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BookExpo America -- Book Industry TRENDS 2009
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BookExpo America -- Book Industry TRENDS 2009

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For more than thirty years, Book Industry TRENDS has been the publishing industry's source for comprehensive statistical information about the U.S. book market. The 2009 edition will be published by …

For more than thirty years, Book Industry TRENDS has been the publishing industry's source for comprehensive statistical information about the U.S. book market. The 2009 edition will be published by the Book Industry Study Group in July 2009.

This presentation provide a first look at the main unit and dollar sales figures in all the major U.S. book categories from TRENDS 2009, as well as highlights the important ways in which overall data analysis was strengthened for the 2009 edition.

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  • 1. Book Industry TRENDS 2009 BookExpo America 2009 Working to create a more informed, efficient and empowered book industry
  • 2. Agenda
    • Introduction
    • Methodology and Sources of Data
    • Key Highlights and Findings
    • Questions and Answers
  • 3.
    • Michael Healy
    • Executive Director, Book Industry Study Group, Inc.
    Introduction
  • 4.
    • The book industry’s leading trade association for policy, standards and research
    • Develops and maintains standards and best practices that support effective communications between all parts of the supply chain
    • Conducts research and gathers data on issues affecting the whole book industry
    About BISG
  • 5. BISG’s mission
    • Working to create a more
    • informed, empowered and efficient
    • book industry.
  • 6. How we accomplish our mission
    • Providing a meeting point for the book industry
      • Policy development
      • Best working practices
      • Consensus on industry issues
    • Developing and maintaining standards
    • Researching key issues affecting the industry
  • 7. Research and publications
  • 8. Book Industry TRENDS 2009
    • The only complete view of today’s book-publishing industry
    • Detailed tables, charts and analysis
    • An up-to-date report that covers the entire industry, including the growing segment of small to mid-size publishers and top tier players
  • 9. TRENDS 2009: availability and pricing
    • Available July 2009
    • Will be published in printed and electronic editions
    • Single-use and multi-use PDFs will be available
    • Free to most categories of BISG members
  • 10.
    • The only worldwide research and advisory firm serving the media and information industry
      • Global team of 50+
      • Track publishing segments in the US, Europe and Asia
      • Provide fact-based analysis of markets, companies, trends, technology
      • Deliver actionable advice to CEOs and their teams in 300+ firms
      • Offer subscription, membership and custom consulting services
    About Outsell
  • 11.
    • Michael Healy: Book Industry Study Group
    • Leigh Watson Healy: Outsell, Inc.
    Methodology and Sources of Data
  • 12. TRENDS 2009 Objectives
    • Provide comprehensive data on publishers’ sales
    • Fully integrate small, medium and large publisher sales estimates in one data set
    • Analyze book sales by updated category, channel and format definitions
    • Deliver insight into book sales performance and projections
  • 13. Research Methodology
    • Identify book publishing universe
    • Collect sales data from publishers via online survey
    • Interview large and midsize publishers
    • Compile and analyze resulting data
    • Incorporate secondary data sources, Outsell industry data and knowledge, and expert network insight
    • Create projections and relate to past TRENDS data at various levels
  • 14. Book Publishing Universe
    • From Bowker database:
      • 130,477 active publishers in 2008
      • Number of active publishers increased 27%
    • Total number of publishers continues to increase
    • Virtually all of this increase occurs in the under-$50M/year small-publisher category
  • 15. Book Publishing’s Long Tail $12.7 Billion $27.6 Billion
  • 16.
    • Integrated view of long-tail and large publishers’ sales
    • Analyzed survey data by expanded key segments
      • Format
      • Category
      • Channel
