Keynote: DWWA Amsterdam

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Keynote for Digitaal Willen We Allemaal conference in the Netherlands sponsored by Tijdschrift voor Marketing and 3MO, at the Museum Beeld en Geluid in Hilversum. 2008.

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Keynote: DWWA Amsterdam

  1. 1. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 1
  2. 2. I usually talk about Creative Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 2
  3. 3. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 3
  4. 4. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 4
  5. 5. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 5
  6. 6. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 6
  7. 7. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • 1 terabyte of data (1,000 gigabytes) • 50 magnetic tape drives • 25,000 magnetic tapes • 100 DASD units (~10 GB) distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 7
  8. 8. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 8
  9. 9. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 • 23 pounds • 4 MHZ processor • $2,000+ US • 65k RAM • 5” screen • 300 baud modem • CP/M operating system distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 9
  10. 10. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 A > distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 10
  11. 11. A > You are in a clearing at the edge of a small meadow. A farmhouse is nearby. There is a mailbox here. A > 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 11
  12. 12. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 12
  13. 13. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 13
  14. 14. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 14
  15. 15. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 15
  16. 16. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 16
  17. 17. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 17
  18. 18. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 18
  19. 19. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 19
  20. 20. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 20
  21. 21. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 service product distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 21
  22. 22. services will become increasingly tangible and behave more like products products will develop sophisticated logical service extensions and behave more like services Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 22
  23. 23. Four laws Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 23
  24. 24. Sarnoff’s Law The value of a broadcast network is proportional to the number of viewers. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 24
  25. 25. television print radio outdoor Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 25
  26. 26. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 26
  27. 27. Moore’s Law Computing power increases exponentially - effectively doubling every 2 years. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 27
  28. 28. hard drive capacity over time Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 28
  29. 29. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 29
  30. 30. Metcalfe’s Law The value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes of the system. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 30
  31. 31. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 31
  32. 32. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 32
  33. 33. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 33
  34. 34. Reed’s Law The utility of large networks, particularly social networks, can scale exponentially with the size of the network. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 34
  35. 35. Late last year the Pew Internet & American Life Project released a study revealing that 57 percent of 12- to 17- year-olds online – 12 million individuals – are creating content of some sort and posting it to the Web. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 35
  36. 36. Creators Contributors Consumers Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 36
  37. 37. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 37
  38. 38. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 38
  39. 39. if this is your product or so service ... what do you do with this? Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 39
  40. 40. Media and the Internet Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 40
  41. 41. television print radio outdoor Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 41
  42. 42. Four point five mediums television print radio outdoor interactive True Use Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 42
  43. 43. "Between now and 2012, broadcast television in the US will grow at a modest compounded 3.8% to $58.8 billion. However, Internet and mobile services will grow at a compounded 14.1% to $72.3 billion. Newspapers will continue their decline at a compounded -2.3%." Veronis Suhler Stevenson Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 43
  44. 44. print radio television outdoor interactive Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 44
  45. 45. Four mediums and a platform television print radio outdoor interactive Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 45
  46. 46. traditional media are great at starting the conversation but very bad at “finishing” the Internet is extremely good at “finishing” and “continuing” Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 46
  47. 47. The corporate website is not a good use of a platform Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 47
  48. 48. = the typical monolithic corporate website (www.coke.com) = the future of distributed functionality Facebook applications Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 48
  49. 49. What can you do with this platform? Physical products can develop powerful logical service extensions. iTunes Logical services can develop into powerful and tangible products. eTrade Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 49
  50. 50. Service products expanding the concept of what services should be Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 50
  51. 51. "78% of US mobile phone users call their network operator first for mobile phone customer support problems or questions," "However, almost half of all US callers expressed dissatisfaction regarding customer service personnel." Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 51
