Clouds and roofracks

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Presentation for the Interop 2010 Cloud Computing track, looking at the competition within the cloud ecosystem and the "bigger picture" of cloud computing in the context of ubiquitous use of computer …

Presentation for the Interop 2010 Cloud Computing track, looking at the competition within the cloud ecosystem and the "bigger picture" of cloud computing in the context of ubiquitous use of computer technology

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  • There’s a lot of fluff in the cloud market right now.
  • One of the reasons is that many different groups--all of whom have a role to play in the emerging cloud industry.
  • One of the reasons is that many different groups--all of whom have a role to play in the emerging cloud industry.

  • I’m going to define some things.
  • When I explain cloud computing to someone, I ask them where their mail is stored. They say something like “in the cloud.” That’s a useless definition, because it’s synonymous with “web” and “internet.” But outside of this room, most people think it means this.
  • When I explain cloud computing to someone, I ask them where their mail is stored. They say something like “in the cloud.” That’s a useless definition, because it’s synonymous with “web” and “internet.” But outside of this room, most people think it means this.
  • When I explain cloud computing to someone, I ask them where their mail is stored. They say something like “in the cloud.” That’s a useless definition, because it’s synonymous with “web” and “internet.” But outside of this room, most people think it means this.
  • That’s ignoring the conversation I had at the airport.
  • But let’s talk about the technical definition.
  • The step-function nature of dedicated machines doesn’t distribute workload very efficiently.
  • Virtualization lets us put many workloads on a single machine
  • Once workloads are virtualized, several things happen. First, they’re portable
  • Second, they’re ephemeral. That is, they’re short-lived: Once people realize that they don’t have to hoard machines, they spin them up and down a lot more.
  • Which inevitably leads to automation and scripting: We need to spin up and down machines, and move them from place to place. This is hard, error-prone work for humans, but perfect for automation now that rack-and-stack has been replaced by point-and-click
  • Automation, once in place, can have a front end put on it. That leads to self service.
  • ATMs and expectations
  • These are the foundations on which new IT is being built. Taken together, they’re a big part of the movement towards cloud computing, whether that’s in house or on-demand.



  • But despite the title of Nick Carr’s book, the move to more efficient computing isn’t a Big Switch at all
    (emphasize that it's not a sudden transition, but rather a move to elastic, ubiquitous computing)
  • It’s not a matter of flipping a switch and magically moving to some new compute platform


  • The move towards the cloud business model has a lot to do with the economies of scale that exist when you can concentrate infrastructure, and put it near dams.
  • The move towards the cloud business model has a lot to do with the economies of scale that exist when you can concentrate infrastructure, and put it near dams.
  • The move towards the cloud business model has a lot to do with the economies of scale that exist when you can concentrate infrastructure, and put it near dams.
  • The move towards the cloud business model has a lot to do with the economies of scale that exist when you can concentrate infrastructure, and put it near dams.
  • The trifecta of computing, bandwidth, and storage are driving costs down dramatically. Every time Google builds a data center, it can do more than the last one did.
  • They’re becoming reliable and fast enough to think about them as a utiltity. Peter van Eijk is presenting this data at CMG next month, but gave us an early look at some performance benchmarking he’s done on Watchmouse, a European testing platform.
  • Peter’s data also shows that Amazon is making significant headway with infrastructure upgrades that improve performance.
  • And they have more and more points of presence around the world.
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • This is the ranting of luddites and server-huggers
    Of SOA, the insulation of components by consistent APIs
    Of virtualization,which
    - Reduces the minimum order quantity
    - Makes automation possible by making the physical logical
    Of platform standardization
  • But despite what science and technology have revealed, we seem unable to act.





