Pubtrack Higher Education 2014 with Carl Kulo, US Director of Research for Nielsen Book
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Pubtrack Higher Education 2014 with Carl Kulo, US Director of Research for Nielsen Book

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Carl Kulo examines trends in the higher ed publishing sector as revealed by the research contained in the newest volume of Pubtrack Higher Ed.

Carl Kulo examines trends in the higher ed publishing sector as revealed by the research contained in the newest volume of Pubtrack Higher Ed.

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  • Welcome all. Thanks to Nadine for a great presentation on the student data.
  • The total Higher Ed Textbook market remains strong, despite some fall-off from 2012.
  • Amazing consistency over the last 3 academic years. The top 5 represent about 80% of value! Pearson maintains a strong lead, with about one-third of all sales of course materials.
  • Amazing consistency among the top disciplines!
  • Here we highlight the disciplines where we have seen the most growth….and the most decline since AY2012.
  • And here are the top courses in terms of dollar sales of course materials…English comp is really on top if you count both parts of the course.
  • For the next few slides, we wanted to show how students are getting their course materials overall. This data comes from our monthly book tracker and shows that students continue to go to Amazon for their textbooks.
  • And similarly, we are seeing the continued growth of online purchase at the expense of in-store
  • As we have seen we will see, the vast majority of college students are still getting textbooks in print, and digital only textbooks are still in single digits. As we saw in the BISG student data, and as will see in subsequent slides, there is more to the market than the college textbook…that in fact the learning resources that students are acquiring are in fact more like learning systems, with the textbook as only one component.
  • These are courses where students either hang on to their books (for reference in future courses, and reduce supply) and/or where students are buying the newest bundle or custom package.
  • These represent those courses where students don’t keep their books as often, and where they can most likely get buy without it.
  • So why do we think new units and dollars are remaining so high, and actually growing? We believe it is the result of growing custom and bundled packages. Publishers appear to becoming effective at moving students away from single print textbooks to course “systems” that are targeted to the needs of individual schools. These are often intergrated “solutions”, containing print and digital assets, learning and assessment and other resources. Not just a print textbook!
  • Show pricing strategy of two titles by one Publisher. Pearson took an aggressive custom publishing strategy with Tro and generated over $3 million in sales
  • We did a special analysis for a client to understand textbook sell through. So we looked at total units in intro courses and found that only a minority of students were acquiring the new textbook (and many weren’t getting anything at all)
  • But when we looked at a course where that publisher had a “custom” strategy, we see that it did indeed drive higher levels of “sell through”, especially of new books! Presumably, students were more compelled to get the course materials that were customized to the class.
  • Perhaps one of the reasons that digital has not taken off is that the price benefit is not all that different from what can be bought in print (especially used)
  • From our data, only one course actually has double digit ebook percentages.

