2009-05 May/June Global Monitor

May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor Summary: • Economy has peaked in terms of spending, production & employment • Global economy in Stage 5 – Early Downturn Stocks: May have further downside risk (perhaps 20%) Commodities: Likely to have formed a bottom Government Bonds: Likely to have formed a top Firm Strategy: Budget offerings, look for long-term supplier contracts Personal Strategy: Protect job, expand skills, reduce spending, rent

Global Economic Summary, Asset, Personal & Business Strategy 2 Global Economy Personal Strategy 1. Consumer sentiment remains at historical lows 1. Conservative Investor: Cash is king, wait for transition to equities 2. Consumer wealth is falling with stocks recovering and property continuing to fall 2. Aggressive Investor: Long-term government bonds 3. Consumer spending (demand) growth continues to 3. Property: Rent over buy if possible contract 4. Employment: Protect job, expand skills 4. Business production/service activity continues to 5. Finances: Reduce debt and spending contract 6. Debt: Look to refinance at lower interest rates 5. The global manufacturing/services PMI is recovering from record lows Business Strategy 6. Global unemployment continues to rise 1. Competitive Strategy: Continue budget offerings 7. Leading indicators in several economies have, or 2. Operational Strategy: Continue cost reductions, are close to bottoming reduce inventory 8. The OECD World CLI may bottom as early as June 3. Human Resources: Review remuneration 9. The global economy is early in Stage 5 – Early conditions Downturn 4. Supplier Strategy: Anticipate upcoming purchase of capital equipment Asset Classes 5. Acquisitions/Divestments: Anticipate possible 1. Equities: Possible short-term top in place, further acquisitions risk to downside 2. Property: Further falls ahead into November 2010 3. Bonds: A likely top was achieved in December 2009 4. Commodities: Recovering from 09Q1 bottom May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Global Economy: What stage are we in? 3 The business cycle is Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery Actual currently in Economy 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late Stage 5 – Early Downturn. OECD Leading The trigger for the Indicator (100) transition to Stage 6 is increasing consumer OECD Reference Series (100) sentiment and spending, leading to a reversal in Consumer production related series. Sentiment Consumer Spending Grth Industrial Production Rising Stagnating Falling Falling Stagnates Rising Rising Stagnating PMI Above 50 Above 50 to 50 Thru 50 Below 50 Below 50 To 50 At 50 Rising Stagnating Falling Falling Stagnates Rising Rising Stagnating PSI Above 50 Above 50 to 50 Thru 50 Below 50 Below 50 To 50 At 50 Unemployment Rate Business Investment Reserve Bank Funds Rate 8 Stage Business Cycle May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

8 Stage Asset Class Cycle: Where to invest? 4 Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery Asset Classes 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late Stock Market Commodity Sectors Government Bonds Stock Market • The stock market may have bottomed for the business cycle o March 6, 2009. • Stocks may have further downside (~30%) once the March 6 rally concludes • The current ‘green shoots’ rally is only partially supported by economic fundamentals (no increase in consumer sentiment, credit or spending; and no bottom in industrial production or employment) Commodity Sector • Most commodities, particularly copper and oil, are rising strongly • The Baltic Dry Index bottomed a second time in April pointing to further rises ahead • Sound long-term commodity fundamentals have commodities ahead of our 8-stage economic model Bond Sector • Extreme central bank interest rate interventions have bonds ahead of our 8-stage model predictions • The top in bonds appears to have been achieved in Dec 2009 8 Stage Business Cycle May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

