future 2.0 ?                  generations     myths, beliefs, religions, philosophies,            technology and its usead...
Are we going to experience a majordisrupt within human     societies ?
•   there are those who think the answer to this is “yes”•   there are those who think the answer is “no”,    because they...
agendaI - 		   The backdrop of our immediate futureII - 	     Towards a new intermediation?	           High Speed Internet...
2 preliminary          comments• Generation problems• Concept of «Singularity»
Generation problems•   2 generation categories: “native analogics”, and    “native digitals”. They were not born with same...
Point of Singularity?• Like in astrophysics, humanity will  experience a “point of singularity”• Our future will probably ...
Last but not least...•   Do not forget that the Homo Sapiens    “Operating System” is bugged•   It is an interest-driven O...
I – What our immediate   future will look like ? • Future is very important, we’re going to spend   an awful lot of time i...
Short story of the         Universe•   13.7 billion years ago: Big Bang. ! Why? We don’t    really know.•   118 physical e...
A short story of life•   Our small solar system – including Earth – was    born 4.5 billion years ago in our small galaxy•...
Short story of            Humanity•   we appeared some 100.000 years ago in Eastern    Africa•   we bred on Earth, not all...
… a couple of majortechnological breakthroughs •   the agricultural revolution (1.0) 10.000 years     ago in the Fertile C...
Why these revolutions?• From tools...• To technology...• Through Science... (positive and negative  feedback loops)• In a ...
Each revolution       bringing wealth…•   mass production of proteins in the 1.0    (therefore population increase)•   mas...
3rd revolution causes?• Nanotechnologies• Humanoïd robots and others• Synthetic biology (genomics...)• Greentech (renewabl...
nanotechnologies•   From large masses of material to the direct use    of atoms… in the processing•   From top down to bot...
A few free web resources• Richard Feynman• Molecular machines• Wikipedia• Many others...
Humanoïd robots• Why humanoïd robots?• Japanese strategy : population growing old,  refusal of other homo sapiens immigrat...
Some web resources• Asimo by Honda• Big dog by Boston Dynamics• Robotised human body parts: Myomo  Towards bionics?• Impac...
greentech• Programmed end of fossil energy• Rise of the renewable energy• Industrialized economies will have to  address t...
Many possibilities•   Eolian, solar panels, hydraulics, etc…•   But the future belongs to photosynthesis (based    on the ...
Some web resources• Nanosolar: photovoltaic panels containing  nanotechs (Google)• E-fuel:garbage in-house energy by using...
Synthetic biology•   DNA : a base-4 system (computer : base-2 or    binary system)•   Complete sequencing of the human gen...
Cost of DNA sequencing
Some web resources• 23 and me• Cost by genome• A real mouse from scratch (asexual  reproduction)• Understand DNA• Many oth...
Going towards a 3rd          revolution ?•    Nanos + robots + bio + green =     breakthrough?•    Improved Homo sapiens?•...
Therefore new      organizations…• Economics, society, politics…• New elites...• In the next 30 years…
II - new intermediations•   How does our 1.0 economic system work?•   Which technologies make it work?•   High Speed Inter...
How does our economy           work?•   Since the 1.0 Revolution, same global organization,    namely…•   Supply (products...
•   An organization and a system both implemented    on the basis of a bunch of technologies…•   … that is highly continge...
Industrial revolution          technologies•   Analogic (television, radio, corded phones, etc.)•   Print (newspapers, mag...
consequences…•   Technologies of the agricultural revolution    involve a pyramidal organization that is still    prevaili...
intermediation between   supply and demand•   is using traditional analogic technologies•   is customer-confusing (lacking...
The 5 types of         intermediaries•   Market•   Information•   Finance•   Operators•   Elected officials in representati...
Example of a traditional chainof value: music (market type) •   Supply : the author of the music •   Demand: consumers •  ...
1.0 horizontal           intermediaries•   The editor (recording, marketing, promoting...)•   The CD presser (pressing, ja...
