Water Policy for Food Security, a global conference

1. Water Scarcity and Food Security:
Challenges, Scenarios, and Policy
Responses
Mark W. Rosegrant
Director
Environment and Production Technology Division
Water Policy for Food Security: A Global Conference
World Food Center
University of California-Davis
October 5-6, 2015

2. Outline
 Challenges for Water and Food Security
 Scenario Modeling Methodology
 Alternative Food and Water Scenarios to
2050
 Conclusions: Policies for Water and Food
Security

3. Challenges for Water and
Food Security

4. www.ifpri.org
Increasing Population and
Demographic Shifts
World population (billions)
Source: Data from UN 2011
Population change by region, 2010-2100 (millions)
Larger and more urban population will demand
more and better food
0
2
4
6
8
10
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Total
Rural
Urban
9.3 billion
Source: UN 2011
Africa: Youthful
Asia & Europe: Ageing

5. www.ifpri.org
0
10
20
30
40
50
OECD
Developing countries
Rising Incomes and Demand and
Diet Changes
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030
World
Developing Countries
Source: OECD-FAO 2012
GDP per capita $US (‘000s)
Source: ERS-USDA 2012
Change in consumption of agric. products 2009-
11 to 2021 (%)

6. www.ifpri.org Page 7
Would reduction in meat consumption in richer countries
improve food security in developing countries?
Source: Rosegrant 2012
Economic Growth and Meat Consumption

7. www.ifpri.org
Dietary Change? Water is Gaining on Soda
Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Galloonspercapita

8. www.ifpri.org
 Supply drivers
• Climate change and variability
• Water and land scarcity
• Competition with biofuels
• Investment in agricultural research
• Science and technology policy
– Discovery, development, delivery
– Intellectual property rights, regulatory
systems, extension http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/
images/btcotton_rice.jpg
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/200
40721/har.jpg
Supply-side Drivers of Agricultural
Growth and Food Security

9. www.ifpri.org
Whither Oil Prices / Biofuel Expansion?
 Oil prices are highly correlated to food
prices
 Rising oil prices make biofuels more
profitable
 Global biofuel production projected to
almost double from 2009-11 to 2021
 Cereal use for biofuels to rise by 7%
annually—compared to 1.5% for food
and feed
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jul-06 Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12
Food
Oil
Source: Data from IMF 2012
Oil and food prices, 2006-12
(2005 = 100)
Biofuel production, 1996-2021
(billion liters)
Source: Data from OECD-FAO Outlook 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
EU-27
USA
Brazil
Source: OECD/FAO 2012
Source: Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008

10. Challenges for Water Policy
 Increasing costs of developing new water and delivering
developed water; need for efficient use of developed
water
 Wasteful use of already developed supplies encouraged
by subsidies and distorted incentives that influence
water use
 Depletion of groundwater, water pollution, declining
water quality, and degradation of water-related
ecosystems
 Climate change, extreme weather and variable energy
prices
 Future role of hydropower and multipurpose dams

11. www.ifpri.org
Change (%) in average annual runoff
across the regions of the world
Source: World Bank WDR 2010

12. www.ifpri.org
Change in consecutive number of dry days
across regions of the world
Source: WB WDR 2010.
Longer dry spells

13. www.ifpri.org
Change in rainfall intensity across regions
of the world
Source: WB WDR 2010.
More intense rainfall

14. Scenario Modeling
Methodology

15. The IMPACT3 Modeling Suite
Linked system of hydrological, water use, crop simulation, and
partial equilibrium economic models
IMPACT
IMPACT Global
Hydrological
Model
IMPACT Water
Simulation
Model
DSSAT Crop
Models
GCM Climate Forcing
Effective P
Potential ET
IRW
Irrigation Water
Demand & Supply
Crop Management
WATER
STRESS
Pop & GDP growth
Area & yield
growth
Food
Projections
• Crop area /
livestock
numbers,
yields, and
production
• Agricultural
commodity
demand
• Agricultural
commodity
trade and
prices
• Hunger and
Mal-
nourishment
Water Projections
• Water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock and
irrigation users
• Water supply reliability

16. www.ifpri.org
IMPACT Spatial Resolution
159
• Countries
154
• Water
Basins
320
• Food
Production
Units

