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Self-Organization, Economics &
Football Managers
Bernard Leong

3 June 2009
Self-Organization                          Long Tail
                Self-Organized Criticality
                      Tipp...
SOC implies scale invariance and “simple” microscopic
         mechanism leads to an observed macroscopic effect.

       ...
P (t) = At   α


   Measures how volatile the league is,
   i.e. how frequent they fire managers.
Period     Power Law                                     α
    England         1874-2005         ✔                        ...
Can we explain this via a
microscopic model?
✤   We initialize 20 managers with two attributes: (1) Reputation and (2)
   ...
When do we “fire” a manager?
✤   A manager is fired for poor performance - Firing threshold.

✤   A manager is poached by a...
“Home” & “Away” advantage (Model A)
or Equal Chances (Model B)
“Home” & “Away” advantage (Model A)
or Equal Chances (Model B)
Wage Cap of players
    removed
                        Start of
                      TV coverage
Economics & Football Managers

✤   Competitive market forces might bring
    sports leagues to a point of maximum
    effic...
Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers
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Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers

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My talk for #TEDxKL about economics, self-organized criticality and football managers and how they are related althogether.

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  • Transcript of "Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers"

    1. 1. Self-Organization, Economics & Football Managers Bernard Leong 3 June 2009
    2. 2. Self-Organization Long Tail Self-Organized Criticality Tipping Point
    3. 3. SOC implies scale invariance and “simple” microscopic mechanism leads to an observed macroscopic effect. Earthquakes History Objects Economic, Social & Mechanism Classical Mechanics Political Interactions Self-Organization Formation of tectonic Formation of a social Structure plates hierarchy Criticality Earthquake Political Change Power Law Plot the frequency of Plot the frequency of tenures (Emergent Phenomenon) earthquakes vs Richter scale vs tenures of leaders
    4. 4. P (t) = At α Measures how volatile the league is, i.e. how frequent they fire managers.
    5. 5. Period Power Law α England 1874-2005 ✔ -2.23 France 1928-2003 × n/a Spanish 1910-2003 ✔ -2.75 Germany 1947-2003 ✔ -2.51 All Managers 1874-2005 ✔ -2.75 National Coaches 1902-2003 ✔ -2.92 American Baseball 1875-2003 ✔ -2.63 American Football 1920-2003 ✔ -2.08 Japanese Baseball 1936-2003 ✔ -2.41 Source: Aidt, Leong, Sgroi, Saslaw, Physica A, 370(2): 697-703
    6. 6. Can we explain this via a microscopic model? ✤ We initialize 20 managers with two attributes: (1) Reputation and (2) Tenure Length. ✤ Use the standard round robin (38 games) with each managers playing against each other and a simple scoring system. The principles of relegation, “Home” and “Away” apply. ✤ We use a set of criteria to decide how we fire a manager. ✤ Then run it for a hundred years (steady state) and see if we can produce the power law distribution relating tenure length and frequency.
    7. 7. When do we “fire” a manager? ✤ A manager is fired for poor performance - Firing threshold. ✤ A manager is poached by another club by good performance - Poaching threshold ✤ A manager retires due to old age - Ossification threshold ✤ A manager is replaced when the team is relegated in the main league after 38 games. You are fired !!!
    8. 8. “Home” & “Away” advantage (Model A) or Equal Chances (Model B)
    9. 9. “Home” & “Away” advantage (Model A) or Equal Chances (Model B)
    10. 10. Wage Cap of players removed Start of TV coverage
    11. 11. Economics & Football Managers ✤ Competitive market forces might bring sports leagues to a point of maximum efficiency related to self-organized criticality. ✤ Competition is a zero sum game where what matters is relative, not absolute performance. ✤ The Red Queen Principle: The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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