Value-added sharing•   For 1 CD of 15 soundtracks, costing 15 €•   7 € go to the editor•   1 € goes to the CD presser•   6...
1.0 ‘vertical’           intermediaries•   Information: promoting the artist (press, radio,    television)•   Finance: (pu...
Comments• The editor decides on what is good for the  consumer (pyramidal organization with the elite  at the top : the el...
Are people happy with this organization, or        do they wish otherwise? •   “Hacking”: Napster, Kazaa, Bittorrent… •   ...
new technologies• Broadband (fiber optic) and wireless (wifi,  wimax, 4G, etc.)• 2.0 web tools
Cable HSI: FTTH    (optic Fiber To The Home)•   Asia on top of the world !•   Update on the Obama National Broadband Plan•...
wireless...• 4G wireless is complementary to FTTH (home  and all-mobile technology)• Massive use of smartphones, iPad and ...
Web 2.0 tools in bulk•   Blogs and RSS flows…•   Video platforms (youtube, dailymotion, vimeo…)•   Social networks (Linkedi...
•   Collaborative videconferencing platforms    (telepresence, webOconferencing)•   “Virtual tradeshow” platforms•   E-rep...
Some web resources•   Telepresence here and here•   Virtual tradeshows platform : inXpo (comdex    reborn in virtual reali...
Towards a new international    economic order?
Comments•   The demand (people) is able to publish content on    the Web 2.0 (Web 1.0 did not allow Web users to    add or...
•   … the other thing is 3D printing: will we just    print out the stuff we need at home? Would    that mean the end of t...
so what ?•   Ibn Kaldoun : emperors versus barbarians...•   In each intermediary type, typically the    ‘emperors’ have bu...
Some web resources•   P2P platforms: Frindsclear (credit), mymajor    company (music), twilio (cloud telephony)…•   Self-p...
The whole economic,social, administrative andpolitical system seems to be re-organized by an  «invisible e-hand»…
The Internet will play the samerole between the 2  nd and the 3rd           revolutionas printing did between the    1 st ...
III – Weak signals, in recent        years and for the next             10 years?…•   Cloud computing•   SIRI-zation of th...
• Cloud computing: physicians, local  collectivities… high impact on  administrative cost reduction and  information excha...
• Is a SIRI-revolution taking place? (Apple’s  SIRI, xbrainsoft)… SIRI, The vocal interface  in our everyday lives?
• Smart home technologies. New sensors-  equipped microprocessors… Machine-to-  machine market (M2M Market)… Energy  manag...
• Alternative payment processing,  online payment without a credit card:  Dwolla
• The importance of proximity-based  organizations in economy, empowered by  Near Field Communication (NFC)  technologies.
III. Here’s how to survive and             thrive      Be on the lookout for information:          Sun Tzu, “The Art of Wa...
The First Must-Do• Keep Yourself Informed and…• Keep Yourself Informed and…• Keep Yourself Informed…
How to keep yourself        informed?• yourversion.com• zyte on iPad• tweetdeck (Tweeter)• My blog, my Facebook wall, my t...
The Second Must-Do• Keep yourself trained and…• Keep yourself trained and…• Keep yourself trained...
How to keep yourself         trained?•   Create a local webschool...    Example: Lippi industry company...•   Attend more ...
The Third Must-Do• Test and…• Test and…• Test...
How to Test?• Create an internal workshop open to all  employees• Arrange for startups to do a public  presentation and as...
What else? Let’s see…France 2.0: Work In Progress (who’s           gonna stop it?) • Countless startups… everywhere in Fra...
• This is just a start: our 1.0 elites are very busy  trying to keep their eyes and ears shut  (succeed or die trying?)• I...
• France needs to deploy its Broadband  Network (FTTH, 4G…)• Our startups will create broadband apps,  because thats what ...
An ardent anticipatory        obligation…• In five 5 years’ time, France will have  deployed its Broadband national network...
