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Mobile scale and the discovery problem: mobile social and context

Mobile scale and the discovery problem: mobile social and context

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http://blog.everything.me 590
https://twitter.com 239
http://feedly.com 121
http://socialmedia.biz 87
http://localhost 78
http://feeds.feedburner.com 43
http://tapiphany.org 39
http://10.0.0.131 33
http://news.google.com 23
http://mobile.tumblr.com 14
http://newsblur.com 13
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http://www.linkedin.com 13
http://digg.com 7
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https://www.rebelmouse.com 6
https://www.blogger.com 4
http://clients.revelator.net 4
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  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
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  • Thank you, Thank you!
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  • As always, very insightful Benedict. If someone could solve the problem of discovery use the pointers on all 3 axis, Location, diary & identity, will be next billion $ company.
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  • Clarity.
    Thank you for sharing Benedict.
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  • Amazing report and research. Thank you for sharing, Benedict.

    The mobile-social scale was one of the biggest takeaways for me.
    I think it will be absolutely vital in the future for marketers to bridge bridge the gap between social and mobile environments. Right now, many companies and marketers silo those efforts.
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2014 02 incontext 2014 02 incontext Presentation Transcript

  • Mobile, context and discovery ! February 2014 ! Benedict Evans @benedictevans www.ben-evans.com
  • Mobile scale Discovery 2
  • The future is mobile Global annual unit sales (m) 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 1995 PCs 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Smartphones and tablets 3 Source: Enders Analysis
  • Mobile overtaking PC install base Global active install base (m) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Jun-2007 PCs Jun-2008 Jun-2009 Jun-2010 iPhone & Android smartphones 4 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Smartphones + tablets Source: Enders Analysis
  • Category conversion Global mobile handset sales (m) 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jun-2007 Jun-2008 Smart Jun-2009 Jun-2010 Jun-2011 Jun-2012 Jun-2013 Feature 5 Source: Enders Analysis
  • Industry scale 2012 global revenue ($bn) Mobile networks Advertising Mobile phones PCs Apple Books Online advertising Amazon Google Watches Recorded music Facebook Twitter 0 250 500 6 750 1,000 1,250 Source: Zenith, Apple, Amazon, Google (excludes Motorola), Facebook, Enders Analysis, FSWI
  • The world in 2017 2017 forecast base (m) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Population 2013 Adults Literate adults Mobile Smart phones PCs Tablets Growth to 2017 7 Source: GSMA, World Bank, Enders Analysis
  • Fundamental change • Mobile was always much bigger than tech, but always separate • Smartphones mean the Technology and Mobile worlds merge • Internet, Media • Tablets • This & TV are being dragged along accelerate the change is changing everything 8
  • Fundamental change in scale Mobile industry PC industry • 315m • 1.4bn • 1.7bn to 1.6bn units in use • Replaced phones sold in 2012 • 3.5bn PCs sold in 2013 to 4bn mobile users • Replaced every 4-5 years • One • Data every 2 years per person plan penetration/pricing is the real limit to growth 9
  • Fundamental change in use Mobile internet PC internet • Personal • Shared, or used at work and locked-down • Semi-portable • Web • Taken at best everywhere • Web, web search, apps, social, location, service integration, prediction, APIs, image recognition, local wireless… and web search 10
  • What does mass mobile internet use really mean? From this… 11
  • …to this “I love reading about TV soaps so I got the app on my phone” 12
  • Geographic variation Facebook smartphone users by % of the base, November 2013 100 75 50 25 0 USA iPhone UK Samsung Android Spain Indonesia Other Android 13 Brazil Blackberry India WP Source: Facebook, Enders Analysis
  • Blurring definitions Estimated Android user base, August 2013 (%) Global South Korea 0 20 Small (<3.5") Small tablets (7-8.4") 40 60 Medium (3.5-4.9") Large tablets (8.5"+) 14 80 100 Phablets (5-6.9") Source: Flurry
