Isard bgri 2011 presentation

592 views

Published on

Scott Isard, Penn State Univ.
An assessment of the risk of aerial transport of rust pathogens to the Western Hemisphere and within North America

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
592
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
70
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Isard bgri 2011 presentation

  1. 1. An assessment of the risk of aerial transportof rust pathogens to the Western Hemisphere and within North America Scott A. Isard Departments of Plant Pathology and Meteorology Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA USA 16802 and Joseph M. Russo ZedX Inc. Bellefonte, PA 16853 2011 BGRI Technical Workshop, St. Paul, MN: 14 June 2011
  2. 2. QuestionHow frequently are there opportunities for rust pathogens to be transported: 1. From locations in the Eastern Hemisphere to the Western Hemisphere 2. From locations in subtropical regions to the continental interior of North America
  3. 3. Aerobiota Transport Process Model Horizontal Transport Descent Takeoff Earth’s atmosphere and and Ascent Landing Pre- Earth’s surface ImpactconditioningSOURCE AREA DESTINATION AREA “opportunities” – consideration of processes that occur in the atmosphere
  4. 4. Integrated Aerobiology Modeling System (IAMS) Synoptic Scale Airflows Govern Transport Ultraviolet Radiation Direction and Speed Turbulent Transport and Survival of Spores Temperature and Turbulent Diffusion Dilution in the while Airborne Relative Humidity and Wind Shear Atmosphere Govern Dilution Dry Deposition Due to Wind and Vertical Distribution of Spores in Canopy IAMS Turbulence Modules Wet Canopy Density Deposition & Structure Deposition of Due to Escape of Spores Washout Spores into a Wind & from Canopy by Turbulence Crop PrecipitationTime of Spore Release Plant Temperature & Growth Leaf Wetness Colonization ofStage of Disease Spore Production Crop Crop Weather Growth Stage Isard et al. 2005 BioScience 55: 851-862.
  5. 5. Potential Destination Regions Used in Analysis AlaskaAleutian Islands British Columbia Eastern Canada Washington & Oregon U.S. Northeast Coast California Gulf Coast U.S. Southeast Coast Florida Greater Antilles Hawaii Lesser Antilles Mexico & Central America Northeastern South America Northern Chile Southeastern South America Central Chile Southern Chile
  6. 6. Potential Source Regions Used in Analysis Alaska United Kingdom British Columbia Eastern Canada Northern China Washington & Oregon California Gulf Coast Spain/Morocco U.S. Southeast Coast Florida Southern China Greater AntillesHawaii Lesser Antilles Nigeria Philippine Islands Mexico & Central America Sierra Leone Cameroon Northeastern South America Angola Northern Chile Southeastern South America South Africa Eastern Central Chile Australia Southern Chile
  7. 7. Parameters and Input Data for IAMS Simulations- Grid spatial resolution was 0.083 degrees (~ 14 km),- Vertical resolution was defined by the standard pressure levels (1000, 950, 900, 850, 800, 700, 600, 500 hPa)- One hr time step.- National Center for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 data set for the 1998-2007 period- Each simulation was initiated for 1 January 1998 with the daily spore production held constant for the duration of the 10-yr run.- Nine grid cells (equivalent to about 125,000 ha at the Equator), distributed throughout a source area, were assumed to have a healthy crop and rust infection severity of 50%.- Parameters for the spore release and escape, dispersion, mortality and deposition modules were those used in a previous soybean rust study (Isard et al. 2007)
