future 2.0 ? generations myths, beliefs, religions, philosophies, technology and its useadded value and its sharing ... by Homo Sapiens
Are we going to experience a majordisrupt within human societies ?
• there are those who think the answer to this is “yes”• there are those who think the answer is “no”, because they really want to be able to keep their power / turnovers / margins• there are those who think “yes”, but do not want to see that happen (let us keep our ways / uses / power / turnover / margins…)• there are those who say “we’ve already done it in the past, it didn’t work…”• there are those who want ‘to merchandise everything’ in 1.0, 2.0, etc…• there are those who are not in the know• there are those who…
agendaI - The backdrop of our immediate futureII - Towards a new intermediation? High Speed Internet and 2.0 tools: ‘Barbarians versus Emperors’.III - New weak signalsIV - Some tips on how to ‘survive’ ???
2 preliminary comments• Generation problems• Concept of «Singularity»
Generation problems• 2 generation categories: “native analogics”, and “native digitals”. They were not born with same technologies, therefore do not have the same uses (lynchpin year 1980)• There are also the e-immigrants (analogic emigrating towards digital)• Changes in technology triggers change in behavior, actually you can’t ﬂip that round…
Point of Singularity?• Like in astrophysics, humanity will experience a “point of singularity”• Our future will probably not be a linear extrapolation of our immediate past…• It will probably be something else…
Last but not least...• Do not forget that the Homo Sapiens “Operating System” is bugged• It is an interest-driven OS…• Hence, value-added sharing through the ages has never been a fair deal…
I – What our immediate future will look like ? • Future is very important, we’re going to spend an awful lot of time in there…
Short story of the Universe• 13.7 billion years ago: Big Bang. ! Why? We don’t really know.• 118 physical elements (Mendeleev’s table) were born in the atomic furnaces of the stars…
A short story of life• Our small solar system – including Earth – was born 4.5 billion years ago in our small galaxy• The ﬁrst life forms appear on Earth 3.5 billion years ago (amino acids - panspermia? Miller - Oparin experiments…)• Emerging from a 600 million-year-old original soup… and Evolution hits the road…• Homo Sapiens makes his appearance…
Short story of Humanity• we appeared some 100.000 years ago in Eastern Africa• we bred on Earth, not all too quickly, as this took a long time: hunting, fruit and vegetable picking…• we kept picking… sick nasty ﬁghts (1515, Charles Martel beats the Mohicans at Sebastopol)• besides nothing much happened… EXCEPT…
… a couple of majortechnological breakthroughs • the agricultural revolution (1.0) 10.000 years ago in the Fertile Crescent • the industrial revolution (2.0) 250 years ago in England • between the 1.0 and the 2.0, around 1450, invention of the Information Society with the Gutenberg Bible • and… the third one (3.0?) which is just starting… and does not have a name yet
Why these revolutions?• From tools...• To technology...• Through Science... (positive and negative feedback loops)• In a context of low-cost energy (slavery, fossil energies) These trigger differences (habits / generations)...
Each revolution bringing wealth…• mass production of proteins in the 1.0 (therefore population increase)• mass production (products and services) in the 2.0 (therefore improved standard of living)• … and a paradigm shift : change in political, social, economic organizations…• value-added sharing still unfair, problem not solved!
nanotechnologies• From large masses of material to the direct use of atoms… in the processing• From top down to bottom up… meaning : are we seeing the end of industrial processes which are going the other way around?
A few free web resources• Richard Feynman• Molecular machines• Wikipedia• Many others...
Humanoïd robots• Why humanoïd robots?• Japanese strategy : population growing old, refusal of other homo sapiens immigration. Service, telepresence, and working robots• Replace low qualiﬁcation homo sapiens jobs by two- or no-legged robots (Foxconn)
Some web resources• Asimo by Honda• Big dog by Boston Dynamics• Robotised human body parts: Myomo Towards bionics?• Impact of robot uses on homo sapiens employment?• Moravec curve• Many others...
greentech• Programmed end of fossil energy• Rise of the renewable energy• Industrialized economies will have to address these changes. Will they be efﬁcient at tackling changes?• Silicon Valley key role
Many possibilities• Eolian, solar panels, hydraulics, etc…• But the future belongs to photosynthesis (based on the fact that plants get 99% of their energy from sunlight)
Some web resources• Nanosolar: photovoltaic panels containing nanotechs (Google)• E-fuel:garbage in-house energy by using your home create• Solar Revolution Project : artiﬁcial ‘leaves’ that produce electricity• Sun Catalytix : reproducing the process of photosynthesis
Synthetic biology• DNA : a base-4 system (computer : base-2 or binary system)• Complete sequencing of the human genome already carried out, synthesis in progress• Improving ‘the existing living material’?• Creating new ‘living material’?
