9- Making Information Pay 2009 -- THOMPSON, DAVE (Random House)

Using data. David Thompson MIP May 2009

Using Nielsen Bookscan and Bowker PubTrack Consumer internally. No more myths, half-truths and distortions. Well, okay they aren’t all going away, but at least it’s a start… 2

Overall, the US book market is down 1.2% in 2009 US % change in units sold Total Market -1.2% -3.4%* Category • Adult -5.1% -Adult Fiction +0.5% -Adult Non-Fiction -8.7% • Juvenile +12.8% +2.9%* Format (adult only) • Hardcover -6.5% • Trade Paperback -6.4% • Mass Market +0.2% * Excluding all Stephenie Meyer titles 3 Source: Nielsen BookScan website

Book Awareness for Adult Books Purchased in 2008 Harper Hachette Harlequin Macmillian Penguin RH S&S Advertisement 10.5% 12.8% 4.4% 9.0% 10.9% 8.4% 9.3% ...Magazine ad 2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 2.8% 0.8% 0.6% ...Newspaper ad 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% ...TV/Radio ad 1.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% ...Online/Internet ad 4.3% 6.3% 2.0% 5.7% 5.0% 4.1% 4.7% ...Received email from retailer 1.8% 2.8% 1.4% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% Best seller list 5.6% 8.6% 1.5% 3.9% 5.5% 4.4% 5.2% Book fair 1.1% 1.3% 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.4% Book review (not online) 2.7% 3.7% 1.0% 2.2% 3.4% 3.8% 3.7% Online: book review 5.9% 4.9% 1.3% 7.7% 6.2% 7.5% 5.5% Online: forums, blogs, Google 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.9% 0.7% 1.4% 1.1% Online: author's personal website 5.3% 3.4% 4.5% 3.3% 4.3% 3.6% 3.8% Online: publisher's website 0.5% 0.5% 7.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.8% Direct mail/catalog 3.4% 5.1% 21.5% 5.5% 3.8% 4.2% 4.9% Recommendation from a friend 12.6% 8.2% 5.7% 9.9% 10.4% 12.1% 11.5% Recipient asked for item 2.6% 2.1% 1.5% 3.6% 3.2% 3.1% 4.1% Saw/heard author on radio/TV 3.8% 1.9% 0.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.9% 4.6% Saw/heard author in person 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% School materials 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% Store display 41.7% 45.7% 50.1% 46.0% 45.4% 44.9% 43.1% Source: Bowker PubTrack Consumer 4

Book Awareness - Adult Books Purchased in 2008 Top 6 Trade Publishers, Source: PubTrack Consumer Advertisement 10.2% Best seller list 4.0% Book fair 1.1% Book review (not online) 3.2% Direct mail/catalog 6.6% Online: author's personal website 3.5% Online: book review 6.7% Online: forums, blogs, Google, Yahoo 1.5% Online: publisher's website 1.2% Recipient asked for item 3.4% Recommendation from a friend 9.7% Saw/heard author in person 0.6% Saw/heard author on radio/TV 2.1% School materials 1.8% Store display 44.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 5

Book Awareness - Advertisement Breakdown ...Received email from 2.1% retailer ...Online/Internet ad 5.4% ...TV/Radio ad 0.9% ...Newspaper ad 0.6% ...Magazine ad 1.2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 6

Book Awareness - Adult Books 2008, All Online Combined Best seller list 4.0% Book fair 1.1% Book review (not online) 3.2% Direct mail/catalog 6.6% Magazine ad 1.2% Newspaper ad 0.6% Online Total 18.2% Recipient asked for item 3.4% Recommendation from a friend 9.7% Saw/heard author in person 0.6% Saw/heard author on radio/TV 2.1% School materials 1.8% Store display 44.4% TV/Radio ad 0.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 7

Using data externally •A Price Club wanted to know when to carry Cookbooks. •A Large Grocery Chain wanted to carry more Hardcovers. •A Price Club wanted to drop mass market paperbacks. 8

Bookscan and seasonality 9

4 year average - Bookscan weekly POS for COOKBOOKS 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1/7 2/4 3/4 4/1 7/8 8/5 9/2 1/21 2/18 3/18 4/15 4/29 5/13 5/27 6/10 6/24 7/22 8/19 9/16 9/30 12/9 10/14 10/28 11/11 11/25 12/23 10

100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 0 1/7 1/14 1/21 1/28 2/4 2/11 2/18 2/25 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 excludes 4th quarter 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 4 year average - Bookscan weekly POS for COOKBOOKS 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 11 9/30

Grocery Stores and Books •“Shopping for other items anyway.” •“Convenient location.” 12

Book Awareness - Adult Books purchased at Grocery Stores Source: Bowker PubTrack Consumer Best seller list 5.5% Book fair 0.2% Book review (not online) 1.8% Direct mail/catalog 0.4% 2.3% Magazine ad 0.6% Newspaper ad 2.3% Online Total Recipient asked for item 1.0% Recommendation from a friend 5.5% Saw/heard author in person 0.1% Saw/heard author on radio/TV 0.6% 0.1% School materials 78.5% Store display 1.3% TV/Radio ad 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 13

Adult Books Purchased at Grocery Stores • 75% were purchased by women • 83% were impulse purchases • 83% were fiction Source: Bowker PubTrack Consumer 14

Mass Market demographics • 72% were purchased by women • 70% were impulse purchases • @ 80% were fiction Source: Bowker PubTrack Consumer 15

Adult Books Purchased in Bookscan Non-Traditional Accounts* Source: Nielsen Bookscan * = Kroger, Shopko, HEB, Stop & Shop, etc 90% 84% 83% 80% Hardcover Paperback 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17% 16% 20% 10% 0% 2008 2009 YTD 16

Bookscan Info for a Grocery Chain Non-Trad Channel 2008 YTD 2009 YTD cng Adult Fiction HC 378 336 -11.1% Adult Fiction MM 2,176 2,163 -0.6% Adult Fiction TR 215 211 -1.9% Non Trad Fiction 2,769 2,710 -2.1% Adult NF HC 218 144 -33.9% Adult NF MM 111 86 -22.5% Adult NF TR 327 315 -3.7% Non Trad NF 656 545 -16.9% 17

Price Clubs and Mass Market paperbacks •“Shopping for other items anyway.” •“Price.” 18

Mass Market Books Purchased by Income Range Source: Bowker PubTrack Consumer 40% 34% 35% 30% 60% 25% 20% 18% 14% 15% 12% 11% 11% 10% 5% 0% <$25,000 $25,000 - $35,000 - $50,000 - $75,000 - $100,000+ $34,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 19

Retail Link Data The Market Basket for a Mass Market Paperback has on average: •Hardcovers in 0% of baskets. •Trade Paperbacks in 0% of baskets. •Other MM paperbacks in @ 40% of baskets. 20

Retail Link Data •THE YANKEE YEARS average market basket was $73, and had other books in less than 1% of the baskets. •HIDE by Lisa Gardner in mass market – average market basket was $79 and had other mass market books in 47% of the baskets. 21

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9- Making Information Pay 2009 -- THOMPSON, DAVE (Random House)

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9- Making Information Pay 2009 -- THOMPSON, DAVE (Random House) — Presentation Transcript