…and don’t forget        that…• web 3.0 is on its way…• Genomics and digital care combine for  healthcare• Consequences?  ...
• How about redefining retirement age?
Thanks for your  attention!
So, good luck guys...   and ‘just do it’
Jean Michel BillautElu Personnalité Numérique par lAcselVoted Digital Personality of the Year 2010 by theFrench Associatio...
Futur 2.0 loreal english final2
Futur 2.0 loreal english final2
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Futur 2.0 loreal english final2

2,612

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
2,612
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
22
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • \n
  • Futur 2.0 loreal english final2

    1. 1. future 2.0 ? generations myths, beliefs, religions, philosophies, technology and its useadded value and its sharing ... by Homo Sapiens
    2. 2. Are we going to experience a majordisrupt within human societies ?
    3. 3. • there are those who think the answer to this is “yes”• there are those who think the answer is “no”, because they really want to be able to keep their power / turnovers / margins• there are those who think “yes”, but do not want to see that happen (let us keep our ways / uses / power / turnover / margins…)• there are those who say “we’ve already done it in the past, it didn’t work…”• there are those who want ‘to merchandise everything’ in 1.0, 2.0, etc…• there are those who are not in the know• there are those who…
    4. 4. agendaI - The backdrop of our immediate futureII - Towards a new intermediation? High Speed Internet and 2.0 tools: ‘Barbarians versus Emperors’.III - New weak signalsIV - Some tips on how to ‘survive’ ???
    5. 5. 2 preliminary comments• Generation problems• Concept of «Singularity»
    6. 6. Generation problems• 2 generation categories: “native analogics”, and “native digitals”. They were not born with same technologies, therefore do not have the same uses (lynchpin year 1980)• There are also the e-immigrants (analogic emigrating towards digital)• Changes in technology triggers change in behavior, actually you can’t flip that round…
    7. 7. Point of Singularity?• Like in astrophysics, humanity will experience a “point of singularity”• Our future will probably not be a linear extrapolation of our immediate past…• It will probably be something else…
    8. 8. Last but not least...• Do not forget that the Homo Sapiens “Operating System” is bugged• It is an interest-driven OS…• Hence, value-added sharing through the ages has never been a fair deal…
    9. 9. I – What our immediate future will look like ? • Future is very important, we’re going to spend an awful lot of time in there…
    10. 10. Short story of the Universe• 13.7 billion years ago: Big Bang. ! Why? We don’t really know.• 118 physical elements (Mendeleev’s table) were born in the atomic furnaces of the stars…
    11. 11. A short story of life• Our small solar system – including Earth – was born 4.5 billion years ago in our small galaxy• The first life forms appear on Earth 3.5 billion years ago (amino acids - panspermia? Miller - Oparin experiments…)• Emerging from a 600 million-year-old original soup… and Evolution hits the road…• Homo Sapiens makes his appearance…
    12. 12. Short story of Humanity• we appeared some 100.000 years ago in Eastern Africa• we bred on Earth, not all too quickly, as this took a long time: hunting, fruit and vegetable picking…• we kept picking… sick nasty fights (1515, Charles Martel beats the Mohicans at Sebastopol)• besides nothing much happened… EXCEPT…
    13. 13. … a couple of majortechnological breakthroughs • the agricultural revolution (1.0) 10.000 years ago in the Fertile Crescent • the industrial revolution (2.0) 250 years ago in England • between the 1.0 and the 2.0, around 1450, invention of the Information Society with the Gutenberg Bible • and… the third one (3.0?) which is just starting… and does not have a name yet
    14. 14. Why these revolutions?• From tools...• To technology...• Through Science... (positive and negative feedback loops)• In a context of low-cost energy (slavery, fossil energies) These trigger differences (habits / generations)...
    15. 15. Each revolution bringing wealth…• mass production of proteins in the 1.0 (therefore population increase)• mass production (products and services) in the 2.0 (therefore improved standard of living)• … and a paradigm shift : change in political, social, economic organizations…• value-added sharing still unfair, problem not solved!
