2009年度中国消费者调查报告 (二)


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2009年度中国消费者调查报告 (二)

  1. 1. McKinsey Asia Consumer and Retail 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study Part II: One Country, Many Markets – Targeting the Chinese Consumer with McKinsey ClusterMap McKinsey Insights China
  2. 2. McKinsey Asia Consumer and Retail September 2009 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study Part II: One Country, Many Markets – Targeting the Chinese Consumer with McKinsey ClusterMap Yuval Atsmon Jennifer Ding Vinay Dixit Glenn Leibowitz Max Magni Daniel Zipser The authors wish to thank Derek Chang, Alice Zhang, Rachel Zheng, and Cherie Zhang for their contributions to this report. McKinsey Insights China
  3. 3. 4 This is the second in a series of reports on Chinese consumers by McKinsey Insights China
  4. 4. 5 Contents Executive summary 6 McKinsey ClusterMap – From city tiers to city clusters 8 Crafting a cluster-based strategy 14 About the study 21
  5. 5. 6 Executive summary By many accounts, the southern over a quarter of the population is Chinese cities of Guangzhou and migrants, more people are older, Shenzhen would appear to have a speak primarily Cantonese, and lot in common. Each ranks among enjoy going out to restaurants to the 4 wealthiest cities in China. drink with family members. Each has the population the size of a small European nation. And each While few companies would apply churns out exports that feed the the same strategy in France as world’s demand for low-cost goods. they do in Germany, this is in fact Yet, these two cities, located in the what many companies appear to same province and separated by just be doing in China today. In the a three-hour car drive, are about as past, companies could overlook the different in demographic profile, distinctions between consumers language, and consumer preference in China’s hundreds of cities as France is to, say, Germany. because they were focused on Four-fifths of Shenzhen’s residents establishing a foothold in China. are migrant workers, mostly under Or, they were chasing scale in the the age of 35, who speak Mandarin biggest markets, which generally to communicate across their local meant tier 1 cities such as Beijing dialects, and prefer to drink in and Shanghai, and the larger of bars. In nearby Guangzhou, just the tier 2 cities such as Nanjing.
  6. 6. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 7 Yet, many companies continue to city by city, as many companies invest in the large, growing markets continue to do today. Rather than of yesterday, while overlooking the view China through the simple lens smaller but faster growing markets of city tier or region, companies of tomorrow. Others are waking should instead organize China’s 800 up to find that they’ve spread cities into two dozen or more city themselves too thin, and are failing clusters as defined by the McKinsey to establish sustainable competitive ClusterMap. These clusters - positions in the handful of markets consisting of as few as 2 and as many that really matter to their business. as roughly 70 neighboring cities - are defined not only by income and The vast size of the Chinese market geographic location, but also by and the varying pace of growth economic linkages and trade flows makes prioritization a must: of between cities, as well as common China’s more than 800 cities, consumer attitudes and preferences. 200 have a population of over a million each (versus just 35 in all Utilizing the McKinsey ClusterMap of Europe).1 Hundreds more cities approach allows companies to define have populations in the hundreds their strategic aspirations, prioritize of thousands. Year after year of resources, and track performance torrid economic growth means that at a level that is far more practical yesterday’s smaller markets are and cost efficient than managing now considerably bigger and still their business at the city level. growing fast, while competition By grouping cities in this way, in the larger strongholds is companies can leverage synergies in more intense than ever. salesforces, distribution channels, supply chain, and marketing across Our work with companies in China, a wider geographic scope than by as well as our recent research on the managing on a single city basis, and Chinese consumer2, suggest a far at a far more granular level of detail more impactful and cost-effective than by carving China up into large approach to crafting business geographic regions. strategies than managing China 1 “Preparing for China’s Urban Billion”, McKinsey Global Institute 2 McKinsey has been conducting the Annual Chinese Consumer Study since 2005. This year’s study covered 15,000 respondents across 58 cities. For more details please visit McKinsey Insights China website at http://insightschina.bymckinsey.com
