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Presentation by Sir Mark Walport at the Foundation for Science and Technology discussion on 'Cities of the future – science, innovation and city management', June 2013

Presentation by Sir Mark Walport at the Foundation for Science and Technology discussion on 'Cities of the future – science, innovation and city management', June 2013

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  • 1. Foresight ProjectFuture of CitiesSir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
  • 2. 2 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013“…an immense laboratory of trial and error, failure and success…”Jane JacobsThe death and life of great American citiesSue Waters / CC BY-SA 2.0©Amanda Orson
  • 3. 3 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013The Changing Urban World1950UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 4. 4 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 20131980UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)The Changing Urban WorldThis graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 5. 5 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013The Changing Urban WorldThe Changing Urban World2010UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 6. 6 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013The Changing Urban World2030UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 7. 7 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013The Changing Urban World2050UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 8. 8 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 20131950And looking closer at Europe..UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 9. 9 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 20131980And looking closer at Europe..UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 10. 10 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 20132010And looking closer at Europe..UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 11. 11 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 20132030And looking closer at Europe..UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 12. 12 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 20132050And looking closer at Europe..UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
  • 13. What is a City?Physical components of cities include:• Physical boundaries• Population size• Hinterland• Natural infrastructure• Built infrastructure• Transport links to other cities &countries13 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013Source: Arcaute, E., Ferguson, P. et alarXiv:1301.1674 [physics.soc-ph]Data from Census 2001
  • 14. 14 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013Cities emerge from the demand forpopulations to interact and are aboutpeople:• Poverty and wealth• Culture and diversity• Social inclusion/exclusion• Crime• Demographics, e.g., ageing population• Overlapping systems of governance• Legal designationMore than infrastructureJulian Mason / CC BY 2.0Getty ImagesGene Hunt / CC BY 2.0iStockphoto
  • 15. Current Trends in the UK15 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013London is outperforming the restof the UK economy.Our largest cities lag behindLondon in terms of theirperformance – and lag behindtheir European rivals in terms oflevels of GDP per capitaachieved.Cities do not work in isolation –the networks and interactionsbetween them are important.Note: Regional GVA not adjusted for inflationSource: ONS, Regional Economic Indicators - March 2013http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regional-trends/regional-economic-indicators/march-2013/sty---infographic-summary.htmlGrowth in output (nominal Gross Value Added) 2007-2011
  • 16. 16Future challenges and opportunitiesForesight Future of Cities Project, June 2013• Demography - Ageing population• Economic competitiveness• Governance• Climate change• Technology• Sustainability – energy, waste,resilience• International competition• Network of citiesKey Questions:What are the key enablers of successfor different cities?What are their most importantdecisions in preparing for the future?Source data: ONS (2010)UK population change 1999-2009 by local authority
  • 17. Foresight – Future of Cities Project• Public policy is delivered via cities,which are centres of innovation andgrowth• Foresight project will take a crossgovernment interdisciplinaryapproach, building on existing work.• Aim to provide a holisticunderstanding of the challenges andopportunities UK cities will face in thefuture• Seeking input in order to shapeproject and focus outputs on mostimportant questions facing policymakersFlooding &Coastal DefenceLand Use FuturesSustainableEnergy & the BuiltEnvironmentExamples of previous projects17 Foresight Future of Cities Project, June 2013
  • 18. http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresightiStockphoto
  • 19. Foresight would like acknowledge UCL Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis and specifically thank Pete Ferguson andRobin Edwards for their support in developing this slide pack.Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material.We apologise for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any correctionsthat should be incorporated in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through enquiries@bis.gsi.gov.uk .Foresight ProjectFuture of CitiesPresentation made to the Foundation for Science and Technology discussion onCities of the future – science, innovation and city management, June 2013Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government