Monsoon phenomena &its progression in India 2012-13 24th July, 2012 New Delhi
Flow of Presentation Present situation of Monsoon Monsoon Progression in the country State-level Monsoon scenario El-Nino & La- Nina effects on Monsoon Discussion on impact of deficient monsoon in cane crop
Major four Monsoon season classification Normal Monsoon - 96 to 104 % of Long period average ( LPA*) Excess (Rainfall) Monsoon season >104 % of LPA Below Normal Monsoon- < 96 % but >90% of LPA Deficit rainfall Monsoon- < 90% of LPA When the rainfall is less than 90% of the LPA and 20-40% of the country receives deficient rainfall ( 20% below normal), then it is termed as a drought year for the country. In 2009, the rainfall was 78% below normal*LPA is 50 years average (1951-2000) – 89 cm
Monsoon progression in India over last six months Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall -1st June to 11th July, 2012 – (-)22% of LPA (-) 36% in North West India ; (-) 22% in Central India ; (-) 27% in South Peninsula ;(-) 13% in East & North East India. Pre-Monsoon season (March - May)- Cumulative rainfall-1st March to 30th May, 2012 - 89.4 mm – (-)31% than L.P.A. Out of 36 met sub-divisions only 7 received excess/normal rainfall Winter season- Cumulative rainfall-1st January to 29th February, 2012 – 38.8 mm – (-)5% than L.P.A. Out of 36 met sub-divisions only 10 met sub-divisions received excess/normal rainfall Post-Monsoon season- Cumulative rainfall - 1st October to 31st December, 2011 - 65.7 mm – (-)48% than L.P.A. Out of 36 met sub-divisions 07 met sub-divisions received excess/normal rainfall
State-level monsoon situation……….MaharashtraDue to subdued rainfall activity in Kolhapur region during last 2-3 days, there may be attack of white woollyaphids in old adsali sugarcane, farmers are advised to remove lower dried leaves and apply Themate@4kg/acre.
El Niño/La Niña Background Climate Patterns in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean It shows interactions between the atmosphere and ocean which resulted in altering global weather and climate patterns El Niño - Sea temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially higher than normal. La Niña - In contrast, the sea surface temperatures in these regions become lower than normal Such events once initiated can last for 12 months or more
Global perspective of La Niña Rainfall increased across western equatorial Pacific- Northern Australia/Indonesia during December-February & in Philippines during June-August and is nearly absent across the eastern equatorial Pacific. Wetter than normal conditions observed during December-February over northern South America and southern Africa, and during June-August over South Asia and southeastern Australia. Drier than normal conditions are generally observed along coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru and equatorial eastern Africa during December to February, and over southern Brazil and central Argentina during June-August. Below-normal temperatures during December-February over southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska and western/central Canada, and southeastern Brazil; Cooler than normal conditions during June-August across India and southeastern Asia, along the west coast of South America, across the Gulf of Guinea region, and across northern South America and portions of central America; and warmer than normal conditions during December- February along the Gulf coast of the United States.
La Niña on Sugar Supplies- 2012-13 The weather phenomena La Nina and El Nino are factors potentially impacting sugar supply. La Nina tends to result in drier weather in the centre south of Brazil thereby delaying crops, harvesting and crushing. El Nino which follows La Nina after the second quarter gives wetter conditions potentially impacting sucrose content. La Nina results in heavy rains, flooding in the Asia-Pacific region and occasional drought in Africa and South America.
Discussion on impact of Rainfall & weather phenomena Impact at major four stages of sugarcane growth period ( i.e. germination, grand growth period, maturity, sugar accumulation) Acreage Yield Recovery Infestation ( Mealy bug at western UP, White grub problem may crop up in Maha/ Kar) Current situation of acreage in the country