      • Foreign vs. domestic
      • Frontlist/backlist
    • Additional analysis to ensure consistency with past TRENDS estimates
    Fully Integrated Projections
  • 17.
    • Leigh Watson Healy, Chief Analyst
    • Outsell, Inc.
    Book Industry Trends
  • 18. Book Publishing $40.3 Billion in 2008
  • 19. Growth Leaders and Laggards, 2008 Book Industry Growth – 1% 1%
  • 20. Projected Growth, 2008-2010 Book Industry Growth – 2.1% CAGR 2.1% CAGR
  • 21. All Book Publishing Segments 39,936 40,321 41,040 42,028 3,127 3,079 3,101 3,169 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 -1.5% 2008 to2009 0.7% 2009 to 2010 2.2% CAGR 2007-2010 0.4% CAGR 2008-2010 1.5% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 1.0% 2008 to 2009 1.8% 2009 to 2010 2.4% CAGR 2007-2010 1.7% CAGR 2008-2010 2.1%
  • 22. Trade Book Publishing 15,048 14,734 14,812 15,135 2,282 2,238 2,248 2,294 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 -1.9% 2008 to 2009 0.5% 2009 to 2010 2.0% CAGR 2007-2010 0.2% CAGR 2008-2010 1.3% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 -2.1% 2008 to 2009 0.5% 2009 to 2010 2.2% CAGR 2007-2010 0.2% CAGR 2008-2010 1.4%
  • 23. Adult Trade 11,392 11,125 11,214 11,483 1,381 1,348 1,361 1,393 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 -2.3% 2008 to 2009 0.9% 2009 to 2010 2.4% CAGR 2007-2010 0.3% CAGR 2008-2010 1.7% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 -2.3% 2008 to 2009 0.8% 2009 to 2010 2.4% CAGR 2007-2010 0.3% CAGR 2008-2010 1.6%
  • 24. Juvenile Trade 3,657 3,609 3,598 3,652 901 889 888 901 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 -1.3% 2008 to 2009 -0.2% 2009 to 2010 1.5% CAGR 2007-2010 0.0% CAGR 2008-2010 0.7% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 -1.3% 2008 to 2009 -0.3% 2009 to 2010 1.5% CAGR 2007-2010 0.0% CAGR 2008-2010 0.6%
  • 25. Religious Publishing 2,575 2,318 2,225 2,296 275 247 239 247 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 -10.0% 2008 to 2009 -3.2% 2009 to 2010 3.2% CAGR 2007-2010 -3.5% CAGR 2008-2010 0.0% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 -10.0% 2008 to 2009 -4.0% 2009 to 2010 -3.2% CAGR 2007-2010 -3.8% CAGR 2008-2010 -0.5%
  • 26. Professional Publishing 8,358 8,696 8,961 9,116 246 256 265 269 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 4.0% 2008 to 2009 3.4% 2009 to 2010 1.7% CAGR 2007-2010 3.0% CAGR 2008-2010 2.5% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 4.0% 2008 to 2009 3.0% 2009 to 2010 1.7% CAGR 2007-2010 2.9% CAGR 2008-2010 2.4%
  • 27. Scholarly Publishing 1,375 1,428 1,446 1,470 72 75 76 77 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 3.9% 2008 to 2009 1.7% 2009 to 2010 1.7% CAGR 2007-2010 2.4% CAGR 2008-2010 1.7% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 3.9% 2008 to 2009 1.3% 2009 to 2010 1.7% CAGR 2007-2010 2.3% CAGR 2008-2010 1.5%
  • 28. Elhi Publishing 7,056 7,373 7,606 7,827 175 182 189 194 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 4.2% 2008 to 2009 3.5% 2009 to 2010 2.9% CAGR 2007-2010 3.5% CAGR 2008-2010 3.2% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 4.5% 2008 to 2009 3.2% 2009 to 2010 2.9% CAGR 2007-2010 3.5% CAGR 2008-2010 3.0%
  • 29. College Publishing 5,524 5,772 5,990 6,184 78 81 84 87 Publishers’ Net Dollar Sales ($M) 2007 to 2008 4.5% 2008 to 2009 4.2% 2009 to 2010 3.2% CAGR 2007-2010 4.0% CAGR 2008-2010 3.7% Publishers’ Unit Sales (M) 2007 to 2008 4.5% 2008 to 2009 3.8% 2009 to 2010 3.2% CAGR 2007-2010 3.8% CAGR 2008-2010 3.5%
  • 30.
    • 2008 sales data confirms “flat is the new up”
    • Book publishing revenues will grow 1.8% in 2009
    • Sector performance will vary in 2009
      • Religious – decline less steep in 2009
      • Adult & juvenile trade – flat
      • Scholarly – slight growth
      • Professional, elhi and college – growth, but slowing
    • All sectors will grow – moderately – in 2010
    Conclusions
  • 31.
    • Publishing leaders expect return to growth in 2010
    • Recession as opportunity to become stronger:
      • Act on organization, process and business model changes
      • Develop strategic marketing muscle
      • Keep customers at the core
      • Engage the social network for editorial and marketing
      • Understand how digital evolution is changing markets
    • Essentials: innovation and focus on execution
    Looking Ahead
  • 32. Questions? Michael Healy [email_address] Leigh Watson Healy [email_address]