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Update on Alaska
OCS Development
Ninth Annual Comprehensive Conference
on Energy in Alaska
BRADFORD G. KEITHLEY
PRESIDENT AND PRINCIPAL,
KEITHLEY CONSULTING, LLC
DECEMBER 5, 2013
Overview


Setting the stage



Current status of Alaska OCS
activity



Arctic activity elsewhere in the
world
Alaska OCS: Setting the
stage


“One of the world’s largest
untapped resources”



132 Tcf of natural gas, 27 billion
bbls oil



ISER: 68,600 jobs during
production, $63 billion in Alaska
payroll
Setting the stage:
potential knock on effects


Development of NPRA




Pipeline opens up opportunity for
development of regions currently deemed
non-commercial

Extending life of TAPS





Replacement oil as onshore sources decline
A key to maintaining economics of smaller
developments on state lands

Replacement source of state revenue


But would require significant Federal legislation
Recent history


Four significant players in past five years





Chukchi: Shell, ConocoPhillips, Statoil
Beaufort: Shell, BP (Liberty)

Three (and a half) gradually have put plans on
hold



Statoil: Chukchi (2013)



ConocoPhillips: Chukchi (2013)





BP: Liberty (2012)

Shell: Beaufort (2013)

Reasons


“Do-ability”: Cost, permitting, technology
Current status


Shell 2014 focus on Chukchi:
Dec 4 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc will return to
Alaskan offshore drilling next July and will deploy an
upgraded drillship in the Chukchi Sea, while keeping a
newly contracted backup drillship ready if needed,
according to plans released on Wednesday … Drilling
at Shell's Burger prospect is set to be carried out from
July through October, according to Shell's Integrated
Operating Plan.



Subject to …


BOEM approval of Exploration Plan (filed Nov. 6)



Status: BOE has asked Shell to respond to additional
questions
Other factors affecting
current status


Additional BOEM questions (Fuelfix, Dec. 4)






“Regulators at [BOEM] have asked Shell to provide
dozens of additional documents and other
information in connection with its proposed drilling
blueprint for the Chukchi Sea”
Reduced frequency of tests on blowout preventer,
capabilities of drillship, modifications being made for
extreme weather conditions

Shell’s “Integrated operations plan” (filed Nov. 26)


In response to DOI questions raised as a result of 2012
drilling activities



Focused on Shell’s control over operations
DOI “Six Keys to Arctic
Exploration” (Nov. 2013)







“Safety and environmental performance”
“Strong, fair and independent oversight”
“Preparedness” (“dealing with the worst
case”)
“Respect for local communities”
“Good governmental coordination and
efficiency in the permitting process”
“Strategic vision & integrated Arctic
management”
Other ongoing issues …


“Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic
Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska”




Formed mid-2011 in response to approval gridlock related to CD-5
resulting from multi-agency review

Coast Guard Arctic deployment





Evolving plans and funding
BSEE/Coast Guard MOU (Nov 2012)

Arctic Council





“Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness
and Response in the Arctic” (May 2013)
Canadian and US Chairmanships over the next four years

Sleepers (and maybe asleep)


Potential DOI (BOEM/BSEE) rulemaking regulating Alaska OCS
exploration (not mentioned in November 2013 RDC speech, but in an
interview said “first quarter 2014”)



“Marine Spatial Planning” (NOAA)
Elsewhere in the Arctic …


Russia



Norway



Greenland



Canada



Iceland
Going forward …


Waiting on “proof of concept”



Can they be recovered economically





Are there recoverable hydrocarbons
In Alaska, Shell now being looked at to deliver “proof of
concept”

Is it gas or oil




Gas less valuable than oil, already many LNG projects

Competition for investment dollars


Major lease purchases occurred in 2008, just as “shale
gale” was starting to emerge



A number of producers are continuing to refocus attention
on shale opportunities

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Update on alaska ocs development (dec 5 2013)