8 Stage Firm Business Cycle: Business Strategy Ideas? 5 Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery Business Strategy 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late Competitive Budget Quality Key Customers New Customers Offerings Offerings Strategy Sales Consider long- Move to long- Key Customers Consider short- Move to short- New Cust. term contracts term contracts Budget Offers term contracts term contracts Quality Offers Strategy Operations More cost Expand Cost cutting Plan Expansion cutting Operations Strategy Human Review Avoid wage Enter wage Limit Hires Hire Staff negotiation negotiation conditions Resources Acquisitions/ Avoid acq., Sell Plan for Make assets acquisitions acquisitions Divestments Supplier Move to short- Press for Move to long- Press quality term discounts term Contracts Debt (Loan) Sell assets, Seek short-term Ensure credit Procure capital Seek long-term reduce debt funds availability equip funds Management Firm Business Cycle Strategy Ideas • Continue to focus on budget offerings, consumers/customers/clients are under financial pressure • Target sales activity towards key customers with budget offerings (recognise their financial pressure) • Look to use the crisis to implement cost cutting, institute more efficient work practices/processes • Look to review wage remuneration rates to lock in lower unit labour costs • If cashed up, start planning for acquisitions that will expand market share or product offering • Continue to press for discounts from your major suppliers 8 Stage Business Cycle May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

8 Stage Personal Business Cycle: Personal Strategy Ideas? 6 Personal Expansion Slowdown Downturn Recovery Strategy 1. Early 2. Late 3. Early 4. Late 5. Early 6. Late 7. Early 8. Late Conservative Stock Transition to Transition to Stock Market Stock Market Term Deposit Term Deposit Stock Market cash stock market Investing Strat. Market Aggressive Stocks & Stocks & High Quality High Quality Corporate Transition to Commodities Stock Market Commodities Commodities Long Bonds Long Bonds Bonds Stocks Investing Strat. Employment Pursue Seek secure Become Plan next Assume Pursue Seek wage rise Expand skills promotion employment indispensible career move responsibility promotion Strategy Spending & Debt Cut back, Focus on Buy major Take long-term Essential only retire debt retiring debt items debt Strategy Housing Avoid buying here, prices and Avoid buying here, lower as Try to buy here, prices and sentiment buoyant lower prices are ahead sentiment subdued Considerations Personal Business Cycle Strategy Ideas • Conservative investors remain in cash. Begin planning your stock investments as we approach Stage 6 • Aggressive Investor may look to transition towards corporate bonds or look for a stock market bottom • This is a time to expand career skills through skills training or difficult assignments • Focus on essential purchases only at this stage, look to retire debt • Avoid buying property here if possible, lower prices are ahead 8 Stage Business Cycle May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Global OECD Composite Leading Indicators 7 The past month has revealed a pronounced recovery in European, Chinese and Korean CLI. The rate of deceleration in the remaining CLI has also slowed noticeably. In principle this suggests a global recovery in the September-December 2009 timeframe. Global Economic Maps May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Global OECD Standardised Unemployment Rate 8 All nations shown now have rising unemployment over a 3month period. Whilst Spain remains in unemployment purgatory, we see the US and Canada leading OECD nations into recession induced high unemployment with high and increasing unemployment rates. Global Economic Maps May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Global OECD Standardised Consumer Confidence 9 Consumer confidence appears to have bottomed with most nations moving into the recovery quadrant (rising 3 month confidence). Only China and Germany still have low and declining consumer confidence. Global Economic Maps May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Global OECD Standardised Business Confidence 10 Business confidence remains subdued globally. US, France and Brazilian business confidence appears to be improving, whilst Australia’s has stabilised at a low level. Confidence in most other OECD nations continues to decline. Global Economic Maps May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

JP Morgan Global All-Industry PMI 11 Mar Apr Summary 40.1 43.2 Output Contracting at slower rate 37.8 44.0 New Orders Contracting at slower rate 37.5 40.6 Employment Declining at record rate 41.3 42.3 Input Prices Falling at slower rate Note index is a diffusion index, >50 indicates improvement over previous month, <50 a decrease, =50 indicates no change. Noticeable improvement in the Global All Industry PMI to 43.2 indicating contraction at a much slower rate. The rise in new orders made a big increase to 44 and the improvement in employment was not worthy, though still indicating decline. Global Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI 12 Mar Apr Summary 37.3 41.8 Global PMI Contracting at slower rate 35.3 41.3 Output Contracting at slower rate 35.9 43.8 New Orders Contracting at slower rate 38.1 40.6 35.9 Declining at slower rate 34.2 35.5 Input Prices Falling at slower rate Note index is a diffusion index, >50 indicates improvement over previous month, <50 a decrease, =50 indicates no change. The Global PMI improved substantially in April though still indicating contraction. All elements posted noteworthy improvements with new orders being the most important. Global Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

