2014 bgri abeyo
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  • 1. Cul$va$ng  Success  in  Ethiopia:   The  contras$ng  stripe  rust  situa$ons  in  2010  and  2013                                              2010                        2013   Kubsa  –  Devastated  by  stripe  rust   Digalu  -­‐  >5t/ha  crop   B.  Abeyo,  D.  Hodson,  B.  Hundie,  G.  Woldeab,  B.  Girma,    A.  Badebo,  Y.     Alemayehu,  T.  Jobe,  A.  Tegegn  and  W.  Denbel     Kakaba    -­‐  >6t/ha  
  • 2. PresentaBon  Outline   •  Wheat  producBon  in  Ethiopia   •  Recurrent  rust  epidemics   •  In  2010,  Ethiopia  witnessed  the  worst  stripe   rust  epidemics  in  recent  history   •  In  2013,  There  were  the  real  fears  of  another   major  stripe  rust  epidemic  -­‐  but  this  did  not   transpire   •  Side  by  side  comparison  of  2010  vs  2013  for   some  key  factors   •  Are  the  rust  /  wheat  investments  in  Ethiopia   paying  dividends?  
  • 3. Wheat  ProducBon  in  Ethiopia   v  Major  staple  &  strategic  food   security  crop   v  Largest  producer  in  SSA   v 1.7  million  ha   v 4  million  MT  (2013/14  forecast   CSA)   v  5  million  HHs  –  small-­‐scale  farmers   v  AdaptaBon   v AlBtude:  1500  -­‐  2800  masl     v Mainly  rainfed  with  rain  fall:  ≥   500  mm     v Temp:  15  -­‐  280C   v  Wheat  in  field  somewhere  in   Ethiopia  throughout  the  year   Framers  field    around  Eteya,2013  
  • 4. Area  &  ProducBon  Trends   0.00   500,000.00   1,000,000.00   1,500,000.00   2,000,000.00   2,500,000.00   3,000,000.00   3,500,000.00   4,000,000.00   4,500,000.00   1962  1964  1966  1968  1970  1972  1974  1976  1978  1980  1982  1984  1986  1988  1990  1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  2006  2008  2010  2012  Year   Ethiopia  Wheat  Area  and  Produc$on  (1961-­‐2013)   Area  Harvested  (ha)   ProducBon  (tonnes)   Source:  FAOSTAT,  CSA  
  • 5. Recurrent  Rust  Epidemics:     A  key  constraint  for  Ethiopian  farmers   YEAR   DISEASE   CULTIVARS   GENE   1988   Stripe  Rust   Dashen   Yr9   1993   Stem  Rust   Enkoy   Sr36   2010   Stripe  Rust   Kubsa,   Galema   Yr27   2013   Stem  Rust   Digalu   SrTmp  
  • 6. 2010  Stripe  Rust  Epidemic  in  Ethiopia   v Kubsa  &  Galema’s  resistance   broke  due  to  a  Yr27  virulent  race     v Ethiopia  experienced  the  largest   stripe  rust  epidemic  in  recent   history     v Over  600,000  ha  of  wheat  affected     v An  esBmated  60  million  Ethiopian   Birr    (US$3.2  million)  were  spent   on  fungicides     v Large    producBon  losses  were   observed  
  • 7. 2010   2013   Extended  wet  seasons,  well  distributed  rains,  cool  temperatures   (=  happy  wheat                          +  happy  stripe  rust                        !)                   June-­‐Sept  Rainfall  Anomalies  (green/blue  =  higher  than  normal  seasonal  rainfall)   The  Favourable  Environment  –  Both  2010  &  2013  
  • 8. Stripe  Rust  “Suitable  Days”   (Temp  >2  <21  ˚C,  Precip  >  0)   0   2   4   6   8   10   12   14   Jan     Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Number  of  Days   Gondar:  Suitable  Days   avg   2010   2013   0   5   10   15   20   25   30   Jan     Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Number  of  Days   Debre  Marcos:  Suitable  Days   avg   2010   0.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   10.0   12.0   14.0   16.0   Jan     Mar   May   Jul   Sep   Nov   Number  of  Days   Addis:  Suitable  Days   avg   2010   2013   0.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   10.0   12.0   14.0   Jan     Mar   May   Jul   Sep   Nov   Number  of  Days   Robe:  Suitable  Days   avg   2010   2013   Both  2010  &  2013:  Above  average  “suitable  days”  for  stripe  rust  