  • 1. Update on Alaska OCS Development Ninth Annual Comprehensive Conference on Energy in Alaska BRADFORD G. KEITHLEY PRESIDENT AND PRINCIPAL, KEITHLEY CONSULTING, LLC DECEMBER 5, 2013
  • 2. Overview  Setting the stage  Current status of Alaska OCS activity  Arctic activity elsewhere in the world
  • 3. Alaska OCS: Setting the stage  “One of the world’s largest untapped resources”  132 Tcf of natural gas, 27 billion bbls oil  ISER: 68,600 jobs during production, $63 billion in Alaska payroll
  • 4. Setting the stage: potential knock on effects  Development of NPRA   Pipeline opens up opportunity for development of regions currently deemed non-commercial Extending life of TAPS    Replacement oil as onshore sources decline A key to maintaining economics of smaller developments on state lands Replacement source of state revenue  But would require significant Federal legislation
  • 5. Recent history  Four significant players in past five years    Chukchi: Shell, ConocoPhillips, Statoil Beaufort: Shell, BP (Liberty) Three (and a half) gradually have put plans on hold   Statoil: Chukchi (2013)  ConocoPhillips: Chukchi (2013)   BP: Liberty (2012) Shell: Beaufort (2013) Reasons  “Do-ability”: Cost, permitting, technology
  • 6. Current status  Shell 2014 focus on Chukchi: Dec 4 (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell Plc will return to Alaskan offshore drilling next July and will deploy an upgraded drillship in the Chukchi Sea, while keeping a newly contracted backup drillship ready if needed, according to plans released on Wednesday … Drilling at Shell's Burger prospect is set to be carried out from July through October, according to Shell's Integrated Operating Plan.  Subject to …  BOEM approval of Exploration Plan (filed Nov. 6)  Status: BOE has asked Shell to respond to additional questions
  • 7. Other factors affecting current status  Additional BOEM questions (Fuelfix, Dec. 4)    “Regulators at [BOEM] have asked Shell to provide dozens of additional documents and other information in connection with its proposed drilling blueprint for the Chukchi Sea” Reduced frequency of tests on blowout preventer, capabilities of drillship, modifications being made for extreme weather conditions Shell’s “Integrated operations plan” (filed Nov. 26)  In response to DOI questions raised as a result of 2012 drilling activities  Focused on Shell’s control over operations
  • 8. DOI “Six Keys to Arctic Exploration” (Nov. 2013)       “Safety and environmental performance” “Strong, fair and independent oversight” “Preparedness” (“dealing with the worst case”) “Respect for local communities” “Good governmental coordination and efficiency in the permitting process” “Strategic vision & integrated Arctic management”
  • 9. Other ongoing issues …  “Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska”   Formed mid-2011 in response to approval gridlock related to CD-5 resulting from multi-agency review Coast Guard Arctic deployment    Evolving plans and funding BSEE/Coast Guard MOU (Nov 2012) Arctic Council    “Agreement on Cooperation on Marine Oil Pollution Preparedness and Response in the Arctic” (May 2013) Canadian and US Chairmanships over the next four years Sleepers (and maybe asleep)  Potential DOI (BOEM/BSEE) rulemaking regulating Alaska OCS exploration (not mentioned in November 2013 RDC speech, but in an interview said “first quarter 2014”)  “Marine Spatial Planning” (NOAA)
  • 10. Elsewhere in the Arctic …  Russia  Norway  Greenland  Canada  Iceland
  • 11. Going forward …  Waiting on “proof of concept”   Can they be recovered economically   Are there recoverable hydrocarbons In Alaska, Shell now being looked at to deliver “proof of concept” Is it gas or oil   Gas less valuable than oil, already many LNG projects Competition for investment dollars  Major lease purchases occurred in 2008, just as “shale gale” was starting to emerge  A number of producers are continuing to refocus attention on shale opportunities