Transcript

  • 1. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. THE U.S. COLLEGE TEXTBOOK MARKET AN OVERVIEW OF THE NIELSEN PUBTRACK HIGHER ED SYSTEM 1
  • 2. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. PubTrack Higher Ed: What is it? • The “Go-To” source for data about U.S. College Course material “sell through” and “adoption”. •Used by nearly 100 clients 2
  • 3. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. WHAT IT IS…. • Nationally representative sample of trends through campus bookstores • Primarily supplied by college bookstores (in-store + online) • Tied to a school (via Carnegie Classifications/FICE codes) • Online retailers not included (can’t be tied to schools) • Data on other alternate sources (e.g., student swaps, etc) not included 3
  • 4. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Where does the data come from? Course material P-O-S Tracks new and used Point-of-Sale Data on Course Materials from 4yr, 2-yr, and ForProfit schools Sample represents ~65% (FTE) of the US Higher Ed market Data collected from over 3,630 bookstores, & online etailers tied to over 2,500 schools Adoption Demand Course Book in Use and Instructor data collected from college registrars office Pre-order wholesaler data from over 4.200 stores and etailers 4
  • 5. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. WE EXTRAPOLATE! • Strenuous efforts by internal and third party experts • Eternal Data Sources (BookStats, BISG Student Attitudes…, Carnegie etc.) • Increased accuracy of projected sales • Accounts for representation of missing channel’s volume (Amazon and other non-bookstore etailers) 5
  • 6. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. HOW IS THIS INCORPORATED INTO PT-HE TOOLSET?  Available for Academic Year/Full Year only  Available on Course Summary & Publisher/Discipline Reports  Individual ISBN data not extrapolated 6
  • 7. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. PubTrack HE Data Sources: . Campus Book Stores o Discipline level o ISBN tagging o Returns o Sell-out o B&N o Follett o Nebraska Books o ~ 1,500 Independent campus stores Online Book Stores Publisher Files o B&NCollege.com o MBS Direct o eCampus.com PubTrack Higher Education o Professor Names o Course codes o Carnegie Codes Course & Department Information o Apollo Group-Axia College o Apollo Group-Univ. of Phoenix o Laureate Education o Corinthian College, Inc. o ITT o DeVry Wholesalers Demand Data o MBS o Follett Demand For-Profit Institutions 7
  • 8. 8 Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  • 9. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. THE “BIG PICTURE” . What are US college students buying for their courses? 9
  • 10. US College Textbook Market (Est. Value) Millions Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. US LONG TERM TRENDS 14,000 12,000 2009 10,000 $10,164 $10,719 2010 $11,471 $12,513 $11,610 8,000 6,000 4,000 Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 2,000 0 2011 2012 2013 Source: Nielsen PubTrack Higher Ed 10
  • 11. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. THE MAJOR PLAYERS STAY CONSTANT Market Share of Top HE Publishers (Est. Value) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 34% 34% 33% 21% 21% 21% 16% 15% 5% 4% 2011 15% 5% 4% 5% 4% 2012 Pearson Higher Education Cengage Learning Macmillan Publishing, Inc 2013 McGraw-Hill, Inc. John Wiley & Sons Source: Nielsen PubTrack Higher Ed 11
  • 12. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. THE TOP DISCIPLINES STAY CONSTANT TOO Market Share of Top HE Disciplines (Est. Value) 14% 12% 12% 10% 8% 9% 9% 9% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 13% 12% 4% 2% 0% 2011 Mathematics English 2012 Biological Sciences Psychology 2013 Computers & Information Systems Source: Nielsen PubTrack Higher Ed 12
  • 13. Up or Down? Growth Decline Discipline Discipline ESL Marketing Vo-Tech Legal Studies Interdisciplinary Studies Geography Linguistics Chemistry Library Information Science Mathematics Architecture
  • 14. Top Selling Courses 2013 Discipline: Course Psychology: Introductory Foreign Languages and Literature: Spanish: Language: Elementary Biological Sciences: Anatomy and Physiology: Introductory: Two Term Computers & Information Systems: Applications: Office Suites Chemistry: Introductory: General: General Mathematics: Software Biological Sciences: Introductory: Non-Majors English: Composition: Introductory: Rhetoric English: Composition: Introductory: Handbooks: Complete Interdisciplinary Studies: Orientation to College USD (mil) $285,043 $234,377 $208,648 $196,961 $174,726 $161,238 $159,473 $151,556 $141,958 $132,086 14
  • 15. Students Seek Alternative Retail Sources (B&C) 45% 40% 35% 30% Amazon.com 25% eBay/Half.com 20% other ecommerce 15% College bookstore 10% 5% 0% AY 2010 AY 2011 Source: Nielsen Books & Consumers AY 2012 AY 2013 15
