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Lies, Damn Lies…. and
Estimates
Bhavin Kamani
Independent Agile Coach
Are Estimates Illusio
It all starts as a SIMPLE probl
Reality
Estimation Challenges
Provide a 90% Confident Estimate
for
How old am I?
What is the size of the largest sea turtle ever
d...
Important Laws of
Nature
Parkinson’s Law
If you give a person 5 days to deliver a task that could
be delivered in 4, the p...
Man Hours
Story Poi
Cycle Tim
Cumulative Flow Diagr
Guidelines
#1 Don’t Estimate if you can m
#2 Breakup stories over granula
#3 Create a strong definition of re
Scrum bangalore   estimatess
Scrum bangalore   estimatess
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Scrum bangalore estimatess

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Transcript of "Scrum bangalore estimatess"

  1. 1. Lies, Damn Lies…. and Estimates Bhavin Kamani Independent Agile Coach
  2. 2. Are Estimates Illusio
  3. 3. It all starts as a SIMPLE probl
  4. 4. Reality
  5. 5. Estimation Challenges Provide a 90% Confident Estimate for How old am I? What is the size of the largest sea turtle ever discovered? How many bugs will you have in your next project? What is the total volume of all the lakes of the
  6. 6. Important Laws of Nature Parkinson’s Law If you give a person 5 days to deliver a task that could be delivered in 4, the person will find something to do with that extra day (air fills the container) The Student Syndrome If given too much time, people naturally procrastinate until late in the project, at which point they rush to complete the work, and likely won’t finish on time Exponential Error Aggregation The finer grained estimates you have, the more error you are introducing into the aggregate (the more detailed – the further from the truth you will be)
  7. 7. Man Hours
  8. 8. Story Poi
  9. 9. Cycle Tim
  10. 10. Cumulative Flow Diagr
  11. 11. Guidelines
  12. 12. #1 Don’t Estimate if you can m
  13. 13. #2 Breakup stories over granula
  14. 14. #3 Create a strong definition of re
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