Consequences of global warming and climate change

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Global climate change Refers to changes in any aspects of the earth’s climate including temperature, precipitation and storm intensity and patterns. …

Global climate change Refers to changes in any aspects of the earth’s climate including temperature, precipitation and storm intensity and patterns.
Global warming is an increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.

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  • 1. Consequences of GlobalWarming and climate change Presented by Dr. B. Victor., Ph. D Email : bonfiliusvictor@gmail.com Blog: bonvictor.blogspot.com
  • 2. Presentation outline Global warming, climate change-definitions Human impact on planet earth. Global environmental degradation-causes, evidences and progression. Greenhouse earth-gases, effects and history. Carbon dioxide levels, sources and contributions. Global warming-concept, indicators, factors, critical targets and impacts. Ozone depletion – impacts, photochemical smog episodes. Global climate change-indicators, health impacts
  • 3. Voices about globalclimate change  “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” -Mark Twain, 1897  "The warnings about global warming have been extremely clear for a long time. We are facing a global climate crisis.“ -Al Gore
  • 4. What is global climatechange and global warming?
  • 5. Definitions of Global warmingand climate changeGlobal warming: Climate change:  an increase in Earth’s  a long-term change average surface in the Earth’s climate, temperature due to or of a region on rising levels of Earth. greenhouse gases. .
  • 6. Human impact on the earth
  • 7. Global environmentaldegradation
  • 8. Causes of globalenvironmental problems Population growth Human Environmental impact crisis Pe rc ap it ac y on og su ol m pti n ch o n Te
  • 9. Causes of global environmental impactEnvironmental  Environmental impact(I) =impact refers tothe alteration population(P) x consumption(C)of the naturalenvironment by or I = P x Chuman activity  Environmental impact = population size x per capita consumption x pollution and resource use per unit of consumption.
  • 10. Professor Paul Ehrlich  Professor Paul Ehrlich is a biologist and author of the best-selling book ‘The Population Bomb(1968)’.  Paul Ehrlich is one of the worlds leading experts on population.  He is renowned for his role in helping the world to think about resource scarcity and the impact of an ever- increasing population on demand for natural resources.
  • 11. Paul Ehrlich’s IPAT equation onEnvironmental impactPaul Environmental impact formulaEhrlich’sIPAT I=PATequation Where I= environmental impact P=the number of people A= affluence=average resource use per person T=technology=environmental effects of technology
  • 12. Ecologist Barry Commoner  In the early 1970s, ecologist Barry Commoner published a book ‘The Closing Circle’.  He insisted that the rapid growth of industry and technology have persistent effect on all forms of life. Based on BarryBarry Commoner’s four  Commoners warnings, Time laws of ecology: magazine warned in its Everything is connected to cover story on Commoner everything else. (February 2, 1970), "the Everything must go price of pollution could be somewhere. the death of man." Nature knows best. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
  • 13. Kaya identity Yoichi Kaya  Global CO2 emissions (1990)-Japanese =(population)x(GDP/populatio energy economist n)x(energy use /GDP)x (carbon emission/energy use).  Human impact on environment can be calculated through 4 factors 1. Population 2. Gross domestic product /person 3. Energy use / unit of GDP 4. Carbon emissions/ energy unit.
  • 14. The population carrying capacity of the world Carrying capacity refers to the number of individuals of a population that can be sustained indefinitely by a given area. It is estimated that 1 billion of the world’s people today are malnourished or starving. As the world’s population continues to grow, more natural resources (non- renewable), will be removed and more wastes (e.g. pollution) will be produced .
  • 15. World humanpopulation growth  Human population growth is the number one threat to the worlds environment.  Each person requires energy, space and resources to survive.  The environmental impact of human activity is a function of population, consumption and technology.
  • 16. World humanpopulation growth
  • 17. Human carrying capacity of the earth is not infiniteEcological  Earth has finite resources.crisis  Its ability to sustain the growing population is finite.  Its ability to provide food and energy is finite.  Economic needs allow exploitation of natural resources  Industrialized nations consume more resources per capita
  • 18. Human population bomb
  • 19. Human population growth andindustrial activities  Increasing human population and industrial activities have led to problems associated with the pollution of air, water, and soil.  Pollution has a negative impact on humans in terms of health and quality of life, as well as on other animals and plants.