  8. 8. Frequency of Days with Deposition of Viable Rust Spores in Western Hemisphere as Simulated by IAMS for 1998-2007 Averaged forforOctober Averaged for forMarch Averaged forSeptember Averaged for February Averaged for January Averaged for June Averaged November Averaged December August April Year May July 0.2/mo 1.3/mo 0.6/mo 0.9/mo 0.4/mo 0.1/mo 0.3/mo 5.0/mo 9.5/mo 1.1/mo 1.3/mo 2.2/mo 5.4/mo 1.2/mo 2.6/mo 0.4/mo 6.5/mo 1.2/mo 0.6/mo 1.5/mo 2.2/mo 1.1/mo 2.5/mo 14.4/mo 11.7/mo 7.0/mo 9.3/mo 9.6/mo 11.6/mo 10.1/mo 5.3/mo 8.7/mo 11.0/mo 6.1/mo 1.8/mo 3.9/mo 3.5/mo 0.6/mo 1.5/mo 1.0/mo 4.1/mo 2.0/mo 0.5/mo 30.8/mo 5.9/mo 13.0/mo 22.3/mo 27.2/mo 29.9/mo 28.1/mo 9.4/mo 0.7/mo 1.1/mo 18.4/mo 12.6/mo 16.6/mo 12.8/mo 0.1/mo 2.2/mo 9.5/mo 11.5/mo 2.7/mo 1.6/mo 3.4/mo 1.3/mo 0.4/mo 1.7/mo 4.1/mo 0.9/mo 0.7/mo 0.4/mo 0.8/mo 0.1/mo 3.6/mo 7.6/mo 6.3/mo 18.0/mo 16.7/mo 13.7/mo 9.4/mo 4.6/mo 2.1/mo 4.7/mo 10.4/mo 8.1/mo 3.3/mo 0.8/mo 0.4/mo 0.7/mo 0.1/mo 0.3/mo 0.2/mo
  9. 9. Frequency of Days with Deposition of Viable Rust Sporesfrom Eastern Hemisphere Source Regions in U.S. & Canadian Destination Regions 0.4/mo 0.1/mo 0.3/mo 0.3/mo 0.1/mo 0.4/mo 0.2/mo 0.1/mo 0.1/mo 0.1/mo Averaged for All Months in Year 0.1/mo 0.2/mo Averaged for entire year Simulated by IAMS for 1998-2007
  10. 10. Frequency of Days with Deposition of Viable Rust Spores from African Source Regions in the Caribbean Islands Averaged for entire year 4.1/mo 2.4/mo 0.1/mo 4.7/mo 0.03/mo 0.4/mo 0.01/mo 0.01/mo Simulated by IAMS for 1998-2007
  11. 11. Frequency of Days with Deposition of Viable Rust Spores from African Source Regions in Eastern South America Trade Winds > 90% of days 70-90% of days 7.9/mo 70-50% of days 15.9/moJanuary 3.2/mo 0.7/mo 0.4/moJuly 7.2/mo 5.5/mo 0.4/mo 0.03/mo 0.03/mo Averaged for entire year 2.1/mo > 90% of days 70-90% of days 70-50% of days Simulated by IAMS for 1998-2007
  12. 12. IAMS Model Output 15 14 13 12 11 January 19982423222120 May 1998
  13. 13. Summary of Insights from IAMS SimulationsThe frequency of trans-oceanic transport and deposition of viable rust spores in theWestern Hemisphere : • Africa, tropics – low • Europe, north of Pyrenees/Alps – low • Eastern Asia/Australia – low • Africa, poleward of the tropics – high relatively short distance persistent trade windsRegions in the Western Hemisphere that are influenced by the ITCZ have the highestlikelihood of receiving viable rust spores from the Eastern Hemisphere • high frequency & high intensity deposition eventsRisk of direct aerial transport of viable rust spores to U.S. and Canada - low
  14. 14. QuestionHow frequently are there opportunities for rust pathogens to be transported: 1. From locations in the Eastern Hemisphere to the Western Hemisphere 2. From locations in subtropical regions to the continental interior of North America
  15. 15. 30 April 2010 Wind Speed (m/s) <5 5-10 >10The wind speed and directions are averaged for the air layer between the groundand the height at which air pressure decreases 30 hPa (typically 200 m nearmid-day).
  16. 16. Frequency of strong low-level airflows: South Texas and Delta Regions to designated continental interior regions 1 2 3 0.19 5 Destination Regions 4 1. South Dakota/North Dakota/southern Manitoba/southeastern 0.40 Saskatchewan Wheat Acres 0.33 0.25 2. Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin/ 0.19 southwestern Ontario 0.23 D 3. Kansas/Nebraska 4. Missouri T 5. Illinois/Indiana Source Regions T. South Texas D. Mississippi River Delta RegionUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service April 2006-2010
