IS LONG TRADE DEFICIENCY SUSTAINABLE

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IS LONG TRADE DEFICIENCY SUSTAINABLE

  1. 1. Is A Large Trade Deficiency Sustainable?
  2. 2. What Is Deficit? A deficit occurs when the country's imports is larger than the value of its exports.
  3. 3. how Deficiency occurs <ul><li>Strong Consumer Demand :- real household spending has grown more quickly than the domestic economy can expand. </li></ul><ul><li>Strong Exchange Rate of Currency:- Increasing exchange rate of internal currency creates an expenditure-switching effect away from domestically produced output. </li></ul><ul><li>Comparative Advantage in the International Economy: - for example the rapid growth of China as a source of exports of household goods and other countries in South-east Asia who have a cost advantage in exporting manufactured products. </li></ul><ul><li>Substitution Effect:- The availability of imports from other countries at a relatively lower price </li></ul><ul><li>Non-price Competitiveness Factors:- non-price competitiveness factors such as design and product quality are now more important for trade than merely price alone. </li></ul><ul><li>The Weakness of the Global Economy. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Does a current account deficit really matter? <ul><li>The UK has run large current account deficits in recent years with barely any effect on the overall performance of the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>The United States economy is also experiencing a huge trade deficit at the moment. </li></ul><ul><li>What are the implications of this? </li></ul>
  5. 5. Reasons to Worry <ul><li>Structural weakness:- loss of competitiveness in overseas markets, insufficient investment in new capital or a shift in comparative advantage towards other countries. </li></ul><ul><li>An unbalanced economy:- A large deficit in trade is a sign of an ‘unbalanced economy’ typically the consequences of a very high level of consumer spending contrasted with a weaker industrial sector. </li></ul>
  6. 6. CONTD… <ul><li>Depreciation:- In the long term, a current account deficit can cause a depreciation of the exchange rate which reduces living standards (imports are more expensive). </li></ul><ul><li>Potential loss of output and employment :- Arising from falling production in exports. </li></ul><ul><li>Potential problems in financing a current account deficit:- Countries can’t always rely on inflows of financial capital an economy to finance a deficit. </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>“ The consequences of these persistent and massive trade deficits include not only failed businesses, displaced workers, lower real wages and rising inequality, but also permanent devastation of our communities.” </li></ul><ul><li> -- Democratic congressional leaders. January, 2009. letter to U.S. President . </li></ul>Nancy Pelosi House Speaker The Trade Deficit that Ate America
  8. 8. Is the trade deficit sustainable? <ul><li>“ Net international investment position” </li></ul><ul><li>America a “debtor nation” since mid-1980s—now $2.5 trillion. </li></ul><ul><li>Foreigners own $13.6 trillion in U.S. assets, Americans own $11.1 trillion in assets abroad at end of 2005. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Foreign debt” 20 percent of GDP, < 5 percent of national wealth. </li></ul><ul><li>In 2006, Americans earned $622 billion on investments abroad, paid $629 billion on foreign investments in U.S. </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. paid net -$7 billion on income. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Don’t Worry!!! Its Globalisation and Financial Liberalization <ul><li>Inward Investment:- If a current account deficit is financed from long term capital inflows then this can be beneficial for the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Devaluation:- If the deficit gets too large it will cause a devaluation which helps to reduce the deficit. </li></ul><ul><li>Partial auto-correction:- If some of the deficit is due to very strong consumer demand, the deficit will automatically partially-self correct when the economic cycle turns and there is a slowdown in spending. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Contd… <ul><li>Investment and the supply-side :- Some of the deficit may be due to increased imports of new capital and technology which will have a beneficial effect on productivity and competitiveness of producers in home and overseas markets. </li></ul><ul><li>Capital inflows balance the books :- Providing a country has a stable economy and credible economic policies, it should be possible for the current account deficit to be financed by inflows of capital without the need for a sharp jump in interest rates. </li></ul><ul><li>For example, the UK has run an average annual current account deficit of £10 billion from 1992-2004 and yet the economy has also enjoyed one of the longest sustained periods of growth and falling unemployment during that time. </li></ul>
  11. 11. The chart above shows that the UK has run a current account deficit in each year since 1998 but that the size of the deficit expressed as a percentage of national income (GDP) has actually been falling in the last three years – it is now less than 2% of GDP – a manageable level with few obvious painful consequences. In contrast the US economy is operating with a current account deficit on an enormous scale as the US government is facing up to huge Current account and budget deficit problems.
  12. 12. 1.DIVYAGYAN-H15 2. BISWAJIT GHOSH-H12 3.GURPREET KOUR BALI-H18 4.ANUP SAINI-H09 5.AMLAN GOGOI-H05 6.ANJALI SINGH-H07 Mercantilist mindset : “Exports good, imports bad.” © 2009 AIMS PGPM-H02

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