  • 20. Global consumption explosion  Global resource consumption is rising rapidly.  The resource consumption is driven by population growth and rising wealth.  This ever-increasing consumption puts strain on the environment.  As a result, emissions and wastes pollute the earth and destroy the ecosystems.
  • 21. Changing consumptionpatterns  The burning of fossil fuels has almost quintupled since 1950.  The consumption of freshwater has almost doubled since 1960.  The consumption of cereals has more than doubled in the last 30 years.  World meat consumption has tripled since 1961.  The consumption of fish and fishery products has increased more than five fold since 1950.
  • 22. Impact of technologyrevolution Negative ecologicalPositive Ecological effects effects  Pollution of life support Improved quality of life systems Greater economic growth  Degradation of natural Rapid and bulk habitats  Global warming & climate production of goods changes Better transportation  Depletion of natural faster communication resources  Impact of industrial Comfortable housing agriculture Enjoyable recreation  Toxic contamination  Depletion of ozone layer
  • 23. Industrial processes enhancemore environmental pollution Water Energy Electricity & Gas Transportation InputsMaterials & Outputs Products &components By-products Effluents & Atmospheric Solid Waste water emissions wastes
  • 24. Warming of the global climate The increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere contributes to the potentially devastating warming of the global climate, the so-called "greenhouse effect." Another human impact on the atmosphere has been depletion of the ozone layer. Chloro fluoro-carbons used as coolants in air conditioners and refrigeration units destroy ozone when released into the atmosphere.
  • 25. Evidences ofenvironmental change In many parts Of the World
  • 26. Progression of globalenvironmental changesThe systemic global The cumulative globalchanges changesIt refers to changes It refers to the snow – operating at global falling effect of local scale. changes.E.g. the doubling of Local changes lead to carbon dioxide leads global changes. to greenhouse effect e.g. acid rain, soil which brought about erosion global climatic changes
  • 27. Over – use syndrome of human beings - population - density - exploitation - resources - farming - agriculture - logging - forests - fishing - oceans - tapping – ground water -grazing - grass lands
  • 28. Effect of climate on life  Climate regulates life on earth.  It determines how humans live.  The survival of any species depends on the global climate change.  The earth is in trouble and it needs our help.
  • 29. Greenhouse earth Greenhouse gases have been essential to the survival life on planet earth. They trap heat and cause the earth to warm. Human activities alter the proportion of GHGs in the atmosphere. They add more GHGs and induce more heat trapping by the atmosphere.
  • 30. Atmospheric gases
  • 31. Greenhouse gases (GHGs)
  • 32. Natural greenhouseeffect  The atmospheric gases envelop the earth.  The gases in the atmosphere are held in place by gravity.  The gaseous envelope regulates Earth’s temperature.
  • 33. Scientific history of ‘amplifiedgreenhouse effect’
  • 34. 2 –kinds of greenhouseeffect
  • 35. Enhanced greenhouse effect The atmospheric carbon dioxide is the principal climate –altering gas. Carbon dioxide absorb heat radiation( infrared) from the sun and emit towards the earth. Elevated CO2 means more heat will be radiated. Water vapor act as an amplifier of warming.
  • 36. Confirmation of catastrophicgreenhouse effect The delegates from 114 countries of the UN conference on the human environment at Stockholm in 1972 confirmed the amplified global warming. The National Academy of Sciences, US in 1975 opined that the warming of earth is caused by industrial activities. The scientists of the first World Climate Conference in Geneva in 1979 correlated the warming of earth to fossil fuel burning and deforestation.