  7. 7. 8 McKinsey ClusterMap – From city tiers to city clusters Recognizing the limitations of sorting China’s cities into tiers or Exhibit 1: We divided China into 22 clusters representing broad geographic regions, as most ~92% of urban GDP in 2015 companies do today, we employed in our study a very different approach to segmenting the Chinese market, what we call the McKinsey ClusterMap. We divided China into twenty-two city clusters: groups of cities that are developing around one or two large hub cities. To ensure that the clusters are actionable and relevant to companies, spoke cities are located within 300 kilometers of one of the hub cities, and the total GDP of any individual cluster exceeds 1 percent of China’s total urban GDP (Exhibit 1). 1 Macroeconomic, demographics and consumption data are updated twice yearly to account for rapid changing conditions in China Source: McKinsey Insights China – Consumer Survey (2009); McKinsey analysis
  8. 8. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 9 AS OF JUNE 20091 Cluster name Cluster Hub city (# of cities) GDP GDP Mega clusters Changchun- Jingjinji (37) 10.8% | 7.9% Haerbin Shanghai (19) 10.8% | 6.2% Shandong byland (67) 9.0% | 2.1% Hangzhou (38) 6.7% | 1.6% Guangzhou (24) 6.6% | 2.6% Huhehaote Nanjing (27) 4.8% | 1.8% Liao central Shenzhen (2) 4.3% | 2.9% Jingjinji south Taiyuan Shandong Large clusters byland Liao central south (30) 4.3% | 2.4% Xiamen-Fuzhou (42) 4.2% | 1.4% Guanzhong Nanjing Yangzi mid-lower (42) 4.0% | 1.8% Central Central (40) 3.8% | 0.7% Changchun-Haerbin (36) 3.6% | 1.6% Shanghai Yangzi mid-lower Chengdu (29) 3.2% | 1.6% Chengdu Hefei Hangzhou Hefei (29) 2.8% | 0.8% Changzhutan (28) 2.2% | 0.8% Chongqing Guanzhong (15) 1.9% | 1.2% Chanzhutan Chongqing (6) 1.8% | 1.5% Nanchang Small clusters Kunming Guangzhou Xiamen-Fuzhou Nanning (28) 1.8% | 0.3% Nanchang (22) 1.7% | 0.6% Nanning Taiyuan (19) 1.4% | 0.5% Shenzhen Huhehaote (10) 1.3% | 0.4% Kunming (16) 1.1% | 0.5%
  9. 9. 10 The McKinsey ClusterMap covers Industry composition a total of 606 of China’s 815 cities, In plotting China’s city clusters, we holding 82 percent of China’s total looked at industry structure - an urban population, and comprising economy’s orientation towards 92 percent of projected urban services, manufacturing, or GDP by 2015. Of the 22 clusters, agriculture – as well as the we classified 7 as “mega”, with integration of economic activity populations ranging from 19 million and trade flows between cities to 55 million people, and each within a cluster. Industry structure comprising as much as 5 to and economic linkages shape the 12 percent of total urban GDP in demographic break-down, income 2008. An additional 10 clusters we levels, and, ultimately, consumer called “large”, with populations of preferences and behavior within city 13 million to 39 million. clusters. The actual number of clusters The formation of end-to-end that a company may identify industry value chains is one factor will vary. Some companies may that reinforces the integration of decide to combine clusters because economic activity within clusters. of opportunities to reap scale For example, the presence in economies in distribution, or Shanghai of SAIC, China’s largest because media viewing habits and domestic automobile manufacturer, preferences for media channels are and its successful joint venture with consistent across those clusters. GM, has led to the formation of a Some companies may choose comprehensive network of auto to divide some clusters into two parts suppliers in the suburbs and or more clusters because the cities surrounding Shanghai, earning differences within a given cluster the city the moniker “the Detroit of in say, competitive dynamics or China.” consumer behavior, are substantial enough to merit different strategies. Another factor promoting tighter economic ties between cities In mapping out the clusters, within a cluster is the distribution we analyzed China’s 815 cities3 of certain business activities along four dimensions: industry between cities. For example, many composition, government policies, 3 This number includes around high tech companies have set up 200 additional unofficial cities demographic characteristics, and their administrative operations that “behaved” like cities ac- consumer preferences. cording to government criteria in Shanghai, while locating that prevailed in 1996 but which the government did not manufacturing in a neighboring city designate as such. For more or economic zone such as Kunshan information, see “Preparing for China’s Urban Billion”, or Zhangjiang High-Tech Park. McKinsey Global Institute.