  17. 17. Frequency of strong low-level airflows: South Texas and Delta Regions to designated continental interior regions 1 2 3 0.10 5 Destination Regions 4 1. South Dakota/North Dakota/southern Manitoba/southeastern 0.28 Saskatchewan Wheat Acres 0.19 0.18 2. Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin/ 0.11 southwestern Ontario 0.13 D 3. Kansas/Nebraska 4. Missouri T 5. Illinois/Indiana Source Regions T. South Texas D. Mississippi River Delta RegionUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service May 2006-2010
  18. 18. Frequency of strong low-level airflows: South Texas and Delta Regions to designated continental interior regions 1 2 3 0.06 5 Destination Regions 4 1. South Dakota/North Dakota/southern Manitoba/southeastern 0.31 Saskatchewan Wheat Acres 0.11 0.10 2. Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin/ 0.10 southwestern Ontario 0.18 D 3. Kansas/Nebraska 4. Missouri T 5. Illinois/Indiana Source Regions T. South Texas D. Mississippi River Delta RegionUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service June 2006-2010
  19. 19. Frequency of strong low-level airflows: South Texas and Delta Regions to designated continental interior regions 1 2 3 0.01 5 Destination Regions 4 1. South Dakota/North Dakota/southern Manitoba/southeastern 0.10 Saskatchewan Wheat Acres 0.04 0.03 2. Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin/ 0.04 southwestern Ontario 0.07 D 3. Kansas/Nebraska 4. Missouri T 5. Illinois/Indiana Source Regions T. South Texas D. Mississippi River Delta RegionUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service July 2006-2010
  20. 20. Frequency of strong low-level airflows: South Texas and Delta Regions to designated continental interior regions 1 2 3 0.01 5 Destination Regions 4 1. South Dakota/North Dakota/southern Manitoba/southeastern 0.12 Saskatchewan Wheat Acres 0.03 0.02 2. Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin/ 0.01 southwestern Ontario 0.05 D 3. Kansas/Nebraska 4. Missouri T 5. Illinois/Indiana Source Regions T. South Texas D. Mississippi River Delta RegionUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service August 2006-2010
  21. 21. Frequency of strong low-level airflows: South Texas and Delta Regions to designated continental interior regions 1 2 3 0.03 5 Destination Regions 4 1. South Dakota/North Dakota/southern Manitoba/southeastern 0.04 Saskatchewan Wheat Acres 0.06 0.06 2. Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin/ 0.04 southwestern Ontario 0.04 D 3. Kansas/Nebraska 4. Missouri T 5. Illinois/Indiana Source Regions T. South Texas D. Mississippi River Delta RegionUSDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service September 2006-2010
  22. 22. Summary of Insights from Airstream AnalysisStrong low-level advection of air northward from the subtropics isprevalent in North America east of the Rocky Mountains from early Aprilto mid June providing opportunities for long-distance transport of rustpathogens into the continental interior.After mid-June, the number of days with strong low-level advection ofair from south to north across these regions decreases dramatically.
  23. 23. Winter Wheat 2010 Soybean 2010 Harvested Acres by U.S. County Harvested Acres by U.S. County Winter Wheat Crop Calendar for Texas Soybean Crop Calendar for Delta Region Plant Plant Head Harvest Harvest J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DRisk of long-distance aerial spread of soybean rust less than wheat rust during theperiods when they could potentially cause crop losses in major North Americanproduction regions

×