  • 37. Percent share ofgreenhouse gases
  • 38. Contribution of gases to greenhouse effect Gas formula Contribution, %Water vapor H2O 36-72 %Carbon dioxide CO2 9-26%Methane CH4 4 – 9%Ozone O3 3 – 7%
  • 39. Total emissions of greenhouse gases Regions World population, Responsibility for % Global warming, %The Western 15 46countriesCentral/Eastern 7 19EuropeThird world countries 78 35 Source: New International, April 1990,
  • 40. Global warming potential (GWP) valuesand atmospheric life times (IPCC 2007) Chemical Conc. In Atmospheri GWP Greenhouse formula 2005 c life , gas years Carbon CO2 379 ppm variable 1 dioxide Methane CH4 1774 ppb 12 21 Nitrous N2O 319 ppb 114 310 oxide
  • 41. Atmospheric levels ofCarbon dioxide
  • 42. Time line of globalcarbon dioxide levels 650- 315ppm 372ppm 700ppmyear 1750 1993 2008 1958 2002 2100 280 ppm 360ppm 384ppm
  • 43. Sources of globalcarbon dioxide emissions Combustion of fossil fuels Volcanic eruptions Land use changes & deforestation Sources of global Power generation & oceans carbon dioxide transport emissionsBreathing & Industrial processesDecomposition ofplants and animals Forest and wild fires
  • 44. Source-wise contributions ofcarbon dioxide Source % contributio nTransport industry 64Forest fires 16.9Agricultural burning 7.2Industrial processes (Iron, steel, petroleum, paper) 7.6Miscellaneous 16.9
  • 45. Effects of increasing greenhousegas concentrations  Increase Earths average temperature  Influence the patterns and amounts of precipitation  Reduce ice and snow cover, as well as permafrost  Raise sea level  Increase the acidity of the oceans
  • 46. What is global warming? Global warming is a continuing increase in the earth’s overall temperature. Global warming is caused by the greenhouse effect. Adding more GHGs to the atmosphere increases the atmosphere’s heat trapping power. Global warming is a serious threat brought about by human activity. Global warming is cumulative and irreversible on a time scale of centuries.
  • 47. Concept of global warming  Global warming since 1900 is absolutely certain.  Greenhouse gases have increased from human activity.  Sea level is rising and snow and ice cover is decreasing.  In 2007, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that there is a 90% probability that human activity is causing the warming.  Many scientists feel that the consequences of global warming is irreversible.
  • 48. 10-indicators ofwarming of planet earth
  • 49. Factors influencingglobal warming
  • 50. Critical targets ofglobal warmingTargets % impactOcean 93.4Atmosphere 02.3Continents 02.1Glaciers and ice caps 00.9Arctic sea ice 00.8Greenland ice sheet 00.2Antarctica ice sheet 00.2
  • 51. National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration-Fourth Assessment Report by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Earth’s average surface temperature has increased by more than 1.4°F (0.8°C) over the past 100 years By the end of the 21st century, carbon dioxide concentration will increase from 490 to 1260 ppm. Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1.7 mm/year over the past 100 years. Global sea level rose about 17 cms in the last century Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Glaciers and ice caps are retreating everywhere around the world —in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent.
  • 52. Impact of Global warming 1. Frequent temperature extremes ( killer heat waves). 2. Changing rainfall patterns. 3. Rise in sea levels. 4. Frequent storms and coastal flooding 5. Changes in regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies 6. Drought 7. Food shortages due to shift in agricultural food production 8. Greater warming near the poles 9. Air pollution made worse by warming. 10. Asthma, bronchitis, emphysema complications 11. Expansion of Deserts into existing rangelands. 12. Unable to contain spread of infectious diseases
  • 53. Negative Impacts of global Warming  Rise in ‘killer ‘ heat waves during warmer seasons.  Rise in Sea levels - inundation of fresh water marshlands , low-lying cities, and islands with seawater.  Changes in rainfall patterns - droughts and fires in some areas, flooding in other areas.  Extreme weather patterns- more hurricanes and super-storms.  Melting of the ice caps - loss of habitat near the poles.  Melting glaciers - significant melting of old glaciers  Ecosystem impacts - massive extinction of species due to habitat loss.  Increase in pests and disease -Spread of vector borne diseases such as malaria to warmer regions.  Bleaching of Coral Reefs due to acidification - One third of coral reefs now disappeared.
  • 54. Summary of negative impacts
  • 55. The depletion of ozonelayer  Ozone (Greek ozein, “to smell”), pale blue, highly poisonous gas with a strong odor  The tropospheric ozone( lower atmosphere) is considered a pollutant at ground level,  The stratospheric ozone (upper atmosphere) is called ‘the ozone shield’.  Chlorine reactions deplete ozone in the stratosphere.  Ozone depleting gases are CFC, halons, nitrous oxide, methane, carbon tetrachloride and methyl chloroform.