  10. 10. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 11 Government policy towards an economy mostly driven by, say, producing and trading milk In China, the influence of government can be felt strongly in its and dairy products, people will be approach to urban development. In drawn to the jobs in that sector, will recent decades, a mix of industrial, earn comparable levels of income, economic and population policies and will likely develop similarities in devised at the central, provincial preferences and attitudes. and city government levels have catalyzed the formation of city Demographics clusters. Since 1989, the Chinese The share of local residents versus government has announced several migrants, age break-down, income policies that have encouraged tighter levels, and household savings rates economic collaboration between are key demographic variables that large cities, and between large cities we used to define city clusters. and smaller ones. Some of these policies were designed to ensure that Massive waves of migrants from the smaller cities benefit from the flow countryside are rapidly remolding of talent and investment that larger the contours of China’s urban cities nearby are attracting, and to landscape. Recent research by balance economic development and the McKinsey Global Institute ease population pressures. (MGI) showed that between 1990 and 2005, 100 million migrants In its 11th Five-year Plan in moved into China’s cities. By 2005, for example, China’s State Council identified eleven 2030, MGI estimates that nearly regional city clusters with the 1 billion urban residents will aim of driving economic growth, be living in China’s cities.4 strengthening transportation The impact of China’s urbanization linkages, and influencing phenomenon varies widely across patterns of migration. Cross-city city clusters, however, and the infrastructure and development contrasts between clusters can be projects have also reinforced stark. Fully 86% of Shenzhen’s economic and transportation linkages between cities. residents are migrants from other provinces that speak Mandarin (as Other policies are targeted at specific well as their local dialect), while regions, and have very specific 73% of Guangzhou’s residents were purposes, such as those aimed at born and raised there, and speak transforming Inner Mongolia into primarily Cantonese. Because 4 “Preparing for China’s Urban the “dairy capital of Asia”. As the of the predominance of migrant Billion”, McKinsey Global Institute industry structure gradually shifts workers, Shenzhen is a younger city
  11. 11. 12 than Guangzhou: 55% of Shenzhen a particular city belonged to, rather residents are 20-34, compared with than a geographically contiguous just 35% of Guangzhou residents. cluster. However, in our latest 19% of Guangzhou residents are survey of 15,000 Chinese consumers, older than 49, compared with just conducted in the first quarter of 7% in Shenzhen. 2009, 11 of the 14 attributes could be explained by city clusters (Exhibit 2). Consumer profiles We observed substantial variations The litmus test of whether city in consumer behavior across China’s clusters really matter to companies clusters in most of the attributes is the degree to which clusters shape consume behavior. Indeed, of consumer behavior that we our study showed a very strong looked at in our study. For example, correlation between the two. When while 52 percent of consumers in we first conducted our survey of the Shanghai cluster prefer well- Chinese consumers in 2005, 9 of the known brands, only 36 percent of 14 biggest differences in consumer consumers in the “Xiamen-Fuzhou” attributes such as brand loyalty or cluster (which includes cities such the willingness to pay a premium as Shantou, Shishi and Chaozhou) could be explained by the city-tier share the same preference. Relevance of geographic clusters is increasing steadily as income differences across city tiers decrease #1 determinant of variance in consumer responses (city tiers vs. city clusters) 1 2 3 Tier-driven Exhibit 2: 2005 2008 2009 Cluster-driven Relevance of city ▪ Outlook towards financial future 1 2 1 2 clusters is increasing steadily as income 3 3 ▪ Importance of saving 1 differences across city 2 3 General attitudes ▪ Concern about product safety tiers decrease ▪ Willing to try new things ▪ Individualism ▪ Preference for well-known brands 1 2 3 ▪ Preference for Chinese brands 1 1 2 2 3 3 ▪ Price sensitiveness 1 2 3 Attitudes ▪ Loyalty to preferred brand 1 towards 2 3 consumption ▪ Willingness to pay premium 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 ▪ Preference for modern channel 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 ▪ Internet activity 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 Cluster driven differences 3/12 7/12 9/12 Source: McKinsey Insights China; McKinsey analysis