  • If someone wants to have a conversation with me about clouds, they need to pick a tier, and a private or public model. Then we can compare facts.
  • If someone wants to have a conversation with me about clouds, they need to pick a tier, and a private or public model. Then we can compare facts.
  • If someone wants to have a conversation with me about clouds, they need to pick a tier, and a private or public model. Then we can compare facts.
  • If someone wants to have a conversation with me about clouds, they need to pick a tier, and a private or public model. Then we can compare facts.
  • If someone wants to have a conversation with me about clouds, they need to pick a tier, and a private or public model. Then we can compare facts.
  • If someone wants to have a conversation with me about clouds, they need to pick a tier, and a private or public model. Then we can compare facts.

  • Jim Sivers reminded me recently of the paradox of choice. http://sivers.org/jam
    Sheena Iyengar has been studying choice. For her research paper, “When Choice is Demotivating”,They set up a free tasting booth in a grocery store, with six different jams. 40% of the customers stopped to taste. 30% of those bought some.
    A week later, they set up the same booth in the same store, but this time with twenty-four different jams. 60% of the customers stopped to taste. But only 3% bought some!
  • Both groups actually tasted an average of 1.5 jams. So the huge difference in buying can’t be blamed on the 24-jam customers being full. Lessons learned:
    Having many choices seems appealing (40% vs 60% stopped to taste)
    Having many choices makes them 10 times less likely to buy (30% vs 3% actually bought)
    Surgeon Atul Gawande found that 65% of people surveyed said if they were to get cancer, they’d want to choose their own treatment. Among people surveyed who really do have cancer, only 12% of patients want to choose their own treatment.

  • Both groups actually tasted an average of 1.5 jams. So the huge difference in buying can’t be blamed on the 24-jam customers being full. Lessons learned:
    Having many choices seems appealing (40% vs 60% stopped to taste)
    Having many choices makes them 10 times less likely to buy (30% vs 3% actually bought)
    Surgeon Atul Gawande found that 65% of people surveyed said if they were to get cancer, they’d want to choose their own treatment. Among people surveyed who really do have cancer, only 12% of patients want to choose their own treatment.

  • Both groups actually tasted an average of 1.5 jams. So the huge difference in buying can’t be blamed on the 24-jam customers being full. Lessons learned:
    Having many choices seems appealing (40% vs 60% stopped to taste)
    Having many choices makes them 10 times less likely to buy (30% vs 3% actually bought)
    Surgeon Atul Gawande found that 65% of people surveyed said if they were to get cancer, they’d want to choose their own treatment. Among people surveyed who really do have cancer, only 12% of patients want to choose their own treatment.

  • Both groups actually tasted an average of 1.5 jams. So the huge difference in buying can’t be blamed on the 24-jam customers being full. Lessons learned:
    Having many choices seems appealing (40% vs 60% stopped to taste)
    Having many choices makes them 10 times less likely to buy (30% vs 3% actually bought)
    Surgeon Atul Gawande found that 65% of people surveyed said if they were to get cancer, they’d want to choose their own treatment. Among people surveyed who really do have cancer, only 12% of patients want to choose their own treatment.

  • Both groups actually tasted an average of 1.5 jams. So the huge difference in buying can’t be blamed on the 24-jam customers being full. Lessons learned:
    Having many choices seems appealing (40% vs 60% stopped to taste)
    Having many choices makes them 10 times less likely to buy (30% vs 3% actually bought)
    Surgeon Atul Gawande found that 65% of people surveyed said if they were to get cancer, they’d want to choose their own treatment. Among people surveyed who really do have cancer, only 12% of patients want to choose their own treatment.

  • Surgeon Atul Gawande found that 65% of people surveyed said if they were to get cancer, they’d want to choose their own treatment. Among people surveyed who really do have cancer, only 12% of patients want to choose their own treatment.