  • 56. Impact of ozone depletion
  • 57. Urban Smog episodesLos Angeles smog London smogPhotochemical smog Sulfurous smogSummer smog (July1973) Winter smog (Decem 1952)Petroleum combustion Coal combustionAutomobile exhaust Industrial sourcesLight-brownish in colour Yellow-black in colourSecondary pollutants – H2So4, O3, PAN, Organics, acidssulfate aerosolsRespiratory distress Lung disease
  • 58. Formation of Photochemical Smog Sun light☼ The term smog was derived from the words ’fog’ and ‘smoke’. The term was first used in 1905 by H.A. Des Voeux. VOCs and NOx react in presence of sunlight to produce ozone and PAN (peroxy acetyl nitrate) breathing ozone results in respiratory distress, headaches. In 1952 the London smog incident killed 6, 500 people . In 1963, New York City smog incident killed 400 people.
  • 59. Environmental effects of ozone depletion and ozone pollution Ozone depletion results in ‘ozone hole’ in upper atmosphere. During the 1980s, scientists discovered a "hole" in the ozone over Antarctica. Ozone depletion leads to more UV radiation - skin cancer and cataracts and depression of the immune system. Each 1% drop in ozone is thought to increase human skin cancer rates by 4-6%. Breathing of ground-level O3 affects both the respiratory and nervous systems, resulting in respiratory distress, headache, and exhaustion. Ozone damages plants, resulting in leaf mottling and reduced growth.
  • 60. Global climate change  Climate change is a critical global change.  Climate change is potentially one of the greatest of all threats to the environment, to the biodiversity and ultimately to the quality of human life.
  • 61. Climate variability and Climatechange
  • 62. 10-indicators of global climatechange
  • 63. Evidences of climate change :Arctic climate impact assessment (ACIA, 2004)
  • 64. Major killers of human beingsare climate sensitive
  • 65. Human health impacts ofclimate change Heat waves can lead to heat stroke and dehydration, and are the most common cause of weather-related deaths. E.g. 2003 summer heat wave in Europe claimed 35,000 lives. Climate change may affect allergies and respiratory health. Climate change may enhance the spread of diseases through food, water, and animals . According to WHO, malaria, diarrhea, malnutrition and floods related to climate change cause about 150,000 worldwide deaths. IPCC reported 250 million more Africans are without potable water due to climate related stress. Flooding linked to rising sea levels displaced millions of people.
  • 66. Long term impact ofclimate change Continental drifting Periods of intense volcanic activity Showers of meteorites Wobbling of the earth on its axis Temporary increase in the ellipticity of the earth’s orbit around the sun. Variations in sunspot activity
  • 67. Future impact of climatechange :Global Projections  Average global temperatures are expected to increase by 2°F to 11.5°F by 2100, depending on the level of future greenhouse gas emissions.  Ground-level air temperatures are continue to warm more rapidly over land than oceans.  Global average annual precipitation is expected to increase.  The strength of the winds associated with tropical storms is likely to increase.  Annual average precipitation is projected to increase in some areas and decrease in others.
  • 68. Suggestions-Think green act green.  Prevent pollution.  Reduce waste.  Try composting of biodegradable garbage.  Use water, energy and other resources efficiently.  Use the natural resources prudently.  Maintain the diversity of life.  Protect the worlds natural, cultural and indigenous heritage.  Support environmental education.  Support local action and community participation.  Promote practices, methods and technologies that reduce negative impacts on the environment.
  • 69. EnvironmentalismEnvironmentalismis an importantpolitical andsocial movement Aims:with a goal to  To reduce world consumption of fossilprotect natural fuels.environment.  To reduce and clean up all sorts of pollution with future goal of zero pollution.  Emphasis on clean, alternative energy sources that have low carbon emissions.  Sustainable use of water, land and other resources.  Preservation of endangered species.  Protection of biodiversity.
  • 70. About the presenter Dr.B.Victor is a highly experienced professor, recently retired from the reputed educational institution- St. Xavier’ s College, Palayamkottai, India-627001. He was the dean of sciences and assistant controller of examinations. He has more than 32 years of teaching and research experience. He has taught a diversity of UG and PG courses and guided 12 PhDs. Send your comments to : bonfiliusvictor@gmail.com