JP Morgan Global Services PMI 13 Mar Apr Summary Output/ 41.5 43.8 Contracting at slower rate Activity New 38.3 44.0 Contracting at slower rate Business Backlogs of 40.6 42.7 Contracting at slower rate Work 38.0 41.3 Employment Declining at slower rate 43.3 44.2 Input Prices Falling at slower rate Note index is a diffusion index, >50 indicates improvement over previous month, <50 a decrease, =50 indicates no change. The JP Morgan Global Service PMI improved noticeably for April to 43.8. Whilst all elements remain in contraction, backlog improved, new business was steady, and employment and input prices fell. Global Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD World/NAFTA CLI & Industrial Production 14 The World* CLI declined just 0.09 to 91.14 in The NAFTA CLI declined 0.42 to 90.63 in March March (previous month decline 0.41). This CLI will (previous month decline 0.74). If the trend of a likely bottom in April (next month). slowing rate of decline continues the CLI should bottom in 2 months (May 2009). Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 recovery in 4th quarter 2009. month delay on the CLI suggests and economic recovery in 1st quarter 2010. Global Leading Indicators May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD Major 4 Europe/Major 5 Asia CLI & Industrial Production 15 The Major 4 Europe CLI bottomed in March rising The Major 5 Asia CLI bottomed in March rising 0.38 to 94.91 (previous month steady). 0.20 to 92.16 (previous month decline 0.14). Industrial production continues to fall. A 6-9 Industrial production continues to fall. A 6-9 month delay on CLI bottoming suggests an month delay on the CLI suggests and economic economic recovery in 4th quarter 2009. recovery in 1st quarter 2010. Global Leading Indicators May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD CLI Analysis: US, China, Australia, & World 16 The peak rate of decline of the US (consumer), China (manufacturer) and World CLI was in November 2008. Australia (commodities) decline rate peaked in January 2009. We anticipate global CLI bottoming over the next 2 months, with an economic recovery in late 2009-early2010. Leading Indicator Analysis May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US, UK & Australian House Price Index 17 Global house prices continue to decline. US, UK and Australian prices are down 32%, 18% and 7% respectively. The US market peaked in June 2006, the UK in October 2007 (US +16 months), and Australian in March 2008 (US + 21 months). S&P Case-Shiller Futures data suggests US house prices will bottom in November 2010 with a peak-trough decline of 35.9% (115.2 on the index). Global Property May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US, UK & Australian House Price Annualised Rate of Change 18 Global house prices continue to decline with the US, UK and Australian prices falling at 18.8%, 15.0% and 6.7% per annum respectively. The gain from June 1994 to the peak was 194%, 261%, and 204% respectively (Perth, Australia 351%). Only UK house prices are showing a slowing in the rate of house price declines. Global Property May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD United States CLI & Industrial Production 19 The US CLI declined 0.56 to 89.90 in March (previous month decline 0.87). If the trend of a slowing rate of decline continues the CLI should bottom in 2 months (May 2009). Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 1st quarter 2010. US Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US Consumer Sentiment and Personal Consumption 20 Real personal consumption spending continues to US Consumer Confidence (via Uni Michigan survey) contract at near record rates. remains near record lows despite small for the month. We need to see a rise in spending as a precursor to Look for a rise above 65 towards 70+ as evidence a general recovery. of recovery. US Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US Industrial Production Growth & Unemployment Rate 21 Unemployment is sky-rocketing, up 0.4% to 8.9%. Industrial production continues to collapse, down The rate of rise suggests unemployment above 6.8% year-on-year. Lower production means less 10% is certain. need for workers… Falling employment will lead to lower spending and further US house price declines. US Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US GDP Growth and Private Employment Growth 22 Private employment growth, our bellwether US GDP continues to decline, currently -2.6% yoy. indicator, continues contract (-4.7%). USPRIV is The rate of decline in production and employment indicating Stage 5 – Early Downturn for the US suggest further declines ahead. economy. US Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