    16. 16. 3rd revolution causes?• Nanotechnologies• Humanoïd robots and others• Synthetic biology (genomics...)• Greentech (renewable energies)
    17. 17. nanotechnologies• From large masses of material to the direct use of atoms… in the processing• From top down to bottom up… meaning : are we seeing the end of industrial processes which are going the other way around?
    18. 18. A few free web resources• Richard Feynman• Molecular machines• Wikipedia• Many others...
    19. 19. Humanoïd robots• Why humanoïd robots?• Japanese strategy : population growing old, refusal of other homo sapiens immigration. Service, telepresence, and working robots• Replace low qualification homo sapiens jobs by two- or no-legged robots (Foxconn)
    20. 20. Some web resources• Asimo by Honda• Big dog by Boston Dynamics• Robotised human body parts: Myomo Towards bionics?• Impact of robot uses on homo sapiens employment?• Moravec curve• Many others...
    21. 21. greentech• Programmed end of fossil energy• Rise of the renewable energy• Industrialized economies will have to address these changes. Will they be efficient at tackling changes?• Silicon Valley key role
    22. 22. Many possibilities• Eolian, solar panels, hydraulics, etc…• But the future belongs to photosynthesis (based on the fact that plants get 99% of their energy from sunlight)
    23. 23. Some web resources• Nanosolar: photovoltaic panels containing nanotechs (Google)• E-fuel:garbage in-house energy by using your home create• Solar Revolution Project : artificial ‘leaves’ that produce electricity• Sun Catalytix : reproducing the process of photosynthesis
    24. 24. Synthetic biology• DNA : a base-4 system (computer : base-2 or binary system)• Complete sequencing of the human genome already carried out, synthesis in progress• Improving ‘the existing living material’?• Creating new ‘living material’?
    25. 25. Cost of DNA sequencing
    26. 26. Some web resources• 23 and me• Cost by genome• A real mouse from scratch (asexual reproduction)• Understand DNA• Many others…
    27. 27. Going towards a 3rd revolution ?• Nanos + robots + bio + green = breakthrough?• Improved Homo sapiens?• Highly ‘intelligent’ robot sapiens• Let’s not forget the Internet, High Speed Internet + various 2.0 tools... Other technologies means other uses for them...
    28. 28. Therefore new organizations…• Economics, society, politics…• New elites...• In the next 30 years…
    29. 29. II - new intermediations• How does our 1.0 economic system work?• Which technologies make it work?• High Speed Internet (Broadband) + 2.0 Web tools : quid?
    30. 30. How does our economy work?• Since the 1.0 Revolution, same global organization, namely…• Supply (products, services created by entreprises)• Demand (consumers want to buy products, services)• Intermediaries (make the supply match locally the demand - or establish the rules and laws)
    31. 31. • An organization and a system both implemented on the basis of a bunch of technologies…• … that is highly contingent on chosen time- frame• If not so : no market, no social organization, no politics, etc…
    32. 32. Industrial revolution technologies• Analogic (television, radio, corded phones, etc.)• Print (newspapers, magazines, catalogues…)• Fossil energy (electrical grid, spark-ignition engine, etc.)• Road networks, railways, ...• Local store, school, office• Etc.
    33. 33. consequences…• Technologies of the agricultural revolution involve a pyramidal organization that is still prevailing after the industrial revolution• … with an elite… on the top• … and the rest… underneath• Paretos 80/20 Principle (20% of the population controls 80% of the wealth)
    34. 34. intermediation between supply and demand• is using traditional analogic technologies• is customer-confusing (lacking transparency)• is expensive (price 3 to 5 times higher than the ex-works one : distribution, marketing, ads costs) …• How can we reorganize the whole thing??