17. Alternative Food and Water
Scenarios to 2050

18. www.ifpri.org
IMPACT Baseline Suite
 NoCC – Historical climate
 Four GCMs, IPCC-AR5, with one Shared
Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
8.5
• IPSL, Hadley, MIROC, GFDL
 Climate Change Business As Usual (BAU)– with
climate change, HadGEM2, RCP 8.5 and SSP2

19. www.ifpri.org
Rainfed Maize: Global mean yields projected 30% lower in
2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

20. www.ifpri.org
Irrigated Rice: Global mean yields projected 12% lower in
2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

21. www.ifpri.org
Rainfed Wheat: Global mean yields projected 4.0% lower in
2050 compared to no climate change (HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

22. www.ifpri.org
 Cereals - most severe global impacts of climate change
on prices: 25% increase compared to NoCC in 2050;
50% higher than 2010
 Meat - relatively modest 5% impact (indirect) of CC
Cereals Meats
Indexed Global Prices BAU
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

23. www.ifpri.org
 Fruits and vegetables, pulses, and roots and tubers: 9%
to 12% increase with CC in 2050 (about 30% above 2010
levels)
Roots & Tubers Pulses
Indexed Global Prices BAU
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015

24. www.ifpri.org
Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, 8 September 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union; MEN = Middle
East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean

25. Bioeconomy Scenario Description
 Annual productivity growth increases by average across
crops of 0.23 percentage points and 0.20 percentage
points for livestock
 Water use efficiency - assumed to improve in each sector:
• Domestic sector: average global efficiency improvement = 45%
in 2050 compared to BAU
• Industrial sector: average global efficiency increase = 43% by
2050 compared to BAU
• Smaller efficiency gains for irrigation sector
– Average global efficiency gains = 15% in 2050 compared to
BAU

26. Bioeconomy Scenario Description
 Efficiency gains for industrial and residential water use
taken from WaterGAP model (Ozkaynak et al. 2012);
irrigation sector by IFPRI
 Underlying assumptions of water use efficiency gains
• Efficiency measures in industry and residential water use and
climate policies lead to recycling and reduced demand for
thermal cooling in power generation as fossil-fuel-powered
plants are more rapidly replaced by renewable energy sources
• For agriculture, basin water use efficiency gains are based on
more efficient transpiration and reduced water losses
– drought resistant varieties and other advances in research and
biotechnology
– reduced non-beneficial ET
– reduced losses to water sinks (e.g. due to water-conserving irrigation and
crop management technologies and reduced evaporative losses during
conveyance)

27. Bioeconomy Scenario Description
 Impact of faster technological change - commercial scale
second generation biofuels start 5 years earlier than
Business As Usual (BAU) (2025 rather than 2030);
reducing demand for first generation feedstocks
 GDP growth increased relative to BAU to reflect
increased productivity in agricultural and water sectors
 CGE model GTEM (Ahammad and Mi 2005) used
iteratively with IMPACT to generate multiplier effects
from agricultural and water sector productivity growth
to GDP growth
 Globally, GDP growth increases from 3.2% per year
under BAU to 3.6% per year under Bioeconomy Scenario

28. Total consumptive water use (km3/yr) under Business As
Usual and Bioeconomy Scenarios in 2000, 2030 and 2050
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (2012).
Region 2000
2030 2050
BAU BIO
Change
vs. BAU
(%)
BAU BIO
Change
vs. BAU
(%)
East Asia & Pacific 428.5 493.4 476.2 -3.5 588.8 508.9 -13.6
Europe & Central Asia 100.6 158.2 118.8 -24.9 219.3 121.3 -44.7
Latin America & Caribbean 113.5 160.0 142.0 -11.3 188.4 149.3 -20.8
Middle East & North Africa 72.7 96.6 90.5 -6.3 105.1 96.1 -8.6
South Asia 502.8 608.7 592.8 -2.6 693.3 663.1 -4.3
Sub-Saharan Africa 50.5 100.5 90.2 -10.2 139.5 114.1 -18.2
North America 146.4 184.7 161.3 -12.7 218.6 159.9 -26.9
NAFTA 180.0 225.7 198.0 -12.3 262.7 196.0 -25.4
Europe Developed 48.7 57.9 44.3 -23.4 66.4 40.1 -39.6
Developed 235.3 289.0 246.9 -14.6 331.6 237.7 -28.3
Developing 1269.0 1617.4 1510.6 -6.6 1934.4 1652.8 -14.6
World 1504.3 1906.4 1757.5 -7.8 2266.0 1890.6 -16.6