Some web resources• 23 and me• Cost by genome• A real mouse from scratch (asexual reproduction)• Understand DNA• Many others…
Going towards a 3rd revolution ?• Nanos + robots + bio + green = breakthrough?• Improved Homo sapiens?• Highly ‘intelligent’ robot sapiens• Let’s not forget the Internet, High Speed Internet + various 2.0 tools... Other technologies means other uses for them...
Therefore new organizations…• Economics, society, politics…• New elites...• In the next 30 years…
II - new intermediations• How does our 1.0 economic system work?• Which technologies make it work?• High Speed Internet (Broadband) + 2.0 Web tools : quid?
How does our economy work?• Since the 1.0 Revolution, same global organization, namely…• Supply (products, services created by entreprises)• Demand (consumers want to buy products, services)• Intermediaries (make the supply match locally the demand - or establish the rules and laws)
• An organization and a system both implemented on the basis of a bunch of technologies…• … that is highly contingent on chosen time- frame• If not so : no market, no social organization, no politics, etc…
Industrial revolution technologies• Analogic (television, radio, corded phones, etc.)• Print (newspapers, magazines, catalogues…)• Fossil energy (electrical grid, spark-ignition engine, etc.)• Road networks, railways, ...• Local store, school, ofﬁce• Etc.
consequences…• Technologies of the agricultural revolution involve a pyramidal organization that is still prevailing after the industrial revolution• … with an elite… on the top• … and the rest… underneath• Paretos 80/20 Principle (20% of the population controls 80% of the wealth)
intermediation between supply and demand• is using traditional analogic technologies• is customer-confusing (lacking transparency)• is expensive (price 3 to 5 times higher than the ex-works one : distribution, marketing, ads costs) …• How can we reorganize the whole thing??
The 5 types of intermediaries• Market• Information• Finance• Operators• Elected ofﬁcials in representative democracy
Example of a traditional chainof value: music (market type) • Supply : the author of the music • Demand: consumers • “Horizontal” intermediaries
1.0 horizontal intermediaries• The editor (recording, marketing, promoting...)• The CD presser (pressing, jacket printing)• Logistics• Physical distributors, CD’s available in stores…
Value-added sharing• For 1 CD of 15 soundtracks, costing 15 €• 7 € go to the editor• 1 € goes to the CD presser• 6 € go to the distributor• …1 € goes to the artist
1.0 ‘vertical’ intermediaries• Information: promoting the artist (press, radio, television)• Finance: (purchase/sale of the product, copyright fees - SACEM…)• Regulation: elected representatives (copyright law-making)
Comments• The editor decides on what is good for the consumer (pyramidal organization with the elite at the top : the elite takes all the decisions)• Typically, the consumer wishes to purchase one soundtrack only (aggressive marketing strategy, in order to force the rest of the soundtracks on the consumer?)• the horizontal + vertical chain do cost money!
Are people happy with this organization, or do they wish otherwise? • “Hacking”: Napster, Kazaa, Bittorrent… • Liberal governments answers with Hadopi • Apple makes a breakthrough with iPod and iTunes • Megaupload, etc… • Music streaming services make their appearance (spotify, mioozic) • Towards global licensing? • Yet another breakthrough : Facebook…
new technologies• Broadband (ﬁber optic) and wireless (wiﬁ, wimax, 4G, etc.)• 2.0 web tools
Cable HSI: FTTH (optic Fiber To The Home)• Asia on top of the world !• Update on the Obama National Broadband Plan• Kansas City : Google: 1Giga/s symetric for free for 650.000 homes !• What about Europe, what about France?? Hmm…• Towards new uses: E-health platform, interactive 3D, virtual worlds…
wireless...• 4G wireless is complementary to FTTH (home and all-mobile technology)• Massive use of smartphones, iPad and tablets• The Web is becoming more accessible by portable and wireless devices• Towards new uses (wireless medicine, social networking through car number plates, etc.)
Web 2.0 tools in bulk• Blogs and RSS ﬂows…• Video platforms (youtube, dailymotion, vimeo…)• Social networks (Linkedin, Facebook) and virtual worlds (Linden Lab, Altadyn)…• Microblogging : Twitter and alii. An ecosystem is born…
• Collaborative videconferencing platforms (telepresence, webOconferencing)• “Virtual tradeshow” platforms• E-reputation calculation…• Software as a service platform (SaaS) and cloud computing as a commodity• Etc.