    35. 35. The 5 types of intermediaries• Market• Information• Finance• Operators• Elected officials in representative democracy
    36. 36. Example of a traditional chainof value: music (market type) • Supply : the author of the music • Demand: consumers • “Horizontal” intermediaries
    37. 37. 1.0 horizontal intermediaries• The editor (recording, marketing, promoting...)• The CD presser (pressing, jacket printing)• Logistics• Physical distributors, CD’s available in stores…
    38. 38. Value-added sharing• For 1 CD of 15 soundtracks, costing 15 €• 7 € go to the editor• 1 € goes to the CD presser• 6 € go to the distributor• …1 € goes to the artist
    39. 39. 1.0 ‘vertical’ intermediaries• Information: promoting the artist (press, radio, television)• Finance: (purchase/sale of the product, copyright fees - SACEM…)• Regulation: elected representatives (copyright law-making)
    40. 40. Comments• The editor decides on what is good for the consumer (pyramidal organization with the elite at the top : the elite takes all the decisions)• Typically, the consumer wishes to purchase one soundtrack only (aggressive marketing strategy, in order to force the rest of the soundtracks on the consumer?)• the horizontal + vertical chain do cost money!
    41. 41. Are people happy with this organization, or do they wish otherwise? • “Hacking”: Napster, Kazaa, Bittorrent… • Liberal governments answers with Hadopi • Apple makes a breakthrough with iPod and iTunes • Megaupload, etc… • Music streaming services make their appearance (spotify, mioozic) • Towards global licensing? • Yet another breakthrough : Facebook…
    42. 42. new technologies• Broadband (fiber optic) and wireless (wifi, wimax, 4G, etc.)• 2.0 web tools
    43. 43. Cable HSI: FTTH (optic Fiber To The Home)• Asia on top of the world !• Update on the Obama National Broadband Plan• Kansas City : Google: 1Giga/s symetric for free for 650.000 homes !• What about Europe, what about France?? Hmm…• Towards new uses: E-health platform, interactive 3D, virtual worlds…
    44. 44. wireless...• 4G wireless is complementary to FTTH (home and all-mobile technology)• Massive use of smartphones, iPad and tablets• The Web is becoming more accessible by portable and wireless devices• Towards new uses (wireless medicine, social networking through car number plates, etc.)
    45. 45. Web 2.0 tools in bulk• Blogs and RSS flows…• Video platforms (youtube, dailymotion, vimeo…)• Social networks (Linkedin, Facebook) and virtual worlds (Linden Lab, Altadyn)…• Microblogging : Twitter and alii. An ecosystem is born…
    46. 46. • Collaborative videconferencing platforms (telepresence, webOconferencing)• “Virtual tradeshow” platforms• E-reputation calculation…• Software as a service platform (SaaS) and cloud computing as a commodity• Etc.
    47. 47. Some web resources• Telepresence here and here• Virtual tradeshows platform : inXpo (comdex reborn in virtual reality), Altadyn, ...• Many, many other things…
    48. 48. Towards a new international economic order?
    49. 49. Comments• The demand (people) is able to publish content on the Web 2.0 (Web 1.0 did not allow Web users to add or modify information contained in Web sites)• de facto questioning of traditional intermediation roles : towards short circuit?• From a pyramidal structure of control and domination (elite 1.0) to a 2.0 “flat” world…• How about offer? Nanotechnology applications are one thing…
    50. 50. • … the other thing is 3D printing: will we just print out the stuff we need at home? Would that mean the end of the consumer society?• 3D bio printing, producing cool stuff in biology. Who will be the winner of the game? Big Pharma 1.0 or “biohackers”?• Etc.
    51. 51. so what ?• Ibn Kaldoun : emperors versus barbarians...• In each intermediary type, typically the ‘emperors’ have built their empire using traditional technologies.• 2.0 Web technologies enable the ‘barbarians’ (start-ups) to take their revenge…• Therethe road, but few bumps (bubbles) along have been a today…
    52. 52. Some web resources• P2P platforms: Frindsclear (credit), mymajor company (music), twilio (cloud telephony)…• Self-publishing platform of “print” books and e- books: lulu.com, blurb.com… or electronics…• Etc.