  • 9. IniBal  Outbreaks   •  When  &  where  did  stripe  rust  first  appear?   2010:  Assasa  Plain,  August   (early  occurrence)     2013:  Assasa  Plain,  August   (early  occurrence)  
  • 10. IniBal  Outbreaks   •  When  &  where  did  stripe  rust  first  appear?   2010:  Assasa  Plain,  August   (early  occurrence)     2013:  Assasa  Plain,  August   (early  occurrence)   Extremely  similar  wind  dispersal  paYerns  Aug-­‐Sept  2010  &  2013   Aug  wind   Sept  wind  
  • 11. Season  Outcomes:  2010  &  2013   2010   2013   Total  Survey  n  =  1084  fields   Total  Survey  n  =  1292  fields  
  • 12. Season  Outcomes:  2010  &  2013   2010   2013   Stripe  Rust  Hotspots    -­‐  From  Survey  Data   Total  Survey  n  =  1084  fields   Total  Survey  n  =  1292  fields  
  • 13. ContrasBng  Season  Outcomes:  2010  &  2013   2010   2013    600,000  ha  affected    3  regions  (Oromia,  Amhara,  SNNPR)   Pockets  of  stripe  rust  present      (Tigray  &  SNNPR)   58%  of  survey  sites  infected     (Total  survey  n=  1084)      27%  of  survey  sites  infected     (Total  survey  n=  1292)    >180,000  ha  sprayed    Amount  spent  on  fungicides  >60  million   Birr  (US$3.2  million)      C.  15,000-­‐20,000  ha  sprayed     Timely,  effecBve  fungicide  control      On-­‐farm  losses  60%  to  100%      Negligible  on-­‐farm  losses      Significant  na$onal  losses   (>10%  of  total  producBon)        A  record  wheat  harvest   forecast  (>4  Million  Mt)    
  • 14. PotenBal  ProducBon  Impacts   RelaBve  yield  gain   2010  &  2013:   •     compared  to  3  year   avg.  (2006-­‐09)   2010   2013   2010:  High  Yield   Depression  Zone  (%   yield  gain  <5%  [many   –ve])     2010:  Stripe  Rust   Hotspots  +  High  Yield   Depression  Zone   Source:  CSA,  2011,  2013  
  • 15. NaBonal  Cereal  Yield  Gains  vs  Previous  Year   0   2   4   6   8   10   12   14   16   Teff   Barley   Wheat   Maize   Sorghum   2.77   5.03   0.66   15.51   13.67   %   y i e l d   G a i n   2010  %  Yield  Gain  (vs  2009)   2010  %  Gain   0   2   4   6   8   10   12   14   16   Teff   Barley   Wheat   Maize   Sorghum   11.09   5.49   12.18   5.39   11.49   %   y i e l d   g a i n   2010  &  2013  %  Yield  Gain  (vs  previous  year)   2010  %  Gain   2013  %  Gain   All  cereals  –  except  wheat  –  performed  well  in  2010  All  cereals  –  especially  wheat  –  performed  well  in  2013   Source:  CSA,  2011,  2013  
  • 16. Influencing  Factors:  Resistant  CulBvars   S  /  MS   R  /  MR   Unknown   Known  CulBvars  –  On-­‐farm  Survey  Data   2010   2013  
  • 17.  Influencing  Factors:  Resistant  CulBvars   0   100   200   300   400   500   600   S   R   Unknown   391   101   535   240   562   490   2010   2013   Number  of  surveyed  farmer  fields  reporBng  known  culBvars  
  • 18. CulBvar  Summary   •  Between  2010  and  2013  there  were  dramaBc  shixs   from  yellow  rust  suscepBble  to  yellow  rust  resistance   •  2013/14:  CulBvar  Digalu  esBmated  to  be  grown  on   >500,000  ha  (approx.  30%  of  wheat  area)   R/MR   Unknown  S/MS   S/MS  Unknown   R/MR   EsBmates  of  Areas  Planted  (Yellow  rust  resistant  vs  suscepBble)   2010   2013  
  • 19. Other  ContribuBng  Factors   Factors   2010   2013   Farmer  Awareness  on   Fungicide  Use   LOW   HIGH   Fungicide  availability   No.     Or  limited  amount  in   reserve.   Yes.     Sa$sfactory  amount  in   reserve.   Informa$on  Exchange   Limited  amongst   stakeholders   Good  informa$on   exchange   Belg  (minor)  season  survey   NO   YES   Early  Main  Season  Survey   NO   YES   Farmer  Awareness  on   Rusts   NO  /  LIMITED   HIGH  /  AWARE   Early  Warning  System   NO   YES   Integrated  (mul$ple)   Stakeholder  Response   NO  /  LIMITED   YES  (EIAR,  MoA,  ATA,   Extension  Directorate,   CIMMYT,  FAO,  …..)  