ISM PMI/NMF: Historical of New Orders and Production/Activity 23 All aspects of current activity and new orders for production and services activity improved dramatically for the month, continuing to suggest peak contraction has past. US Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD Euro Area CLI, IP and Unemployment 24 The Euro Area CLI rose 0.28 to 94.35 in March Continues to rise, up 0.4% to 8.9% in March. (previous month decline 0.04). Plunging industrial production point to further rises ahead… Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 4th quarter 2009. Euro Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

EC Euro Economic Sentiment, Business Climate & Production 25 Economic sentiment bottomed in March across Europe. Business climate also bottomed though the key is European industrial production which continues to decline (currently -18.5% yoy). Euro Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD Japan CLI, IP and Unemployment 26 The Japan CLI declined 1.03 to 88.96 in March Unemployment rose to 4.8% reversing the (previous month decline 1.23). If the rate of previous months small gain. The rate of decline in decline remains stable, the CLI should bottom in 5 industrial production suggest further rises ahead. months (September 2009). Industrial production in Japan has simply collapsed with signs of further falls ahead. A 6-9 month lag on the CLI would suggest a recovery in 2nd Qtr 2010. Japan Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD China CLI, IP and CLSA PMI 27 The CLSA China Manufacturing PMI™ rose to 50.1 The China CLI rose 0.85 to 93.0 in March (previous in April, from 44.8, to signal Chinese month rise 0.40). manufacturing expansion for the first time in nine months. Industrial production bottomed in March against expectations. This is confirmed by the CLSA PMI (see opposite). China Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD German CLI & Industrial Production 28 The German CLI declined 0.36 to 89.61 in March German unemployment rises continues to rise, up (previous month decline 0.68). It is likely that the 0.2% to 7.6% in March. German CLI will bottom in April.. The rate of decline in industrial production suggests Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 further rises ahead. month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 1st quarter 2010.. German Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD United Kingdom CLI & Industrial Production 29 The UK CLI rose 0.30 to 96.58 in March (previous UK unemployment continues to rise, up 0.2% to month rise 0.07) after bottoming in February. 6.4% in January from cycle lows in December 2007. Industrial production continues to decline. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 4th quarter 2009. United Kingdom Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD France CLI & Industrial Production 30 The France CLI rose 1.16 to 97.94 in March Unemployment rose 0.2% to 8.8% in March. (previous month rise 0.45) following the January 2009 bottom. Declining industrial production suggests further rises ahead. Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 3rd quarter 2009. France Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD Italian CLI & Industrial Production 31 The Italian CLI rose 0.75 to 97.36 in March Unemployment held steady in December at 6.9%. (previous month rise 0.41) following a bottom in However the trend is for continued increases from January 2009. the May 2007 lows. Industrial production continues to decline. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 3rd quarter 2009. Italian Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD Canadian CLI & Industrial Production 32 Canadian unemployment held steady at 8.0% in The Canadian CLI declined 0.44 to 91.12 in March April. The continuing decline in production suggests (previous month decline 0.76). The Canada CLI further job losses are ahead. should bottom in April. Industrial production continues to decline. A 6-9 month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 1st quarter 2010. Canadian Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD Australian CLI & Industrial Production 33 The Australian CLI declined 0.55 to 96.23 in March Unemployment rose to 5.5% with higher rates of (previous month decline also 0.55). We estimate unemployment expected. the Australian CLI will bottom in the 3rd Qtr 2009. Full time employment is now contracting on an Industrial production continues to collapse. A 6-9 annualised basis. month delay on the CLI suggests an economic recovery in 2nd quarter 2010. Australian Economy May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US Treasury Yields (Overnight, 1 Year, 10 year) 34 1yr US Treasury notes remain ~0.5% yield matching 10yr US Treasury bonds yields are at 3.1% up from a low of 2.1%. the 0-0.25% target Federal Reserve Funds rate. Rising short-term yields indicate higher investor risk tolerance, economic recovery or inflation. Global Economy (via US Economy) May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Inflation v Deflation (via US 10 Year Treasury Yields) 35 Implied 10yr future inflation predictions have widened, though remain at very low levels (1.4% against a normal 2.5%). Rising inflation expectations reflect growing unease at central bank monetary policies related to money printing. Global Economy (via US Economy) May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US Consumer Debt Outstanding & Debt Servicing Payments 36 Debt service payments are down slightly to a still- Consumer debt growth again hit a series low of very-high 14.0%. The high payments and inability 0.4%. The current crisis can be described as ‘peak to expand credit further are a major drain on the credit’ as the fall in credit-fueled spending is one of economy. the major causes of the economic contraction. Global Economy (via US Economy) May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US GDP, Consumer Debt & Personal Consumption 37 Consumer credit growth continues to contract The fall in annualised GDP is easily seen in light of which is ominous for consumption and GDP. changes in annual consumer credit growth. Personal consumption expenditure growth is clearly driven by consumer credit (debt) growth. Both are declining in tandem. Global Economy (via US Economy) May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

