crisis has hit everyday life and can no longer be pushed aside. It has become so threatening that the internet is harnessed to help save the planet. Scenario 3: A commercially controlled consumer world • Commercial Big Brother. The internet becomes a purely commercial channel for entertainment, retail commerce and advertising – “we have ways of making you buy”. It has become so threatening that the internet is harnessed to help save the planet. Scenario 4: Power to the People • Power to the e-people - Emergence of the e-Demos: a Flat Earth scenario. Ordinary people take the helm. User and e-consumer rights rule, building their own environments and applications.
  16. 16. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Most Likely 2nd Most Desirable Most Likely 2nd Most Desirable Least Likely 1st Most Desirable Least Likely 1st Most Desirable
  17. 17. The Future Internet Delphi (R. Popper) – Towards a Future Internet – Final Public Workshop, Brussels, 22.11.2010 Rafael Popper University of Manchester rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk Popper R. and Forge, S. (2010), Towards a Future Internet: Delphi Survey Round 1 Results, A report to EC DG Information Society and Media, Oxford: Oxford Internet Institute and SCF Associates,48pp. Popper R. and Forge, S. (2010), Towards a Future Internet: Delphi Survey Round 1 Results, A report to EC DG Information Society and Media, Oxford: Oxford Internet Institute and SCF Associates,48pp. Popper R., Forge, S. and Blackman, C. (2010), Towards a Future Internet: Delphi Survey Round 2 Results, A report to EC DG Information Society and Media, Oxford: Oxford Internet Institute and SCF Associates,45pp. Popper R., Forge, S. and Blackman, C. (2010), Towards a Future Internet: Delphi Survey Round 2 Results, A report to EC DG Information Society and Media, Oxford: Oxford Internet Institute and SCF Associates,45pp.

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