0
Global Overview of Energy withEmphasis on Sustainable Sources:Present Situation and FutureScenariosICSU’s Global-Regional ...
0481216201970 1990 2010 2030 2050GtoeSource: EIA: "International Energy Outlook 2010”22
0204060801002000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100PercentRenewable Conventional33
Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037183&contentId=706860920304050605007009001,1001,3001,5...
0204060801001201401601860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010US$/barrelSource: http://www.pdf-txt....
05,00010,00015,0001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010MtofCO2CoalOilNat GasSource: IEA Key world energy statistics...
77
88
The proliferation of supportive governmentpoliciesRising costs of conventional energyDramatic reductions in renewable ener...
 Security of energy supply Autonomy, resilience Jobs Industrial development Financial profit Portfolio risk mitigati...
Thinking inside the box... but mainly outside the box!What?1111
1212
18% of renewables8% traditional; 10% modernIEA (1993) = 10% RE in 203050% of new electricity fromRE in 2011Sustained Growt...
0204060801002020 2030 2040 2050PercentGreenpeace (2012)GEA "Efficiency" (2012)IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)IEA WEO New Policies(201...
0204060801002020 2030 2040 2050PercentGreenpeace (2012)GEA "Efficiency" (2012)IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)IEA WEO New Policies(201...
1616
Should consider: Fuel and technology subsidies Environmental costs Fossil fuel price risk1717
Innovation +Externalities +Rationalization =Decreasing RE prices =RE costs less to the society1818
Countries with public policiessupporting RE2005 = 552012 = 1201919
2020
Scenarios surveyed by IPCCCO2 Concentration1 – > 600 ppm3 – 400 - 600 ppm1 – < 400 ppm2121
Renewables share on thescenarios50% - for 450 ppm77% - for lower concentrations2222
Higher shares of RE will becompulsory for reducingenergy related GHGEmission !2323
2424
Probably not soon, but breakthrough lowcost and high density technologies will benecessary after 20502525
Widely different visionsMore local gridsIntegration needed2626
2727
2011 – US$ 290 billionRE receives morenew power investment2828
From now to 2035 – US$6.4 trillionAfter 2035 – US$ 500 billion /yrNew financing sourcesand models for the future2929
Biofuels, biomass, solarWind offshore, hydrogen3030
At the moment oilcompanies startinvestingat the same rate ofothers investors, thanthe RE share willaccelerate its growing3...
SustainabilityGreen value chainsCorporation green imageSociety trend3232
Innovation, scaleandpublic policy are thetripod for the futurelarger share of RE atlow cost3333
5 – 16 US cents / kWhBest projects = < 5 cents / kWh3434
 New materials Lower weight Concrete towers Permanent magnet Direct drives Aerodynamics Substitutes for rare earths...
Present: 11 – 22 US cents / kWhTrend 2035: 6 US cents / kWhSupply chainsNew turbinesFloating foundationsNew system design3...
Home: 22 - 44 US cents / kWhUtility: 20 - 37 US cents / kWhBest projects: 9 - 13 US cents / kWhFuture: < 10 US cents / kWh...
 Cell efficiency Thin films Dye, polymer and organic PV Earth abundant materials Cheaper foundation Cheaper integrat...
Present: 19 – 29 US cents / kWhFuture: 6 – 10 US cents / kWhHigher temperatureLarger storage capacitySupercriticalDesalina...
Present: 6 – 11 US cents / kWhTrend to declineEnhanced GeothermalLow temperatureCHPDrilling4040
8 -17 US cents / kWh Fuel supplies Technical conversion andpathways Heating technologies Bio-refineries4141
 Biomass gasification Sugar to biodiesel Cellulosic fuels Synthetic biology New feedstocks, like microalgae4242
 RE came to stay It is a matter of choice It is a true green energy Public acceptance Innovation, scale and policiesw...
“We can be almost certain that thefuture will not be a linear growthline from today.We always underestimate thefuture, whi...
MANY THANKSA Global Overview of Energy withEmphasis on Sustainable Sources:Present Situation and Future Scenarios.Décio Lu...
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As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável

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Em abril de 2013 presidi a reunião do International Council for Science, que congrega as Academias de Ciências dos diferentes países. Nesta condição, fiz a conferência de abertura do evento, escolhendo como tema as dez perguntas mais polêmicas, e que necessitam ser adequadamente respondidas, para entender os rumos futuros da energia renovável.