    53. 53. The whole economic,social, administrative andpolitical system seems to be re-organized by an «invisible e-hand»…
    54. 54. The Internet will play the samerole between the 2 nd and the 3rd revolutionas printing did between the 1 st and 2 nd revolution… but with much more impact, in a lot less time …
    55. 55. III – Weak signals, in recent years and for the next 10 years?…• Cloud computing• SIRI-zation of the economy• Domotics (smart home technologies and home automation systems)• Payment processing• Near Field Communication (NFC) economy• Etc…
    56. 56. • Cloud computing: physicians, local collectivities… high impact on administrative cost reduction and information exchange between different silo’s…
    57. 57. • Is a SIRI-revolution taking place? (Apple’s SIRI, xbrainsoft)… SIRI, The vocal interface in our everyday lives?
    58. 58. • Smart home technologies. New sensors- equipped microprocessors… Machine-to- machine market (M2M Market)… Energy management, wireless medicine, etc.
    59. 59. • Alternative payment processing, online payment without a credit card: Dwolla
    60. 60. • The importance of proximity-based organizations in economy, empowered by Near Field Communication (NFC) technologies.
    61. 61. III. Here’s how to survive and thrive Be on the lookout for information: Sun Tzu, “The Art of War”: The general who wins a battle is the best informed …
    62. 62. The First Must-Do• Keep Yourself Informed and…• Keep Yourself Informed and…• Keep Yourself Informed…
    63. 63. How to keep yourself informed?• yourversion.com• zyte on iPad• tweetdeck (Tweeter)• My blog, my Facebook wall, my tweets…• Etc.
    64. 64. The Second Must-Do• Keep yourself trained and…• Keep yourself trained and…• Keep yourself trained...
    65. 65. How to keep yourself trained?• Create a local webschool... Example: Lippi industry company...• Attend more than 100 training sessions• The classes will be given by specialists, having the expertise you need (photo, blog, video, Search Engine Optimization, e-trade...) or other persons...• Anyone can attend...
    66. 66. The Third Must-Do• Test and…• Test and…• Test...
    67. 67. How to Test?• Create an internal workshop open to all employees• Arrange for startups to do a public presentation and ask for audience reaction and opinion...• Make a prototype...• Etc.
    68. 68. What else? Let’s see…France 2.0: Work In Progress (who’s gonna stop it?) • Countless startups… everywhere in France (from the North Pas-de-Calais to ‘La Réunion’). How many of them? • They reorganize our entire economic system and some of them are world-class ‘specialized Google’ (fotolia, wearecloud, smartsy, etc.)
    69. 69. • This is just a start: our 1.0 elites are very busy trying to keep their eyes and ears shut (succeed or die trying?)• In France, heads are bursting with new ideas. The global digital economy is getting in gear, this country can have a good market share…• However, in order to achieve this…
    70. 70. • France needs to deploy its Broadband Network (FTTH, 4G…)• Our startups will create broadband apps, because thats what its all about…• French Broadband-enabled applications will be sold worldwide, when other countries deploy their own HSI network• otherwise… we’ll be doomed to e-death and damned in e-Hell…
    71. 71. An ardent anticipatory obligation…• In five 5 years’ time, France will have deployed its Broadband national network• In ten years’ time, French 1.0 administration will have shifted to 2.0 administration
    72. 72. …and don’t forget that…• web 3.0 is on its way…• Genomics and digital care combine for healthcare• Consequences? Some say that…
    73. 73. • How about redefining retirement age?
    74. 74. Thanks for your attention!
    75. 75. So, good luck guys... and ‘just do it’
    76. 76. Jean Michel BillautElu Personnalité Numérique par lAcselVoted Digital Personality of the Year 2010 by theFrench Association of Digital Economy ACSELPrésident Fondateur de lAtelier BNP ParibasFounder and President of BNP Paribas Digital Labemail : jmbillaut@yahoo.frblog : http://billaut.typepad.com

    ×