  • Because anyone can now launch sophisticated IT systems with a credit card and a personal email address, this doesn’t work any more.
  • These days, supercomputing is easier (and cheaper) than booking a flight.
  • It’s more of a spectrum.
  • A spectrum of clouds(from automated bare metal, through hybrid, IaaS, and PaaS)
  • A spectrum of clouds(from automated bare metal, through hybrid, IaaS, and PaaS)
  • A spectrum of clouds(from automated bare metal, through hybrid, IaaS, and PaaS)
  • A spectrum of clouds(from automated bare metal, through hybrid, IaaS, and PaaS)
  • A spectrum of clouds(from automated bare metal, through hybrid, IaaS, and PaaS)
  • A spectrum of clouds(from automated bare metal, through hybrid, IaaS, and PaaS)
  • A spectrum of clouds(from automated bare metal, through hybrid, IaaS, and PaaS)
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.
  • Going forward, we’ll see hybrid on-premise/on demand hybrid clouds that can intelligently move processing tasks between private an public infrastructure according to performance requirements, pricing policies, and security restrictions.




  • So how will this play out?

  • So how will this play out?
  • For infrastructure, we’ll see a few, big companies who have achieved economies of scale; with specialized ones on the periphery to cater to specific vertical needs
  • This is Amazon’s spot market for the last few months, showing the hourly price of an EC2 instance. As Randy Bias of cloudscaling points out, Amazon has launched roughly 4 innovations a month in the last year. That’s far more than any IT industry.
  • 4,419,953 certified Microsoft professionals as of September, 2008
  • The scale of the cloud is important too. Services have network effects. The phone service is more useful when more people use it. So, too, a social graph from Facebook is more useful than a social graph from Friendster.
  • The general-purpose PaaS guys won’t survive. They’re the modern-day version of the BEA Weblogic and Websphere servers -- the idea’s great, but ultimately it’s middleware.
    But a branded app, with an ecosystem of users, can win. Salesforce is one example, but Quickbase, which inherits Intuit’s Quickbooks SMB, can make a mean GPS app with Tomtom.
    And this is a beachhead for other offerings...
  • There are agnostic clouds -- like Heroku, Amazon AWS, and Google App Engine -- that are for building pretty much anything. But the “platform as a service” clouds know what they want to be. It’s easier to build certain types of app on them.








  • And cable operators could control our content. The set-top box, tied to a PVR, freed us from the tyranny of the O’Clock. We could watch things whenever we wanted.
  • Today, each of us has several screens.
  • And the cost of getting information to those screens is negligible. So slim, in fact, that anyone with a $100 camera can get a 10-minute video, to the entire planet for free which they can watch any time they want.
  • That means the death of one-size-fits-all, watch-when-I-tell-you-to television, and with it the end of traditional broadcast networks.
  • But the fact remains that for most of us, it will make no economic sense to own something we don’t use 90 percent of the time, particularly when that thing is the second most expensive item we’ll buy (after a house.)
  • Augmented reality will be the biggest change to human consciousness of the next decade. We’ll see the world around us as just the "default layer" or "layer zero." We’re adding layers for transportation, friends, restaurants, historical information -- whatever you like. We’ll take them for granted, and when they stop working, it’ll feel like a stroke.

  • Science is how humans try to perceive things better.

  • We try to understand millennia,
  • Life on the head of a pin

  • galaxies.
  • We try to understand patterns that move too slowly—
    like global warming,
  • or the spread of a conflict,
  • or the dissemination of a disease.
  • Technology, applied properly, helps us to perceive changes. It shows us patterns we can’t see; lets us discern shifts beyond our own senses.

  • All of these are about delaying gratification—not doing what’s immediately obvious, and recognizing the bigger picture.
  • The reason we don’t think of personal transportation and broadcast TV as ephemeral is because we’re slaves to our own perception As humans, we have a hard time looking at the big picture with our own senses.
  • We see only a narrow range of the visible spectrum.
  • We hear a small amount of the audible spectrum.
  • We perceive distances from a kilometer to a millimeter.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.
  • Here are my predictions for the next few years, and what you’ll see at conferences, in the press, and in the boardroom.

