Incompleteness for StartupsPresentation Transcript
Incompleteness for Startups By Max Skibinsky
Few Essays Startup-Russia.com
1. The Ultimate Theorem
Gödel 1 st Incompleteness Theorem • Ultimate Theorem • Why everything evolves • Why Everything is subject to change • Why things gets more complex over time
Gödel 1 st Incompleteness Theorem Any … theory (*) cannot be both consistent and!complete. For any!consistent… formal theory (*), there is an … statement that is true,!but not provable in the theory
Gödel Statement G: True yet Un-Provable in SYSTEM H
Gödel 1 st Incompleteness TheoremNobody CAN BE TOLD WHAT THE MATRIX IS…
SMALL BROTHER: Turing Halting Problem Given a description of a computer program, its impossible to write a program to decide whether the program finishes running or continues to run forever
Sketch ProofLet say Halt(software,data) exits. Returns True orFalseWhat about G(s) = If Halt(s, s) then LoopForeverelse StopThink what happens if you try to computeG(G).• If Halt(G,G) halts then it loops.• If Halt(G,G) say it loops it will halt.
Cantor Diagonal Proof Related Proof related to SubcaseRecursion Proof based on
You Can Not Formalize The
You Can Not Formalize The• Anything known K: always can build recursion G(K) that is “bigger”• A^n + b^n != c^n : halt or not?• You never know enough (bad)• There is always room to know/invent more (good)
Marketplace: Set of Formal Rules• Collect Underpants• ? [data]• Profits!
Marketplace: Sets of Formal Rules1. Put software in the cardboard box2. Bundle browser with OS3. Cut oxygen supply to competitors4. …1923. Profits!
Gödel StatementG: True yet Un- Provable
New G• Put software in the box • Create search engine• … • Sell all words for bids• Profits! • Profits!
There is always another G• Put software in the box • Create friends graph• Sell words for bids • …• Profits! • Profits!• Put game in the box • Give away free game• … • Ask for money• Profits! • Profits!
Gödel Statements• Profitable yet un-provable by old rules• Include G New Theory New G’s• Infinite number of G’s• No formal discovery system
Startups• Success: find at least one G• Compete in old system: #epicFail• Many fails: no sure way to a new G• Quick experiments, fast pivots
The First Cycle New GAttempts at G
3. Scale Free Laws
Scale Free LawsYou can NOT understand the scale by looking at surroundings • Also known as Power Laws • Generate long tails
Scale Free: Terrain
Scale Free: Terrain
Scale Free: Terrain
Scale Free: Terrain ground near NASAsPhoenix Mars Lander
Scale Free: Time New hit (G): growth in 3 months• 3 months: +1 month• 4 month: +2 months• 5 month: +5 months• 18 month: +4.3 years
Scale Free: TimeYou are… `where? ?? ?
M&A Aspects• x100 vs x4• Mature: teams (cheap) or rev stream• Startups: G search• Big: profitable ops
Summary• Startup jumps on G-events• Big wins: sequential G.• Can’t discover by method• Impact & time : scale free graph• M&A: Decide between G and g+1
Must Read• Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, • Tipping Point• On Intelligence, Incompletness • The Blind Watchmaker• Guns, Germs & Steel, Collapse • The God Dellusion• The Red Queen • Genome• Poor Charlie Almanac Ubiquity • Elegant Universe• Evolution of Cooperation • The Trouble with Physics• Nexus • The Road to Reality• Social Atom • Freakonomics• The Wisdom of the Crowds
Myths• Russian Engineers are best in the world? – Not anymore• Russian entrepreneurs are most tenacious? – Good luck flogging dead horses for years• Russian entrepreneurs are most scrappy? – If scrappy long enough to notice its not working – If G exploding and you are scrappy you are an idiot
Default Rule When in doubt, use rule #1:If its feels natural its probably wrong
Russian “System”• Penalize failure == 0 discovery• Hierarchical: formalized!• Process dominated: formalized!• Don’t fence inherited problems: SOLVE THEM
Russian “System”• Soldier vs creativity• Status vs meritocracy• Masculine vs balanced• Micromanaged vs free form• Endless list
Job #1 : G Discovery• Everything else is secondary• First G: Life• Sequential Gs: Future• Free form, uncertain, non-process, creative, meritocratic, human driven