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Transcript of "As 10 perguntas mais polêmicas para entender os rumos da energia renovável"

  1. 1. Global Overview of Energy withEmphasis on Sustainable Sources:Present Situation and FutureScenariosICSU’s Global-Regional Integration Workshop onSustainable EnergyMexico City, April 8th, 2013Décio Luiz Gazzoni1
  2. 2. 0481216201970 1990 2010 2030 2050GtoeSource: EIA: "International Energy Outlook 2010”22
  3. 3. 0204060801002000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100PercentRenewable Conventional33
  4. 4. Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037183&contentId=706860920304050605007009001,1001,3001,5001,7001,900198019841988199219962000200420082012Consumption(bb)andR/P(years)Provedreserves(billionbarrels)Proved reservesAnnual consumptionYears to go (R/P)44
  5. 5. 0204060801001201401601860187018801890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010US$/barrelSource: http://www.pdf-txt.com/xls/crude-oil-price.html55
  6. 6. 05,00010,00015,0001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010MtofCO2CoalOilNat GasSource: IEA Key world energy statisticsOther: 120 Mt (2010)66
  7. 7. 77
  8. 8. 88
  9. 9. The proliferation of supportive governmentpoliciesRising costs of conventional energyDramatic reductions in renewable energy costsEconomies of scale in manufacturingClaims for a cleaner environment99
  10. 10.  Security of energy supply Autonomy, resilience Jobs Industrial development Financial profit Portfolio risk mitigation Price risks of fossil fuels Rural energy access Climate change Environmental sustainability Nuclear accidents and wastes.1010
  11. 11. Thinking inside the box... but mainly outside the box!What?1111
  12. 12. 1212
  13. 13. 18% of renewables8% traditional; 10% modernIEA (1993) = 10% RE in 203050% of new electricity fromRE in 2011Sustained Growth (Shell) =50% RE in 2050IEA (2011) =35% RE in20501313
  14. 14. 0204060801002020 2030 2040 2050PercentGreenpeace (2012)GEA "Efficiency" (2012)IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)IEA WEO New Policies(2012)Exxon Mobil (2012)1414
  15. 15. 0204060801002020 2030 2040 2050PercentGreenpeace (2012)GEA "Efficiency" (2012)IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)IEA WEO New Policies(2012)Exxon Mobil (2012)RE will grow at higher ratesMore intense close to 2050Conservative bet: > 35%1515
  16. 16. 1616
  17. 17. Should consider: Fuel and technology subsidies Environmental costs Fossil fuel price risk1717
  18. 18. Innovation +Externalities +Rationalization =Decreasing RE prices =RE costs less to the society1818
  19. 19. Countries with public policiessupporting RE2005 = 552012 = 1201919
  20. 20. 2020
  21. 21. Scenarios surveyed by IPCCCO2 Concentration1 – > 600 ppm3 – 400 - 600 ppm1 – < 400 ppm2121
  22. 22. Renewables share on thescenarios50% - for 450 ppm77% - for lower concentrations2222
  23. 23. Higher shares of RE will becompulsory for reducingenergy related GHGEmission !2323
  24. 24. 2424
  25. 25. Probably not soon, but breakthrough lowcost and high density technologies will benecessary after 20502525
  26. 26. Widely different visionsMore local gridsIntegration needed2626
  27. 27. 2727
  28. 28. 2011 – US$ 290 billionRE receives morenew power investment2828
  29. 29. From now to 2035 – US$6.4 trillionAfter 2035 – US$ 500 billion /yrNew financing sourcesand models for the future2929
  30. 30. Biofuels, biomass, solarWind offshore, hydrogen3030
  31. 31. At the moment oilcompanies startinvestingat the same rate ofothers investors, thanthe RE share willaccelerate its growing3131
  32. 32. SustainabilityGreen value chainsCorporation green imageSociety trend3232
  33. 33. Innovation, scaleandpublic policy are thetripod for the futurelarger share of RE atlow cost3333
  34. 34. 5 – 16 US cents / kWhBest projects = < 5 cents / kWh3434
  35. 35.  New materials Lower weight Concrete towers Permanent magnet Direct drives Aerodynamics Substitutes for rare earths Information technology Smarter maintenance Cheaper small scale turbines3535
  36. 36. Present: 11 – 22 US cents / kWhTrend 2035: 6 US cents / kWhSupply chainsNew turbinesFloating foundationsNew system design3636
  37. 37. Home: 22 - 44 US cents / kWhUtility: 20 - 37 US cents / kWhBest projects: 9 - 13 US cents / kWhFuture: < 10 US cents / kWh3737
  38. 38.  Cell efficiency Thin films Dye, polymer and organic PV Earth abundant materials Cheaper foundation Cheaper integration3838
  39. 39. Present: 19 – 29 US cents / kWhFuture: 6 – 10 US cents / kWhHigher temperatureLarger storage capacitySupercriticalDesalinationAir receiversGas turbinesHVDC transmission lines3939
  40. 40. Present: 6 – 11 US cents / kWhTrend to declineEnhanced GeothermalLow temperatureCHPDrilling4040
  41. 41. 8 -17 US cents / kWh Fuel supplies Technical conversion andpathways Heating technologies Bio-refineries4141
  42. 42.  Biomass gasification Sugar to biodiesel Cellulosic fuels Synthetic biology New feedstocks, like microalgae4242
  43. 43.  RE came to stay It is a matter of choice It is a true green energy Public acceptance Innovation, scale and policieswill make the difference4343
  44. 44. “We can be almost certain that thefuture will not be a linear growthline from today.We always underestimate thefuture, which then producessurprises.I’m sure that some people isunderestimating the growth ofrenewables as well.”4444
  45. 45. MANY THANKSA Global Overview of Energy withEmphasis on Sustainable Sources:Present Situation and Future Scenarios.Décio Luiz GazzoniMéxico – April 8, 201345
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