Transcript

  • 1. Clouds and roofracks The cloud computing market is evolving
  • 2. http://beachpackagingdesign.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/11/04/fluff.jpg
  • 3. “Agile” Pay-as-you- methods SOA Virtualization go licensing and self- architectures service
  • 4. Managed IT BPO hosting outsourcing “Agile” Pay-as-you- methods SOA Virtualization go licensing and self- architectures service
  • 5. Managed IT BPO hosting outsourcing This “cloud” thing “Agile” Pay-as-you- methods SOA Virtualization go licensing and self- architectures service
  • 6. Let’s get some things straight.
  • 7. Three kinds of clouds My mom’s definition The technical definition The business model definition
  • 8. My mom’s definition Cloud
  • 9. My mom’s definition Cloud = Web
  • 10. My mom’s definition Cloud = Web = Internet
  • 11. My mom’s definition Cloud = Web = Internet = Useless
  • 12. http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/04_01/tornadoDM3030a_800x533.jpg
  • 13. The technical definition
  • 14. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mynameisharsha/4092086880/
  • 15. http://www.flickr.com/photos/h4ck/2413562108/
  • 16. http://www.flickr.com/photos/stawarz/3538910787/
  • 17. http://www.flickr.com/photos/swimparallel/3391592144/
  • 18. http://www.flickr.com/photos/genewolf/147722350
  • 19. http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkmoose/
  • 20. http://www.flickr.com/photos/avlxyz/389030408/
  • 21. “Cloudy” tech.
  • 22. That’s the technical definition Virtualization Automation Self-service Elasticitly Usage tracking & billing Service-oriented article
  • 23. The business model definition
  • 24. Clouds are a third-party utility
  • 25. http://www.flickr.com/photos/paulcross/4333070249/
  • 26. The cloud business model Multitenant Pay-as-you-go Third-party No upfront investment Not entitled to an opinion on architecture
  • 27. (I think this is inevitable.)
  • 28. IT server costs
  • 29. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs
  • 30. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs Private cloud costs
  • 31. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs Ping, power, pipe, Private efficiencies cloud costs
  • 32. Idle capacity, lack of automation, etc. IT server costs Ping, power, pipe, Private efficiencies cloud costs Public cloud costs
  • 33. The cloud trifecta
  • 34. 037!HB::D3H!KB::B9 .@9I%" JB@I%" -%%#%%& ""#"%& ""#,%& ""#+%& ""#*%& ""#)%& ""#(%& ""#'%& ""#$%& ./0123 4;;!4<; =>?@0AB =2??2!4<; E4$!F9B5037 G22H5B G22H5B!?D:B G22H5B!?D:B 452678923: .C0/0D .@@E3HD3B ! ! L?D3H!M2957IMD7B!/23D:29D3H!?:0:D23?!K>!N0:AO=26?B Cloud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl
  • 35. '#!/)01#$!"2#34+,#$' <; @< @; !"##"$%&'()$*+'*&'((%&+ ?< ?; >< >; =< =; < ; >@ABA >DABA >CABA ?;ABA =ACA ?ACA <ACA DACA CACA ==ACA =?ACA =<ACA =DACA >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C >;;C Connect times to Amazon Cloudfront from NYC 5%''%,!6%%,($7!0$48#,!9%''%,!,#3'($7: Cloud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl
  • 36. ;<=7>?7;;?7@A@ !+)&98(#C!F707B7 !$++$),-"#.)(%"(-"##,-% ;@O7;H=7?=7@A@ !B:3%*5-8:C!/*%)*5,8'-3 ; <; =;; =<; >;; ><; ?;; ?<; ! !+#2*')8(*'C!.*':851 Cloud "-#7/!.*+! processing is $,(-$.(//01/21345//)**+*$,(#(6$$6#"(-$.( ! -$.(/01/3/789(:;(<79(<=< $D F%1!G%*-*$/! !.$N,&'C!J5*,8'- ! -$.(/01/3/789(:;(<>;(<=< (+!0%*--:!A*0! !P5#'&'(*'C!/*%)*5,8'-3 ! everywhere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loud Encounters, Peter van Eijk, digitalinfrastructures.nl !
  • 37. This isn’t just timesharing all over again
  • 38. This isn’t just timesharing all over again SOA
  • 39. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components SOA from functionality through consistent APIs
  • 40. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service
  • 41. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Virtualization
  • 42. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones
  • 43. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour
  • 44. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Standardization
  • 45. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined configurations
  • 46. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations
  • 47. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations Automation