  • Glass is eating the world Global LCD screen sales (billion square feet) 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 15 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Corning
  • Mobile scale Discovery 16
  • This scaled pretty well 17
  • This didn’t 18
  • The discovery problem Mobile Desktop • “Internet’ meant • Lots • Pagerank the web • But of early experiments much more than the web • No good model for app stores, never mind all the other stuff • But the same basic interaction model for 15-20 years • Pagerank + Facebook • ‘Pre + Facebook 19 Pagerank’
  • Is this scaling? Stated cumulative app downloads (bn) 60 45 30 15 0 Jan-09 Jan-10 iOS Jan-11 Jan-12 Android 20 Jan-13 Dec-13
  • Nothing is settled yet • “I installed an app on my Android smartphone” • “Installed” an “app”? Web social platforms… • “Android”? apps, cards, APIs, push notifications, Forks, Google Play Services, Chrome… • “Smartphone?” • Coding language matters less than user flow and discovery 21
  • Different focus for innovation Apple Google • Integrated software hardware & • Systemic fragmentation, little hardware control • Fingerprints, Bluetooth, • Google Now, Maps, Plus, semantic search etc • Move • Move Airdrop, 64 bit etc innovation down the stack (hard for Google) • Directed innovation up the stack (hard for Apple) discovery (iBeacon) • Predictive 22 discovery (Now)
  • What do you want? I know what I want Google I didn’t know I wanted that I’m bored ? Facebook, Buzzfeed, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc 23
  • • Fixing App Store search is an execution problem • “I had no idea that app (service, site, book, song) existed” is a structural problem 24
  • The problem: relevance, intent, discovery • Search: I • News want X feed: My friend is interested in X • Mobile adds two more: • Social messaging: Your friend wanted you to see X • Context: We think you need/want/care about X 25
  • Mobile social scale Mobile social messaging users (m) 900 750 600 450 300 150 0 FB WhatsAppWeChat Twitter Monthly active Line Instagram Skype Viber Kakao Kik Registered 26 Source: Companies
  • Smartphones are inherently social, unlike the desktop web • Smartphone • Photo • Push address book is a ready-made social graph library is open to all apps notifications remove the need to check multiple sites • Home screen icons are easier to switch between than websites • People dump history 27
  • Facebook is one of many UK 15-24 year old mobile users, May 2013 11% 21% Two thirds are using Facebook on mobile… 10% 10% 48% Facebook No social apps Facebook and other social apps No smartphone 28 But half are using other apps as well Other social apps, no Facebook Source: Enders Analysis
  • Mobile social as platform 29
  • Throwing sheep at your friends? 30
  • Cards as content packets - social as discovery 31
  • Two trends for content and discovery Atomised content App silos • Split content into individual packets that can be routed across multiple networks • Tablet apps can get 30 minute sessions • Very tough to do SEO, SEM, acquisition data, sharing, social • Pinterest, Tumblr, Twitter cards, Line, Kik, Facebook embeds • Deep • Every piece of content is the home page • Tough linking in very early stages acquisition, tough reengagement 32
  • “A computer shouldn’t ask you a question that it should know the answer to” 33
  • What does your phone know? Location Yelp, Uber, Hailo, Maps Diary Identity Aviate, Sunrise, Now Payment, loyalty, tickets 34
  • Pre-dreadnought 35
  • Context • What should your phone know? • What questions can it stop asking? • When can it stop asking you which icons you want to see? • When can you stop reading 50 blogs to find something great? • What can be done once the cloud can collect and analyse how 2bn people use their ‘phones’? 36
  • Uncanny valley? 37
  • Needs to break into mainstream 38
  • Ecosystem cohorts Value and engagement High end devices, engaged users. Mostly iPhone Midrange Android, some iPhone - engaged, but spending less Symbian, featurephones, much low-end Android: little engagement yet User base 39
  • Ecosystem cohorts? Active smartphones, Q2 2013 Often highly engaged but hard for foreigners to address 2% 23% Mostly highly engaged and high value 20% 12% Lower average engagement, slowly increasing iPhone Android China 100-150m highly engaged users value unclear 43% Premium Android users Windows Phone 40 Other Android users Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, Enders Analysis
  • Unbundling by purpose 41 Source: Andrew Parker
  • Unbundling by use case 42
  • 43