US Personal Savings Rate 38 US consumers have reversed their spending patterns of the last decade, achieving a savings rate not seen since 1995. The need to save is driven by record high indebtedness and debt servicing payments. Whilst this chart is provided for the US, it is representative of the savings patterns of consumers in other OECD nations such as the UK and Australia. Global Economy (via US Economy) May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Oil Price Change (annualised) and Industrial Production 39 However, industrial production continues to The bottoming in oil price annual change suggests decline at a rapid rate, not yet confirming a bottom a recovery in economic activity (or a slowdown in in the oil series. the rate of decline). Global Economy (via US Economy) May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Inflation: Consumer, Manufacturer, Commodities 40 Consumer, producer and commodity inflation remains negative (deflation). Rising prices indicate a potential recovery as seller regain pricing power resulting in higher prices. This is not happening at this stage. Global Economy (via US Economy) May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Commodities Basket 41 Rising commodity prices signal increasing economic activity. A rise above 248 on the CRB should confirm economic strength is returning to the global economy. Commodities May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Oil Price and US Oil Stocks 42 The US (as indicator for the global economy) The last 2 weeks have seen a powerful rise in oil to continues to accumulate oil inventories, albeit at a $60. In setting new highs, oil is signalling that the slightly reduced rate. This seems at odds with collapse in global economic activity has ended. recent rises in the oil price. Commodities May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Dr Copper and the Baltic Dry Index 43 The second BDI bottom in early April suggests Dr Copper confirmed a ended to the economic continued strength in the commodity sector collapse in December 09. The January-May rise, if ahead. sustained, strongly suggests an economic recovery is imminent. The Baltic Dry Index is the daily shipping rate for bulk dry cargo Copper is a useful leading economic indicator as it is a key material ships carrying goods such as iron ore, coal and wheat. It is believed in the manufacture of durable goods, particularly electrical and to provide a good leading indicator of economic activity. plumbing items. Commodities May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Agriculture (Grains) & Livestock 44 Livestock prices remain range bound within a The breakout in agriculture (grains) prices from slowly rising trend. 300 is significant suggesting the period of price consolidation is over. Commodities May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Gold and the US Dollar 45 The last month has seen a downside break for the Gold looks to be breaking out of the downtrend USD. This is positive for commodities and the from the mid-February highs. This is consistent stock market but negative for US bonds. with the overall trend higher for all commodities. Commodities May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Stock Market Primary Trend 46 The short-term (1-2 months) trend for the stock market may be down if the large run up in the NYSI is any guide. The NYSI has accurately called trend changes in the past within a few days of a bottom/top. May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Stock Market: Developed Economies 47 Consistent with early signs of a recovering economy, developed stock markets have rallied from the March 6, 2009 lows. Short term the trend may be down to consolidate these gains. The index covers the US (^GSPC), Japan (^N225), UK (^FTSE), Germany (^GDAXI), France (^FCHI), Australia (^AORD), Canada (^SPTSE), Spain (^SMSI), and Italy (^SPMIB). Stock Markets May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Stock Market: Emerging Economies 48 Emerging markets (BRIC) recovered on March 9, 2009 along with developed markets. Short-term the trend may be down (along with developed markets) to consolidate these gains. The index covers Brazil (^BVSP), Russia (^RTS.RS) and India (^BSESN), China (^HSI). The US (^GSPC) is provided as a reference series to enable a comparison with developed markets above. Stock Markets May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Bond Market: US 7-10 & 20+ Year Treasury Bonds 49 Bond prices (long and shorter duration) appear to have peaked for the cycle in December 2008. The recent market rally combined with adverse central bank policies (money printing) combine to lower bond prices and raise bond yields. The index covers the iShares Lehman 7-10yr Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) and iShares Lehman 20+yr Treasury Bond Fund (TLT). The US (^GSPC) is provided as a reference series to enable a comparison with developed markets above. Bond Markets May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD CLI & Industrial Production (Nations 1-4) 50 Global Composite Leading Indicators May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