  • 48. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations Increases the human-to- Automation machine ratio & drives marginal cost towards 0
  • 49. This isn’t just timesharing all over again Insulates components Amazon S3 turns SOA from functionality storage into a through consistent APIs service Reduces minimum order Buy a slice for Virtualization quantity; turns physical things into logical ones just an hour Means users are OK with Standardization a menu of predefined LAMP, Rails, etc. configurations Increases the human-to- Automation 10x enterprise machine ratio & drives marginal cost towards 0 efficiency ratios
  • 50. Inconsistent adoption plans 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  • 51. Inconsistent adoption plans 38% 47% ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in cloud services” next 12 months” 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  • 52. Inconsistent adoption plans 38% 47% ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in cloud services” next 12 months” F5 Networks 82% “In trial, implementation, or use of public clouds” 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  • 53. Inconsistent adoption plans 38% 47% ITI “Unsure about adopting “Won’t consider the cloud in cloud services” next 12 months” F5 Networks 82% “In trial, implementation, or use of public clouds” “Implementing cloud services” 60% 8% CIO.com 29% “Actively researching (cloud on “No interest in the cloud” radar)” 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  • 54. Plenty of choice in the “business” definition of clouds Bare metal Virtualized Hybrid IaaS PaaS Composed services
  • 55. A variety of choices (***Slides from Dell webinar)
  • 56. Private Public
  • 57. Private Public Bare Managed metal hosting
  • 58. Private Public IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  • 59. Private Public PaaS PaaS IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  • 60. Private Public Intranet SaaS PaaS PaaS IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  • 61. Private Public Composed service Intranet SaaS PaaS PaaS IaaS IaaS Bare Managed metal hosting
  • 62. Lots of market confusion
  • 63. http://www.flickr.com/photos/jumphigh/1565967960/
  • 64. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  • 65. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  • 66. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  • 67. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  • 68. 60 45 30 15 0 Stopped to taste Actually bought some 6 jams 24 jams http://sivers.org/jam
  • 69. General population Cancer patients 13% 35% 65% 87% Choose their own treatment Have others choose http://sivers.org/jam
  • 70. Experimentation is easy, too.
  • 71. Expense reports can no longer enforce IT policy. Wiley GAAP 2010: Interpretation and Application of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (By Barry J. Epstein, Ralph Nach, Steven M. Bragg)
  • 72. Airfare DNS Cloud Public transit Important research Hotel
  • 73. http://www.flickr.com/photos/joconnell/
  • 74. Bare metal
  • 75. Bare Virtualization metal
  • 76. Bare Virtualization Public/private metal hybrid models
  • 77. Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS metal hybrid models
  • 78. <script> Hello, world! </script> Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS metal hybrid models
  • 79. <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services
  • 80. <script> Hello, world! </script> Mashup, Bare Virtualization Public/private IaaS PaaS RESTful metal hybrid models services Maximum efficiency is about a spectrum of IT strategies atop adaptive infrastructure.
  • 81. Always on premise Private Compliance- enforced Need to track and audit Legislative Data near local computation
  • 82. Always on Can be done premise anywhere Private Compliance- Testing enforced Training Need to track and Prototyping audit Batch processing Legislative Seasonal load Data near local computation
  • 83. Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  • 84. Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  • 85. Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Policy engine Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  • 86. Virtual machine (infrastructure cloud) Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Policy engine Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  • 87. Compute task (service cloud) Always on Can be done Always in premise anywhere cloud Load/pricing engine Private Partner access Compliance- Testing enforced Proximity to cloud Training services (storage, Policy engine Need to track and Prototyping CDN, etc.) audit Batch processing Massively grid/ Legislative Seasonal load parallel (genomic, Data near local modelling) computation
