How to Predict Firings of
            Football Managers

                              A Freakonomics Approach
           ...
Earthquakes
                                   P (E) ∼ E       −B
                                                        ...
Self Organized Criticality (SOC)
                              The Sandpile Analogy




              Bak, Tang and Weisen...
SOC implies scale invariance and “simple” microscopic
                    mechanism in general.
                          ...
SOC in Social Sciences
               • Self Organized Criticality has been introduced
                      to economics ...
SOC in history?
      • Saslaw and Tuck (2000) looked at
             tenure lengths (reigns) of Roman,
             Chine...
If it works on earthquakes, and emperors,
                                   why not try it on CEOs?
                     ...
So, I suggested the following dataset....




                                                     (From BBC sport)
      ...
Empirical Evidence of a power law




Saturday, February 28, 2009
Ubiquitous?
                              Power   Exponent
                               Law
          English           ...
A microscopic model
         • Let’s try to use a simple diffusion model:
         • Step 1: Initialize 20 managers with t...
Criteria for Turnover
         • If a manager’s reputation falls below 0 due to
                 losing games, he is fired....
Let’s see how badly my simulations fit the observations




Saturday, February 28, 2009
Let’s see how badly my simulations fit the observations




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
The issue about the English League




Saturday, February 28, 2009
Something happened in the 1960s....
                              Wage Cap of players
                                  re...
Economics and Football
                      Managers
  •      First,
competitive
market
forces
might
bring
sports
leagues...
Acknowledgements

          • Toke Aidt and Daniel Sgroi, Faculty of Economics
          • William Saslaw
          • Laur...
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
                                 - Alan Kay




Saturday, February 2...
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How to Predict the Firing of Football Managers

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You can read about what I have spoken on this blog entry: http://bleongcw.typepad.com/simple_is_the_reason_of_m/2008/01/firing-of-bpl-f.html

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  • How to Predict the Firing of Football Managers

    1. 1. How to Predict Firings of Football Managers A Freakonomics Approach Bernard Leong A Pragmatic Idealist http://bleongcw.typepad.com Saturday, February 28, 2009
    2. 2. Earthquakes P (E) ∼ E −B B ≈ [1.8, 2.2] Introduction to Self-Organized Criticality & Earthquakes (Winslow, Michigan) Saturday, February 28, 2009
    3. 3. Self Organized Criticality (SOC) The Sandpile Analogy Bak, Tang and Weisenfeld (1989) Saturday, February 28, 2009
    4. 4. SOC implies scale invariance and “simple” microscopic mechanism in general. Ricepile Earthquakes History Model Objects Soil Rice People Self- Formation of Formation of the Formation of a Organization tectonic plates Pyramid social hierarchy Economical, Wave Newtonian Mechanism Social & Political Mechanics Dynamics Interactions Criticality Earthquake Avalanche Political Change Saturday, February 28, 2009
    5. 5. SOC in Social Sciences • Self Organized Criticality has been introduced to economics in various contexts: • Paul Krugman on economic geography & business cycles (1996). • T. Schelling on segregation of people in cities. • P. Bak et al on turnover of commodities. Saturday, February 28, 2009
    6. 6. SOC in history? • Saslaw and Tuck (2000) looked at tenure lengths (reigns) of Roman, Chinese, Korean emperors, Doges of Venice and Popes. • They found power law distributions and suggested SOC as an explanation correlated to political revolution and change. • Their problem is that they do not Saturday, February 28, 2009
    7. 7. If it works on earthquakes, and emperors, why not try it on CEOs? The data is available but expensive. Saturday, February 28, 2009
    8. 8. So, I suggested the following dataset.... (From BBC sport) Football Managers Saturday, February 28, 2009
    9. 9. Empirical Evidence of a power law Saturday, February 28, 2009
    10. 10. Ubiquitous? Power Exponent Law English -1.98 ✔ Football French -2.94 ✔ Football Spanish -2.75 ✔ Football Germany -2.51 ✔ Football Europe -2.21 ✔ Chairman National -2.92 ✔ Coaches American Cricket? Tennis? -2.63 ✔ Baseball American -2.08 ✔ Football Saturday, February 28, 2009
    11. 11. A microscopic model • Let’s try to use a simple diffusion model: • Step 1: Initialize 20 managers with two attributes: reputation and tenure length • Step 2: Each managers play against each other, using the simple roundrobin and a simple scoring system. • Step 3: Use a threshold as a criteria to decide turnover (i.e. firing the manager). • Step 4: Run it for a hundred years and optimize with different reputation and tenure length Saturday, February 28, 2009
    12. 12. Criteria for Turnover • If a manager’s reputation falls below 0 due to losing games, he is fired. • If a manager’s reputation has gone beyond the maximum, he is poached. • If a manager’s tenure length has reached the tenure-threshold (say 30 years), he retires. You are fired !!! Saturday, February 28, 2009
    13. 13. Let’s see how badly my simulations fit the observations Saturday, February 28, 2009
    14. 14. Let’s see how badly my simulations fit the observations Saturday, February 28, 2009
    15. 15. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    16. 16. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    17. 17. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    18. 18. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    19. 19. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    20. 20. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    21. 21. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    22. 22. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    23. 23. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    24. 24. The issue about the English League Saturday, February 28, 2009
    25. 25. Something happened in the 1960s.... Wage Cap of players removed Start of TV coverage Saturday, February 28, 2009
    26. 26. Economics and Football Managers • First,
competitive
market
forces
might
bring
sports
leagues
to
a
 point
of
maximum
efficiency
related
to
self-organized
criticality.
 A
team
wishes
to
maximize
its
profit.
This
means
maintaining
 attendance
at
games,
together
with
maximizing
television
and
 advertising
revenues. • Second, competition in a sports league is a zero sum game where what matters is relative, not absolute performance. Managers, therefore, find themselves involved in an arms race and subject to the Red Queen principle that the more things change, the more they stay the same Saturday, February 28, 2009
    27. 27. Acknowledgements • Toke Aidt and Daniel Sgroi, Faculty of Economics • William Saslaw • Laura Webster • Thomas Down • And the many people who I convey and test this crazy idea to.... Saturday, February 28, 2009
    28. 28. “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Kay Saturday, February 28, 2009

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