OECD CLI & Industrial Production (Nations 21-23, South Africa) 55 Global Composite Leading Indicators May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

BCM Book of the Month: Meltdown… 56 Meltdown: A Free Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse • Is Capitalism the Culprit? • The media tells us that \"deregulation\" and \"unfettered free markets\" have wrecked our economy and will continue to make things worse without a heavy dose of federal regulation. • But the real blame lies elsewhere. In Meltdown, bestselling author Thomas E. Woods Jr. unearths the real causes behind the collapse of housing values and the stock market- -and it turns out the culprits reside more in Washington than on Wall Street. • And the trillions of dollars in federal bailouts? Our politicians' ham-handed attempts to fix the problems they themselves created will only make things much worse. • Available on the BCM Website: – Podcasts – Book Reviews – Websites May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

57 Useful? Register at www.business-cycle-monitor.com to receive this free publication each month. Additionally, you can register to receive our BCM US Monitor ($0.99/month), or our BCM Australian Monitor ($1.49/month). These country specific publications provide far greater detail on their respective economies. Essential reading!! Understand, monitor and exploit the business cycle… May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

Disclaimer, Fair Use, Copyright 58 Disclaimer. Mark Walmsley B.Eng, MSc, MBA is the Business Cycle Monitor editor. The statements, opinions, buy or sell signals, and analysis presented in this document are provided as a general information and are for news commentary and educational services only. All opinions, estimates, buy or sell signals, and predictions expressed herein constitute the judgment of the author as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in the newsletter is expressed in good faith, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Nothing contained in this newsletter is intended to be, nor shall it be construed as, investment advice, nor is it to be relied upon in making any investment or other decision. Prior to making any investment decision, you are advised to consult your financial planner, broker or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine the suitability of any investment. Neither Business Cycle Monitor nor Mark Walmsley shall be held responsible or have any liability for investment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Fair Use Policy. The BCM Global Monitor is sold to customers for personal use only. BCM considers it ‘fair use’ to forward one copy of the BCM Monthly to friends, family or associates for the purpose of introducing said individuals to BCM monthly publications. Such introductions lead to increased subscribership, greater research resources and a higher quality report. BCM does not consider it ‘fair use’ to repeatedly forward BCM products to individuals thus circumventing this policy. Copyright. Copyright 2009. All rights reserved. Business-Cycle Information. This summary should be read in conjunction with the business cycle articles and references provided at www.business-cycle-monitor.com. These provide additional information on how the business cycles functions. Description and References. Additional information on these indicators, global maps, the simplified economic model and the sources used in this publication can be found at the BCM website. www.business-cycle-monitor.com May/June 2009 BCM Global Monitor

2009-05 May/June Global Monitor

0 comments

Notes on slide 1

3 Favorites