David mok bizad 45 anniversary presentation may 2010 v2

667 views
619 views

Published on

Published in: Education, Technology, Automotive
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
667
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

David mok bizad 45 anniversary presentation may 2010 v2

  1. 1. Greece, Euro and You David Mok, CFA May 2010 Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  2. 2. What Do We Do Now? • Latest Crisis • Greece, PIIGS • Euro dollar • Credit freeze • Austerity measures throughout affected economies • Fear of contagion • Sovereign Debt Risks • Greece-Euro • Another Meltdown? Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  3. 3. Market Perspective 2008 2009 YTD Return MSCI WORLD -42% 27% -8% DOW JONES INDUS. AVG -34% 19% -2% S&P 500 INDEX -38% 23% -3% NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -41% 44% -3% DAX INDEX -40% 24% -2% FTSE 100 INDEX -31% 22% -5% CAC 40 INDEX -43% 22% -11% NIKKEI 225 -42% 19% -4% SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -65% 80% -22% HANG SENG INDEX -48% 52% -9% KOSPI INDEX -41% 50% -5% STRAITS TIMES INDEX -49% 65% -4% ALL ORDINARIES INDX -43% 33% -9% BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -52% 81% -5% Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  4. 4. % Drop From Recent High % Drop From Recent High MSCI WORLD -14.34% DOW JONES INDUS. AVG -11.57% S&P 500 INDEX -13.19% NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX -16.00% DAX INDEX -14.18% FTSE 100 INDEX -13.12% CAC 40 INDEX -16.55% NIKKEI 225 -13.71% SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE -26.37% HANG SENG INDEX -14.81% TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX -13.69% KOSPI INDEX -11.38% STRAITS TIMES OLD INDEX -11.13% BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX -12.13% Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  5. 5. Past Market Crashes 0% -10% -12% -20% -30% -40% -40% -40% -29% -36% -31% -38% ? -50% -45% -49% -60% -54% -70% -80% -90% -89% Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved -100%
  6. 6. PAST CRASHES - RATE OF RECOVERY 590% 490% 390% 290% 190% 90% -10% 73 1 13 25 37 49 61 85 97 121 325 109 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313 337 349 361 373 385 397 409 421 433 445 457 469 481 493 505 517 1929 Crash 1968 Crash 1972 Crash 1978 Crash Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved 1987 Crash 1990 Crash 2000 Crash 2007 Crash
  7. 7. PAST 8 CRASHES SINCE 1928 - RATE OF RECOVERY 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% 30% 10% -10% 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 121 385 109 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313 325 337 349 361 373 397 409 421 433 445 457 469 481 493 505 517 1929 Crash 1968 Crash 1972 Crash 1978 Crash Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved 1987 Crash 1990 Crash 2000 Crash 2007 Crash
  8. 8. Fundamentals • What is the state of world economies currently? – U.S. • 1Q GDP rose 3.2% year-on-year, • Housing starts rose to 626,000 vs. 605,000, an 18.8% jump in multi-family starts, • ISM manufacturing data came in at 59.6 in March vs. 56.3 expected indicating a rise in manufacturing activity, • Retail sales beat forecasts rising 1.6% vs.1.0% • In April, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 – Euro • UK Jobless Claims: - 27.1k vs. – 20.0K expected, • EU GDP (QoQ): 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  9. 9. Fundamentals • What is the state of world economies currently? – Asia • China reported a 1Q10 GDP expansion of 11.9 percent. • Singapore recorded 15.5% yoy growth in Q1. • Japan’s economy grew a relatively robust 1.2 per cent in the first quarter. • Taiwan reported first quarter yoy GDP growth of 13.27 per cent Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  10. 10. Fundamentals (GDP US$ Trillion) 16.0 14.6 14.0 12.0 10.0 Asian economies 8.0 6.0 4.9 4.3 4.0 Euro troubled economies 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  11. 11. Final Analysis Current Market Perspective Relative Economic Impact Time Risk Past Crashes Horizon Capacity Risk Tolerance Economic Fundamentals Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved
  12. 12. That’s it! Private and Confidential. Copyright reserved

×