  • 16. Trends in how students purchase their books: Source: Nielsen Books & Consumer 60% 50% 40% In Store (in person) 30% Online app/device download 20% other 10% 0% AY 2010 AY 2011 AY 2012 AY 2013 16
  • 17. DIGITAL GROWTH IMPACTS PAPERBACK Format 80% 70% 68% 66% 62% Paperback 60% 60% Hardcover Digital textbook 50% 40% 30% 27% 25% 25% 25% 20% 10% 1% 3% 6% 8% 0% AY 2010 AY 2011 AY 2012 AY 2013 17
  • 18. New vs. Used 18
  • 19. Even as digital grows 100% Over 70% new units 90% 80% 70% 66% 60% 64% 66% 67% 67% 68% 71% 50% % new units 40% % used units 30% 20% 34% 36% 35% 33% 33% 32% 29% AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 AY 13 10% 0% 19
  • 20. And New $ Have Even Greater Share 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 72% 69% 70% 72% 72% 77% 75% 50% New Dollars 40% Used Dollars 30% 20% 10% 28% 31% 30% 28% 28% 24% 26% AY 07 AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 AY 13 0% 20
  • 21. The “Keepers”: Lowest Used Book Rates % used Engineering Computer Training & Certification Food Science Computers & Information Systems Mathematics Biological Sciences Accounting Foreign Languages and Literature Chemistry ESL 22% 21% 21% 19% 18% 17% 16% 14% 13% 9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 21
  • 22. Used Book Rates 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% 39% 48% 47% 47% 47% 46% 46% 45% 44% 43% 43% 22
  • 23. New Textbook Prices Rising, but Used is holding steady! $100.00 $90.00 $82.17 $80.00 $73.85 $70.00 $77.25 $69.95 $64.31 $60.00 $50.00 $85.73 $56.98 $58.89 $60.47 $60.69 $62.94 avg new price $50.74 avg used price $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $AY 08 AY 09 AY 10 AY 11 AY 12 AY 13 23 23
  • 24. Bundles & Custom 24
  • 25. Biggest shift: towards more custom versions 100% 90% 7% 5% 7% 5% Supplements 80% 70% 60% 67% 58% 61% 50% 50% Package/Bundle 40% 20% 30% 20% 10% 0% Print 12% 13% Digital 13% 19% 18% 17% 23% AY 12 $ AY 13 $ Custom 0 AY 12 units AY 13 units . 25
  • 26. Pricing Comparison of 2 Gen Chem texts Brown/LeMay (12E – 2012) Tro (2E – 2010) Used New Used New Print Book $ 113.59 $ 137.52 $ 109.23 $ 152.92 Custom versions $ 131.80 $ 168.05 $ 123.60 $ 167.67 Packages/Bundles $ 141.21 $ 151.52 ebook $ 73.68 $ 91.61 Custom Tro generated over $3Million in value! 26
  • 27. Insert Image Here Sell through Analysis….. • What percent of students enrolled actually buy the required textbook? • Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” in 4 intro courses 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 4% 4% 50% 20% 40% 2% 3% 10% 30% 20% used rent 40% 10% 3% 3% 9% 5% 4% 16% new rent used new 29% 32% 28% Economics Mathematics Psychology 0% English 27
  • 28. Insert Image Here Sell through….. What if it’s custom? • Data shows one large publisher’s “sell-through” of custom product in same 4 courses 100% 90% 1% 80% 12% 70% 60% 1% 6% 50% 40% 0% 7% 1% 13% new rent used 73% new 30% 50% 20% used rent 50% 44% Economics Mathematics Psychology 10% 0% English 28
  • 29. Focus on Digital 29
  • 30. Pricing of Digital •Overall average textbook price: $64 (New & Used – flat from 2011) •Overall average digital textbook price: $61 (up from $56 in 2011) 30
  • 31. Wide Array of ‘e’ Top 5 Disciplines with Highest e-Textbook Rates AY 2013 Computers & Information Systems Foreign Languages and Literature Units Up from 5% in AY 12 20.8% 7.6% Business Health & Health Related Professions 6.0% Chemistry 5.8% 5.8% 31
  • 32. Rentals 32
  • 33. Rental growth especially strong for Used! Term New Rental Units New Rental Used Rental Sales (Millions) Units Used Rental Sales (Millions) AY 11 1,482,881 69 1,642,284 63 AY 12 3,217,487 146 4,076,895 140 AY 13 Growth from AY12 4,276,910 194 7,031,355 266 33% 33% 72% 90% Note: Rentals as sold through PT-HE Data Suppliers: Not including Chegg 33
  • 34. Top Disciplines for Rentals: Rank Discipline 1 English 2 Psychology 3 Mathematics 4 History 5 Biological Sciences 34
  • 35. ADOPTION AND DEMAND 35 Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  • 36. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. TARGET PROFESSORS FOR PROSPECTS/REVIEWS? RUN ADOPTION REPORT 36
  • 37. 37 Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
  • 38. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. DEMAND: FUTURE ADOPTIONS 38
  • 39. Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. LIST OF SCHOOLS ADOPTING 39
  • 40. Conclusions: • Higher Ed Course Material Sales remain strong • Bundling and Customization is working – driving strong sales • Stand-alone Digital textbooks remain a small part of the market, but critical as components of overall package • Rentals, especially used, are growing strong! • Still ways to make $$ in this market. 40
  • 41. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary. 41