29. www.ifpri.org
Change in Irrigation Water Consumption
Bioeconomy Scenario Compared to BAU (%)
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
EastAsiaPacific
EuropeCentralAsia
LatinAmericaCaribbean
MiddleEastNorthAfrica
SouthAsia
SubSaharanAfrica
NorthAmerica
NAFTA
EuropeDeveloped
Developed
Developing
World
2050 2030
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b

30. Irrigation Water Supply Reliability under
BAU and Bioeconomy in 2000, 2030, 2050
Region 2000
2030 2050
BAU BIO BAU BIO
East Asia & Pacific 0.754 0.631 0.714 0.554 0.675
Eastern Europe &
Central Asia 0.668 0.617 0.666 0.515 0.655
Latin America &
Caribbean 0.911 0.933 0.954 0.936 0.973
Middle East &
North Africa 0.986 0.975 0.978 0.972 0.975
South Asia 0.706 0.622 0.679 0.517 0.645
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.825 0.747 0.785 0.715 0.780
North America 0.978 0.984 0.990 0.987 1.000
NAFTA 0.983 0.988 0.993 0.991 1.000
Europe Developed 0.974 0.997 0.999 0.994 0.996
Developed 0.958 0.961 0.972 0.956 0.982
Developing 0.749 0.670 0.728 0.592 0.705
World 0.766 0.692 0.747 0.619 0.726
IWSR - ratio of annual irrigation water supply to demand
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b

31. Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals
between BAU and Bioeconomy Scenario, 2050
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Rice Wheat Maize Other
Grains
Millet Sorghum
PercentChange
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b

32. Percent Change in Per Capita Cereal Consumption
between BAU and Bioeconomy Scenario, 2050
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
PercentChange
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b

33. Percent Change in Population at Risk of Hunger
Between BAU and Bioeconomy Scenario, 2050
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
East Asia &
Pacific
Europe &
Central Asia
Latin America
& Caribbean
Middle East
& North
Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
PercentChange
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2012b

34. Conclusions

35. www.ifpri.org
Policies for Water and Food Security
1. Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D
for productivity growth
2. Promote complementary policies and
investments
3. Reform economic policies
4. Implement new water policies

36. www.ifpri.org
Invest in technologies for
 Crop and livestock breeding
• High-yielding varieties
• Biotic- and abiotic-stress
resistant varieties
 Modernize breeding programs in
developing countries through
provision of genomics, high
throughput gene-sequencing, bio-
informatics and computer
 GMOs where genetic variation
does not exist in the crop
• Nitrogen use efficiency
• Drought, heat and salinity
tolerance
• Insect and disease resistance
+
1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D
for smallholder productivity
Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%)
Source: ASTI 2012

37. www.ifpri.org
2. Promote Complementary Policies
and Investments
 Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation
 Increase access to high-value supply chains and
markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk
 Regulatory reform: Reduce hurdles to approval and
release of new cultivars and technologies
• Remove impediments (e.g. restrictive “notified” crop lists,
excessive testing and certification requirements, foreign
investment barriers, ad hoc biosafety decision-making)
 Extension of farming systems: minimum tillage,
integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest
management, precision agriculture

38. www.ifpri.org
 Support open trading regimes to share climate
risk
 Use market-based approaches to manage water
and environmental services combined with
secure property rights
 Reduce subsidies that distort production
decisions and encourage water use beyond
economically appropriate levels
• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies
• Savings invested in activities that boost farm
output and income
3. Reform Economic Policies

39. www.ifpri.org
4. Implement New Water Policies
 Establishment of secure water rights
 Design and implementation of economic incentives for
efficient use of agricultural water
 Policy reform to deal with water quality and
environmental problems
 Enhance water security through on-farm crop
management and crop breeding for water productivity
 Develop energy- and GHG-conserving water policies
 Design and implementation of long term investment
strategies for irrigation, hydropower, and water supply and
sanitation