  12. 12. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 13 Consumer preferences for product spend heavily on TV advertising features also vary widely. For may identify ways to allocate their example, consumers in the Shenzhen spending across different clusters cluster tend to prefer lighter, thinner more effectively (Exhibit 3). digital cameras, while consumers in the Guangzhou cluster prefer a large A virtuous cycle is at play in preview screen. the formation of city clusters: government policies shape Media preferences also vary widely industry structure, which impact among consumers in different demographic composition, and clusters. For example, 95 percent which is, in turn, reflected in of consumers in what we call the consumer behavior. Over time, these “Central cluster” (which includes forces reinforce the linkages between cities such as Zhengzhou, Luoyang, cities, and cause consumer behavior and Kaifeng) prefer to watch to converge within a cluster. national TV. By contrast, 62 percent of consumers in the Shanghai cluster prefer to watch local city- based TV channels. With a better understanding of TV viewing habits, consumer goods companies that Different TV channels are preferred across geographic areas Exhibit 3: Local TV National TV Different TV channels are preferred across clusters TV impact1 Cluster Description Shanghai 62 38 Shenzhen 45 55 Local TV Strong preference for (City TV and local media; cannot be Changzhutan 44 56 Provincial effectively covered by TV) national TV Guangzhou 38 62 Hangzhou 31 69 Central 5 95 Yangzi 11 89 Can only be effectively mid-lower National TV reached by CCTV or (CCTV and Taiyuan 16 84 PSTV PSTV) Kunming 20 80 Jingjinji 25 75 1 Percent of respondents who have received product/service information from TV ads in the past 2 months, think this is a credible source, and will pay attention to the information Source: McKinsey Insights China; McKinsey analysis
  13. 13. 14 Crafting a cluster-based strategy With the clusters mapped out, consumption could top 13.3 trillion companies then need to choose renminbi (US$1.94 trillion)5 by which ones to target, and what then, making China the third largest strategies to employ for each. Four consumer market in the world only key steps are essential in making after the US and Japan. these decisions: look for the fastest growing clusters; prioritize target But wealth is developing unevenly clusters; set cluster level aspirations; across China, and companies and define strategic archetypes and that extrapolate new market tailor go-to-market strategies. opportunities by simply looking at past sources of growth are unlikely to succeed. Understanding which Look for the fastest clusters will yield the most attractive growing clusters growth opportunities is critical Between 2008 and 2015, 75 million for prioritizing investments. The urban households will be joining the decision a company takes to invest ranks of the middle class, defined as in capturing market leadership, or consumers that have annual income focus on holding market share, will of 50,000 to 120,000 renminbi. hinge largely on the foresight it has As incomes go up, so does the about which markets will be the ability to spend: by 2015, per capita most attractive in coming years. consumption in China could reach 17,000 renminbi, up from 13,400 For example, Hefei’s middle class renminbi in 2008. Total urban population is expected to swell 5 2005 real renminbi
  14. 14. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 15 from 35 percent in 2008 to 67 As more and more Chinese percent in 2015, in contrast with households join the ranks of the Hangzhou, which is expected to see middle class they can increasingly its middle class population inch afford to buy more than just the up from 73 percent to 75 percent bare necessities of life such as over the same period. Different food or healthcare. As they move growth rates of the middle class up the income ladder, consumers translate into varying rates of shift their spending toward home growth in consumption. Of China’s appliances, personal computers, 100 largest cities, 25 are expected and personal care products, as to see a doubling of consumption well as discretionary items such as between 2008 and 2015. Cities in entertainment or luxury goods. this category include Beijing, Yantai, Weihai and Songyuan. Another 25 The rapid emergence of the middle cities, including Shanghai, Wuhan, class in some cities will drive and Zhanjiang, are expected to see above-market growth in certain their consumption increase more categories. For example, while than 50 percent and up to almost Hangzhou is expected to enjoy 100 percent over the same period. an impressive 14 percent average Even many of those cities that are annual increase in the demand for expected to eke out single-digit automobiles between 2008 and growth rates will still exceed global 2015, Hefei, with its surging middle benchmarks, representing attractive class, is expected to see an annual business opportunities. increase in demand of 36 percent.