Some web resources• Telepresence here and here• Virtual tradeshows platform : inXpo (comdex reborn in virtual reality), Altadyn, ...• Many, many other things…
Comments• The demand (people) is able to publish content on the Web 2.0 (Web 1.0 did not allow Web users to add or modify information contained in Web sites)• de facto questioning of traditional intermediation roles : towards short circuit?• From a pyramidal structure of control and domination (elite 1.0) to a 2.0 “ﬂat” world…• How about offer? Nanotechnology applications are one thing…
• … the other thing is 3D printing: will we just print out the stuff we need at home? Would that mean the end of the consumer society?• 3D bio printing, producing cool stuff in biology. Who will be the winner of the game? Big Pharma 1.0 or “biohackers”?• Etc.
so what ?• Ibn Kaldoun : emperors versus barbarians...• In each intermediary type, typically the ‘emperors’ have built their empire using traditional technologies.• 2.0 Web technologies enable the ‘barbarians’ (start-ups) to take their revenge…• Therethe road, but few bumps (bubbles) along have been a today…
Some web resources• P2P platforms: Frindsclear (credit), mymajor company (music), twilio (cloud telephony)…• Self-publishing platform of “print” books and e- books: lulu.com, blurb.com… or electronics…• Etc.
The whole economic,social, administrative andpolitical system seems to be re-organized by an «invisible e-hand»…
The Internet will play the samerole between the 2 nd and the 3rd revolutionas printing did between the 1 st and 2 nd revolution… but with much more impact, in a lot less time …
III – Weak signals, in recent years and for the next 10 years?…• Cloud computing• SIRI-zation of the economy• Domotics (smart home technologies and home automation systems)• Payment processing• Near Field Communication (NFC) economy• Etc…
• Cloud computing: physicians, local collectivities… high impact on administrative cost reduction and information exchange between different silo’s…
• Is a SIRI-revolution taking place? (Apple’s SIRI, xbrainsoft)… SIRI, The vocal interface in our everyday lives?
• Smart home technologies. New sensors- equipped microprocessors… Machine-to- machine market (M2M Market)… Energy management, wireless medicine, etc.
• Alternative payment processing, online payment without a credit card: Dwolla
• The importance of proximity-based organizations in economy, empowered by Near Field Communication (NFC) technologies.
III. Here’s how to survive and thrive Be on the lookout for information: Sun Tzu, “The Art of War”: The general who wins a battle is the best informed …
The First Must-Do• Keep Yourself Informed and…• Keep Yourself Informed and…• Keep Yourself Informed…
How to keep yourself informed?• yourversion.com• zyte on iPad• tweetdeck (Tweeter)• My blog, my Facebook wall, my tweets…• Etc.
The Second Must-Do• Keep yourself trained and…• Keep yourself trained and…• Keep yourself trained...
How to keep yourself trained?• Create a local webschool... Example: Lippi industry company...• Attend more than 100 training sessions• The classes will be given by specialists, having the expertise you need (photo, blog, video, Search Engine Optimization, e-trade...) or other persons...• Anyone can attend...
The Third Must-Do• Test and…• Test and…• Test...
How to Test?• Create an internal workshop open to all employees• Arrange for startups to do a public presentation and ask for audience reaction and opinion...• Make a prototype...• Etc.
What else? Let’s see…France 2.0: Work In Progress (who’s gonna stop it?) • Countless startups… everywhere in France (from the North Pas-de-Calais to ‘La Réunion’). How many of them? • They reorganize our entire economic system and some of them are world-class ‘specialized Google’ (fotolia, wearecloud, smartsy, etc.)
• This is just a start: our 1.0 elites are very busy trying to keep their eyes and ears shut (succeed or die trying?)• In France, heads are bursting with new ideas. The global digital economy is getting in gear, this country can have a good market share…• However, in order to achieve this…
• France needs to deploy its Broadband Network (FTTH, 4G…)• Our startups will create broadband apps, because thats what its all about…• French Broadband-enabled applications will be sold worldwide, when other countries deploy their own HSI network• otherwise… we’ll be doomed to e-death and damned in e-Hell…
An ardent anticipatory obligation…• In ﬁve 5 years’ time, France will have deployed its Broadband national network• In ten years’ time, French 1.0 administration will have shifted to 2.0 administration
…and don’t forget that…• web 3.0 is on its way…• Genomics and digital care combine for healthcare• Consequences? Some say that…
Jean Michel BillautElu Personnalité Numérique par lAcselVoted Digital Personality of the Year 2010 by theFrench Association of Digital Economy ACSELPrésident Fondateur de lAtelier BNP ParibasFounder and President of BNP Paribas Digital Labemail : firstname.lastname@example.org : http://billaut.typepad.com