Newid Hinsawdd ac Affrica - Climate Change and Africa - Gareth Wyn Jones, Machynlleth 04/04/14

1. Newid Hinsawdd ac Affrica
Prosiect Maposda:
Management and Policy Options
for Sustainable Development of
Communal Rangelands in
Southern Africa

2. • Paulshoek, Namaqualand, De Affrica:
• Pentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, Botswana:
• Ha Lejone, Mynyddoedd Maloti, Lesotho
[ger Argau Katsi]

3. Paulshoef, Namaquland, De Affrica
Pentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, Botswana
Ha Lajone, ger argau Katsi, Mynyddoedd Maloti,
Lethoso

5. Botswana –– PPeennttrreeffii MMaattsshheenngg vviillllaaggeess

7. Botswana –– PPeennttrreeffii MMaattsshheenngg vviillllaaggeess

8. LLeessootthhoo –– PPeellaanneenngg--BBookkoonngg RRMMAA

9. 2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
SPI
Standardized Precipitation Index for Lesotho from 1930-1999

10. R = 0.624
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Regional Serie
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
A regression of SPI values for Lesotho against the Southern
Oscillation Index

11. Rainfall distribution maps for Lesotho during wet and dry

12. SSoouutthh AAffrriiccaa -- PPaauullsshhooeekk

13. SSoouutthh AAffrriiccaa -- PPaauullsshhooeekk

14. Rainfall: 1999-2004
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rainfall (mm)
1999: (199mm)
2000: 158mm
2001: 207mm
2002: 140mm
2003: 118mm
2004:139mm
Ave: 152mm
•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar
radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation
•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek
record daily rainfall amounts

15. Total number of animals in Paulshoek: 1971-2004
y = -0.3888x + 198.01
R2 = 0.0036
y = -42.97x + 4187.5
R2 = 0.1202
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Number of animals
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Rainfall (mm)

17. Phenology is…
…the study of periodic biotic events in
relation to climatic and other factors

18. Agriculture: timing of flower and fruit production
influences crop yield
Ecology: influence on pollination and seed dispersal
(population dynamics, competition, speciation)
Global change: indicators of changing climates
(e.g. emergence date of first blue bells)
Rangeland management: timing of grazing
influences rangeland composition

19. Rainfall: highly variable from year to year
particularly in terms of month of precipitation
Growth: influenced quite strongly by rainfall –
most plants respond to rain WHENEVER it falls
and drop leaves when it doesn’t rain
Flowering: much less variable than growth with a
peaks around October – Severe drought reduces
flower production
Implications: Resting veld during
October could influence seed production
and rangeland composition

20. The impact of grazing
on flower production
Cheiridopsis
denticulata

21. Rainfall: 1999-2004
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rainfall (mm)
1999: (199mm)
2000: 158mm
2001: 207mm
2002: 140mm
2003: 118mm
2004:139mm
Ave: 152mm
•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar
radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation
•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek
record daily rainfall amounts

22. 3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
24 July 1998 06 December
1999
19 April 2001 01 September
2002
14 January 2004
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Total Deaths
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004
-50

23. Total Births
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004
-100
Total Sales
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004