• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável
 

As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável

on

  • 493 views

Em abril de 2013 presidi a reunião do International Council for Science, que congrega as Academias de Ciências dos diferentes países. Nesta condição, fiz a conferência de abertura do evento, ...

Em abril de 2013 presidi a reunião do International Council for Science, que congrega as Academias de Ciências dos diferentes países. Nesta condição, fiz a conferência de abertura do evento, escolhendo como tema as dez perguntas mais polêmicas, e que necessitam ser adequadamente respondidas, para entender os rumos futuros da energia renovável.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
493
Views on SlideShare
493
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável Presentation Transcript

    • Global Overview of Energy withEmphasis on Sustainable Sources:Present Situation and FutureScenariosICSU’s Global-Regional Integration Workshop onSustainable EnergyMexico City, April 8th, 2013Décio Luiz Gazzoni1
    • 0481216201970 1990 2010 2030 2050GtoeSource: EIA: "International Energy Outlook 2010”22
    • 0204060801002000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100PercentRenewable Conventional33
    • Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037183&contentId=706860920304050605007009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,900198019841988199219962000200420082012Consumption(bb)andR/P(years)Provedreserves(billionbarrels)Proved reservesAnnual consumptionYears to go (R/P)44
    • 0204060801001201401601860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010US$/barrelSource: http://www.pdf-txt.com/xls/crude-oil-price.html55
    • 05,00010,00015,0001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010MtofCO2CoalOilNat GasSource: IEA Key world energy statisticsOther: 120 Mt (2010)66
    • 77
    • 88
    • The proliferation of supportive governmentpoliciesRising costs of conventional energyDramatic reductions in renewable energy costsEconomies of scale in manufacturingClaims for a cleaner environment99
    •  Security of energy supply Autonomy, resilience Jobs Industrial development Financial profit Portfolio risk mitigation Price risks of fossil fuels Rural energy access Climate change Environmental sustainability Nuclear accidents and wastes.1010
    • Thinking inside the box... but mainly outside the box!What?1111
    • 1212
    • 18% of renewables8% traditional; 10% modernIEA (1993) = 10% RE in 203050% of new electricity fromRE in 2011Sustained Growth (Shell) =50% RE in 2050IEA (2011) =35% RE in20501313
    • 0204060801002020 2030 2040 2050PercentGreenpeace (2012)GEA "Efficiency" (2012)IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)IEA WEO New Policies(2012)Exxon Mobil (2012)1414
    • 0204060801002020 2030 2040 2050PercentGreenpeace (2012)GEA "Efficiency" (2012)IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)IEA WEO New Policies(2012)Exxon Mobil (2012)RE will grow at higher ratesMore intense close to 2050Conservative bet: > 35%1515
    • 1616
    • Should consider: Fuel and technology subsidies Environmental costs Fossil fuel price risk1717
    • Innovation +Externalities +Rationalization =Decreasing RE prices =RE costs less to the society1818
    • Countries with public policiessupporting RE2005 = 552012 = 1201919
    • 2020
    • Scenarios surveyed by IPCCCO2 Concentration1 – > 600 ppm3 – 400 - 600 ppm1 – < 400 ppm2121
    • Renewables share on thescenarios50% - for 450 ppm77% - for lower concentrations2222
    • Higher shares of RE will becompulsory for reducingenergy related GHGEmission !2323
    • 2424
    • Probably not soon, but breakthrough lowcost and high density technologies will benecessary after 20502525
    • Widely different visionsMore local gridsIntegration needed2626
    • 2727
    • 2011 – US$ 290 billionRE receives morenew power investment2828
    • From now to 2035 – US$6.4 trillionAfter 2035 – US$ 500 billion /yrNew financing sourcesand models for the future2929
    • Biofuels, biomass, solarWind offshore, hydrogen3030
    • At the moment oilcompanies startinvestingat the same rate ofothers investors, thanthe RE share willaccelerate its growing3131
    • SustainabilityGreen value chainsCorporation green imageSociety trend3232
    • Innovation, scaleandpublic policy are thetripod for the futurelarger share of RE atlow cost3333
    • 5 – 16 US cents / kWhBest projects = < 5 cents / kWh3434
    •  New materials Lower weight Concrete towers Permanent magnet Direct drives Aerodynamics Substitutes for rare earths Information technology Smarter maintenance Cheaper small scale turbines3535
    • Present: 11 – 22 US cents / kWhTrend 2035: 6 US cents / kWhSupply chainsNew turbinesFloating foundationsNew system design3636
    • Home: 22 - 44 US cents / kWhUtility: 20 - 37 US cents / kWhBest projects: 9 - 13 US cents / kWhFuture: < 10 US cents / kWh3737
    •  Cell efficiency Thin films Dye, polymer and organic PV Earth abundant materials Cheaper foundation Cheaper integration3838
    • Present: 19 – 29 US cents / kWhFuture: 6 – 10 US cents / kWhHigher temperatureLarger storage capacitySupercriticalDesalinationAir receiversGas turbinesHVDC transmission lines3939
    • Present: 6 – 11 US cents / kWhTrend to declineEnhanced GeothermalLow temperatureCHPDrilling4040
    • 8 -17 US cents / kWh Fuel supplies Technical conversion andpathways Heating technologies Bio-refineries4141
    •  Biomass gasification Sugar to biodiesel Cellulosic fuels Synthetic biology New feedstocks, like microalgae4242
    •  RE came to stay It is a matter of choice It is a true green energy Public acceptance Innovation, scale and policieswill make the difference4343
    • “We can be almost certain that thefuture will not be a linear growthline from today.We always underestimate thefuture, which then producessurprises.I’m sure that some people isunderestimating the growth ofrenewables as well.”4444
    • MANY THANKSA Global Overview of Energy withEmphasis on Sustainable Sources:Present Situation and Future Scenarios.Décio Luiz GazzoniMéxico – April 8, 201345