  15. 15. 16 Prioritize target clusters Guangzhou cluster, for example, TV viewers prefer provincial TV As lower tier cities grow, strategies that focus only on higher tier cities which is broadcast predominantly in are becoming less cost effective. Cantonese. In addition to negotiating They also risk concentrating better trade terms with retailers investments inefficiently on cities and logistics providers at a cluster with lower synergies and missing level, one personal care company out on a lot of the growth. Instead, quadrupled net margins by cutting utilizing McKinsey ClusterMap, back on local TV advertisements companies should focus on pursuing once it learned that advertising on a limited number of priority clusters national TV was more effective. where they can build scale and Just as they make choices regarding share distribution infrastructure, which clusters to target, and which supply chain, and sales force across to invest in fighting for market several cities. Companies must also leadership, companies will also make choices based on a host of need to prioritize between cities factors: the prevalence of modern channels such as department within clusters, between distribution stores and hypermarkets versus channels, and even between traditional mom and pop outlets; individual sales outlets. the degree to which consumers are brand loyal or price sensitive; Set cluster level and their willingness to try new aspirations products, to name just a few. As a company thinks about pursuing market leadership across different Investing in expanding their clusters, it needs to consider the presence in cities surrounding Guangzhou, before pushing for intensely local nature of competition. growth in and around Xiamen and Many regional Chinese players and Fuzhou, for example, may be faster multinational companies have built and cheaper, and therefore yield a strongholds in some regions which better return on investment. have contributed disproportionately to their profits. While national Beefing up presence in a cluster scale matters to a certain degree where a company has an established (especially for brands using national presence not only allows it to TV), regional scale matters even leverage longer regional expertise more, and many brands have and share resources, but also allows managed to succeed regionally even a company to take advantage of though they can’t compete effectively synergies in TV viewership. In the at a national level.
  16. 16. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 17 Take for example the popular chosen by applying McKinsey Chinese spirit baijiu (白酒). With the ClusterMap methodology, exception of a few super premium companies should set market share brands that are pursuing aggressive aspirations at levels that will give national strategies, most brands hold them a defensible position: as much as 40 percent to 50 percent 40 percent, for instance. market share in a certain cluster or region, but only 2 percent to 3 percent of the national market. This Define strategic phenomenon is played out in dozens “archetypes” and tailor of product categories across China’s go-to-market strategies more than two dozen city clusters. The idea that a company would need By focusing on a handful of clusters to devise a different strategy for in southern China, for example, one each of China’s 22 or more clusters domestic food and beverage player sounds daunting. Tailoring products, has built a dominant position with training salesforces, managing market share of over 40 percent. In distribution channels, and designing other parts of China, they are either marketing campaigns to appeal to very small or not present at all. the vast differences among Chinese consumers in different clusters can The role of word of mouth in quickly deplete budgets and absorb building consumer confidence in management attention. Thus, to brands is one reason why companies prioritize and concentrate their can establish such strong regional resources, companies should group positions. Network effects come clusters into three or four “arche- into play: the more consumers see a brand being consumed, the types” based on shared character- more confidence they have in that istics and strategic objectives, and brand, and the more likely they design a specific strategy for each. are to purchase it. This dynamic is One food and beverage player reinforced for products in which organized their target clusters their consumption is more visible into 4 archetypes based on their to others, or for products that are competitive position and aspirations consumed on social occasions. for particular clusters. The first Companies will need to adjust their archetype includes clusters that aspirations based on the inherent they call the “strongholds”, sizeable, attractiveness of the cluster as well fast-growing markets where they are as their ability to compete there. already winning and they need to Once priority clusters have been defend at all cost.