  • 20. Lessons  learned  /  recommendaBons   Many  posiBve  lessons  were  learned  from  the  2010   epidemic  &  2013  season.     •   Strategic  recommendaBons:   –  Farmer  /  extension  capacity  building  –  rust  idenBficaBon   and  control   –  Need  a  strategic  fungicide  reserve  (registered  chemicals)   –  Con$nued  &  strengthened  early  warning  systems  and   $mely  surveillance   –  Con$nued  rapid  seed  mul$plica$on  &  promo$on     –  Strengthened  pipeline  of  new  diverse  APR  sources  of   resistance  (+  ayenBon  to  other  diseases  e.g.,  Septoria)   –  Crop  diversifica$on  –  break  wheat  monoculture  
  • 21. Conclusion   •  2013  was  a  high  risk  year  for  stripe  rust   •  PosiBve  acBons,  post  2010  epidemic,  certainly   contributed  to  making  2013/14  a  record  wheat   producBon  year  for  Ethiopia.  Key  factors  were:   –  Rapid  spread  of  rust  resistant  culBvars  that   dramaBcally  reduced  the  vulnerability  of  the   Ethiopian  wheat  crop   –  Timely  and  coordinated  surveillance  efforts,  coupled   to  good  informa$on  exchange  amongst  different   stakeholders,  resulted  in  effec$ve  control  and   awareness  campaigns  that  targeted  emerging  stripe   rust  outbreaks   •  Wheat  /  rust  investments  in  Ethiopia  are  paying   dividends!   •  BUT,  no  room  for  complacency……..  
  • 22. ….Stem  Rust!!!   •  Widespread  cul$va$on  of  Digalu   gave  vulnerability  to  stem  rust   •  Incursion  of  race  TKTT_  (not  a   Ug99  race)  [analysis  CDL,   Minnesota,  GRRC,  Denmark]   •  Breakdown  of  SrTmp   •  Rapid  disease  development  :   first  detecBon  early  Oct  ;  full   blown  epidemic  mid  Nov!   •  Localized  epidemic  on  20-­‐40,000   ha  (10-­‐20%  of  total  wheat  area)   in  southern  Ethiopia   •  100%  crop  loss  in  worst  affected   areas  
  • 23. “Rust  never  sleeps”     -­‐  but  nor  do  Ethiopian  wheat  scien$sts!   The  commitment  to  improve  the  country’s   wheat  crop  con$nues       th Digalu  crop  killed  by  stem  rust   Digalu  crop  sprayed  with  Tilt  
  • 24. Acknowledgements   •  B&MGF   •  USAIDEIAR   •  EIAR   •  DRRW  (Cornel  Uni.)   •  EAAPP  (World  Bank)   •  CIMMYT   •  ICARDA   •  MoA     •  FAO                                           •  ATA   •  Seed  Enterprises   •  USDA-­‐ARS  CDL  Mn   •  GRRC,  Denmark   •  Cambridge  University,     UK   •  THE  FARMERS  OF   ETHIOPIA!