  52. 52. ✓ 20,000+ customer service representatives ✓ 25,000,000 calls per month (half of customer base) ✓ $8-12 per call (let’s use $10) ✓ $250,000,000 per month Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 52
  53. 53. $3.25 billion in support costs 325 million calls per year Cumulative Calls (in millions) Cumulative Cost (in millions) Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 53
  54. 54. crowdsourcing community based support distributed participatory support citizen science mass collaboration wisdom of crowds Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 54
  55. 55. After all, think about what happens if you ask a hundred people to run a 100–meter race, and then average their times. The average time will not be better than the time of the fastest runners. It will be worse. It will be a mediocre time. But ask a hundred people to answer a question or solve a problem, and the average answer will often be at least as good as the answer of the smartest member. With most things, the average is mediocrity. With decision making, it’s often excellence. You could say it’s as if we’ve been programmed to be collectively smart. Suroweiki Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 55
  56. 56. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 56
  57. 57. The companies – or seekers, in InnoCentive parlance – pay solvers anywhere from $10,000 to $100,000 per solution. (They also pay InnoCentive a fee to participate.) Jill Panetta, InnoCentive’s chief scientific officer, says more than 30 percent of the problems posted on the site have been cracked, “which is 30 percent more than would have been solved using a traditional, in-house approach.” launched 2001 - founded by Eli Lilly Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 57
  58. 58. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 58
  59. 59. ✓ if “alternative” cost $500k per month to run ✓ 50,000 calls avoided per month = breakeven ✓ .2% of a given months call volume ✓ anything over that is cash-flow positive to carrier ✓ reduce by 3% = $90mm / year savings ✓ or 1500% ROI Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 59
  60. 60. $43 million in avoided calls $37 million ROI $6 million program cost breakeven in about 6 months Alt Cost (in millions) Avoided Call Cost (in millions) Alt ROI (in millions) Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 60
  61. 61. crowd-sourcing support Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 61
  62. 62. • “virtualize” the phone • create multimedia tutorials • allow users to create and share their own tutorials / tips Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 62
  63. 63. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 63
  64. 64. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 64
  65. 65. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 65
  66. 66. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 66
  67. 67. ✓ reconsider how you provide service ✓ can you leverage new online economics? ✓ what happens if you connect consumers? ✓ what value can consumers add as creators? ✓ how can you leverage your audience? ✓ how do you add this as a product extension of your service? Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 67
  68. 68. Product services expanding the concept of what products should be Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 68
  69. 69. What would you do with Coke machines? 500,000 units (about 1 per 600 people US) 1.5 x 1.5 meters 1,235 square kilometers Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 69
  70. 70. the Coke Network • they have power • they have proximity • located where people “break” • part of social fabric Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 70
  71. 71. over 7,000 hot-spots get a Starbucks Card, put at least five bucks on it and then use it at least once every 30 days, and you've got two hours of free Wi-Fi a day. Not bad at all... Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 71
  72. 72. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 72
  73. 73. • iPhone / iTunes • most mobile devices • cable boxes • Tivo physical products logical products consumer product design all design today Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 73 79
  74. 74. • cars • refrigerators • televisions • all mobile devices • remote controls • home entertainment •? physical products logical products consumer product design all design tomorrow Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 74 81
  75. 75. • OnStar • autos have VIN numbers, will eventually have IP addresses • what if all products have IP addresses? • guess what? people have IP addresses too • what happens when you cross product IP addresses with people IP addresses? • what are the opportunities for service extensions of products? Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 75
  76. 76. Story systems creating stories with consumers through coordinated use of new media Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 76
  77. 77. 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 distribution user interface functionality Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 77
  78. 78. the ambient network television computer mobile passive interactive interactive entertainment productivity connection lean back lean forward lean forward Three screens Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 78
  79. 79. "By 2011, there will likely be 5.1 billion mobile phone subscribers worldwide. Traditional twisted pair land lines will be relegated to the dustbin of history. Not a bad penetration rate given the global population is under 7 billion people." Pete Sealey, ex-CMO Coca-Cola Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 79
  80. 80. print radio television outdoor interactive Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 80
  81. 81. Story systems Holistic systems that properly utilize the true use of traditional media and online interactive media to facilitate dialogues with, and between, consumers. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 81
  82. 82. Every click is a wish Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 82
  83. 83. Great marketers of the future will not be measured by how well they tell stories to their audience but rather by how well their audience tells stories about them. Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 83
  84. 84. Thank you! Applied Design Group web/ www.applieddesign.tv email/ tim@applieddesign.tv phone/ +1.415.258.9575 84

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