  • 88. An ecosystem isn’t a nice place Natural selection at work
  • 89. http://www.thule-car-roof-boxes.co.uk/pictures/roof-box-with-roof-rack.jpg
  • 90. Some predictions
  • 91. http://www.flickr.com/photos/sparkys/3434382326/
  • 92. So who’s going to win?
  • 93. Pure infrastructure: Who’s got best economies of scale?
  • 94. Recoding: Who’s got developer mindshare?
  • 95. Pure Services: Who’s got network effects? feed.API (facebook) > feed.api (friendster)
  • 96. PaaS: Who’s got brand and users?
  • 97. PaaS: Who’s got brand and users?
  • 98. Does a PaaS need a flavor? Ning wants to be a social network Webex wants to collaborate Salesforce wants to be a CRM Quickbase wants to be SMB
  • 99. The big picture A layered society
  • 100. http://www.bigpicturesmallworld.com/funstuff/bigtime.shtml
  • 101. Span of power Access Technology Money Nobility Media Theocracy Land holdings Monarchy Religion & Genetics culture
  • 102. http://www.nytimes.com/images/blogs/tvdecoder/posts/1107/tivo-box.jpg
  • 103. http://www.flickr.com/photos/viewfrom52/2263683446/
  • 104. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/07/31/business/20080801-metrics-graphic.html
  • 105. Private layers (friends, notes) Opt-in layers (ads, paid content) Shared layers (maps, guides) The real world LAYER ZERO
  • 106. Complexity of machines Future Tech 1 Internet Micro- processor Internal combustion Steam engine engine Ramp Pulley
  • 107. http://www.atclabs.com/Photos/mite.jpg
  • 108. http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/3575/lawdomeicecore6sy.jpg
  • 109. http://www.uml.edu/wuml/podcast/media/nanotechnology-kd-001.jpg
  • 110. http://thetruthorthefight.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/hubble-eagle-nebula-wide-field-04086y.jpg
  • 111. http://www.nar.ucar.edu/2008/ESSL/sp1/images/sp1_01_cgd_1.jpg
  • 112. http://whiteafrican.com/ wp-content/uploads/ 2008/05/ united_for_africa-499x3 83.png
  • 113. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_spread_of_H5N1_map_%28August_13%29.PNG
  • 114. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/pacificnw/2003/1221/cover_graphic.html
  • 115. Data generated by humanity Web of sensors Web of humans Web of documents Printing press Scribes Song Poem
  • 116. See the big picture.
  • 117. http://www.gosfordhobbies.com.au/shop/images/P/lge-630.jpg
  • 118. http://www.optics.arizona.edu/Nofziger/UNVR195a/Day1/EMspectrum1.jpg
  • 119. http://akamaipix.crutchfield.com/ca/reviews/20030722/speaker_freq.jpg
  • 120. http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/kashmir_scale_1997.jpg
  • 121. 100 75 50 25 0 2008 2009 http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 122. 100 75 50 Taxonomies & layers 25 0 2008 2009 What is the cloud? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 123. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Taxonomies business & layers cases 25 0 2008 2009 What is Why the cloud? should I use it? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 124. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies business best & layers cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 What is Why How do I the cloud? should I use it? use it? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 125. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies Business business best & layers strategy cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 What is Why How do I What new the cloud? should I use it? things are use it? possible? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 126. 100 75 50 ROI, TCO, Designs & Taxonomies Business Policy & business best & layers strategy standards cases practices 25 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 What is Why How do I What new What must the cloud? should I use it? things are I still run use it? possible? in-house? http://developer.amazonwebservices.com/connect/thread.jspa?messageID=150461 http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=%22Cloud%20computing%22&cmpt=q
  • 127. Thanks! @acroll alistair@bitcurrent.com www.human20.com www.rentedmetal.com