  17. 17. 18 “Must win” clusters are those Of course, what works for one in which they are not currently company may not work for another. the market leader, but where While the food and beverage they want to achieve a dominant company mentioned above settled position because of the size of on 4 cluster archetypes, a personal the market and the rapid growth care company identified 3 archetypes rate. “Must win” clusters are according to whether consumers those where the company needs preferred traditional bar soap, to deploy new product solutions whether they used liquid soap, or and new communications whether they were in the process strategies to convince of converting from bar soap to consumers to switch brands. liquid. The company developed very different product portfolios, “Up and coming” clusters are those brand and marketing strategies, in which per capita consumption distribution models, and sales tactics for a specific category in which they for each archetype. compete may still be small, but the expected growth rate far exceeds *** market average. In these clusters, the Averages no longer paint a complete company has earmarked marketing picture of the Chinese consumer. funds for consumer education to By using the McKinsey ClusterMap, raise awareness among consumers of companies can develop a far the benefits associated with products more granular understanding of in that category. similarities and differences in consumer behavior and consumption The rest of the clusters are patterns, and how consumption categorized as “wait and see”, will likely evolve over the next which are either too small or several years. Equipped with this too competitive to prioritize. understanding, companies can In these clusters, the company develop more effective strategies, keeps investment at a minimum whether they are seeking to enter to ensure that their brand is the Chinese market, accelerate known and products are available growth by identifying new markets, in distribution channels. or improve the profitability of their existing business.
  18. 18. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 19
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  20. 20. McKinsey Insights China 2009 Annual Chinese Consumer Study: Part II 21 About the study The study included a comprehensive survey of Chinese consumers: „ The consumer survey was conducted from December 2008 to March 2009. This is the fourth year that McKinsey has conducted a comprehensive survey of Chinese consumers „ The survey covered overall consumer attitudes towards life, general shopping behavior, leisure activities, financial management habits, product and brand-specific purchasing behavior „ The survey covered 7 major product categories, including food and beverages, consumer electronics, apparel, automotive, housing, home and personal care, and healthcare „ Sample size of 15,000 respondents in 58 cities (4 tier-1, 10 tier-2, 22 tier-3, and 22 tier-4); 110-700 samples collected in each city „ Respondents included key decision-makers and influencers in family purchases; minimum monthly household income of 800-2,000 renminbi; Age: 15-65 years old The study also included extensive macroeconomic research: „ Econometric model consisting of over 30,000+ equations, including macroeconomic and demographic forecasts for the period 2007-2025 „ Over 150 interviews with relevant experts „ City visits and interviews with more than 100 local government officials and business leaders to complement the model findings „ More than 2 years’ of work by 25 consultants
  21. 21. 22 McKinsey Insights China Insights China provides businesses with the data, analytics and rapid, customized problem-solving and decision-making support to help build robust strategies for China’s rapidly changing marketplace. The data and analysis combine results from McKinsey’s annual Chinese consumer surveys with proprietary macroeconomic and demographic data and analysis from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). Since 2005, we have interviewed more than 30,000 Chinese consumers, giving us a deep understanding of Chinese consumers’ attitudes and spending behavior in more than 100 product categories. The respondents come from a wide range of incomes, ages, regions and cities, and represent 80 percent of China’s GDP, 90 percent of its disposable income and 50 percent of the population. In 2008, we conducted an additional study of 1,750 consumers with annual household incomes in excess of RMB 250,000, giving us unprecedented insight into the behavior of this fast expanding and economically important segment. The macroeconomic and demographic data offers detailed historic and forecast data on population, income, and consumption for more than 800 cities. We update the information twice yearly to account for changing conditions. McKinsey experts are at hand to offer guidance, including the facilitation of workshops to address specific business issues. In addition, we have a registered panel of more than 5,000 mainstream Chinese consumers and 500 wealthy Chinese consumers to help further explore such issues in a timely fashion. For more information about Insights China, please contact one of the following experts: Vinay Dixit +86 (21) 6132 3095 vinay_dixit@mckinsey.com Jennifer Ding +86 (21) 6133 4248 jennifer_ding@mckinsey.com Or email us at: insights_china@mckinsey.com Visit our website at: http://insightschina.bymckinsey.com
  22. 22. McKinsey Asia Consumer and Retail September 2009 Copyright © McKinsey & Company http://insightschina.bymckinsey.com